David Banks
Cowboys @ Giants
Play: Giants+3.5
It was Week 1 of the new 2016 NFL season. The Giants travelled to Dallas and beat the Cowboys by one, 20-19. Dallas has not lost since. Winners of 11 straight, the Cowboys are hot. They are the NFL’s first team to clinch a playoff berth and they continue in an effort to guarantee a top seed and home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs. They will have to win on the road again as they did last week in Minnesota. For the season, Dallas is 6-0 away from home.
The Giants suffered a setback last week when they ran into a motivated Steelers squad. Once again, the Giants run game failed them. New York is 31st in the NFL averaging just 77.5 rushing yards per game this season. The defense is solid, eighth in the league in points allowed per game (19.8 ), but Dallas presents a problem, namely, Ezekiel Elliott.
The NFL’s leading rusher, Elliott now has 1,285 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. The Dallas offense is a model of efficiency; the Cowboys are first in the NFL in time of possession. They are second in rushing (155.8 yards per game) and fourth in scoring offense (27.8 ). Oh, and their defense is a Top 10 unit that is fifth in the NFL in scoring (19 points allowed per game). Dallas has owned the fourth quarter too. Last week against the Vikings, they got an opportune turnover with 10:39 left in the game and turned it into the game-winning points.
Harry Bondi
Pittsburgh / Buffalo Over 45.5
Normally a December game in Buffalo would call for a low scoring game, but today we have two cold weather teams that are used to the elements and with the forecast calling for clear conditions with relatively low winds, we’ll call for a shootout as the Bills have gone over the total in all five games on this field this year. Pittsburgh’s defense has played very well the last three weeks, but that was against teams that can’t run the ball (Browns, Colts, Giants). Today, they face the No. 1 rushing offense in the league that also has a mobile QB. The last time the Steelers faced a similar offense was four weeks ago when Dak Prescott and the No. 2 ranked rushing team in the league went into Pittsburgh and put up 35 points and over 400 yards of total offense. The Steelers offense, meanwhile, is as healthy as it has been all season, scoring 24 points or more in four straight games. Go over!
Brad Wilton
It appears Trevor Siemian will be ready for this road game in Nashville after sitting out last Sunday's non-descript 20-10 road win and cover at lowly Jacksonville.
Paxton Lynch was last week's starter, and things were kept quite vanilla for the rookie from Memphis. The Broncos leaned on their defense in last week's win, forcing 3 turnovers, and even recording a pick-six off of Blake Bortles to help secure the win.
I know the Broncos defense is their calling card, but I am going to side with the Titans who are at home and have a real shot at the playoffs for the first time since back in the 2008 campaign. Tennessee is playing off their bye week, and they were on the road the 2 games prior to their off week, and they will be on the road the next 2 weeks after this contest. The Titans have won and covered their last pair at Nissan Stadium, and are catching Denver playing their second straight away from the Mile High City.
Great opportunity for Tennessee and second year QB Marcus Mariota to step up and deliver the signature win of the season for the Titans who are playing their only home until New Year's Day.
Nature inclination is to back the defending Super Bowl Champs, but this is not the same team that won the whole enchilada last season.
Take Tennessee.
2* TENNESSEE
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 14-7 run with free picks, and for Sunday I am on the Tennessee Titans over the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos are quickly fading in the mighty AFC West, and while they're stuck in catch-up mode behind the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champs are running out of time.
The Titans, meanwhile, share the AFC South lead with both the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, and quarterback Marcus Mariota has been one of the brightest spots for this team. He's easily been one of the biggest reasons the team has won five of its past eight games.
Mariota set a franchise record by throwing at least two touchdowns in each of the past eight games, and has now thrown 21 touchdowns versus a mere three interceptions in that span. He leads the NFL with a 117.7 passer rating while the team leads the league in scoring with an average of 30.8 points per game since Oct. 6.
