Otto Sports
Penn State at Purdue
Play: Purdue +12.5
Since getting blown out against Maryland 50-7, Purdue has rallied back with three straight solid performances. The Boilermakers managed to fire back with a win over Illinois, hung 500 yards on Iowa, and battled toe-to-toe with Nebraska for three quarters before eventually wearing down. All three performances weren't without plenty of hiccups, particularly Purdue's inability to run the football against the Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers (71 yards combined), but the attitude remains positive with this club following the departure of head coach Darrell Hazell.
And they certainly catch Penn State at a good time following its big win over Ohio State. You give the Nittany Lions credit for the victory but they were still outgained by 137 yards. Overall, the Nittany Lions' body of work isn't all that impressive. They were totally outclassed by Michigan and barely slipped past Minnesota 29-26 despite statistically dominating the game. And in the in over Maryland, Terps’ quarterback Perry Hills was forced to leave the game in the second quarter. We saw how important Hill was in last week's win and cover over Michigan State. The one thing Penn State does have in its favor is health as the defense was extremely banged up earlier this season. They've gotten a lot healthier and it showed as they held Ohio State to less than 5 yards per play.
It's hard however to ignore Penn State's track record on the road. Last season, they were 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS away from State College with the lone victory coming by a single point in a neutral setting over Maryland. And this season, PSU pushed in a 42-39 road loss at Pitt and was waxed at Michigan. Now they are being asked to lay double-digits off one of the program's biggest wins. Purdue is a very flawed team but capable of competing against a middle-of-the-pack Penn State squad.
Rob Veno
Boston College at NC State
Play: NC State -16
Boston College is likely thankful that this Saturday’s opponent neither has a dual threat quarterback nor do they run an up-tempo system. Last week the Eagles saw their third opponent this season with those traits and their defense was again hammered as Syracuse gained 532 total yards. Combined, Eric Dungey and Syracuse, Deshaun Watson and Clemson and Jerod Evans and Virginia Tech have gained a total of 1,511 yards and scored 133 points. Ryan Finley and the NC State Wolfpack don’t have the threat of the zone read option and they don’t go as fast as the previously mentioned teams which philosophically suits the Boston College defensive assets better. Relying upon their ground game led by Matt Dayes and the passing of Finley, NC State is averaging 5.6 yards per play which is equal to Clemson and a shade better than Syracuse’s 5.5.
The Wolpack defense takes a monumental step down in class here after facing the explosive Clemson and Louisville offenses the past two weeks. Boston College continued their miserable offensive ways last week gaining only 287 yards against a porous Syracuse defense and in the process, starting quarterback Patrick Towles injured his hamstring late in the game. It’s unclear whether Towles will be able to go this week or not (listed as questionable) but his combined 175 yards per game (134.6 ypg passing, 40.4 ypg rushing), 48.6% completions and 7-4 TD-INT ratio haven’t been difference makers anyway. The hope that new OC/QB coach Scott Loeffler could resurrect Towles college career and this offense’s production has become a major disappointment as they’ve averaged just 253.5 ypg in their four ACC contests.
Aside from the fundamentals which totally favor NC State on each side of the ball, there’s the fact that they need two more wins to become bowl eligible and they’re only going to be favored once more this season. 6-6 and a minor bowl is not what they set out for in 2016 but if they don’t get there, Dave Doeren could be an offseason casualty. Steve Addazio is more likely to end up in that spot unless his team comes up with an exceptionally strong finish. The Eagles have covered only two games all season and those were against Buffalo and UMass. They’ve only been in this double-digit home underdog role once and Clemson destroyed them 56-10. State is a physical team which figures to win in the trenches and coast to a much needed victory somewhere in the 33-13 range.
Andrew Lange
Baylor at Texas
Play: Over 69
After going under the total in two straight games, I look for Texas' beleaguered defense to be exposed yet again when they face Baylor on Saturday. It's been a constant theme this season that capable offenses can move the ball at will against the Longhorns. Over a three-game swatch against California, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma, UT allowed 1,734 yards at a startling 7.3 yards per play.
