Handicapping 2017 Win Totals
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
CG Technology sent out its opening numbers for 2017 college football season win totals last Thursday. Alabama and Ohio State had the highest numbers at 10.5 (-150 ‘over’) and 10 (-125 ‘over’), respectively. Six teams had totals of 9.5 at varying odds, including Oklahoma (-145 ‘over’), FSU (-130 ‘over’), Penn State (-125 ‘under’), Wisconsin (-125 ‘over’), USC (-135 ‘over’) and Washington (flat, -115 either way).
Alabama has won at least 11 regular-season games – thus cashing a season win total of 10.5 – for six consecutive years, including a 12-0 mark in 2016. Remember, season win totals are graded by regular-season contests only, so conference-championship games and bowls don’t apply to these wagers.
The Crimson Tide returns six starters on each side of the ball, including 60 percent of its starters on the offensive line, QB Jalen Hurts, WR Calvin Ridley and RBs Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough. The question mark on offense is new coordinator Brian Daboll, who replaces Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian, who bolted for new jobs at Florida Atlantic and with the Atlanta Falcons. Daboll joins Nick Saban from Bill Belichick’s staff in New England.
Alabama plays Tennessee (at home) and Vanderbilt (in Nashville) from the SEC East, while its non-conference slate includes FSU (in Atlanta at the Mercedes Benz Dome) and home games vs. Fresno State, Colorado State and Mercer.
Ohio State has won at least 11 regular-season games in all five years of Urban Meyer’s tenure. The Buckeyes bring back eight starters on offense and seven on defense from an 11-2 squad that was pounded by Clemson (31-0) in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Meyer’s team went +15 in turnover margin in 2016. J.T. Barrett threw for 2,555 yards with a 24/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Barrett is back for his senior campaign and has a sophomore RB in Mike Weber, who rushed for 1,096 yards and nine touchdowns as a freshman.
The Buckeyes play non-conference contests at home against Oklahoma, Army and UNLV. They have to go on the road to take on Big Ten West foes Nebraska and Iowa, but get Illinois at The ‘Shoe.
Oklahoma finished 2016 with 10 consecutive victories, including a 35-19 win over Auburn at the Sugar Bowl. The Sooners have won at least 10 regular-season games in four of the last five years. They return nine starters on offense and six on defense.
OU hosts UTEP and Tulane in non-conference play. Between those contests, Bob Stoops’s team will be in revenge mode when it travels to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes, who smashed the Sooners by a 45-24 count in Norman last season.
OU’s Baker Mayfield is back as a leading Heisman Trophy candidate, but he’ll be without star skill players Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine and DeDe Westbrook. Mayfield currently has the second-shortest Heisman odds (+750) at Sportsbook.ag.
Florida State was eliminated from the CFP picture on Oct. 1 last year when UNC won a 37-35 decision on a walk-off field goal from 54 yards out to hand the Seminoles their second defeat. They had previously been destroyed 63-20 by Lamar Jackson and Co. at Louisville.
Jimbo Fisher’s squad returns five starters on offense and nine on defense. The ‘D’ wasn’t as salty as usual in ’16. In fact, this unit finished ninth in the ACC in scoring defense and lost DeMarcus Walker, the departed DE who recorded 16 sacks. FSU’s 33-32 win over Michigan at the Orange Bowl salvaged the season and gave the ‘Noles a 10-win year.
FSU has non-conference home contests vs. ULM and Delaware State, but it opens the year in Atlanta vs. Alabama and closes the regular season at Florida. In ACC play, the ‘Noles have to play at Clemson on Nov. 11 and heads to Boston College on a short week for a potential cold-weather Friday night game the week after facing Louisville in revenge mode at home.
I was surprised James Franklin struggled in his first two season at Penn State, especially after the shocking and astounding success he enjoyed at Vanderbilt. Nevertheless, the Nittany Lions turned the corner in ’16 by winning the Big Ten and compiling an 11-3 record.
PSU won nine in a row after a 2-2 start, beating Wisconsin 38-31 in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Nittany Lions lost a pair of heartbreakers, falling 42-39 at Pittsburgh and 52-49 vs. Southern Cal in one of the greatest games in Rose Bowl history.
Franklin’s program appears poised for another big year with 10 starters back on offense and six on defense. There are a pair of All-American candidates in quarterback Trace McSorley and RB Saquon Barkley.
