Rob Vinciletti
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Under 42½
This game fits a powerful system that pertains to opening week games in this totals range with both tams playing off consecutive losses to close out last season. The Gamecocks are returning just 4 starters on offense but should be improved on defense. Vandy has gone under in 13 of 17 on Turf and 12 of 16 in conference games. In the series these two have stayed under in 9 of the last 13. With this being an early conference affair look for a hard fought lower scoring type game.
Jimmy Boyd
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -4
It might not show in the win column, but Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason has this team moving in the right direction. I look for the Commodores to take another big step in 2016 and really surprise some people with how much better they are.
South Carolina on the other hand is in a major rebuilding phase with only 9 starters back. Not to mention they will be adjusting to new systems on both sides of the ball. It’s unclear who will be the starting quarterback for the Gamecocks. It’s down to senior Perry Orth and true freshman Brandon McIlwain.
Either way I think advantage goes to Vanderbilt. Orth doesn’t really do anything great. McIlwain on the other hand would be making his first ever start on the road in a conference game. Chances are whoever starts is going to struggle.
Vanderbilt has 7 starters back on a defense that shined last year. The Commodores only gave up 21.0 ppg and 351 ypg. Pretty impressive given how the offense struggled to stay on the field.
I look for big improvements on offense for Vandy this season. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Shurmur guided the Commodores to two conference wins last year. Doing so as a true freshman. He should be even better and that’s going to make everyone else around him play with more confidence.
The Gamecocks were 0-5 in true road games last year. Their biggest problem away from home being their defense, which gave up 32.7 ppg and 482 ypg on the highway. With only 5 starters back on that side of the ball, the defense will struggle again in 2016.
You also have to factor in the motivational angle here for Vanderbilt. They haven’t beat South Carolina since 2007. That's 7 straight losses against a division rival. They were painfully close last year in Columbia, losing 10-19, despite leading 10-6 midway through the 4th quarter. They turned it over 5 times and the Gamecocks only touchdown game on a 78 yard pass. The Commodores feel like they should have won that game and will be as motivated as ever to end the streak with this being their home opener.
The Gamecocks are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in September. Vanderbilt on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in September. The Commodores are also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 conference games.
Big Al
Marlins vs. Mets
Pick: Mets
As the final month of the 2016 season begins, the situation in the N.L. may not be entirely clear yet, but it's certainly clearer than over in the other league. Two of the three divisions are essentially decided, with - barring complete meltdowns - the Cubs and Nationals almost certainly taking the Central and East Divisions respectively. And in all likelihood, the West will come down to either the Dodgers or Giants, with the runner-up getting the first Wild-Card spot. That leaves four teams battling for a single second Wild Card, and two of them wrap up a critical series tonight in Queens, with the Mets going for a four-game sweep that will give them a leg up on their competitors from South Florida. RH Jacob deGrom goes to the hill for his 24th start of the season opposite Miami's RH Jose Urena who will get his seventh start. Injuries to the Marlins pitching staff this season have necessitated the team to dip into the bullpen for starters - and such is the case with Urena. Urena is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA in three career outings (one start) vs. the Mets. The Marlins are now 1-6 in the last seven meetings at CitiField.
Carmine Bianco
Brazil at Ecuador
Play: Under 2.3
Even with a match involving Brazil you can expect a less than entertaining. Expect Ecuador to play a tough defensive game here shutting off the midfield with offense limited to counterattacks in a game that Brazil will likely have an edge in possession. These sides have gone under the total in 5 of 6 in Ecuador lifetime and recently drew 0-0 in Copa America action although both sides had watered down line ups. This could likely end in a low scoring draw but i'll lean with the Under.