Perhaps more important to this handicapper is how flawed Baylor's defensive numbers are. The Bears' schedule comes up ultra-light with games against Northwestern State, SMU, Rice, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas. There is one game in particular that stands out as alarming and that's what Iowa State was able to do with the football against the Bears a few weeks back. The Cyclones posted arguably their best offensive showing of the year with 204 yards on the ground and 261 through the air. All told, ISU averaged over 6 yards per play.
Texas has had no trouble moving the football this season, and they've done it consistently. In seven games, the Longhorns have averaged no fewer than 5.2 yards per play. And outside of last week's game against slow paced Kansas State (62 plays), the Longhorns have remained married to an up-tempo attack with 82+ plays in every game except a blowout win over UTEP.
What stands out the most is the current number on this total. Texas-Iowa State was lined 69. Texas-Oklahoma closed 72.5. And Texas-Cal was 79.5. Baylor's fraudulent defensive numbers as well as Texas playing two straight unders have afforded us some value on playing the over.
River City Sharps
Memphis -6.5
We felt like Memphis would win outright last weekend vs. Navy and it looked good for a while, but too many mistakes cost the Tigers the chance at the upset. This is really more of a situational play than anything else as we will readily admit that this Tulsa team has shown us a lot this season. Even with their 5-2 record, the Golden Hurricane still surrender over 32 PPG and this is a really bad spot for Tulsa as they get an angry Memphis team headed home, where they have been money. The Tigers are a very solid 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. teams with a winning record, and Tulsa is 0-4 against the number in their last four tries vs. teams with a winning record. Tulsa gives up a stunning 42.3 PPG on the road this season and this is a terrible spot for the Golden Hurricane. Let’s grab this one before it gets to a full touchdown!
Brandon Shively
UL-Monroe vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State -20
Arkansas State is a team that is being overlooked somewhat because of their 0-4 start. The Red Wolves have since won two straight games and are playing with a week of rest and looked like a completely different football team two weeks when they held South Alabama to 7 points in a 17-7 win. This bye week now marks their second of the season as they had a week off before playing Georgia Southern in a weekday game. I feel this is a very advantageous part of their schedule, playing their 4th consecutive home game and a spot they can dominate against a struggling UL-Monroe team. The Red Wolves last went on the road September 16th at Utah State and have been camping at home ever since
Arkansas State is now 2-0 in the Sun Belt and looking to reclaim the championship after winning the Sun Belt title last year. The Red Wolves are 6-0 ATS the last 6 meetings against UL-Monroe. Arkansas State has won 80% of their games and covered 70% of the time from Game 6 and out over the last 5 years. They have now won 11 consecutive conference games after the win against South Alabama with ALL 11 wins coming by 10 points or more with an average score of 43-23. Arkansas State has finally got settled with a quarterback as that was their problem the first few games. Justice Hansen is an Oklahoma transfer who has a big arm. He has thrown 6 interceptions which is the one negative but I think he is the most talented QB in the Sun Belt and has turned the corner. The UL-Monroe secondary in not a threat and Hansen should have a field day behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country.
Monroe’s starting quarterback Garrett Smith is out with an injury. That leaves the job up to two freshmen quarterbacks and I can’t see either one doing much damage against a defense led by a bulk of juniors and seniors of Arkansas State. Chris Odom and Ja’von Rolland-Jones have combined for 8.5 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, and 5 QB hurries. Look for them to take advantage of a shaky UL-Monroe offensive line and force the young Monroe quarterback(s) out of the pocket which will lead to some bad throws and mistakes. All of this should lead into a few turnovers that the Red Wolves should capitalize on.
The UL-Monroe defense is giving up 297 rushing yards a game and 6.2 yards per rush as this is a defense that only returned 3 starters from last year and lost their entire front 7 from 2015. They only have 3 interceptions on the year They have not covered their last 4 games and are in a tough spot here playing their 5th road game of their last 7 games. It’s been a tough go for 1st year coach Matt Viator and his coordinators who all came from FCS schools.
