Jack Jones
Fresno St vs. San Diego St
Play: Fresno Sta +7½
The betting markets have been slow to catch on to how good the Fresno State Bulldogs are this season. I think they're still behind the eight ball here as the Bulldogs are catching 7.5 points at San Diego State in a game they will likely win outright tonight.
Jeff Tedford came back to college football in a good situation here as there were 16 returning starters for Fresno State. And he has made the most out of it. The Bulldogs are 4-2 this season with their two losses coming against two of the best teams in college football in Alabama and Washington, and they covered the spread in both games.
In fact, the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. They are coming off a 38-0 beat down of New Mexico last week, which is even more impressive when you consider the Lobos were coming off a bye week. I'm not so sure that Fresno State isn't the best team in the Mountain West this season in what has proven to be a wide open conference.
This is an awful spot for the San Diego State Aztecs. They will be deflated after suffering their first loss of the season last week, a 14-31 upset home loss to Boise State. The air has been let out of the balloon now as the Aztecs realize they won't be the Group of 5 representative for a New Year's Bowl. I don't expect them to get back up off the mat in time to put away a game Fresno State team by more than a touchdown this week.
The Bulldogs have really turned the corner since making the change to Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion a few weeks back. He has come in and lit it up by completing 65.8% of his passes for 966 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.7 per attempt. He has also rushed for 133 yards and 5.3 per carry, adding a nice dual-threat element to the offense that Chason Virgil simply did not have.
And this is actually a great matchup for Fresno State because their strength on defense is stopping the run, and San Diego State is an awful passing team that relies almost exclusively on the running the football. The Bulldogs are only allowing 111 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that normally average 157 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider they've had to face Alabama and Washington.
Fresno State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with SDSU.
Cappers Club
Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan +3
The Western Michigan Broncos and the Eastern Michigan Eagles face off on Saturday, and with the Eagles playing teams tough I like their value.
The Eagles come into this game with a 2-4 record, but don't let that fool you, they have been playing teams really tough.
They come into this game having covered the spread in five of the six games they have played so far this year.
Coming into the last three games they were a combined 32 point underdogs but only lost those three games by a combined 10 points.
The Broncos also had to play their game on Sunday instead of Saturday last week so they had one less day to prepare.
Some trends to note. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Teddy Davis
West Virginia vs. Baylor
Play: West Virginia -9
Maybe this line is to good too be true, but I will bite here on it. I think this Baylor team is completely done with this season. They were destroyed last weekend @ Oklahoma St 59-16.
Baylor is giving up a terrible 9.1 yards per pass attempt and West Virginia averages 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Baylor is being out gained by over 100 yards per game. I like the come back from behind on West Virginia last week which I believes carries over here to this game. Baylor is terrible and West Virginia should have no problem covering
Steve Merril
Utah State vs. UNLV
Play: Utah St +3½
This line was quickly bet up from +2.5 to +4 earlier this week as the public wanted nothing to do with Utah State after back-to-back SU/ATS home losses. However, this line is starting to come back down and is still too high as my power ratings make this game a Pick'em. This road trip might actually help the Aggies refocus and Utah State was excellent in their most recent road game four weeks ago; an easy 61-10 win at San Jose State. UNLV blew a 27-0 lead at Air Force last week and lost 30-34. A hangover is definitely possible this week, and UNLV is just 1-2 SU/ATS at home this season which includes the biggest upset loss in history when Howard won 43-40 as a 44-point underdog at UNLV in September. The Rebels' defense has struggled this season, allowing 33.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.
Vic Duke
Wyoming vs. Boise State
Play: Wyoming +14
Pretty good value with Wyoming - coming off back to back wins as much heralded QB Josh Allen starting to find his rhythm. He does miss RB Brian Hill as the running game is suffering. Nevertheless, we'll ride the momentum with the Cowboys who are now 10-1 ATS in October. They are not ready to hang with the big boys yet - getting waxed by Iowa and Oregon; however, they're 10-2 ATS against conference foes and 7-0 ATS as a road dog of less than 23 points vs an opponent off back to back wins. Sure, Boise is coming off some impressive wins and looking to avenge last year's loss; however, Boise just 3-13 ATS at home. Blue turf no longer an automatic under HC Harsin. We'll take the two touchdowns.
