Brandon Lee
Arizona State vs. USC
Play: USC -8
I'm going to back the Trojans at home against the Sun Devils. It's not been the start some expected for USC in Pac-12 play. The Trojans are just 3-4, but three of those losses have come against really good teams in Oregon, Utah and Arizona. The other a 1-point loss to a talented Cal team. While it's early, this feels like a must-win game for the Trojans and I expect an all out effort here. Arizona State is a team USC can take advantage of. While the Sun Devils can score, they play zero defense and it's resulted in a number of ugly losses this season. It's also a horrible spot for Arizona State, who is playing their 3rd straight game on the road after laying it all on the line at Arizona and UCLA in their previous two games.
Jack Jones
Toronto Raptors -11.5
The Toronto Raptors come into this game highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost two straight coming in, including their worst loss of the season last time out. After falling to the 76ers 89-94 on the road, they lost 78-113 at Charlotte on Friday.
The Raptors are primed to get back in the win column in blowout fashion against a Phoenix Suns teams in a tough spot here. The Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They won't have much left to give after winning 107-105 in Madison Square Garden yesterday.
Phoenix is 2-12 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Toronto is 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Suns are 15-36 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Suns are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win.
Ray Monohan
Nuggets / Timberwolves Over 221
The pace in this one is going to be frantic.
Here two teams who push the ball extremely fast and like to get plenty of shots up battle it out and the Over here has value for it.
Denver is 30-11-1 to the Over this season as they average 110 points while conceding 111. This team has plenty of outside shooters who can hit the 3, but their inside game is also a huge presence.
As for Minnesota, their youth plays a role on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they lack maturity and get beat rather easily by leaving shooters open. However, offensively, they have plenty of weapons like the Nuggets who can attack the bucket.
Some trends to note. Over is 42-18-1 in Nuggets last 61 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 16-7 in Nuggets last 23 Sunday games.
This is a case where both teams will push the issue and we should see plenty of points scored on Sunday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Rangers/DETROIT Over 5½
In 2016 these two played each other four times and every game went under 5½. In fact, these two have gone under 5½ the last six times they have faced off against one and in nine of the past 10 games. The market propensity is not to buck a trend but trends in sports is one of the most overused and useless angles that the market puts way too much emphasis on. A game from 2014 has absolutely no impact on this one and neither does a game from last year.
This time around we have two extremely speedy teams with not so great defences and shaky goaltending. We can almost assure you that high quality scoring chances will be plentiful. Since Pavel Buchnevich and Mike Zbanejed have returned to the Rangers lineup, it has made a huge difference in the Rangers attack. New York was an offensive juggernaut to begin with and are even more potent with that strength up the middle back in the lineup. The Rags have scored five goals or more in seven of their past nine games, which bodes well here against a weak Red Wings’ defense that ranks 20th in high danger chances allowed.
The Red Wings have scored six goals twice in their last four games. As quick as the Rangers are up front, the Red Wings might be quicker and now they’ll face a goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist that is fighting it big time. Lundqvist’s recent struggles are well documented so we’re not going to go into details but let’s just say he’s not the king of goaltenders anymore. Between these two teams, they have scored five goals or more in one game an incredible 23 times already this year. With the speed in this game, expect plenty of PP opportunities. Lundqvist comes in with a weak .902 save percentage that is much worse over the past month while Mrazek has a .895 save percentage. Unless both goalies play spectacular, which is highly unlikely, this one might go over quickly. If they both play well, it still might go over.
SPORTS WAGERS
UCONN -10½ over East Carolina
We get a bargain price here on the Huskies because they have been so bad this year that not many are anxious to spot double digits with them against anyone. We’ll get back to the Huskies in a sec. East Carolina is an extremely weak AAC squad that is 9-10 thus far, which is actually better than UConn’s 7-11 record. That is just another example of how records can be so misleading. East Carolina’s out-of-conference schedule ranked 349th out of 351 Division I schools. The Pirates are 1-5 in the conference with their only win occurring against South Florida, who may not win a conference game this season. When the Pirates take the floor against anyone with a pulse, their chances of getting blown out are far greater than their chances of hanging around. East Carolina does nothing well and has already paid a price for scheduling games against such weak competition. The rest of their dues will likely be paid in full here. It’s also worth noting that the Pirates have been off for a full week.
Connecticut is coming off a 20-point loss to SMU, which looks awful on paper but it wasn’t as bad as it appears. The Mustangs were hitting everything early and built a big lead that they maintained but UConn did not surrender. They played hard and that is what you can almost always expect from a Kevin Ollie coached squad. In that respect, you can never count the Huskies out. UConn’s out of conference schedule included a 10-point loss to #11 Oregon, a three point loss to a very good Northeastern team, a four-point loss to Ohio State and a two-point win over Syracuse. In conference, the Huskies defeated Temple by 14 for one of their two conference victories. The Huskies have lost five games thus far by four points or less including two OT games, thus, we could be discussing a 12-6 team as opposed to a 7-11 squad. On their worst day, the Huskies are vastly superior to the Pirates and now these talented but inexperienced youngsters will get their chance to prove it. Expect the Huskies to be much sharper than the Pirates and likely steamroll them in the process.