Scott Spreitzer
George Mason vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -6
As with all plays I release and bet, we start with a side that is undervalued according to my power ratings. That's the case for Richmond in this one. T.J. Cline & ShawnDre' Jones are a tough duo for any opponent, including George Mason. The two combine for 34 ppg, more than 9 rpg, and 9 apg. Besides the defensive matchup issues with these two, GMU also doesn't have any true dishers; no one player to rely upon to set up open looks for others. Richmond defends well, especially on the perimeter and they'll head into this one having covered four of their last five off a loss. The home team in this series is on an 8-1 ATS run and we'll back the home team here.
Jesse Schule
Packers vs. Falcons
Play: Under 61.5
It was just a few days ago now that the Houston Rockets hosted Golden State, in a game that featured the highest NBA total in modern history (at least the last 10 years). The number opened at 236.5, and closed as high as 242. This is what I said prior to tip off: " Even for those who think this game is going to be a shootout, there's just no value betting over with such an inflated total." The Warriors went on to win that game by a score of 125-108, which would normally be an easy cash for over bettors. Not in this case though, because the number was just too high. I feel the same way about this year's NFC Championship Game. While I expect both teams to score plenty of points, I still think it's going to be hard to reach what is expected to be the highest NFL total in playoff history. In order for both teams to score 30+ points, everything has to go right offensively. There's plenty that can go wrong. An injury to a key offensive player (heaven forbid one of the quarterbacks). We could see several drives cut short by turnovers (fumbles or INTs). Or one or both teams could be heavily penalized. Offensive holding penalties, offensive pass interference, unsportsmanlike conduct etc. I do expect this to be a high scoring game, and I've loaded up on prop bets for individual players to score TDs. I don't need 61.5 total points to cash in all those bets, and I think the chances are a lot higher that the total lands between 50-60, than they are for the total to go over 61.5.
Brandon Powell
Suns vs. Raptors
Play: Suns +11½
While Phoenix is not a world beater by any means, they have one of the more potent offenses in the league. They are averaging 106 points on the road this year. Tyson Chandler is absolutely murdering the boards recently averaging just over 17 rebounds a game over his last 7 games. Bledsoe and Booker are both playing very efficiently on the offensive end as well. Phoenix is 15-5-1 ATS over the last 21 games against Toronto, the Suns are 6-1-1 over the last 8, and has won 9 of the last 11 games in Toronto. I don't think Phoenix wins, but their offense keeps it close.
Jimmy Boyd
Packers vs. Falcons
Play: Falcons -6
The betting public is all over Green Bay in this one, yet we have seen this line jump from Atlanta -4.5 to -6. That’s a clear indicator the sharp money is on the Falcons.
I’ll admit it’s not easy going against Rodgers with the way he’s playing right now. The thing is, Ryan has been playing at an elite level all season and would get my vote for MVP. He was sensational against the Seahawks, completing 26 of 37 for 338 yards with 3 touchdowns. I know that Seattle secondary was minus Earl Thomas, but it’s still better than what Green Bay will send out.
As for Green Bay’s offense, they will have the services of Jordy Nelson (probable). However, I just don't think he's going to make a big impact in this one. I also don't think the Packers lack of a running game is going to keep holding up. As good as the offense looked last week, they had 245 yards on their first 3 possessions. All 3 touchdowns. From that point on they managed just 169 yards, allowing the Cowboys to erase a big deficit. Let’s also not overlook that’s a bad Dallas defense who can’t put pressure on the quarterback. Atlanta’s defense isn’t great, but they do have an elite pass rusher in Vic Beasley.
We also have a strong system backing a fade of the Packers. Road underdogs off an upset win are just 65-111 (37%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half of the season in a matchup of two teams with winning records.
Larry Ness
Phoenix vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The Toronto Raptors will try to rebound from their worst offensive performance of the season when they return home Sunday to take on one of the league's worst defensive teams in the Phoenix Suns. The Raptors shot 33.7 percent from the floor and were out-rebounded 51-33 in a 113-78 loss at Charlotte on Friday. Meanwhile, the Suns earned a 107-105 victory at Madison Square Garden last night on Devin Booker's three-pointer with 31 seconds to play. They survived when Carmelo Anthony's three-pointer at the buzzer rolled around the rim and fell out.