PSU’s non-conference slate consists of three home games vs. Akron, Pitt and Georgia State. The games against Big Ten West foes are at Iowa, at Northwestern and vs. Nebraska. The Nittany Lions have to travel to Ohio State and Michigan State in back-to-back weeks. They get their open date after playing at Northwestern, getting two weeks to prep for a home game vs. Michigan.
Just like Franklin at PSU, I thought Chris Petersen would get it going at Washington sooner. But like Franklin once again, Petersen and the Huskies turned the corner last season. In fact, they went undefeated to qualify for the CFP, only to get beaten 24-7 by Alabama at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.
Washington returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. The Huskies have a lethal offensive trio with QB Jake Browning (43/9 TD-INT ratio), RB Myles Gaskin (1,373 rushing yards) and WR Dante Pettis (15 TD catches).
Washington hosts Fresno State and Montana in non-conference play after playing at Rutgers in the season opener. UW gets four of its last five Pac-12 games at home, but it has to play at Stanford on a short week (11/10). The Huskies get their open date prior to the closing five-game stretch.
Paul Chryst did a helluva job navigating a brutal schedule last year, leading Wisconsin to the Big West title. The Badgers finished 11-3 with all three of its defeats coming in one-possession games, including an overtime loss to Ohio State when they led for most of regulation.
Wisconsin brings back nine starters on offense and eight on defense. Although RB Corey Clement is gone, all five starters on the offensive line return to block for sophomore RB Bradrick Shaw and Pitt transfer Chris James.
The Badgers finished seventh in the nation in total defense and fourth in scoring defense last season. This unit returns a pair of linebackers who are All-American candidates, T.J. Edwards and Jack Cichy.
Instead of facing LSU in non-conference play, the Badgers go to Provo to take on BYU. They host Utah State and Lane Kiffin’s FAU squad. Chryst’s team doesn’t have to play PSU or Ohio State from the East Division, and its game against Michigan is at Camp Randall.
After starting the season 1-3, Southern Cal ripped off nine straight wins. Seven of those nine victories came by 13 points or more. The Trojans might have the nation’s best QB in Sam Darnold, who had a 31/9 TD-INT ratio in ’16. They return four starters on offense and six on defense.
USC’s non-conference schedule includes home games vs. Western Michigan and Texas, in addition to a mid-season trip to South Bend to meet Notre Dame. The Trojans don’t have an open date, wrapping up the regular season at home vs. UCLA on Nov. 18. They have to go to Pullman to face an excellent Washington State team on a short week after playing at California the previous week.
Six teams have season win totals of nine, including Clemson, Oklahoma State, Michigan and Virginia Tech. Those four schools have flat odds (-115 either way), while LSU and Louisville are both shaded to the ‘over’ with -120 prices.
After going 14-1 and winning the national title, Clemson returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. The Tigers must replace QB Deshaun Watson and that job will go to junior Kelly Bryant or true freshman Hunter Johnson.
Dabo Swinney’s team has won at least 10 regular-season games in four of the last five years. The Tigers get Auburn and FSU at home, but they have to play at Louisville, at Virginia Tech and at South Carolina.
Louisville has Heisman winner Lamar Jackson back, but the offense returns only four starters. The defense brings back seven starters, including the entire secondary. The Cardinals open the year against Purdue in Indianapolis against former QB and assistant coach Jeff Brohm. They’ll be in revenge mode at Kentucky in the regular-season finale.
LSU closed ’16 in style by slamming U of L, 29-9, after drilling Texas A&M 54-39 in College Station to close the regular season. Ed Orgeron was retained after a decent run as the interim head coach. His first full season with the Tigers will feature a roster that returns only nine total starters (five offense, four defense), but they have two of the nation’s top players in RB Derrius Guice and BUCK Arden Key.
Key had 12 sacks last season, while Guice rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 TDs despite sharing the rushing load with fourth overall NFL Draft pick Leonard Fournette. LSU opens up against BYU in Houston and has a tricky home game against Troy the week before going to The Swamp for a revenge spot against Florida. The Tigers must play at Alabama and their other SEC East game is at Tennessee.
Michigan brings back only one starter on defense and five on offense. QB Wilton Speight (18/7 TD-INT) is among those, but he lost nearly all of his skill players. Jim Harbaugh’s team opens up against Florida at Jerry World in Arlington. The Wolverines play back-to-back road games twice (at Indiana and at PSU in mid-October), including trips to College Park and Camp Randall before closing the regular season at home vs. Ohio State.