Bruce Marshall
Tulane +17
Though we respect Wake HC Dave Clawson, this is an awfully heavy number to lay for the Demon Deacons, who only scored 17 ppg last season to rank 120th in scoring. Immobile QB John Wofford is not likely to trigger a scoring avalanche, even against Tulane, which sources say might be much improved with the upgrade at HC to Willie Fritz, recently a winner at Georgia Southern after building Sam Houston State into a Southland Conference power. Fritz still has a QB situation to sort out but no way are we laying this many with Wake, only 4-9 as double-digit chalk the past decade. Note that Fritz and his Georgia Southern squad had a 9-4 spread mark last season.
Scott Rickenbach
Miami at New York
Play: Miami +1½
The Mets gave Jacob deGrom some extra rest after his last start hoping that will help him to "sort things out" before this start. I don't expect any dramatic turnaround for him though after getting rocked for 13 earned runs on 25 hits in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. DeGrom also has been hit hard by the Marlins in recent starts against them as he has given up 13 earned runs on 26 hits in less than 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts against Miami. The Marlins will have Jose Urena on the mound and he has allowed a total of just 3 earned runs in his last two starts. Also, in his lone start against the Mets he held them to 1 earned run on just 4 hits in 6 innings of work. The Mets are only 9-11 in deGrom's last 20 starts and 4 of those 9 wins came by just a single run. That means if you had played the Mets at -1.5 runs on the run line in each of deGrom's last 20 starts you'd have a 5-15 record. I'll gladly take 75% odds in my favor while only having to lay -125 odds to get the 1.5 runs here with the Marlins.
Brandon Lee
Giants / Cubs Under 7.5
The UNDER is worth a look tonight in the series opener between the Cubs and Giants. While we don't have the greatest pitching matchup, the conditions here are heavily in favor of a low scoring game. The wind will be blowing straight in from left field at a near 15 mph clip. The Cubs will start Mike Montgomery, who despite not going deep into the game in his last 2 starts, has pitched effectively, allowing just 4 runs on 7 hits with 10 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings of work. Giants will counter with Jeff Samardzija, who has really came on strong of late, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last 3 starts. This will also be Samardzija's first start at Wrigley Field since leaving the Cubs and he's going to want to pitch his best in this one.
Dave Price
Tennessee -20.5
The Tennessee Vols are legit national title contenders this season. They are the most experienced team in the SEC with 17 starters back. I expect them to run away with the SEC East and to make the conference title game with a trip to the four-team playoff on the line. But first, it starters with Week 1 against Appalachian State. While the Mountaineers had a great 11-2 season last year, they play in the Sun Belt and aren't used to the athleticism they'll see from the Volunteers. They got a taste of it last year in a 41-10 loss at Clemson, and I look for a similar final in this game tonight. The Volunteers are 8-0 all-time vs. current Sun Belt teams, winning by an average of 30 points per game.
Larry Ness
White Sox vs. Twins
Pick: Twins
The Minnesota Twins have owned one of MLB's worst records for most of the 2016 season but as the calendar turns to September 1, the Twins are in their worst funk in a longtime. Minnesota went 15-11 in July but followed that with a 9-19 August by losing their final 13 games of the month. The 13-game losing streak is one shy of the franchise mark set in 1982 and the team's current slide is tied with the 1961 club for the second-longest streak in team history. Minnesota now owns MLB's worst record (49-84) and opens the new month with a four-game series against the 63-69 Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Chicago is coming off getting swept in a three-game series against the Tigers at Comerica Park, with that three-game skid dropping the White Sox to 8 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot and a whopping 13 games back of division-leading Cleveland.
Jose Quintana (11-9, 2.77 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago on Thursday, opposed by Minnesota's Ervin Santana (6-10, 3.54 ERA). Santana deserves better than his record, as playing for the now MLB-worst Twins, leaves him 7-17 in team starts (minus-$1031) despite his solid 3.54 ERA. However, Chicago's Quintana knows all too well the feeling of not getting what one deserves. The Chicago lefty has posted ERAs of 3.76, 3.51, 3.32 and 3.36 from 2012 through 2015. His ERA is 2.77 in 2016, after posting a 1.81 ERA and in eight starts since the All-Star break.
