Brad Powers
So Mississippi at Louisiana Tech
Play: Louisiana Tech
We like the situation here for Louisiana Tech who comes in off a bye. In the game prior to the bye, they missed a couple of extra points that would’ve given them the win as they lost by only 1 to UAB. They also have a 1-point loss at South Carolina so they are better than their 3-3 SU record indicates. The Bulldogs will be playing with revenge from a loss to Southern Miss last year. However there wasn’t much importance placed on the game as La Tech had already clinched a berth in the CUSA Championship game while Southern Miss had to win to get to bowl eligibility. Revenge is sweet!
Andre Ramirez
Wyoming vs. Boise State
Play: Over 44½
There is plenty of talent on both sides of the ball in this game as much as you'll see between any two Group of 5 programs in the country. That said, I expect this one to be decided on the sidelines. The Broncos are coming off of a big win over San Diego State, but there's more to that game as you peel back the layers. Boise State didn't do much offensively and relied on big plays from the defense and special teams to jump ahead. Craig Bohl's Cowboys won't rely on the run like San Diego State did and will be much more careful with the football. On defense, I expect Wyoming to key on Broncos running back Alexander Mattison to take him away from Rypien as often as possible, leading to a sound. According to my algorithm, I have Wyoming winning 28-24. Lay the money on the over here.
Bob Balfe
Arizona -3.5
CAL was supposed to be one of the bottom feeders of the PAC-12 but have been pretty impressive this year with the few tools they have. This passing defense has held their own against some really good quarterbacks. The problem for CAL is they are facing a heavy run team. Arizona is so good on their offensive line and have so many guys that can run the ball including the quarterback. CAL is not good enough offensively to stay in this football game. Look for the Wildcats to control the clock and score on the ground at will.
Yankees/Astros Over 8
Game 7 is up for grabs. Who will face the Dodgers in the World Series? The Astros have been great at home and their bats woke up last night. The Yankees are not a good road team, but they do have the better starter as of late on the mound in CC Sabathia. This is going to be a game for the ages. I think both the pitching matchups favor the hitters tonight and we should see a higher scoring game. This is going to be an instant classic.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +107 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Last Saturday, Philadelphia beat Washington 8-2. The Flyers have outscored their last three opponents by a count of 13-4. They’ve also scored five goals or more in four of their seven games thus far so they have plenty of market appeal at the moment but let’s not get carried away here. The goal of every hockey team is to possess the puck and create as many chances as possible while limiting the opposition to the same. If we apply that to this game, Philadelphia has little chance of winning. Of course it’s never that easy but Edmonton is the NHL’s top possession team. They have created more high danger scoring chances per game than any team in the NHL and they are also tops in puck possession numbers. The Oilers have outshot their last two opponents by a ridiculous count of 92-52. One of those games was against the defensively strong Hurricanes. Edmonton lost that game, 5-3 but outshot Carolina, 51-21. The Oilers have zero regulations wins over their last five games so their stock remains far lower than it should be. Rest assured that we’re going with the best of it here with better goaltending and a vastly superior overall team.
While the Oilers are the top possession team in the NHL, the Flyers rank 24th just behind the Buffalo Sabres, who are a +220 dog today in Boston. Philly lost 1-0 to Nashville in its last game. The game prior, they allowed the Panthers 41 shots but Michal Neuvirth stood on his head in a 5-1 victory. The good news is that Philadelphia signed Brian Elliott in the offseason to a large contract and just like Winnipeg is not going to pay Steve Mason 4M a year to sit on the bench, the Flyers aren’t going to pay this stiff 2.75M to sit on the bench either. Elliott gets the start here and we couldn’t be happier. The Calgary Flames learned last year that Elliott is a problem, not a solution. Don’t get us wrong, as there are plenty of things to like about the Flyers including a more balanced attack and a quicker and better defense. However, the Flyers offer up much more value as a dog and not as the chalk against a team that is playing great without the results to show for it.
San Jose +122 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Sharks hit the road for the first time this season with a stop in New Jersey last night. Martin Jones made 28 saves in a 3-0 shutout win and the Sharkies have now won three of their last four games. Despite an offseason shakeup, San Jose has picked up right where it left off last season. The Sharks are getting scoring from all over the place, as Joe Pavelski is one of four players with at least two tallies and they’ve had 10 different goal scorers already this season. This is still a very strong puck possession team and the early season numbers back it up. The Sharkies have only been outshot in one game this year. They are sixth in Corsi For (an advanced statistic used to measure shot attempt differential while at even strength play) at 53.2% and they are also 5th in Fenwick at 54.4%, Fenwick is like Corsi but removes blocked shots from the formula. San Jose has found some early success with a 3-3 start to the season but its results could be much better. The Sharks are 25th in PDO (Save % + Shooting %) at 97.2 which suggests more pucks should be making their way to the back of the net as a correction in their "puck luck" to the good is likely forthcoming.
