Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Thursday, September 1st, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Buster Sports
Indiana at Florida International
Play: Florida International +9
The Indiana Hoosiers and the Florida International Golden Panthers start their 2016 college football season off with a game in Miami. Last year in Bloomington the Hoosiers beat FIU 36 -22 , but what a difference a year makes as it always does. The Hoosiers lost two huge pieces of their offense with Nate Sudfeld and Jordan Howard going to the NFL. The Hoosiers return only 6 starters to their offense and they will have competition at the QB position which will cause difficulty for the team early in the year. Indiana will rely heavily on their running game with Devine Redding who ran for just over 1,000 yds last yr being their main RB. The defensive returns 7 starters to what was a very porous unit last year ranking 120 th. Improvement will be necessary for this unit if the Hoosiers are going to have any success in 2016. FIU returns 9 starters to their offense, led by 3rd year QB Alex McGough. McGough threw for 283 yards in Indiana last year and we see more success at home for McGough against the Hoosiers in this years game. The defense for FIU was ranked 76th in the nation last year but they return only 4 starters which will give new DC Ron Cooper a real job to do. Overall we know that FIU will not be afraid of the boys from the BIG TEN and we believe that they will be able to put up some points against that Indiana defense. We see some nice value in taking the points with FIU. The question marks on the FIU defense and the loss of some key coaching staff at the beginning of the year keeps this from being a premium play.
Wunderdog
Jacksonville @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -3
Young Jacksonville is still rebuilding and heads out on the road for a meaningless Week 4 contest. They are 1-2 SU/ATS this preseason, and don't be too impressed by their 26-21 victory Sunday night against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals trounced the Jaguars' front-line players, taking a 14-3 lead into halftime. The always suspect offensive line got smoked, with Luke Joeckel getting bulldozed at two different positions. Joeckel got put on his backside at left guard by Bengals defensive tackle Geno Atkins in the first quarter. Later, Bengals defensive end Michael Johnson did the same thing as Joeckel tried to play left tackle. Their last two games were at home -- now they head out on the road where the Jaguars were inept in Week 1, losing 17-13 at the Jets, with no TD passes, one pick while getting shut out in the second half. In their last three preseason road games, Jacksonville has scored 12, 17 and 13 points. Now they head to Atlanta (2-1 SU/ATS), a team coming home after playing the last two on the road. The Falcons have won three straight preseason home games scoring 31, 20 and 23 points. Atlanta has a terrific veteran backup in QB Matt Schaub and holds all the cards.
Ben Burns
Seahawks vs Raiders
Play: Raiders -1½
Playing at home, Seattle beat Oakland 31-21 in the final week of last preseason, the 10th straight year that they closed out their exhibition seasons against each other. On Thursday, hosting the Hawks for just the fourth time in the last 11 preseason meetings, I expect the Raiders to return the favor.
When the teams met here in Week 4 of the 2014 preseason, Oakland won by double-digits. That game set up similarily to this one as Seattle came in at 2-1 while Oakland was 1-2 and off a Week 3 loss. After losing their only other home game, a 27-14 loss vs Tennessee last week, I expect the Raiders to be a little more motivated to win this one than their guests.
Condition: Consider Oakland at -3 or better. No play if line were to climb above a field goal.
Vernon Croy
Miami vs New York
Play: Miami
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and I really like this pitching matchup Thursday night. The Marlins have hit .308 as a team lifetime against Matz with an OBP of .372, and this will be the fourth time the Marlins have faced him this season. Matz has an ERA of 5.52 and a 1-2 record over his previous three starts against the Marlins this season, and I look for him to struggle in his fourth start against them. Opponents have hit just .234 against Urena during the month of August, and he has pitched solid over his last two starts. The Mets hit just .182 as a team in Urena's only start against them this season, where he allowed just 4 hits and 1 earned run over 6 solid innings of work, and I look for him to have the same success this time around.
DAVE COKIN
BRONCOS AT CARDINALS
PLAY: BRONCOS +4
Paxton Lynch will be playing the entire game for Denver. While they’re not implementing a complex game plan, I don’t think there’s any question the staff wants the kid to come out of this game feeling good about himself. He might be the backup for now, but the leash for the QB1 in Denver is not a long one, and the Broncos want Lynch to be ready to take over the reigns if necessary. A good game here therefore becomes at least a little meaningful.