Arkansas State has put up an average of 512 yards of offense the last 4 meetings, with an average final score of 43-18.
Marc Lawrence
Maryland vs. Indiana
Play: Maryland +5
Edges - Terrapins 3-0 ATS as road dogs with revenge off a SU underdog win. Hoosiers: Outstatted in each of the last four games; and 1-8 ATS as favorites of 3 or more points against foes off a DD win; and 4-0 start to the season last year; 2-7 finish. 4-1 start to this season and 0-3 next three games. With the Terps off an upset win over Michigan State, and playing with 19-point home loss revenge from a 47-28 loss to Indiana last year, we recommend a 1* play on Maryland.
Jesse Schule
West Virginia at Oklahoma St
Pick: Under
The Mountaineers have held opponents under 20 points in three straight games, and their defense ranks 15th nationally allowing just 17.8 points per game. They will look to extend their unbeaten run when they face Oklahoma State in Stillwater Saturday. The Cowboys have won three straight, but wins over Kansas and Iowa State were not that impressive. Mason Rudolph threw for just 220 yards and a TD on 16-of-24 passing last week. He didn't fare well in last year's OT win over West Virginia, throwing for 218 yards and three INTs on 20-of-40 passing. The Mountaineers defense has been dominant the last two weeks, allowing just two TDs and recording a pair of INTs in wins at Texas Tech and at home to TCU. Last season's meeting went to overtime, and still didn't see enough scoring to reach the total of 63.5. The total for this week's game has been bet up even higher, despite the fact that West Virginia has gone under in 21 of it's last 28 overall, and three straight versus the Cowboys.
Wunderdog
West Virginia @ Oklahoma St
Pick: Under 65.5
The Oklahoma State defense will be sky high, as will their fans, with unbeaten West Virginia in town. West Virginia totals are high because of their pass-happy style, but this Mountaineers defense has quietly been outstanding at #15 in the country allowing 17.8 points per contest. West Virginia is on a 21-7 run UNDER the total, including 17-4 UNDER in Big 12 play. They shut down TCU the last game, 34-10, holding the Frogs to 2-of-12 on third and fourth down. In back-to-back weeks the Mountaineers faced Big 12 opponents Texas Tech and TCU, whose high-potent offenses ranked in the nation's top 10. The Mountaineers held Texas Tech 280 yards and 38 points below their season average and followed that up by keeping TCU to 230 yards and 30 points below theirs. West Virginia is 20-6 UNDER the total on fieldturf and faces a ball-hawking Oklahoma State defense. Oddsmakers were expecting an offensive show last season, but it was 26-26 at the end of regulation -- and West Virginia failed to score in the extra frame. Oklahoma State's defense forced four turnovers. When they met two years ago on this field it was a 34-10 final, so look for both defenses to shine in this showdown.
Stephen Nover
Purdue +14
Purdue has been more competitive under interim coach Gerad Parker and catches Penn State in a monster letdown spot.
The Nittany Lions are on the road after just upsetting previously undefeated Ohio State at home last Saturday. It's a double whammy for Penn State, which is 3-12 ATS after covering a game and 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 away contests.
Penn State hasn't traveled in four weeks. This is only its third road game of the season. The Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road giving up an average of 45 1/2 points to Pittsburgh and Michigan. Penn State is 0-7-1 ATS the past eight times it has been a road favorite and has lost straight-up seven straight times away from home under James Franklin.
Parker's first game as interim head coach was last week. Purdue was a 24-point road 'dog to then ninth-ranked and now seventh-ranked Nebraska. The Boilermakers played hard, led 14-10 at halftime and gave the Cornhuskers a scare before losing, 27-14. The Boilermakers have covered seven of the last eight times following a loss.
