King Creole
Seahawks / Packers Under 46
This is the ONLY game on the Week 14 schedule in which BOTH teams are ranked in the Top 13 in overall defense for the season (GB: #13 / Sea: #8 ). And don't forget that the Seahawks are back to their usual NUMBER ONE ranking in terms of SCORING defense as well (allowing only 16.2 ppg in 2016). There's no way we can fade numbers like these: SEATTLE is 1-10 O/U on the non-division NFC road in the last 4 years (32.9 combined ppg). Meanwhile, Green Bay is an equally UNDER-whelming 1-10 O/U in their last 11 non-division home games against NFC opponents (39.8 combined ppg).
Our first database query looks at GREAT NFL teams playing on the road in the 2nd half of the season. Looks like a LOW-scoring outcome is VERY possible.
7-23-1 O/U L3Y: All GAME NINE or greater > .700 road favorites (Sea is -2.5 to -3) when the OU line is pts in a Sunday NIGHT game the previous week (Sea) when the OU line is 55 pts and 7 points.
In addition, Seattle's last 2 games have had contrasting ATS results: An ATS WIN of +24 points (vs Car) and an ATS LOSS of -14 points (vs TBay).
5-19 O/U s'2005: All NFL favorites off an ATS win of 14 > pts and an ATS loss of 14 > pts in their last 2 games. FAVORITES in this role have gone 1-10 O/U.
Both of the teams in this one have allowed 14 < points in EACH of their last 2 games.
2-10 O/U s'99 / 0-6 O/U in NON-division play: GAME 13 or less when BOTH teams allowed 14 < pts in EACH of their last 2 games (GBay / Sea).
Andy Iskoe
Buffalo +3
This game could have Wild Card implications with Pittsburgh at 7-5 and the Bills at 6-6. Buffalo lost 38-24 at Oakland in which they led 24-9 in the third quarter. The Bills rushed for 212 yards, the fifth straight game in which they've topped 150. Buffalo has a favorable schedule with 2 more home games followed by a Week 17 game at the Jets. After 4 straight losses (SU and ATS) the Steelers have won (and covered) 3 in a row. Last week's win over the Giants was not pretty but Pittsburgh was clearly in control. The defense played extremely well for a third straight week. Both offenses excel at avoiding turnovers, portending a cleanly played game. Buffalo's a home dog for just the second time this season. Their running game, including the mobility of QB Taylor, lends support for playing a home dog that rates extremely high in our ranking of categories that point to both SU and ATS success.
Vegas Butcher
San Diego Chargers +1
I know the Chargers are traveling all the way from the West Coast for a 1PM EST game, but remember, the Panthers spent about a week-and-a-half out West, battling OAK and SEA the last two weeks. They’re almost like a ‘west-coast’ team as well for this one J In any case, I’ll back the ‘better’ team in this one. San Diego has been very unlucky early in the year, but they are a ‘playoff caliber’ squad. Panthers are not. Plus without Keuchly, the best LB in the league, this defense stands no chance against Rivers and Co. I like the Chargers to prevail here.
Cleveland Browns +5.5
If Browns are going to win a game this year, this has to be the game. They are coming off a BYE. They are getting RGIII back with two full weeks to practice and prepare. They have healthy weapons on offense with Coleman and Pryor using the BYE week to rest up. And Cleveland is facing Cincy, Hue Jackson’s former team. I expect the Browns will be very motivated in this one, as no NFL team wants to finish winless on the year. Besides, this is a weak Cincy squad they’re facing. The D is terrible, there is zero pass-rush, and without AJ Green and Bernard, the passing options are limited for the offense. The Bengals are off a home rout but don’t be fooled, that was against a regressing Eagles team. Prior to that, Cincy was 1-5-1. Public is heavily on the Bengals, but I believe it’s a mistake. Browns get their first, and very possibly last, win in this one.
Buffalo Bills +2.5
It’s going to be cold and snowy in Buffalo on Sunday, which hopefully provides the home team an advantage. The #1 rushing team is going to do their thing of course and with both Watkins and Woods healthy, Bills should be even more prolific offensively. Steelers have been playing well, but this will be their toughest challenge since Dallas 4 weeks ago. I know Buffalo lost last week, but prior to that 4th quarter, they looked like a more dominant team than Oakland. I expect them to bounce back at home here as both team are desperate for a win. My model has this one at -2.1 BUF so value’s on the home team.