The Islanders have had a similar 3-3-1 start to the season but they have been outshot in three straight games including a 4-3 shootout win over the Rangers at MSG after returning from a west coast road trip. A popular angle in the market is to fade a team coming off a big roadie but the Islanders always get up for games in Manhattan so we’ll look to this second game back on the east coast as a potential flat spot. The Islanders have been slow starters this season, scoring first in only two of their seven games. This is a middle of the pack team under the hood, as the Islanders haven't been unlucky with a PDO of 99.5. The Isles are 17th in offensive zone starts and 15th in Fenwick % which means they are not dictating the play.
The Sharks played a very strong road game in Jersey yesterday and we have no reservations about looking their way on the second half of this back to back. San Jose goes from a -130 road favorite yesterday to taking back a tag and that could be because backup 'tender Aaron Dell is in the crease but he’s more than capable. Dell was on the wrong end of a hard-luck loss in his one start earlier this year but we’ll pay more attention to his .935 save percentage. With Thomas Greiss between the pipes for the Islanders, we don’t have the second best goalie here. Lastly, the Islanders home in Brooklyn remains one of the worst home-ice advantages in the league. In fact, it’s so bad that it’s an advantage for a well-suited visitor like the one here.
Florida +126 over WASHINGTON
OT included. You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the Capitals 4-3 OT win in Detroit last night to run their record to 4-3-1. With just over 2½-minutes left in the third and Detroit leading 3-2, Dylan Larkin flipped the puck over the glass in his own end and took a delay of penalty game for it. Washington then pulled its goalie for a 6-on-4 advantage and buried a puck past Petr Mrazek. In OT, Detroit took another penalty and Alex Ovechkin buried the game winner. The game before that, Washington lost 2-0 to Toronto but the high danger scoring chances were 14-4 in favor of the Leafs. The game before that, Washington was buried 8-2 by Philadelphia. The Washington Capitals rank dead last in the NHL in high scoring danger chances against while the Panthers rank 5th in scoring chances.
We faded Washington last night and cited that they are going to be a prime fade target of ours until there is a market adjustment. Braden Holtby will bail them out more than a few times this year but Philip Grubauer will be manning the net tonight. Again, the Capitals are as beatable as any team in the NHL. They have the worst defense and the perhaps the worst bottom six forwards. Just stay out of the box against this dumpster fire team and they cannot win.
Florida is 2-4 and has dropped three straight but it’s because Roberto Luongo is finished. With good goaltending, the Panthers might be 6-0 right now and this discussion would be headed in a different direction. The beautiful thing about results is that the truth is not in them. Such is the case with both these teams. Florida is a monster possession team that ranks behind Edmonton, Columbus and San Jose. They have registered 48, 40, 46 and 41 shots on net in four of their last five games. The Cats have dominated puck possession in all games but one this season but Luongo can’t make a key stop. When the Panthers opened the year with two against TB and split them, they badly outplayed the Bolts both games. Florida has played Pittsburgh twice, Tampa twice and Philly and St. Louis once each and has made all those teams look slow for stretches. Meanwhile, the Caps are 0-4 against top-16 teams and will continue to lose games at a high rate. This is very likely going to be another one of the Caps many losses this year and we’re not going to relent on that for a second. The fade continues and the profits will follow.
Pass MLB
Chris Jordan
My first complimentary winner for tonight is on the Mississippi Rebels, as I think they're a value pup at home against the LSU Tigers. And as long as the book is offering you +6' or +7, you buy yourself the half point up in this game.
Fresh off an upset win over Auburn, I truly have to wonder which LSU team will be present when these SEC powers meet. I'm also concerned the Tigers will be looking past this game and on to Alabama.
The Tigers certainly better not sleep on the Rebels' defense, which started slow this season, but has improved and looks of late. The pass rush has been outstanding, and I do expect to see Breeland Speaks and Marquis Haynes putting plenty of pressure on LSU quarterback Danny Etling.
On the other side of the ball, there is an Ole Miss offense that is suddenly firing on all cylinders, thanks to Shea Patterson and Jordan Wilkins. If the Tigers are sleeping today, I suspect we'll see big plays on the home turf.