However, the White Sox are just 14-12 (minus-$44) in his 26 starts this year and going back to the beginning of his career (2012), his W-L record stands at 44-43, despite a 3.33 ERA. More noteworthy is his 67-78 record in team starts, going minus-$1352 vs the moneyline. The bet here is that 13 losses in a row is enough. Take Santana and the Twins.
Nelly
Charlotte + over Louisville
It took four games for Louisville to pick up its first win last season but as this spread suggests it would be a shock if the Cardinals didn't open the 2016 season with a win. Looking ahead to ACC matchups the next two weeks is a risk but a Cardinals squad that returns a great deal of starting experience should be in line for a promising start to the season. Charlotte started 2-0 in the first FBS season for the program last year but that is as far as the team got with 10 straight defeats including only two of those setbacks coming by fewer than 10 points. The will be a veteran team with the program starting four years ago as the roster is filled with upperclassmen. Miami transfer Kevin Olsen is poised to lead the offense and improvement is needed after averaging just over 17 points per game last season. Against the most promising programs the 49ers faced last season Charlotte lost by 34, 34, 24, and 48 as this squad was only competitive against the bottom of Conference USA. After last season's brutal September Louisville should be a team focused on a great start to the season but Louisville only eclipsed scoring 38 points in one FBS game all last season let alone winning by that kind of a margin as this spread is asking a lot for the Cardinals. Some major program transfers are filling in a lot of gaps for Charlotte who could be an improved team despite being valued as one of the nation's worst team and with the 49ers riding at 10-game losing streak. Louisville is on a 9-19 ATS run as a double-digit home favorite.
Tony Finn
Tulane vs. Wake Forest
Play:Wake Forest -16.5
The national media won't commit to more than a sentence or two when asked to preview the American Athletic Conference's Tulane Green Wave and that coverage is apathetic at best. You won't see Tulane in the AAC overvalued container nor the underrated category as most of the attention goes to the likes of the Houston Cougars as being the team to beat, the Navy Midshipmen as the squad that is most overrated and Willie Taggart's troupe as the sleeper in the league.
Much of the same can be said about the Wake Forest Demon Deacons who compete in a loaded American Coastal Conference. The Clemson's, Florida State's, Miami Hurricane's and Louisville Cardinals have dominated the offseason conference news.
Wake Forest opens the 2016 season playing host to Tulane at BB&T Field. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and will be viewed on a live stream from ESPN3 and the ACC Network Extra. You will have the pleasure of getting in-game updates from Taylor Zarzour and former Wake Forest head coach Al Groh. The east coast forecast calls for a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms with a north wind of 10 m.p.h. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be in the upper seventies.
Tulane
Willie Fritz, has rose through the ranks of college coaching, previously working with Central Missouri, Sam Houston State and Georgia Southern in his most recent career stages. Fritz moves into the locker-room coaching office to replace Curtis Johnson and while the staff is new as is the scheme many believe this Tulane crew will be competitive this season. The Willie-Offense is an option-based scheme and one he has had uber success with taking over previous programs that worked under a more modern formats.
There is nothing soft or mid-major about the American Athletic Conference and not only are the Wave testing themselves outside of conference waters they have to battle week-in and week-out in league play against the likes of Houston, Temple, Cincinnati and others in a battle tested AAC.
Tulane is a mere 6-16 overall since their last bowling campaign, in 2013, former bench boss Curtis Johnson was replaced who was having his fair share of success at Georgia Southern. And while his bottom line moved in the right direction while coaching G-Southern the move to the AAC and change in offensive direction won’t be immediate.
The new coaching staff brings high hopes and fresh enthusiasm to the gridiron and while the AAC, overall is a rough and tumble group, Tulane’s success will come in league play, not in their non-conference slate.