Miami Dolphins +2
Last week I described in the breakdowns that Baltimore’s #1 ranked run-D would make it really tough on the Dolphins’ offense. Well, I expect a much better showing against Arizona’s 11th ranked run-D. The Cardinals are elite in the pass-game, but against the run, they’re not that imposing. And that’s why this is a good matchup for the home team. Besides, this Cardinals team is priced like a ‘good’ team, which they’re not. This is a bottom-10 team in the league, which is still getting lines based on their ‘name recognition’ from the last few years. If you disagree with me, then ask yourself this question: “Do ‘good’ teams typically have a winning or losing record on the road?” Cardinals are 4-2 at home but only 1-4 on the road this season, with their only road-win against the lowly Niners. Playing in the 1 PM EST time won’t help. I’ll grab the undervalued home team in this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 -120
Sure the Jags are on a 7-game losing streak, but Vikings are 1-6 in that span. Both teams are 2-5 ATS in that span. Clearly, the Vikes are way over-valued here. Their D is without their best player (Harrison Smith) and their O is without theirs (no…not AP or Bridgewater….Center Joe Berger of course!). Jacksonville sports an 11th ranked D, so I like their chances of holding this terrible Vikings offense to few points. Value is with a home underdog here.
Philadelphia Eagles +2
Home underdogs galore this week! Sure the Eagles haven’t played well recently but this goes back to the whole ‘Buying Low and Selling High’ point. This is a team that is 4-1 at home. They’re getting both Mathews and Matthews back this week. And they’re facing a divisional opponent in a ‘revenge’ spot. Philly was -3 @ WAS when they met in October. They’re not an underdog at home. I think you know where the value lies.
Atlanta Falcons -5.5
I know Julio Jones is out (or going to be a decoy) but even still, we have a top-5 team going up against a bottom-5 team here. Atlanta needs this win if they’re to make the playoffs, and I expect them to play well. Fading Goff and Fisher is never a bad idea.
New York Giants +3.5
As good as Dallas is, they shouldn’t be laying over a FG in a divisional matchup on the road. Giants are 5-1 at home and my model has them at +1 in this one. There’s too much value to pass up here.
DEN @ TEN (no line)
Some books have this one around -1 TEN, but it all depends on whether or not Sieman will be confirmed as a starter. Kubiak said he’ll reveal it after Saturday’s walk-through. It’s an important factor of course, as this Denver offense is much more efficient with Sieman behind center. But the Denver D, fully healthy, isn’t a unit I’d fade right now. The Titans do have a better shot than most, due to their running game and the ability of Mariota to extend plays with his legs. If Sieman starts, I’d lean DEN. If Lynch starts, I’d lean TEN. Lean: TEN (if Lynch starts) and DEN (if Sieman does)
HOU @ IND -6.5
This Houston team is so hard to back. Their offense is totally inefficient (31st in the league. Only the Rams are worse), their D is regressing (without Joseph this week), and they have one of the worst special team groups in the league. Colts’ 4th ranked ST’s could do some damage in this one. Indy is on a short week, but they seem to be a much stronger team at this point. Colts do have some injury issues on D though which is worth monitoring. Lean: IND -6.5
CHI @ DET -7.5
No way should the Lions lay this much in a divisional matchup but it’s virtually impossible for me to back Barkley on the road. Plus Lions are getting back Levy for this one. PASS
NYJ @ SF -3
How can anyone lay points with 49ers, especially a FG? How can anyone back Petty on the road? If your answer is the same for both questions, you know what to do. PASS
SEA @ GB +3
Not fading a top-3 team on the road here when I have to lay a FG in Lambeau. Easy pass. Packers are too inconsistent to back them against a top-3 team. PASS
GamePlan
Cardinals vs. Dolphins
Play: Cardinals -2
Here's an interesting NFL matchup with two teams fighting to make themselves relevant in the Playoff chase in their respective Conferences. Arizona has been a disappointment at 5-6-1 so far this year, while the Dolphins have been quite a bit more competitive than expected. But that is where the misleading comparisons end.