Booker had 26 points for the Suns and the 20-year-old has had quite a January. It started modestly with 13 points on January 2nd but in his last eight games, he's scored at least 21 points in each outing, topped by his back-to-back 39-point efforts in Mexico City. He's averaging 28.4 PPG in that stretch and now leads the team in scoring at 20.5 PPG. That barely edges out PG Bledsoe, who checks in at 20.4 PPG, along with 5.1 RPG and 6.1 APG. Bedsoe was 10-for-10 from the line Saturday, played 39 turnover-free minutes and owns 35 assists against only nine giveaways in his last four contests. Then threr is center Tyson Chandler, who grabbed 16 rebounds against the Knicks to set a franchise record with his seventh consecutive game of at least 15 boards (an average of 17.0 per game). However, there is a reason the Suns are 14-29 and it's a defense allowing 111.7 PPG (29th), with that number increasing to 113.3 PPG on the road.
Toronto's 'ugly' loss to the Hornets leaves them at 6-7 over its last 13 games. "We've been in a little funk lately," point guard Kyle Lowry told reporters. "We're not playing on all cylinders right now. I just think it's that time of year. No excuses at all, there's just this mental fatigue." You think? The Raptors may be the East's No. 2 seed with a 28-15 record but I doubt there is one person familiar with the league who thinks the Raptors are a serious threat to the Cavs returning to the NBA Finals.
However, this game is against the Suns and with the Raptors off Friday's embarrassing loss, expect them to put forth an excellent effort. If need be, they can be reminded that one of the team's losses in its recent 6-7 slump came at Phoenix back on Dec 29, a 99-91 Suns victory! The Raptors are the East's highest scoring team and third overall at 110.2 PPG. They are 15-6 SU (13-7-1 ATS) at home, where they average 114.0 PPG. Lay the points!
Harry Bondi
Pittsburgh / New England Under 50
We used the under in the Pittsburgh-KC divisional playoff game here last Sunday and cashed a winning ticket and we’ll do so again today, as the Steelers have now gone under in six of their 12 games this year. Pitt is also 2-7 to the under on the road this year, and is an even more profitable 7-20 to the under away from home the last three years. Also, as mentioned in this week’s NFL Championship Game Betting Preview, the under is 7-2-1 the last six Conference Championship Games, including 4-1-1 the last two years, and the AFC Championship Game has gone under in five straight years with the losing team failing to score 20 points in all of those games. We’ll follow those trends and call for another low-scoring game in Foxborough tonight.
Oskeim Sports
Packers at Falcons
Play: Over 60
In the twelve NFL games with a total of 57.5 points or higher, the OVER is 10-2 (83.3%). Interestingly, this game has the highest total of any NFL game since Week 9 of the 2000 regular season between St. Louis and San Francisco. From a historical standpoint, the OVER has been a profitable investment in NFL games involving extremely high totals like the one we have in the NFC Championship game.
The OVER is 14-2-1 in the Falcons' seventeen games this season, while the OVER is 12-6 in the Packers' last eighteen games (6-0 L/6). In the last fourteen years, the OVER is a 62.1% winning proposition (18-11-1) in Conference Championship games. Let's also note that the OVER is 11-0 in Atlanta's last eleven games played on artificial turf and 11-1 in its last twelve conference affairs, while the OVER is 17-4-1 in Green Bay's last 21 games versus NFC South opponents.
In his past nine starts, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown 24 touchdown passes and one interception. Similarly, Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown 22 touchdown passes and three interceptions. Rodgers has also thrown ten touchdowns without an interception in four starts at the Georgia Dome. The Packers have averaged 34.8 points per game since Week 14, while the Falcons have averaged 38.0 points per game over the same span (5-0 OVER L/5).
Dave Essler
LaSalle +7
They've got too much offense this season not to, and VCU is just not playing well of late. I suppose they could take it out on the Explorers - LaSalle was crushed by them last season (and probably many seasons) and this is an experienced bunch with a "last shot at it" - worth a dollar.
Anyone looking at the Wisconsin-Milwaukee game should know that it's been moved up to accommodate the Packers fans that want to watch the game.
And I wouldn't take too much of the flu or the early morning fire alarm in the Steelers' hotel into account. Once the game starts, it won't matter one way or the other. I am a bit surprised they stayed at the Airport Hilton, which is quite some distance from the stadium.