Oklahoma State went 10-3 last season, winning eight of its last nine games with a 38-8 win over Colorado in the Alamo Bowl. Mike Gundy’s offense is loaded at the skill positions with QB Mason Rudolph (4,091 passing yards, 28/4 TD-INT ratio in ’16), RB Justice Hill (1,142 rushing yards) and WRs James Washington and Jalen McCleskey. The Cowboys return seven starters on offense and five on defense. They play at South Alabama and at Pittsburgh in non-conference action.
Virginia Tech finished Justin Fuente’s first year in style, rallying from a 24-0 halftime deficit to beat Arkansas 35-24 at the Belk Bowl. The Hokies, who finished with a 10-4 record, gave Clemson fits at the ACC Championship Game, falling 42-35 when a last-gasp drive was stopped in Tiger territory. They open against West Virginia in Landover, MY., and also play at East Carolina in a non-conference affair.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Florida might be without star WR and special-teams ace Antonio Callaway for its opener against Michigan. Callaway was cited for possession of marijuana on May 14 in Gainesville. The school has yet to announce any disciplinary action against Callaway, who is the only player in UF football history to score TDs in five different ways – rushing, passing, receiving, kickoff return and punt return. Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com had Callaway as the No. 11 overall pick in his first 2018 NFL mock draft.
USC’s Sam Darnold is the +450 ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman at Sportsbook.ag. As noted earlier, OU’s Mayfield has the second-shortest odds, while U of L’s Lamar Jackson and OSU’s J.T. Barrett share the third-shortest odds (+850).
FSU’s Jimbo Fisher confirmed recently that starting safety Trey Marshall will have to sit out the first half of the season opener vs. Alabama in Atlanta. The two-quarter suspension stems from a targeting penalty in the second half of the Orange Bowl win over Michigan. 5Dimes.eu has the Crimson Tide favored by seven points over the ‘Noles.
Former South Carolina QB Brandon McIlwain has landed at California. McIlwain, who was a four-star recruit who got most of the snaps for the Gamecocks in their first five games, will sit out 2017 and then have three years of eligibility for the Golden Bears.
East Carolina has landed three grad transfers who can play right away in ’17, including QB Thomas Sirk (Duke), DL Gaelin Elmore (Minnesota) and RB Tyshon Dye (Clemson).
Listed below are all of the early 2017 Win Totals released by CG Technology in alphabetical order.
Alabama 10.5
Arizona 5.5
Arkansas 7
Auburn 8
Clemson 9
Colorado 7.5
Duke 5.5
Florida 8
Florida State 9.5
Georgia 8
Georgia Tech 6.5
Indiana 5.5
Iowa 6.5
Kansas State 7.5
Kentucky 6
Louisville 9
LSU 9
Miami, Fl. 8.5
Michigan 9
Michigan State 6.5
Mississippi State 5.5
Missouri 6.5
Nebraska 6
North Carolina 7
North Carolina State 7.5
Northwestern 7
Ohio State 10
Oklahoma 9.5
Oklahoma State 9
Oregon 8
Penn State 9.5
Pittsburgh 7.5
South Carolina 5.5
Stanford 8.5
TCU 7
Tennessee 7.5
Texas 7.5
Texas A&M 7
Texas Tech 6
UCLA 6
USC 9.5
Utah 6.5
Virginia Tech 9
Washington 9.5
Washington State 7.5
West Virginia 7
Wisconsin 9.5
Favorite Over Picks
Covers.com
CG Technologies released their season win totals for the 2017-18 college football season and we know you're itching to bet on your favorite program or fade your most hated rival, just like we are. So we've reached out to our Covers Experts to help you out with your season win total bets, asking them what their favorite Over plays are for the upcoming season.
Art Aronson: Penn State Nittany Lions (9.5)
There is plenty of optimism in State College. The Nittany Lions ended the 2016 season with nine straights wins (not including a narrow loss to USC in the Rose Bowl) and look for the good times to pick right up where they left off. QB Trace McSorley came on strong along with the team and figures to be among the best in the country this season. And it won’t hurt that he’ll have Heisman Trophy hopeful Saquon Barkley (18 touchdowns 5.7 yards gained per carry) to hand off to. Together with a decent O-line, they could make PSU the best offense in the Big Ten this year. The O should be more than good enough to overcome any defensive issues.