Consider this. The Arizona Cardinals rank 9th in the NFL in Total Offense and an amazing 2nd in the NFL in total defense, yet have somehow managed to maintain a losing overall record to this point. The bottom line here has been turnovers and good old-fashioned bad luck. The Cardinals are a MUCH better team than they have shown to this point and should be mentally tough enough to make one last Playoff push before they write off this season.
Arizona is coming off a nice win over a pretty decent Washington Redskins team as it looked like Carson Palmer might finally be getting back some of the form he has shown in recent years. Running back David Johnson remains one of the better offensive weapons in the league, but the real strength here is a vastly underrated defensive unit which remains solid against the run and really good against the pass.
As for the Dolphins, they looked terrible early in the year which was somewhat predictable, but they came on quite a bit at mid-season to sneak into the Playoff chase. But Miami is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Baltimore Ravens where they were thoroughly dominated. The Dolphins still have a VERY shaky offensive line and that's not a good sign when you go up against a defense as fast and smart as Arizona. Miami's crazy 6-game winning streak which began in October included narrow wins over dreadful teams like the 49ers, the Rams and the Jets. And despite the winning record, they still rank just 28th in the league in passing offense as their offensive line simply does not hold up versus speed rushers.
We think the Cardinals get the job done here as a very small road favorite.
Joseph D'Amico
Saints +2
Tampa Bay has won 4 straight to share the top spot in the NFC South along with Atlanta. However, the NFL's most-prolific passing unit and the #2 overall scoring offense is coming to town. New Orleans comes off a loss to Detroit and which tied the team for their lowest scoring output of the season. The Saints will bounce back here against a Bucs team they have dominated, taking 8 of the L9 SU. New Orleans is also getting the bettors paid, covering their L7 on the road, going 7-1 ATS their L8 vs. NFC South foes, and riding a 7-2 ATS overall run. Tampa Bay is 20-44-1 ATS their L65 games played at home, 7-16 ATS their L23 games played in the month of December, and 1-8-1 ATS their L10 games played in Week 14.
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Dolphins
Play: Cardinals -2
This line has jumped favorites, but we feel Arizona is still the right side. First of all, the Cards are 13 points from four more wins. The offense is playing better of late with the passing game becoming less dependent on the deep route. RB David Johnson is not only running well, but was targeted 12 times in the passing game in last week's win. Keep defenses honest and the deep passing game begins to open up. Miami got bombed for 38 points by a pedestrian Baltimore offense last week. The defense struggles against the run and now the pass defense is struggling. Meanwhile, the Dolphin offense is little more than a one-trick pony, ranked 28th in yards passing per contest. Sharp money was all over Arizona mid-week and we were part of the action.
Tony George
Seahawks vs. Packers
Play: Packers +3
Yes, the Frozen Tundra lies in wait for the surging Seahawks this Sunday as Green Bay looks to continue their own surge to get to .500 on the record books with a win this Sunday. The Packers off a big win last week, and an impressive performance the week before, continue to make strides despite injuries that have wreaked havoc on them all season, especially at the RB position and in the secondary.
Seattle is off a win, a blowout win actually against a beat up and reeling Carolina team last week, but the inconsistency of the Seahawks has me concerned in this one against a motivated and quite frankly desperate Packer team at home. The Ocean Birds are just 2-3-1 on the road this season. The loss of Earl Thomas in the secondary is a huge hit for Seattle's vaunted defense, and I think it will affect their chemistry and performance at least in the short term, and against one of the better QB's in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers, I think it is a huge advantage for Green Bay to exploit this week as a rare home Underdog this weekend.
Seattle has not won at Green Bay since 1999, and I do not think the Packers will at any point let off the throttle in this game as their very playoff hopes hinge in the balance with the outcome of this game. The Packer are 6-1 against the spread their last 7 games in December and getting Clay Matthews back this Sunday as well which is a big plus, and despite a sore hamstring, Rodgers is playing near the top of his game. Home field worth 3 points here, I like the Packers to win the game outright.