Bottom line, Ole Miss has nothing to lose and can leave it all on the field to come away with a win tonight. But LSU is on the road in two weeks to face Alabama, and the Tigers could be looking that far ahead down the road.
Take the home dog, and buy the half point.
1* MISSISSIPPI
Jim Feist
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
Play: Wake Forest +4.5
Wake Forest scared the defending National Champs two weeks ago losing 28-14. The Deacons got last week off to help prepare for this contest. WF has the nations 12th best defense in the country allowing just 16.7 ppg. The Deacons are 4-2 overall and 1-2 in conference play. Bot teams are covering well, with Wake at 4-1-1 ATS and Tech at 5-0 ATS. Both offenses are evenly matched while defensive not goes to the Deacons. Wake getting 4.5 points here and I think they can win outright.
Oskeim Sports
Notre Dame -3.5
My math model favors Notre Dame by over a touchdown so we are getting excellent line value with the modest home favorite. Notre Dame possesses a potent offense that is averaging 40.0 points and 471 total yards at 6.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.3 to a mediocre attack.
The strength of Notre Dame’s offense is its powerful ground game that is averaging 308 rushing yards per game at 6.9 yards per carry against teams that would combine to allow just 4.4 yards per rush attempt to a mediocre backfield.
The Irish also have the ability to create explosive plays as evidenced by the fact that they are averaging 11.8 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow 15.2 yards per point. After its 20-19 loss to Georgia in Week Two, a loss that doesn’t look nearly as bad today, Notre Dame has scored 49, 38, 52 and 33 points, respectively, in each of its last four games.
The Irish should be able to move the ball against a pedestrian USC defense that is 0.3 yards per play better than average (5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yards per play).
Overall, Notre Dame’s offense owns a 0.8 yards per advantage from the line of scrimmage over the Trojans’ stop unit. Both teams should be able to move the ball in this game as USC’s offense is 0.8 yards per play better than average (6.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yards per play to a mediocre attack).
While the Irish have been good on the defensive side of the ball (0.5 yards per play better than average), the Trojans’ attack owns a 0.3 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage.
USC arrives in town with a 6-1 record, but the Trojans have been perpetually overvalued by the betting market. Indeed, USC is 1-6 ATS this season (0-5 ATS L/5) and has posted a 3-9 ATS record in its last twelve road games and a 7-17 ATS mark on the road versus teams with a winning home record.
In contrast, the Irish are a profitable 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games following a bye week and 37-18-2 ATS in the month of October. Let’s also note that the favorite is a perfect 5-0 ATS in this series, while the home team has covered the spread in four straight meetings.
Since 1992, USC is 0-9 ATS on the road following back-to-back straight-up wins as a favorite, provided the Trojans failed to cover the spread in each of those two games. The Trojans are also a 61.5% ATS losing proposition following consecutive wins over the last 26 years. The difference in this game will be Notre Dame’s 5th-ranked rushing attack and 18th-ranked red zone offense against an overrated USC stop defense that is 67th-best in the nation.
Finally, Notre Dame possesses the 15th-best scoring defense and the18th-best red zone defense. Lay the number with the Fighting Irish and invest with confidence.
The Prez
Oklahoma at Kansas St
Play: Oklahoma -13.5
The Sooners travel to the Little Apple to take on the Wildcats in a Big 12 conference event. Kickoff is slated for 4:00 p.m. ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. Free College Football Best Bet: Oklahoma at Kansas State.
The ranked Oklahoma Sooners (-14, 55) and always tough Kansas State Wildcats contest today doesn't have the same feel as in years past. The battles between Wildcats' head coach Bill Snyder and the OU Sooners Bob Stoops were legendary. The rivalry goes back to the first year that Stoops took over the Oklahoma program and doing so by leaving Snyder’s staff in Manhattan.
The Wildcats come in off back-to-back losses at Texas (40-34 in double-overtime) and last week and defensive-minded TCU (26-6). We give the 'Cats a pass last week after losing starting quarterback Jesse Ertz to a knee injury in the loss to the Longhorns. Ertz also didn't play in last week's loss to the Horned Frogs. Backup quarterback Alex Delton misfired for most of the day. Delton connected on just 11-of-29 passes for 146 yards and rushed for a mere 39 yards on 19 carries.
Snyder told the Kansas City media that "Jesse will be able to play," Snyder said during Monday's weekly Big 12 teleconference. "I don't know when exactly it's going to be. He'll be back on the field."