Scott Rickenbach
Maryland vs. Wisconsin
Play: Maryland +24½
It is homecoming weekend in Madison and the Badgers, make no mistake about it, are a very good football team. However, one thing that has benefited Wisconsin this season is a rather weak schedule. As it stands now, the Badgers have not played a single team that currently has a winning record. I am well aware of the fact that Maryland has had injuries at the QB position and certainly the Terrapins aren't going to march into Madison and get an upset win. However, I do like the Terps to keep this one closer than many are expecting. Road wins at Texas and Minnesota help give Maryland some added confidence heading into this one. Yes the Terrapins got annihilated at Ohio State recently but just the fact that the Terps faced a powerhouse like the Buckeyes gives them an edge over a Badgers team that has truly faced an easy schedule this season. Look for the Terrapins to improve to 8-4 ATS when they are entering a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU losses.
TJ Pemberton
Maryland vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -24
The Wisconsin Badgers are 5th in the country and knocking on the door to make a playoff run this season. The Badgers are 6-0 and unbeaten this season. Wisconsin beat Purdue 17-9 last week and are 4-0 on their home field. The Badgers have covered the spared in five of their last six games after a against the spread loss. Wisconsin hasn't had a tough schedule so far this season and are a much better team than the Maryland Terrapins. Wisconsin had both a rushing and a receiving touchdown last week.
The Maryland Terrapins are 3-3 on the season and have lost two straight games. The Terrapins are 5th in the Big Ten East and lost last week at home to Northwestern. Maryland is 2-1 on the road this season. The Terrapins have covered just two of their last nine road games. The Maryland Terrapins put up 21 points in last weeks loss. Maryland was led by QB M. Bortenschlager who threw for 255 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Terrapins did not have a RB rush for over 40 yards and D. Moore had two receiving touchdowns.
Wisconsin is laying a big number here but they will be on their home field. The Badgers want to break into the top 4 in the nation and will look to have a blowout win on Saturday. Maryland is not playing good football right now and has a tough test ahead of them
Mike Anthony
Wyoming vs. Boise State
Play: Wyoming +14
Wyoming is better than Boise State in their passing game - and the volume of attempts/game makes Josh Allen an intriguing player to keep an eye out in this matchup. Wyoming comes in playing really well - as shown with 3 in a row. The WRs of Wyoming have also been pretty tough to cover, on the whole. Austin Conway may not have top end speed at the WR position but still gets tough yards - and Trey Woods is a problem up the middle, the Dline of Boise State are going to struggle stopping that guy in motion. Right now Jr LB Jabril Frazier is the leading the Broncos on the team with 4 sacks - but I still don't see him leading the team to a win here. And Boise State on the passing side of the ball are just not consistent enough, with poor QBing and bad decisions. This Boise State team has to play with confidence on all sides of the ball and with how one dimensional they have been, that is hard to imagine. Brett Rypien doesn't have the skills or tools to be a knockout QB for Boise State. He has not done anything near enough during the season Cowboys are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wyoming keeps this one close behind their passing attack.
Big Al
Edmonton vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -105
With a 20-year-old who's considered the best player in the world and a roster full of other very talented youngsters, you have to marvel at the Edmonton Oilers. But you also have to wonder, why they don't win more games and why they can't seem to put together winning campaigns on a regular basis? In fact, 2016 was the first winning season that the Oilers have logged since all the way back in 1987-1988 (they lost in the second round last year). You would think that a team like this with so many young weapons would come out firing this season, but so far they have done just the opposite. Edomonton has managed to tally just 13 goals in its first six games, including a 2-1 overtime victory in its last game in Chicago vs. the Blackhawks. After netting 18 goals in three straight against the Predators, Caps, and Panthers, the Flyers threw in a clunker against the Preds in their last one, losing 1-0 here at home. Look for them to bounce back tonight as the home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Take Philly.