Wake Forest
The Deacons are all in with head coach Dave Clawson and while the bosses third season will find the squad more offensive than they have been in Clawson’s first two campaigns they still lack the blue-chip talent to compete for an ACC honors. Clawson’s offense has been suspect due to the liabilities of their offensive line. While the front five have been capable run blocking the unit has allowed a ridiculously damaging 88 sacks over the last two seasons. While top-tier talent lacks at the top of the Wake depth chart they are deep with young players who gained experience in the coaches first two seasons.
The expectations for Wake are realistic considering the troupe is off two consecutive 3-9 seasons and the oddsmakers believe that the Deacons make hay in the non-conference portion of their 2016 schedule. The opening point-spread in this Week #1 bout saw Wake as near 18-point favorites and caught sharp money in early August. Over the last month the public has been backing Tulane, however, that underdog coverage is more about Wake laying double-digits than anything else.
Outlook
Clawson’s crew only needs to continue to trend northerly in relation to the production of their offensive line. The Deacons will continue to be a run-first offense and the squad’s effectiveness rushing the football last year was nearly double to that of the head coaches first campaign. Forest returns 15 starters and face a Green Wave history that has them win-less against the spread (0-6) in their last six meetings against ACC schools.
Reports of the improved technique of Clawson’s offensive line which includes more time for the offense to utilize tight end stud Cam Serigne and a emphasis on wearing down the opposition in the trenches makes the Demon Deacons a hard sell in ACC play. However, more experience in the clubs turnover rate results in wins and covers over teams the Deacons are supposed to defeat. That includes their opener against AAC Tulane.
Nelly
Rice at W. Kentucky
Play: Rice +16.5
Replacing long-time starting quarterback Brandon Doughty will be a great challenge at Western Kentucky as he accounted for 48 touchdown passes last season. There are some veteran skill position players back on the offense but matching last season’s 12-2 campaign will be a serious challenge. Jeff Brohm will also need to re-tool his defense which made dramatic improvement last season to no longer be a one dimensional squad that needed to outscore opponents. Only a few starters return on defense and the numbers could slide towards the 2014 averages when the Hilltoppers allowed 510 yards per game. Next up on the schedule is a spotlight opportunity with Alabama but this is an important crossover game in Conference USA to open the season. Rice was the runner up in C-USA West in 2014 and many thought the Owls would contend again last season. It didn’t happen with a 5-7 season that featured several ugly blowout losses and a huge decline in the defensive numbers. Last season’s 49-10 result in Houston should be a motivating factor as Rice had five turnovers in that game led to a more lopsided result than deserved. The spread is about 10 points higher this year despite a decline likely for the Hilltoppers. Rice is on a 15-9 ATS run in road games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Rice +16½ over W. KENTUCKY
Western Kentucky boasted a top-three offense in scoring and top-10 accolades in both passing and total offense in 2015. However, the Hilltoppers will now have to replicate these numbers without one of the most prolific passers in NCAA history, Brandon Doughty. While Coach Jeff Brohm has the prowess and expertise to power up this typically potent offense, he will likely have his work cut out for him in the first game of the post-Brandon Doughty era. Enter Mike White, a transfer from South Florida, who was named as starter less than a week ago after beating out senior Tyler Ferguson and sophomore Drew Eckels for the job.
Western Kentucky enters 2016 with a reputation and a Conference-USA Championship to defend so like many other teams in this scenario, the price to pay to back WKU is an inflated one. Western Kentucky may have had the offensive accolades but their defense had the luxury of knowing their better halves scored over 40 points in 10 of their 14 outings last season. Now this proficiency may take a step backward and the Hilltoppers defense will have to do their part to keep WKU afloat. This same WKU defensive unit returns only one starter from a unit that surrendered 28 points or more in 10 of their 14 contests last year.