Purdue has some decent skill position talent that can take advantage of Penn State giving up an average of 4.7 yards per rush and 203 yards rushing a game. The Boilermakers have been weak defensively, but received a boost from 345-pound tackle Lorenzo Neal, who recorded three tackles behind the line of scrimmage versus the Cornhuskers. Parker should have Purdue playing hard again this week with the team still alive for a bowl berth.
Matt Josephs
Clemson vs. Florida St
Play: Florida St +4½
Another big time ACC matchup and both are coming off a bye. Clemson is in the mix for the national championship while Florida State is playing this as it's one of their biggest games of the season. The Seminoles have allowed just 25 points in their last two games and are playing with confidence. Deondre Francois is improving while Dalvin Cook is one of the best RBs. The Tigers haven't played that great for the most part this year playing close games with Troy and NC State. FSU has been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just twice since 1992 and have split those two games. Clemson has covered just five of their last 13 road games. I just feel like Florida State is laying in the weeds.
Teddy Covers
Washington St vs. Oregon St
Play: Oregon St +13
Teddy enters the weekend riding a scorching 80% hot streak with his strongest releases – his Big Ticket Reports. Don’t miss Teddy’s Big Ticket Absolute Annihilator in college football or his Big Ticket NFL Shootout of the Month!
My clients and I cashed in betting against Washington State as road chalk last week in a ‘closer than expected’ non-covering win at Arizona State. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Cougs are being priced appropriately as double digit road favorites as they travel to Corvallis on Saturday Night.
This is the wrong price range for Washington State in a very hostile road environment. It’s also the wrong pointspread range for an Oregon State team that has been getting killed on the highway, but consistently playing competitive football at Reser Stadium.
There’s been one very consistent facet of Mike Leach coached teams, dating back to his tenure at Texas Tech – they have letdowns, not a coach who’s prone to guiding his team to extended winning streaks. In his fifth season at Washington State, the Cougars current five game winning streak is the longest of the Leach era. Only once during his extended tenure at Texas Tech did the Red Raiders win more than four in a row.
And when it comes to winning on the road by big margins, the Cougs again have a very limited track record. They won five games away from home last year, none by more than a touchdown. They didn’t win a road game by more than a touchdown the previous year either. They lost at Boise in one road game this year, and barely hung on to beat Arizona State last week, notching only one win by margin on the highway (against collapsing, offensively challenged Stanford in the game where Christian McCaffrey got hurt and the Cardinal fell apart without him.
Oregon State has won three of the last five meetings against Wassou in SU fashion, and a fourth loss – Washington State’s last visit to Reser – was a competitive, seven point defeat. This is not unusual for the Beavers. In previous ‘step-up’ games at home this year, Gary Anderson’s squad covered the spread against Boise, pulled the outright upset over Cal and hung within five points of Utah in another spread covering defeat.
And Oregon State has the appropriate game plan to keep the ball out of Cougs QB Luke Falk’s hands. The Beavers do one thing well – they run the football, gaining 177 yards on 5.8 per carry against Washington’s elite defense last week. They ran for 197 against Utah the previous week and 474 against Cal in their last win, at home, right here in Corvallis earlier this month. Expect a competitive contest, not a blowout.
Bill Biles
Baylor -3.5
Baylor is coming off their bye fresh to face the Texas Longhorns. Baylor is averaging 43.7 Points per game, Texas does not have the defense or offense to be able to keep up with them. Baylor has their eyes set on the playoffs and a loss to Texas knocks them out. Baylor wins this one.
Power Sports
Clemson vs. Florida State
Pick: Florida State
The idea of Florida State being an underdog, at home no less, is pretty insane. Note that from 2012-14, not one time did the Seminoles take the field getting points. It happened once last year, at Clemson, and they lost 23-13 w/ the game falling right on the number (+10). Jimbo Fisher's team has been a dog already once this year & that turned out well as they beat Miami, 20-19 down in Coral Gables. This, however, is a whole different ballgame. They are catching points in Talahassee for the first time since 2011, which is the only time it's happened during Jimbo Fisher's tenure. That game saw the 'Noles lose to #1 Oklahoma, 23-13, but I foresee a different outcome Saturday night.