The Cardinals have not looked good this pre-season, and it really now appears as though Arians is just not caring much about these results and simply wants to keep bodies healthy. I think we saw evidence of that last week, as the starters were pulled pretty quickly in what is supposed to be the dress rehearsal game.
That being the case, I suspect there’s more focus here on Lynch looking good, so that makes the Broncos a play for me in this one.
Sleepyj
Marlins / Mets Over 7.5
I'm not sold on how DeGrom looks right now and the Marlins have a chance to get after him in this game...Marlins bats have been rather cold, but they need to perform right now to sniff the WC...Mets on the other hand have had some good hitting over the last few weeks..Urena goes for the Marlins and I'm not sold on him at all....His 5.83 ERA is about right IMO..He has stepped up in his last few starts, but he doesn't go very deep in games...He can walk enough Mets here to get in trouble...A very streaky pitcher and the Mets have seen him enough over the course of the last few years...Both teams need this game and I think we see enough hits runs and walks to get us over this total of 7.5 today.
Jack Jones
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -4½
I know the Gamecocks have had the Commodores’ number in winning seven straight in this series, but I believe that streak comes to an end Thursday. The Commodores are simply in better shape than the Gamecocks heading into 2016, and that will show in Week 1 Thursday night.
This should be Derek Mason’s best team yet at Vanderbilt with 15 starters and 57 lettermen returning while only losing 16 letter winners. This is a team that was better than its 4-8 record would indicate last year as it took both Ole Miss and Florida to the wire on the road.
The key for the Commodores is their defense, which gave up just 21.0 points per game last year. Now the Commodores return seven starters on that side of the ball, including one of the best LB corps in the SEC. They have four of their top five tacklers back, led by Zach Cunningham (103 tackles, 16.5 for loss, 4.5 sacks last year).
For the first time in his three-year tenure at Vanderbilt, Mason knows who his starting quarterback will be. Sophomore Kyle Shurmur ran away with the job in practice and he is among eight returning starters on offense. The Commodores have one of the best running backs in the SEC in Ralph Webb, who rushed for 1,152 yards and five touchdowns last year. This offense can only be improved.
South Carolina is in full-on rebuilding mode under Will Muschamp. He steps into a very tough situation as the Gamecocks return just nine starters overall and lose 27 lettermen. This is actually the least-experienced team in the SEC.
The Gamecocks are coming off a 3-9 season and things aren’t going to get much better in 2016. They went 0-5 on the road last year and lost by an average of 15.4 points per game. The Commodores have been a tough out at home of late, going 20-14 at home over the past five seasons.
South Carolina is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 September games. Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in its last six September games. The Commodores are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 SEC games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Packers vs. Chiefs
Play:Packers +3½
Edges - Packers: 6-1 SUATS Thursday preseason games. Chiefs: 0-9 ATS as preseason home favorites of 4 or less points; and 1-6 ATS favorites in Game Four of the preseason. With Kansas City winless both SU and ATS in its last two preseason games versus NFC North foes, we recommend a 1* play on Green Bay.
Brandon Shively
Indiana vs. Florida Int
Play: Over 61
This game went ‘Over’ last year, but the total is about a touchdown higher this year. FIU returns 9 on offense this year including their QB (64% 21-8 LY), all 5 O-Line starters (92 car starts). That should pave the way for the offense and Indiana has never been known for their defense. FIU’s defense is a mess with 16 sacks departing on the defensive line which makes this game good for the ‘over’ as the Hoosiers should be able to protect their QB and run their offense. The new QB is Richard Lagow and he looked good in spring (6-6 JUCO finished 11-of-17 for 135 yards). He threw two touchdowns in red zone-specific work. Top 3 WR’s are back to help out with the scoring. Simmie Cobbs 6’4 Jr will replace Jordan Howard at RB but had 226 carries LY as Howard was injured.
Indiana has a well balanced offense and will look to put up 35+ points here. The weakness for Indiana is that they lost all 4 defensive linemen from last year and there are no expected seniors to start on the defensive line which is a big concern for this game, especially playing their first game on the road against an experienced QB and offensive line of Florida International.
Freddy Wills
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Under 42½
This is obviously already a low total at 42.5 at just over 6 touch downs, but I think we still have some value here when you look at the strengths of each teams which is their defenses. I actually would lean towards South Carolina on the side, I don't think there is much difference between these two schools, but I just can't get too pumped about the hiring of Will Muschamp or backing a team coached by him.