I know Denver has the NFL's stingiest defense against the pass, allowing a meager 192.7 yards per game, but this one being in Tennessee, the Broncos not only will deal with Mariota, but also DeMarco Murray. Yes, that guy, he's still around, and he's the league's second-best rusher, leading the third-best rushing game in the NFL.
As for Denver, things aren't as swell under center, as coach Gary Kubiak never knows whether it will be Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch. The former has been nursing a foot sprain, while the latter is a rookie who has yet to show signs of consistency Kubiak needs in a starter. There's no balance with the running game, either, as three backs are on injured reserve, which prompted the team to claim Justin Forsett off waivers last Monday, from Detroit.
Bad spot for the Broncos, great opportunity for the Titans.
3* TITANS
Bob Valentino
My free pick for Sunday is on the Carolina Panthers plus the point at home against the visiting San Diego Chargers.
The Bolts are 2-4 on the road this season, and face an angry Panthers team that will miss the playoffs one year after losing in the Super Bowl. And even though the Panthers are 4-8 on the season, I think they're better than that record and I think they can dominate a team like this Chargers squad.
Record-wise, San Diego is one game better. But the Chargers are on the verge of missing the playoffs for the sixth time in seven seasons, in what could be the final campaign in San Diego, as the upper brass must decide whether to relocate to Los Angeles following the defeat of a ballot measure for a new stadium.
Traveling cross-country for this one, this late in the season, into colder conditions than San Diego will ultimately effect the Bolts.
Take the home team here.
2* PANTHERS
Brett Atkins
My comp play winner for Sunday will be to look for the Vikings and Jaguars to hold Under the total.
As bad as Jacksonville is, at least they are solid on defense. Same can be said for Minnesota, as their offense has been held to 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games this season, and they hit Florida having held Under the total in their last pair, and 5 of their last 7 overall. For the season, the Vikes are 8-4 Under the total.
Jacksonville just held Under last week at home against Denver, and the Jags have played Under the total in 3 of their last 5 overall.
You just get the feeling that this one will not see all that many points, and that the defenses will be the dominant sides on the field this afternoon.
I heard someone say this week, first team to double-digits wins, and I don't think that is far from the truth!
Vikings-Jaguars Under the total.
4* MINNESOTA-JACKSONVILLE UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner is on the Atlanta Falcons, getting it done on the road against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams are rough go this season, their first in Los Angeles, and the struggle will continue today against the high-flying Falcons, who score an NFL-best 32.2 points per game.
Behind quarterback Matt Ryan, who has thrown 27 touchdown passes against just seven interceptions and has the Falcons tied atop the NFC South, I don't see the Rams keeping up tonight.
Los Angeles has lost three straight and seven of eight, and is struggling terribly on offense. PERSPECTIVE: the Rams have scored 180 points this season - 206 fewer than the Falcons. And, Los Angeles is just 1-3 at home.
This one is going to be over by the end of the third quarter.
4* FALCONS
Jimmy Moore
Steelers -2
Have to LOVE the Steelers laying less than a field goal here. They need this win big time and December is usually winning time for Big Ben and the men of Steel. Pittsburgh has covered 9 of the last 10 against the Bills and Buffalo is just 2-3 ATS at home. Bottom line on this one is who do you trust more at QB - Taylor or Big Ben? Enough said.