Rice had one of the best rushing attacks in 2015 within the Conference-USA, compiling over 177 yards per game on the ground. With respect to the fact both WKU’s offense and defense are both question marks in this affair, there is no reason the Owls cannot swoop in and malinger late in to the fourth quarter, keeping this one closer than the line projects. Let us make one allusion to WKU’s efforts with Doughty at the helm in 2015 when the Hilltoppers kicked off their season at Vanderbilt where they won 14-12. The Hilltoppers could have easily been blown out but the Commodores failed to put them away by blowing numerous scoring chances. It is just a reminder that there is often rust to shake off after a seven-month layoff so when you are spotting a tag like this with a weak defense, you better be sure that outfit will be sharp. Rice isn’t going to wow anyone but what they will attempt to do is run the ball in an attempt to limit WKU’s possessions. Western Kentucky ripped the Owls apart last season with a 49-10 victory and as Rice Coach, David Bailiff said, “There is power in failure”. Catching WKU in the opener is likely to have some benefits for Rice, who figures to be much better prepped this time around.
Pass CFL & NFL
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA +105 over Chicago
When we last faded Jose Quintana, we deemed him "ill-equipped" to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA and questioned his ace status despite a 1.98 ERA at the time. Quintana has continued to dominate, as he's posted a sub-2.65 ERA each month except June (5.51). He comes into this start with a 2.77 ERA after 26 starts but these are the same skills he's posted in previous seasons. Quintana's surface ERA has been driven by some good fortune, as hit % and strand % haven't been this favorable at any point in his career. His xERA of 3.90 further suggests a correction is coming. Quintana’s K-rate and control are right in line with recent seasons. Quintana's groundball rate has plummeted despite using his sinker more often (career-high 24% usage in 2016). Despite the career-best ERA, little has changed for Quintana from a pure skills standpoint. He’s reliable and he’ll eat innings but at the end of the day, he’s as average as he’s always been.
When we last looked at Ervin Santana toward the end of June, he had 4.64 ERA. However, a 1.75 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 57 second half innings is reason enough for another assessment. Is Santana likely to finish the 2016 season strong? Very good skills and some good fortune have combined to enhance his second half results but it is all legit. Santana has enough velocity and induces sufficient swinging strikes to support a K-rate somewhere between 7 and 8K’s/9. His slider is working beautifully in the second half with a 21% swing and miss rate. Over his last five starts, Santana has whiffed 28 batters in 27 frames with an elite 13% swing and miss rate. Certainly he has a chance to thrive here but let’s put aside the starters for a minute and focus on the situation.
The Twinkies have lost 13 in a row. While we are not usually in favor of backing such a cold team, we’re pretty sure that the Twins focus will be sharp in an attempt to snap the ugly funk they’re in. Santana is a seasoned vet that has seen it all so he may be the perfect starter to snap it. Meanwhile, the South Side is coming off a series against Detroit with the opportunity to play spoiler. They failed miserably by getting swept. They now go from that important series to this meaningless one. Playing the spoiler role is one that is exciting and motivating, especially against a rival like Detroit. After getting swept, the South Side will limp into this series with likely far less intensity. We are seeing a similar scenario play out in Atlanta the past couple of days. San Diego went into Miami last weekend and took two of three from the playoff contending Marlins. After that series they went into Atlanta, as a non-contender playing a non-contender, and were outscored 15-4 in losing the first two games of that series. We expect a similar mindset from the South Side here.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Cardinals of Louisville to get their season started with the biggest blowout on the Thursday - and possibly the weekend - over the 49ers of Charlotte.
In their short time on board, Charlotte is 0-6-2 against the spread as a double-digit underdog. That stat doesn't bode well against the stacked Cards, and their stingy (just over 3 yards per carry allowed on the ground last season!) defense. It's a defense that is likely to chip in with a score or two in front of the home crowd at Papa John's Stadium.
Figure on the Redbirds scoring early and often. Sophmore quarterback Lamar Jackson accounted for 23 total touchdowns last season, and his backup Kyle Bollin is no slouch either, so don't expect any letup no matter who is under center for Petrino.
This one has blowout written all over it.
Louisville names it.
3* LOUISVILLE