Nelly
Steelers at Patriots
Play: Patriots -6
High profile offensive players are featured on both sides of this matchup but both Pittsburgh and New England were top 10 teams in total defense this season. The Patriots were the #1 scoring defense in the NFL by 3 points per game, a full 42 points ahead of #2 Seattle. Houston’s shaky offense did manage 16 points last week but only one of four scoring drives for the Texans was longer than 18 yards with three of four scores coming off New England turnovers. Tom Brady matched his season interception count last week with two picks though both were deflected passes. It didn’t wind up mattering as New England still won and covered despite a sloppy showing from the offense against the league’s #1 total defense. New England has incredibly been the AFC Championship each of the last five seasons, though losing the game three times in that run. These teams met in the AFC Championship in the 2004-05 season with New England winning 41-27 in Pittsburgh in Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season. Surprisingly despite their success and longevity the Patriots and Steelers have not met in the playoffs since Mike Tomlin took over the franchise in 2006. In seven regular season meetings New England is 5-2 (4-2-1 ATS) including this season’s win at Heinz Field, a game that Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play in. Pittsburgh did win once at New England in that run, a 33-10 in the 2008 season, a game Tom Brady didn’t play in. This will be the sixth time under Bill Belichick that the Patriots have hosted the AFC Championship winning four of those five games but going just 2-3 ATS. There is good reason to be a bit suspicious of the defensive numbers for the Patriots as the low turnover rate and top special teams numbers rarely put the defense in bad short field situations. The Patriots do feature a formidable run defense which will be tested with the great success Le’Veon Bell has had, finishing the season fifth in rushing despite missing four games and now gaining 337 in two playoff games with his unconventional patient approach. Tom Brady was hit often against the Texans as the offensive line didn’t hold up in many situations and Pittsburgh’s pass rush was formidable late in the season. The return of Bud Dupree mid-season has made a big impact and the playoff failures for New England all share the common theme of pressure up front created with the Giants and Ravens notably having the best success. As Tomlin has cited the scheduling edge for New England is severe with the move to the Sunday night game in Kansas City while the Patriots played at home Saturday. Playoff teams facing consecutive road games are just 5-16 S/U and 8-11-2 ATS the past five postseasons including a 2-13 S/U run the past 15 instances and a 1-7-1 ATS run the past nine instances which includes teams that played a Week 17 regular season game on the road and then a wild card game on the road. The case can certainly be made that the Steelers have stronger personnel at many key positions but much of the season Pittsburgh has had stretches where they have failed in big spots including failing to score a touchdown last week despite four red zone situations. On the injury report Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan both look probable despite scares last week for the Patriots. In Week 7 New England won at Pittsburgh in a competitive game 27-16 with the Steelers closing to 20-16 in the 4th quarter behind Landry Jones at quarterback. Two of New England’s 11 regular season turnovers were committed in that game with fumbles from wide receivers. New England held Bell in check to 81 yards on 21 carries and former Steelers running back LeGarrette Blount starred for the Patriots with two scores and 127 yards while Brady was not sacked in the game. The Steelers have been dogged by 6 or more just four times the past four seasons, going 0-4 S/U with no ATS wins and at under a touchdown New England is tough to fade given that 25 of the team’s 28 wins the past two years have come by 7 or more.
Cal Sports
Northwestern at Ohio State
Play: Northwestern +1
NW is a pleasant surprise as they are 12-4 ATS with two ATS losses coming as 18 and 28 pt favorites. The Wildcats are off a blowout win versus Iowa and did not have to play a mid-week game. Ohio St, meanwhile played back-to-back nail biters beating Nebraska by one point Wednesday and Michigan St by 5 points last Sunday. Did not make an actual play because Ohio St is wining despite not even playing their best as they were out shot in each of their last two wins
East Carolina at Connecticut
Play: Connecticut -10.5
With UConn on a 5 game losing streak no team needs a feel good won worse. ECU is playing their third game without PG BJ Tyson and their second without HC Jeff Lebo who had hip surgery. I didn’t make it a regular rated play because UConn is down to 7 scholarship players and while that it a benefit if they are only using a 7 man rotation they mentioned getting some walk-ons some time. Also I expect no real home court edge with Patriots playing at the same time.
Ben Burns
Chicago -190
The Hawks are heavy favorites for good reason here. While the Canucks are 5-16 on the road, the Hawks are 17-9 at home. In addition to having the superior lineup and playing on home ice, the Hawks are better coached and healthier. They always love beating up on the Canucks and I expect them to do so again this evening.