The Real Animal
Tampa Bay -1.5
At 5-7 and trailing both Atlanta and Tampa by two full games I think the Saints are finished. Sure they control their own destiny to a degree considering this is the first of two games with the Bucs and they still play in Atlanta. But when you lose to Carolina like the Saints did in mid-November and then lose to Detroit by 15-points at home, stick a fork in them. Plus three of their last four games are on the road. Coach Koetter understands the importance of this one. "This is a big game for both teams because of the way the scheduling falls, where New Orleans plays us twice and Atlanta once in the last three weeks," Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter said Wednesday. "We have three division games in the last four weeks, so that makes this game -- the way our division is so tight right now, these division games are huge. Many of the Buccaneers' biggest wins have come on the road, but they've won two straight at home, and Koetter recognized a surge in the attendance to match the one in the standings. "It's been fantastic, that's what it's been," he said. "That's how it should be and that's how we should keep it. We've got to do our part and the fans are definitely doing theirs. Appreciate it, appreciate it very much. Let's do it this week, too." Tampa beat Seattle in their last home game 14-5 and held the Seahawks to 245 total yards. New Orleans is still a train wreck defensively ranked #30 versus the pass and #26 overall. They are allowing 35.3 points per game within the division (1-2). Tampa has won and covered four straight and have a ton of momentum. Max Unger being questionable hurts the New Orleans’ beleaguered offensive line. Tough going against Drew but I think he struggles in this one. Koetter has this team on a roll.
Dr Bob
Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins
Teetering on the brink of playoff elimination, the Cards and Fins each need this win to keep their postseason hopes alive. Ryan Tannehill has had a breakout season under Adam Gase, going from bad to average as he is now the 17th ranked passer in the NFL. The Dolphins have been dependent on a bruising rushing attack this season with Jay Ajayi who leads the Dolphins’ 3rd ranked rushing attack. Lean to Miami (+2) and OVER (43.5), both below model thresholds.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A pair of NFC South teams headed in seemingly opposite directions as the Bucs have been winners of four straight and the Saints have dropped three of the past four. Second-year signal caller Jameis Winston has shown strides as he is the #12 rated passer in the league at 6.7 NYPP. For the Saints, Breesus continues to spin it at an elite level, ranking 4th in the league in NYPP at 7.5. The advanced stats model has a lean to OVER (51), though it is below the threshold for a play. No opinion on the side.
Brady Kannon
Vikings -3
Week in and week out, the Wiseguys continue to bank on Jacksonville and once again, I don't see it happening. Yes, Minnesota's offense is no great shakes but their defense is pretty tough and I see it being tough enough to limit Jacksonville and thus allowing The Vikings offense to prevail by more than the number.
I made this number 5. Last week I believe we had a similar match up with Denver.. a great defense and a somewhat limited offense, with a backup quarterback last week to boot. I feel a similar scenario will play out and that is Minnesota's offense being able to do enough to put a few points on the board, and the Minnesota defense clamping down Jacksonville so handily, that the 3-points will not be enough for the dog to cover.
Vikes in a low scoring affair win by at least a touchdown. Game has 20-to-10 written all over it.
River City Sharps
Houston +6.5
The Texans travel to Indianapolis to for a re-match with the Colts. The first meeting in Houston the Texans pulled out a 26-23 victory. These teams are coming into this game in opposite directions, Indy winners of 3 of 4 and Houston losers of 3 straight. Take the Colts, right? Wrong. They will be without 4 starters on their defense that are injured and the fifth, MLB Jackson has been suspended. That’s a huge blow to a defense that is only ranked 25th in the league. The Texans have been beat up as well and Osweiler is lousy, granted. They do possess the 5th best rushing attack in the league and a top 10 defense. We look for them to establish the running game and keep Luck and his troops off the field. The Colts don’t run it particularly well, so the Texans will pressure Luck. With a game that has this big of playoff implications we think that laying just under a TD is too much. The Colts are off a short week and a blowout win so will they be totally ready for this?
Wunderdog
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Detroit Pistons
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers +13.5
The Philadelphia 76ers have not been competitive for a long time. They have failed to win even 20 games each of the last three years and bottomed out at 10 wins a year ago. This team is improved, but has a long way to go. They do get Nerlens Noel back for this one, which should help. Philadelphia snapped a 23-game road losing streak their last time out. Detroit made the playoffs last year, but at 13-12, they don't appear to be any better. And last year's mark was 44-42, including a quick one-and-done playoff appearance vs. the Cavs. Bad road teams (.340 or worse), off a road-dog win as a six or more point underdog, providing they lost two games back, are 106-60 ATS.