The Sooners are off an emotional Red River Rivalry win in Dallas. OU defeated Texas by a 29-24 margin in the showdown this past Saturday. Lincoln Riley's squad is led by quarterback Baker Mayfield who has never lost in Manhattan. In fact OU hasn’t lost on the Wildcats home turf since 1996.
The Bill Belichick of college football, Snyder, didn't offer information on the status of the injured Ertz. As has been the case for seemingly 100 years under Snyder the coach played coy with the media. Considering this game is expected to be played in thunderstorms it isn't likely that Ertz will play with his current knee injury. If Ertz does give it a go, OU’s defense will be coming after him early and often.
The Sooners are still in the Big 10 and College Football title hunt. Oklahoma has won 13 consecutive true road games which is tied with No #1 Alabama Crimson Tide for the longest active streak in the country and that continues on Saturday.
Tony Finn
Kentucky at Mississippi St
Play: Kentucky +12
The Wildcats and Bulldogs tangle in an SEC matchup scheduled for a 4:00 p.m. ET Saturday afternoon kickoff at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. At 5-1 on the season Kentucky is just one win away from being bowl eligible and are the second place team in the Eastern Division behind Georgia. Mississippi State has won four games against two losses this season and are 1-2 in conference play.
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops's squad has played to the level of their competition. The Wildcats have struggled at times surviving games against lesser talent. Kentucky has a combined margin of victory of just 21 points against the likes of Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan and Missouri. Three school with a combined record of just 4-14.
There isn't a large amount of information to take from Mississippi State's latest win over BYU. The Cougars travel hard and take on all comers but have been a minus-factor this year when it comes to distributing strength of schedule numbers. The Bulldogs are at their best on the ground and enter today's matchup averaging over 250 yards per game rushing.
The Wildcats had an added week to prepare for the 'Dogs. Having a bye week has allowed "Cats linebacker Jordan Jones to get healthy and he is expected to dress and play today. Senior quarterback Stephen Johnson had his best performance of the season against the Tigers two weeks ago throwing for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns against one interception. Running back Benny Snell Jr. is fifth in the SEC in rushing yards per game (87.2) and will be the offensive focus today in this SEC road affair.
The Kentucky defense is surrendering less than 100 yards per game rushing. The Wildcats rank third in the SEC and 10th nationally (97.2 ypg) against the run.
Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald ran for two touchdowns and threw for two others as the Bulldogs defeated Brigham Young 35-10 on Saturday in Starkville. Again, the win over BYU has only helped us with today's play against the 'Dogs. Mississippi State is offering Kentucky a double digit handicap in a game in which Kentucky has some important edges. The Bulldogs have produced at least 177 rushing yards in every game, including 306 on 53 carries (5.8) last week against BYU. Running back Aeris Williams and signal caller Fitzgerald lead the club in rushing. Both Williams (5.4) and Fitzgerald (6.5) are averaging better than five yards per carry.
A big part of today's inflated market value on Mississippi State comes due to their 37-7 win over LSU. That victory preceded sour performances. The Bulldogs dropped consecutive games in Georgia and Auburn before finding a win against a lesser BYU team. Head coach Dan Mullen has lost to Kentucky just once during his Bulldogs tenure, but this isn’t a typical Wildcats team that’s coming into Davis Wade Stadium.
The strength of the Bulldogs offense is their running game. Producing their season average in this category will be difficult against a solid Wildcats front seven. Kentucky has the special teams edge both kicking and returning and while the Wildcats didn't impress against lesser foes this season had it not been for a fourth-quarter collapse at home against Florida the Wildcats would be undefeated.
Executive Sports
Troy vs. Georgia State
Play: Georgia St +9.5
Play Against Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) with an excellent rushing D allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (55-19, 74% since 1992.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
The last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
OC Dooley
TCU -37
With tonight's game nationally-televised on "network" television high-ranked TCU could actually do major damage to themselves by failing to cover a spread which has actually dropped from the opening offshore figure of 38 points. According to the Horned Frogs veteran HEAD COACH his players have been made aware that the team has actually struggled in 5 consecutive series clashes against lowly Kansas who is 0-43 on the road long term (one away from matching an all-time NCAA record completed in 1936). It was a year ago when TCU (-30) literally survived a ONE point game at Kansas. The last time the Jayhawks visited tonight's location TCU (-46) once again survived a close 23-17 final verdict so the team is on alert so to speak even though Kansas in the past two weeks have been outscored by a combined 110-to-19 on the scoreboard. Texas Christian has actually failed to cover the spread 9 consecutive times as a home favorite but as mentioned above tonight's line has actually dropped