Tony Karpinski
Eagles vs. Chargers
Play: Eagles +2
Philadelphia enjoys having a big target for a WR, in Alshon Jeffery- and their Oline allows time to get off some deep looks. Wentz has been picking up over 7/YPA and Jeffery is getting 9/targets a game for reason. This Philadelphia team has some great vibes right now. It took a long time for this team to grow that feeling, they aren't letting it go yet.
Anthony Lynn has this Chargers team playing with a lackluster style of play. They will find themselves falling behind fast - in the first few key possessions in the game, if they cant accrue points faster - vs teams like the Eagles. They cant expect to move up in the standings with the way they have been playing. The Chargers struggle with scoring greatly, and their running game will struggle as well. Rivers was very off in his last game, throwing 11 off-target passes, which is saying a lot for the team right now. Chargers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Doug Upstone
49ers vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 44½
After not scoring a touchdown in their first two games, San Francisco exploded for 39 in Week 3, but still lost to fall to 0-3. Today they face division partner Arizona who is 1-2. In this scenario, Play Under on team against the total (49ers) after going over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, whose win percentage is less than 25% on the season, facing a team with a losing record. The Under is 24-4, 85.7% the last 33 years.
Scott Rickenbach
Panthers vs. Patriots
Play: Panthers +9
After getting thoroughly embarrassed last week by New Orleans (partly due to a 3-0 turnover deficit), look for Carolina to respond in a big way here. Their health on defense overall is in a little better shape than it was last week and, keep in mind, the Panthers had allowed just 3 points in each of their first two games. Though the Patriots are a formidable foe, to say the least, they were so insanely hot ATS last season, that you have to feel a correction is coming this season. That said, they are already 0-2 ATS at home and I feel they are again overpriced here. Interestingly, the Pats are actually 1-3 ATS (and SU!) the last 4 times they've been a home favorite in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. While an upset certainly wouldn't be a complete shock here, I am grabbing the generous points.
Jeff Benton
My Sunday freebie is New England as the home favorite against a suddenly-suspect Carolina offense.
The Patriots defense has been carved up this year, but today they face a Panthers attack that has lost its bite, as that off-season shoulder surgery to Cam Newton may indeed be lingering a little longer than has been reports.
Carolina was held to just a trio of field-goals 2 weeks ago against Buffalo, then last week managed a measly 13 points against a bad New Orleans defense in a 34-13 loss. It's obvious that something is not right in Panther-Land as they head into this week's contest.
The same cannot be said for the Patriots offense, as Tom Brady delivered a last minute win over Houston last week, and his team has scored at a 33-points per game clip in their first 3 games this season. New England is on a 14-5 against the spread run their last 19 at Gillette Stadium, so go ahead and "lay the lumber" as New England pulls away from the anemic Carolina attack here in Week Four.
Pats the play.
3* NEW ENGLAND
Joey Juice
A lot of people tuning in to watch the Jets for the first time last weekend probably think they are a playoff bound team, but as my friends from Public Enemy once said, "don't believe the hype". The Dolphins played like they were on ketamine, obviously not showing up to that one, and making the Jets look like an actual football team, but they're not.
This Jacksonville Jaguar team is 2-3 touchdowns better than the Jets. They can score with the best of them, but the key to their 2-1 start this season is definitely their defense.
This Jaguar defense is led by 6' 8" 300lb defensive lineman Calais Campbell, and they held the Ravens to under 200 total yards with just 52 by way of the pass last week.
A look inside the numbers shows a clear advantage here for this Jaguar team, especially on the road. 4-0 ATS last 4 road games. The Jaguars are also always dominant against their AFC foes, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. AFC.
The Jets on the other hand never play well after a cover. They are 0-4 ATS last 4 after an ATS win.
Jaguars are the free play.
1* JACKSONVILLE
Eric Schroeder
My free play is out of the AFC South, as I like the Cleveland Browns plus the points at home against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Both teams come into the game at 0-3, so how the oddsmakers are making Cincy the road chalk is beyond me when the Browns could very well be a better team than the Bengals.
Trust me when I tell you Indianapolis Colts backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who beat the Browns last week, is much more of a threat than Bengals starter Andy Dalton, who has been sacked 11 times through 3 games. Cleveland's defense will be down his throat all game, and the Dawg Pound will be rocking.
Myles Garrett is the difference maker today, as Cleveland stymies the hapless Bengals. Besides, you can always count on the Browns stealing an AFC North win at home. Today is the day.
4* CLEVELAND
Tommy Brunson
Your comp play winner for Sunday is the Over in the Bills-Falcons meeting at the new Mercedes Benz Dome.
It may be a new football field for the Falcons, but thus far the results have been the same, as the first game at the Falcons new digs produced a rather high-scoring Sunday night contest against the Packers 2 weeks ago.