South Carolina was 120th in pace last year averaging just 66 plays per game, and I don't expect much to change when they break in 7 first time offensive starters. This offense is having to replace 3 starters on the offensive line and they are going up against Vanderbilt, a team whose defense returns 83% of their production. A team defense that's good enough to win the SEC East. Vanderbilt held conference opponents to 33% TD percentage in the red zone. They also held conference opponents to 25% third down conversions. I think this is a struggle for South Carolina, and I don't think they will try to do too much here on offense.
Vanderbilt on the other hand also has a poor offense that is unlikely to improve with just 59% of their production returning. This offense was 25th in time of possession, so expect them to run the ball (56% of the time), which falls into the strength of South Carolina's front 7. The front 7 of South Carolina should be much improved and they have attacking linebackers that should set up Vanderbilt in third and long. Vanderbilt has to replace two starters on the offensive line and while that does not sound like much they replace a total of 75 starts from Pulley and Bernstein. Not exciting news for a team that was 102nd in yards per carry a season ago. I think this is poised to be a very boring low scoring game and South Carolina could be in position to pull the upset.
3G-Sports
Rice vs. Western Kentucky
Play: West Kentucky -16
LB TJ McCollum can shoot the gap quickly. When he fires through he causes incredible problems for teams. Tyler Stehling will be on edge looking at the Junior LB coming at him. McCollum is fast and has very good hands - and will make more than enough plays to hurt the Owls. DB J.T. Blasingame will be challenged by QB Mike White all game long. White is mobile and can make plays when the chips are down - that won't stop here. The Owls have struggled passing vs defenses - they have not had a big armed guy to lead them - and playing the Hilltoppers pesky defense won't be easy. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Western Kentucky wins by 23 or more here on Thursday night.
Mike Anthony
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +3
Jacksonville has scored 21 or more 2/3 times thus far in the pre-season - and they appear like they have things going in the right direction again. Atlanta should be still be concerned, even though they will be dealing with 3rd stringers and players looking to make the team. Atlanta's backs haven't been able to find a lot of room when running in the middle - and that is still going to be hard. They Jags have some decent DTs that are very physical in the middle and can force some bad decisions for opposing RBs. Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Jacksonville wins their final pre-season game here so take the 3 pts as a bonus.
Jim Feist
Oregon St at Minnesota
Pick: Under
These teams are working in new quarterbacks and Minnesota is a run-oriented team that chews up yards and the clock. The Beavers were routed 35-7 at Michigan early last season as coach Gary Andersen faced a Big Ten foe for the first time since leaving Madison, Wisconsin. The offense brings in transfer quarterback Darell Garretson, so don't expect the offense to be in midseason form and the under is 5-2 in the Beaver's last 7 non-conference games. The Minnesota Gophers were the nation's 24th-ranked total defense last season and the under is 4-1 in the Golden Gophers last 5 non-conference games. Minnesota is looking forward to its first full season under coach Tracy Claeys, who went 2-4 as the interim coach after former coach Jerry Kill resigned due to health issues midway through the 2015 campaign. With all the new looks, look for the defenses to be ahead of the offenses.
Dace Cokin
San Francisco vs. Chicago
Play: San Francisco F5
Jeff Samardzija heads back to his old Wrigley stomping grounds here. He’s coming in on a warm roll, with four consecutive good starts. I don’t think there’s any question that this coincides with Samardzija resurrecting his curveball, which had been in mothballs for years. This is a nice add to his arsenal, as it finally gives Samardzija a true off speed offering. I think one of his problems has been that he doesn’t have a changeup, and the variance between his fastball and his other pitches just wasn’t particularly dramatic. Now he’s got about a 15MPH gap between the fastball and an 80MPH curve. It doesn’t even have to be a great pitch, if it gets the hitters timing messed up a little bit, it becomes a valuable weapon. Whether or not this is anything more that a short term fluke remains to be be seen, but at least for right now the curveball has clearly been a plus for Samardzija overall.
Mike Montgomery will go for the Cubs, and he’s not likely to go much past five innings. The lefty has made four starts, two of which were quite good, the other two were not. It’s all about control for Montgomery. When he’s getting ahead of hitters, he’s tough. When he’s not, he becomes hittable and walks can also be an issue.
I mulled over playing this full game at what will be a better price than a 1H wager. But given the Cubs amazing record at home and the inconsistency of the SF bullpen, I decided that the F5 looks like a better option, so I’ll play the Giants that way here.