Brandon Lee
Broncos vs. Titans
Play: Titans -2
It's still up in the air if Denver starting quarterback Trevor Siemian will start, but I like the Titans at home regardless. If he plays, he's going to be doing so at less than 100%. If he doesn't, Tennessee could turn this into a blowout at home, much like they did in their last home game against the Packers. There's a lot to like besides the quarterback injury, as the Titans come into this one off their bye week, giving them two full weeks to prepare. Tennessee's offense is built around their running game, which ranks 3rd in the NFL at 141.5 ypg. Marcus Mariota is also playing exceptional football for this only being his second year, as he comes in with 25 TD's to just 8 INT's. He doesn't figure to have a big day against a stingy Denver secondary, but teams have exposed the Broncos defense on the ground, as they are 28th against the run, giving up 122.8 ypg. I also think you have to make note of the Broncos not playing nearly as good on the road as they have at home and this being the biggest home game for Tennessee this late in the season in quite some time.
Chip Chirimbes
Bengals vs. Browns
Play: Browns +5½
For all of you that have been chasing the Browns) I have fallen to that) now is the time to cash your chips! Look last week was a 'gimme' for the Bengals as the Eagles were vulnerable on the road and Cincy needed it badly. But, guess what they are done and RGIII will be starting for Cleveland and just to have someone that once was a quarterback leading the offense help boost moral of a pathetic winless group that only seems to get worse as the year progresses.
Dave Price
Vikings vs. Jaguars
Play: Under 39½
This one is pretty self-explanatory when you look at the numbers. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but one of the worst offenses. They rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense (303.4 YPG) and 4th in scoring defense (17.4 PPG). But the Vikings are just 31st in total offense (296.8 YPG) and 26th in scoring offense (19.4 PPG). Most would be shocked by this, but the Jaguars actually have the NFL's best defense over the last five weeks, giving up just 258.2 yards per game. But the Jaguars rank just 27th in the league in scoring offense (18.7 PPG). This may be the lowest total of the week, but it's not low enough. The UNDER is 21-8-1 in Vikings last 30 games overall. The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Vikings last 22 road games.
Bryan Leonard
Texans +6½
We are well aware of the Houston offensive struggles this year, but what about the Indy defensive problems. Sure QB Luck is the superior signal caller in this game but Houston is the better all-around team. Our rating show that this line is a good 2 1/2 points higher than it should be. On the season Houston has a +15 explosive play advantage over the Colts.
Don't read too much into the Indy win last week over the Jets. Simply put New York quit in that game. The Jets would have made anyone look good last week. Let's take the generous points in this battle for the playoffs.
Bill Biles
Broncos vs. Titans
Play: Broncos
The Broncos should be getting their starting QB back for this one. They key for them in this one is to stop the Titans rushing attack. This is a huge game for the Broncos who are battling for their playoff lives. They have a monster schedule coming up and they need to win. Look for another gutsy win for the Broncos.
Jack Jones
Cardinals vs. Dolphins
Play: Cardinals -2
The Arizona Cardinals were on life support heading into last week. But they gutted out a huge 31-23 home win over the Washington Redskins to get them right back in contention for the playoffs. At 5-6-1, they are now 1.5 games back for the wild card spot and have head-to-head tiebreakers over two teams they are chasing in the Bucs and Redskins.
You could tell by the scene in the locker room how much that win meant to the players. And now I look for an inspired effort from them this week in Miami as they look to continue their push to make the postseason. And I totally agree with this line move in favor of the Cardinals as they opened as underdogs this week and now have been tabbed the betting favorite.
The biggest reason I agree is because there might not be a more underrated team in the NFL than the Cardinals. Their raw numbers stack up as well as anyone's, and I still believe this is a borderline Top 5 team because of it. The Cardinals actually lead the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 71.8 yards per game. They are 6th in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.
The Cardinals boast the league's No. 2 ranked defense, allowing just 297.2 yards per game. They have arguably the best running back in the NFL in David Johnson, who has rushed for 1,005 yards and 11 touchdowns, while also catching 64 balls for 704 yards and four more scores. If there record was better, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite to win the MVP. And Carson Palmer is coming off one of his best games of the season against Washington.