Power Sports: UCLA Bruins (6.0)
The Bruins fell from 8-5 in 2015 to 4-8 last year. They were 1-4 SU in close games (those decided by 7 pts or less) in '16. That doesn't even include a gut-wrenching loss to Stanford that was one of the worst beats of the entire CFB season. This team brings back QB Josh Rosen, now in his third year as a starter. Overall, Jim Mora has 15 returning starters back, which is on the high end among Pac 12 teams. Expect this team to be back in a Bowl.
Zack Cimini: South Carolina Gamecocks (5.5)
A value play on an over lies with South Carolina. This will now be Will Muschamp's third season as Gamecocks coach. Viewing his first two seasons has not gone like former past experiences at Auburn and Florida. Yet, the scope is finally away from him. The SEC has a bit of change over and that should put the Gamecocks in a favorable position to steal a game or two. Grab the over here.
Dave Cokin: Kansas State Wildcats (7.5)
The Wildcats are ready to take a major step forward this season. K-State improved substantially over the course of the 2016 season and I'm on the bandwagon for them to contend for Big 12 honors this season. This is Bill Snyder's best team in some time and I would not be shocked to see Kansas State in the double digit win column and possibly in contention for a playoff spot.
Teddy Covers: TCU Horned Frogs (7.0)
The betting markets are down on TCU right now, off a disappointing 2016 campaign and a miserable spring game from senior QB Kenny Hill. But the Big 12 remains the weakest 'Power 5' conference, leaving TCU's strength of schedule in the 'very reasonable' category, especially with non-conference affairs against the likes of Jackson State and SMU. Gary Patterson's squad has won seven games or more in 10 of the last 12 seasons; not a program in decline in this bettor's opinion.
Marc Lawrence: Kansas State Wildcats (7.5)
Barry Switzer put it best when he said, “Bill Snyder isn’t the coach of the year. He isn’t the coach of the decade. He’s the coach of the century.” And I couldn’t agree more. He’s the architect of the greatest college football turnaround in history, and he’s not finished. This team is loaded with young, experienced talent, which is just our cup of tea. What is staggering is that of the 286 available total starts in 2016, 179 of those were by players that return in 2017 (62.6 percent). Of the 14 returning starters, 12 started at least 10 games while nine started all 13 games. In addition, KSU held 11 of 13 opponents below their season average last season while ranking 25th nationally and tops in the Big 12 in scoring defense last season. It was the first time the Wildcats ranked in the Top 25 since 2008. That puts us on them like white on rice.
Steve Merril: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish enter this season underrated after a disappointing 4-8 SU/ATS season last year. However, this is still a talented program that was capable of a 10-2 SU regular season two years ago.
Notre Dame will benefit from seven home games this season, plus a manageable road game at Boston College. The Irish also get their bye week on October 14th which gives them extra time to prepare for a huge home game versus USC the following week.
Larry Ness: Auburn Tigers (8.0)
The Tigers started slow and finished slow last season, but in between they were one of the better teams in the SEC, winning six straight. Injuries threw a monkey wrench into what was looking like a strong finish, but the hopes are high this season. Jarrett Stidham, a transfer from Baylor, will be calling the signals, and he’ll be helped by a running attack that should be every bit as good as the one that led the conference last season. The offensive and defensive lines look to be at least A-minus in quality. Toss in the fact that the Tigers get George and Alabama at home this season, and the expectation is that that the Tigers can make life at least a little uncomfortable for their state rival Crimson Tide. Over 8 wins seems very attainable.
Will Rogers: Michigan Wolverines (9.0)
Unlike 2016, expectations will be somewhat tempered in Ann Arbor. That's because the Wolverines have a FBS-level 5 returning starters. But that's where Jim Harbaugh comes in. He's done a great job at recruiting since coming here. He's won 10 games each of his two years here. Last year's three losses came by a total of five points (two by 1 pt). Michigan is a threat to win the Big 10 East.
Brandon Shively: Washington Huskies (9.5)
I'm a big believer in Chris Petersen. The guy has proven himself as one of the best coaches in the country. Wherever he goes, his team wins football games. Washington is ahead of schedule in the rebuild, and I don't see them losing steam here.
The Pac-12 as a whole will be down this year, and Washington should take advantage. Washington doesn't have to play USC, and the Huskies have three easy non-conference games. They should get to double digit wins once again. I like the over for Washington.