Atlanta has played their last pair of games Over the posted price, as the Over for the Falcons now stands at 18-4 their last 22 games played. That streak includes 11 straight Overs at home!
After a pair of Unders, Buffalo did land Over the total last week at home against the Denver Broncos, as the Bills have now played Overs in 13 of their last 19 games dating back to last season.
Until we see some concrete evidence that the Falcons offense can be stopped, or even slowed, the play is to go Over in Atlanta's games.
Bills-Falcons Over.
4* BUFFALO-ATLANTA OVER
Jack Brayman
My free play comes from the NFC West, as I like the Arizona Cardinals to destroy the San Francisco 49ers tonight in Glendale.
The Cardinals have the 11th-best offense, and at home, will victimize the Niners' lethargic defense that just let the Los Angeles Rams roll up 41 points in a two-point, shootout victory.
Frisco is allowing the fourth-most points in the league, giving up 25.3 points per game.
Take the Cardinals today, as they blast San Fran for the fifth straight meeting. Arizona has won four in a row in this series by an average of 15.2 points per game.
Take the home team.
5* CARDINALS
Bob Balfe
Bengals -3
We have all witnesses the Bengals struggles and the head scratching reaction to Marvin Lewis still standing on that sideline after all of these years, but this is a game he simply can’t lose or they will have to let him go. The Browns do not have an experienced defense and I believe the Bengals will get their running game going which will set up the pass. The Browns on offense just don’t have many natural wide receivers on their roster to be able to move the ball up and down the field. I have been impressed with Cleveland, but record wise it is still the same old Browns.
OC Dooley
Bills / Falcons Under 48
Courtesy of a primetime shootout involving Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers the Atlanta Falcons amazingly have played 11 consecutive "overs" in front of their HOME fans. However this total has DROPPED offshore from the opening figure of 49 points which has led to a previously "unscheduled" wager. It should be pointed out that Atlanta has a a brand NEW home facility which for karma purposes may cut in on their "over" streak. In the past TWENTY FIVE YEARS when off consecutive games outrushing the opposition by 75+ yards each time the Falcons are 13-3 UNDER the total (also 13-4 to the UNDER in the same time span after "allowing: 75 or less yards on the groundin consecutive contests). In the pior two years even with a defensive-oriented head coach Rex Ryan the Bills struggled in that area. Buffalo all of a sudden has become proficient on defense with a new headmaster Sean McDermott and their lone ROAD game this season produced a 9-to-3 final score. Falcons coach Dan Quinn was former DEFENSIVE LINE coach in college (first job in 1994) and McDermott was one of his players (as a member of the secondary)
The Real Animal
Rams / Cowboys Over 49
If you don't think coaching matters in the NFL check out Jared Goff these days. Under Jeff Fisher, Goff was scared for his life having no confidence in his offensive line. Now he's playing with with reckless abandon thanks to the Rams robbing Buffalo of their receiving unit with Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. Plus adding a few veterans to the offensive line like Andre Whitworth has paid off huge dividends (107 points in three games). Goff under Coach McVay has seen his QB rating rise from 63.6 to 118.2 That is the largest increase for a second-year QB since 1970! But the defense remains a work in progress. The Rams surrendered 229 rushing yards to Washington and 421 total yards to San Francisco. Dallas comes off the Monday night win at Arizona with travel and a short week of preparation. The Cowboys are 7-0 'OVER' since 10/27/2013 when coming off a road win in which they never trailed. Who would have believed entering this year after three weeks the Rams would be leading the NFL in scoring. Dallas still banged up in the secondary. Remember, Arizona was short on weapons due to injuries so they could not exploit the Dallas defense like LA can. But the Rams are still sloppy on defense and after facing the pass rushes of Arizona, Denver, and the Giants, Dak should prosper versus the Rams. Elliott overdue for a monster game. Look for Goff games to go to 7-3 'OVER' in his young career.
Wunderdog
Atlanta vs. Miami
Pick: Miami -154
Atlanta has already packed in the season as it finishes up for real today, riding a six-game skid. The Braves are also on a 4-11 run, and young starter Max Fried has allowed 24 hits and 11 walks in 21+ innings. Atlanta is just #21 in baseball in runs scored, #24 in slugging. The Braves come off a 10-2 loss here yesterday, and the team is 4-20 off a division loss by 6+ runs. Miami has a winning home record, #11 in baseball in runs scored, having won three in a row. The Marlins go with budding young ace Jose Urena (14-7, 3.77 ERA), who has pitched well against the Braves this season, going 2-1 in four starts with a 2.22 ERA. He is also 12-4 against a team with a losing record. And Miami is 38-18 at home after having won three of their last four games.