Rocketman
Green Bay @ Atlanta
Play: Over 60
The Green Bay Packers travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon in the NFC Championship game. Green Bay comes in with a 12-6 SU overall record this year while Atlanta is 12-5 SU overall this season. Both teams have good offenses and great QB's with Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Green Bay is averaging 269.8 yards per game passing and 373.3 total yards per game while Atlanta defense is allowing 263.1 yards per game passing and 367.5 total yards per game. Atlanta is averaging 296.9 yards per game passing and 416.2 total yards per game while Green Bay defense is allowing 263.1 yards per game passing and 367.5 total yards per game. The OVER is 22-10 last 32 and 5-1 last 3 years when Green Bay faces the NFC South. The OVER is 6-1 this year when Green Bay has won 2 or more consecutive games. The OVER is 14-2 this year in all Atlanta games including 10-0 OVER when they are favored and 9-0 OVER at home.
Green Bay is scoring 28 points per game overall this year, 27.1 points per game on the road this season, 34.3 points per game their past 3 games overall and 25.7 points per game in domes this year. Green Bay is allowing 28.6 points per game on the road this year and 24.7 points per game in domes this season. Atlanta is scoring 33.9 points per game overall this year, 35.1 points per game at home this season, 35.7 points per game their past 3 games overall and 36.1 points per game in domes this year. Atlanta is allowing 25.1 points per game overall this year, 26.9 points per game at home this season and 27.4 points per game in domes. Last two games between these two teams they scored a combined 65 points and 80 points, with both going OVER the total easily. Should be another shoot out. We'll recommend a small play on OVER THE TOTAL here today!
Vegas Butcher
Green Bay / Atlanta Under 60.5
This is the end of the road for the Packers. Yes, their offense has played at a high level for a long time, but I don’t see that happening today. The fact that three of their key receivers are barely able to suit up for this one is a huge factor. Why? Because you have to score points against the Falcons, the #1 ranked offense in the league. While Green Bay got out a big lead last week, and barely hang on in the second half, they won’t have the same luxury in this one. I thought that Dallas was the overall ‘better’ team last week, just a bit unlucky in the first half. But will the Falcons under-perform early as well today? Doubtful. This is as confidence of an offense juggernaut as I’ve seen in awhile. And there’ll be a lot more pressure on Rodgers to keep the game close today than there was last week. If anyone can do it, it’s him of course, but it’s much harder when you’re dealing with heavily banged up receivers at your disposal. I like the Falcons at under a TD here.
Additionally, let’s not forget the dynamic Atlanta running game. Build a lead early, and pound away on the ground in the second half, is how I see this game shaking out. The O/U over 60 is the highest number I’ve ever seen in the post-season. My model has this one at 55 total points, thus providing us with a ton of value in this one.
Brad Wilton
Sunday comp play is to "lay it" with the Warriors as they make stop # 2 of 4 in a row away from Oakland.
Stop # 1 on Friday night saw the Dubs paste the Rockets by 17 in Houston, as Golden State has now won 6 in a row straight up, and they have covered in each of their last 4 wins - claiming them all by double-digits.
Orlando has won just twice in their last 9 games straight up, and they have gone just 4-5 against the spread in that span.
Golden State is on a 6-game series win streak over Orlando, and they have covered in 4 of the 6 wins.
As long as the Warriors stay interested, this game should not be close.
Lay the road lumber as Golden State adds another victory to their road tour.
2* GOLDEN STATE
Eric Schroeder
Everyone - and I mean everybody - is on the Over in this game. The line has climbed to 61, as bettors have been pounding both the Packers and the Over.
But my money is on the Under, with the philosophy that the only way either team is escaping this game is by playing defense. Atlanta will have to get to the great Aaron Rodgers, while the Packers have to slow down the Falcons' offensive machine.
Keeping Green Bay's passing game in check may not be that hard, though, as it was forced to sign rookie receiver Max McCaffrey from the practice squad, in order to add depth at a position plagued by injuries.
Green Bay has listed three receivers as questionable for the Falcons game, including starters Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Nelson is recovering from broken ribs while Adams has an ankle injury.
I admit it, both defenses are shaky. And it sounds ludicrous to associate two of the most lethal offensive units with an Under. But again, the defensive big plays are going to win this game for one of these teams.
I think it'll get into the 50s, but that's when we'll see the defensive stalwarts make a statement.
Let's take a shot with the Under on the early game. More importantly, be sure you're checking out my late premium play, as I LOVE the total in the AFC Championship game.
4* Packers/Falcons Under