Favorite Under Picks
Covers.com
CG Technologies released their season win totals for the 2017-18 college football season and we know you're itching to bet on your favorite program or fade your most hated rival, just like we are. So we've reached out to our Covers Experts to help you out with your season win total bets, asking them what their favorite Under plays are for the upcoming season.
Art Aronson: Clemson Tigers (9.0)
The national champs no doubt got some recruiting help from their title-game victory, but the losses are so significant that it will take a while to fill in all the blank spaces. QB DeShaun Watson, wideout Mike Williams and running back Wayne Gallman will all be in the NFL this season, but almost as big a loss will be defensive tackle Carlos Watkins (12 sacks, 40 pressures last season).
Most of the offensive line and as many as seven defensive starters will return, but with work to do on offense, there will be much more stress on the defensive side of the ball, and getting to 10 wins might be unrealistic.
Power Sports: Colorado Buffaloes (7.5)
On the opposite side of the Pac 12 South ledger, look for Colorado to regress this year. The Buffs are off a stunning 10-win campaign, but won just four games the year prior. They also lost QB Sefo Liufau. They are on the low end of returning starters among Pac-12 teams (12), They have five conference road games. They were 3-1 straight up in games decided by seven points or less last season.
Zack Cimini: Duke Blue Devils (5.5)
Out in the ACC I'll side with Duke going under the win total. This program has flirted with turn arounds in past years but has taken a few steps back. This was noticeable last season and I expect it further in an ACC conference that continues to be devalued. It is not a top heavy league like many assume which will hurt a poor roster of the Blue Devils.
Marc Lawrence: LSU Tigers (9.0)
Here’s a bar bet we’ll bet you’ll win every time this year: The Tigers were ranked dead last in 4th down conversion percentage in 2016. It’s numbers like those that ran Les Miles out of town. What backfired last season was a master plan that called for an experienced squad of underclassmen who made 41.9 percent of all starts last season. Amid rumors of insubordination, they opened the 2016 campaign at 2-2 last year, and with it Miles was shown the door.
Fixer Ed Orgeron steps in as the full-time coach but has a long way to go to mirror Miles’ numbers. There will come a time when he’ll need to win games against quality conference teams, or else. Given Orgeron’s 2-18 SU career mark as a head coach against winning SEC foes, look for the pressure to be intense in Baton Rouge this season.
Steve Merril: Clemson Tigers (9.0)
The Tigers have become a very public team after back-to-back national title game appearances. However, this year's squad will be weaker, especially with the loss of QB Deshaun Watson who accounted for 5,222 yards of offense last season with 50 touchdowns (rushing + passing).
This year's schedule includes a tough home game versus Florida State, with difficult road trips to both Louisville and Virginia Tech. Clemson also has an early season non-conference battle with Auburn on September 9th.
Larry Ness: Colorado Buffaloes (7.5)
The Buffaloes were giddy last season, breaking a run of 10 years without a winning record and advancing all the way to the Pac-12 title game. Now it’s back to reality in Boulder, where coach Mike MacIntyre must rebuild almost the entire defense while hoping a ball-control offense limits turnovers.
Steven Montez will take over as the No. 1 quarterback, and while last year’s sample size was small, Montez had some major accuracy issues that must be cleaned up. One good thing – Colorado opens the season with one neutral site game (Colorado State) and three home games (Texas State, Northern Colorado and Washington) before finally hitting the road on the final day of September (UCLA). But it still looks very difficult for the Buffaloes to get to 8 victories this time around.
Will Rogers: Penn State Nittany Lions (9.5)
The Nittany Lions, not Ohio State nor Michihgan, won the Big 10 East last year and represented the conference in the Rose Bowl. Don't look for a repeat. They pulled three upsets last year in making a big jump up the standings. This is a team that will open ranked in the Top 10, but not finish there.
Brandon Shively: Texas Tech Red Raiders (6.0)
Texas Tech lost Patrick Mahomes after he set all kinds of records for them last season. That's a tough loss for a team that never plays any defense. Every year, Texas Tech says they are going to improve on the defensive side, and it never happens.
The Red Raiders don't have the skill position players they have had on offense the last few years. I think it will be hard for them to put up the video game numbers offensively this year. Will they still score quite a few points. Of course. Will their opposition score more? Most of the time. Texas Tech plays both Arizona State and Houston in the non-conference schedule, so there aren't many easy wins here. I like the under.