Now that we've established the history involved here, let's talk about the opponent. For the second year in a row, Clemson is unbeaten when taking on FSU. Last year, the Tigers came in ranked #3 in the country en route to a trip to the Championship Game. While they did win 23-13 in Death Valley, note that they trailed early (10-3) and it was a tie game (13-13) entering the fourth quarter. This year's Tigers team just doesn't seem quite as strong. Two weeks ago, they were "tooth and nail" w/ NC State, needing OT to win that game. They have had a lot of good fortune go their way as in four wins by a TD or less. Last year, they were 4-1 SU in that department. Eventually, like last year's Title Game, they have to lose one of these.
FSU came into the season w/ legit national title aspirations, but those were doused w/ a pair of early losses. One was the absolute embarrassment in Louisville, by a score of 63-20. The other was a game where they gained nearly 600 total yds of offense, but lost on a last second FG to North Carolina. They have since won B2B games and while they were both close. note that they outgained Wake Forest 442-252, so it was more one-sided than the 17-6 final indicates. I point to the fact that Clemson has had exactly ONE win streak in the history of this rivalry ('05-'07). Other than that, they have never beaten Florida State consecutive years. I would not be shocked to see an outright upset here as some of the nation's remaining unbeatens are due to fall.
Ian Cameron
Cincinnati at Temple
Play: Over 53.5
Temple’s offense has come on strong in recent games which has played a pivotal role in its current 5-2 SU, 7-0 ATS streak. Quarterback Phillip Walker can still be prone to turnovers at times but he’s thrown 11 touchdowns to seven interceptions in Temple’s last nine games. Meanwhile, the ground attack, led by running backs Ryquell Armstead and Jahad Thomas, has been productive at 170 ypg and 4.5 ypc. Cincinnati’s defense has been a subpar unit for much of the campaign giving up 5.5 yards per play and they’ve yielded 40+ points to better offensive foes like South Florida and Houston as well as 504 total yards to Purdue. I expect Temple’s offense which has scored 27+ points in seven straight games to have another solid day on the ground and with play action pass against this suspect Cinci defense.
Cincinnati’s offense seemed to get a boost of energy and momentum last week when former starter Gunner Kiel got his first start of the season after losing his job. Kiel threw for for 348 yards and four touchdowns with an interception in last week’s 31-19 win against East Carolina. Cincinnati racked up 513 total yards against a rested and fresh Pirates defense that was coming off an extra bye week because their game against Navy was postponed due to a hurricane threat the week prior.
Temple still has one of the upper echelon defenses in the conference but it’s worth noting they have surrendered 34, 25 and 30 points in their last three games against Memphis, UCF and South Florida who have comparable offenses to Cincinnati. Temple knocked off Cincinnati 34-26 last season when these teams met in a game that sailed over the total of 55.5. This year’s total is a bit lower and I think we have two offenses currently in better form than their overall season numbers would indicate which leads to some value.
Freddy Wills
Middle Tennessee St vs. Florida Int
Play: Florida Int +17
I will take FIU in this game as Middle Tennessee is coming off their biggest win in the history of their program on the road against Missouri. There is no doubt that has moved the line here quite a bit. I believe MTSU got a bit of a misleading victory considering they were +3 in TO margin. On the other side FIU was just -16 yards in total offense against La Tech, a similar opponent. They were actually 24-18 in first downs and converted 47% on third down. A late kickoff return for TD took away their cover and give us line value this week.
FIU has been much better since they fired their head coach and have bene better vs. the pass in conference play than Middle Tennessee with a 117 QB rating allowed compared to a 141 QB rating allowed which is key since both of these teams like to pass more than run. This is a tough spot for Middle Tennessee in back to back road games after a huge win. I wouldn’t be shocked to see FIU pull the upset.