Miami is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. The Dolphins are 7-5 this season, but the raw numbers show that they're not as good as their record. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 45.3 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department, so they're in some pretty bad company.
And we saw last week how badly Miami struggled against the No. 1 defense in the NFL, which was the Baltimore Ravens. The Dolphins lost that game 6-38 while getting held to just 277 yards of offense. Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions in the loss. Now the Dolphins have to face the No. 2 defense in the NFL this week in the Cardinals, and the No. 3 pass defense, which is allowing just 199.3 yards per game through the air. Miami's offense really missed center Mike Pouncey, who was lost to injury a few weeks back and remains out.
The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS in December games over the last three seasons. Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games after having won six or seven of its last eight games coming in. The Dolphins are 14-43-1 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six December games. Bruce Arians is 6-0 ATS in December road games as the coach of Arizona.
Jimmy Boyd
Texans vs. Colts
Play: Colts -6½
Hard to not like Indianapolis laying less than a touchdown at home against the Texans. The Colts seemed to have figured things out and are playing their best football at this time. Houston on the other hand is trending in the wrong direction. So while they are sitting here in Week 14 with the same record, I think it’s clear who the better team is.
On top of that, this is a huge revenge game for the Colts, who still have be sick about how they lost that first meeting. Playing at home is a big advantage for Indianapolis. Houston is just 1-5 on the road this season with the only win coming against the Jaguars. On top of that, all 5 losses have come by at least 8 points.
While the Colts are averaging just 22.5 ppg at home, one of those came without Andrew Luck in the lineup. When Luck has played at home, the Indy is putting up 25.6 ppg. Given the success they had at Houston and the Texans allowing 25.7 ppg on the road, they should get to that mark here.
I just don’t see Houston being able to score enough here to keep pace. Brock Osweiler has been a major bust coming over from the Broncos. He’s got just 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. His 5.77 average per completion really tells the story.
While Luck and the Colts offense is going to get a lot of the attention, it’s the improved play on defense that has them going in the right direction. They are certainly capable of shutting down this Texans offense. Houston had just 235 total yards before racking up 179 in the final 7 minutes of regulation and overtime. Keep in mind the Texans come in only averaging 13.2 ppg and 284 ypg on the road this season.
Houston is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games in the 2nd half against teams who average 5.65 or more yards/play. The Texans are also just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games played in a dome. Colts on the other hand are 13-2 off a road win by 21 points or more.
Brandon Shively
Vikings vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +3
This is by far more of a play against the Vikings than it is on the Jaguars. The Jaguars are a team who have outgained their opponents this season by an average of 23 yards a game but are 2-10 in the record book. It’s hard to handicap turnovers in the NFL or predict them, but the Jaguars rank last in the NFL with a -18 mark in the give/take away department. On the other hand, the Vikings are +13 in the same department. Given that stat, one will say the play is on the Vikings here, but I am going on a limb and advising a small play on the Jaguars here.
If Blake Bortles continues to throw pick 6’s, then the Jaguars are going to have a hard time covering, but the team is in desperate need of a home win.
Jacksonville has an underrated defense ranked 4th in the NFL. Their pass defense ranks 2nd in fewest yards per game. Minnesota isn’t going to scare Jacksonville with their offense that is easy to predict where the ball is going. While Bortles has been interception prone, Sam Bradford has to throw the ball short part because his offensive line can’t protect him and the other part because his arm strength is weak.
Minnesota has the worst rushing attack in the NFL. Jacksonville will look to make the Vikings one-dimensional and they will look to force some turnovers. It starts with a pass rush against the Vikings vulnerable line.
The Vikings are 3-10 ATS their L13 as a road favorite. They are 0-4 ATS their last 4 when laying 3 points or more. They are 0-2 SU and ATS this year as a road favorite facing a team off a loss. The Vikings only scored 10 points in these 2 games against the Bears and Eagles. Now, the clincher for me is that when the Vikings are a road favorite off a loss against a team off a loss also, they are 1-15 ATS since 1989! I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line climb to +3.5 before kickoff, which is even better.