Nelly
Eastern Michigan + over Western Michigan
After last season's bowl breakthrough the Eagles are just 2-4 but four straight defeats have come by a total of 17 points with a seven-point loss in overtime. Back at home after three straight road games this should be a huge game for the Eagles facing their rival who won the MAC last season. Eastern Michigan doesn't run the ball well but they catch Western Michigan on a short week with the Broncos unlikely to match the success of last season. This looks like a great opportunity for a strong Eagles performance with Western coming off a tough loss on Sunday against Akron and now facing a short week on the road vs. a program that has been easy to overlook in recent years. Western Michigan is just 7-12 ATS in this series since 1998 and the Eagles put up 461 yards on the eventual MAC champions last season in one of the toughest games in the perfect MAC run for Western Michigan. This team isn't accustomed to dealing with losses and off the homecoming defeat last week in a taxing weekend, effectively preparing to play twice, the Broncos are in a clear fade spot. Western Michigan is 1-2 on the road this season with the lone win coming in seven overtimes against a marginal Buffalo team. Eastern Michigan allows only 4.2 yards per carry on the ground as while the road favorite will have a ground edge they won't be able to overwhelm the Eagles who have a more proven quarterback and more potential in the passing game.
Harry Bondi
BAYLOR (+9.5) over West Virginia
Baylor is 0-6 for the first time since 1969 and got blown out last week at Oklahoma State, but despite all of that the Bears have shown improvement over the last month and will be as healthy as they have been all season for tonight’s game. The last time Baylor played on this field they nearly pulled off a shocking upset over Oklahoma as a 28-point dog and we expect the same kind of effort tonight in front of the home crowd. Meanwhile, with a defense that’s allowing 32 points per game and 6.5 yards per play on the road, West Virginia can’t be trusted to lay this big of a number, especially when you factor in that they have a huge home game on deck next week against Oklahoma State. Take the home dog!
Jack Brayman
My free play for Saturday is on Michigan State laying points against Indiana.
Has anyone paid attention to this Spartan defense?
Michigan State, fresh of back-to-back road victories at Michicagn and Minnesota, has the fifth-best defense in the nation, allowing a mere 263.8 yards per game. The rushing D is eighth best, the passing D is 13th best and the pass-efficient effort is fourth best.
The Spartans are giving up just 18.2 points per game, and are looking to maintain its status and keep up with Ohio State and Penn State in the East Division of the Big 10. Penn State has Michigan today, so a loss by the Nittany Lions, and a win by the Spartans could leave Michigan State in a first place tie with Ohio State, which is idle.
Now, I will say, Indiana has a respectable defense. But the Hoosiers' offense is not strong enough to stay on the field long enough to give their defense a rest. I don't see Indy penetrating Michigan State's D often.
Take the Spartans at home today.
2* MICHIGAN STATE
Eric Schroeder
After dealing you a free winner on the Over in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series last night, I'm on the college gridiron for your Saturday complimentary winner. I like Central Florida to get things done today, as it will take care of Navy.
My notes on this game take me back to one word: balance.
And the Knights have it on both sides of the ball.
We've seen this team put up as many as 63 points, last week in a 42-point win over East Carolina, while limiting teams to an average of 16.8 points per game all season. For the year, the Knights are averaging 50.6 points per game.
Next week the Knights host Austin Peay, so all the focus is on this game. There is no looking ahead, meaning this road trip is all business. I might have actually been worried had this game been at home, but I'm comfortable laying the chalk on the highway.
I don't trust Navy's defense one bit, as it's given up a range of 19 to 45 points. And in the last two weeks has allowed an average of 37.5 points to Air Force and Memphis.
I'm taking Central Florida here.
5* CENTRAL FLORIDA
Tony Karpinski
Boston College vs. Virginia
Play: Boston College +7
We are going against the public with this one.
While the Eagles may be without a great offensive game - they will benefit from the services of their star RB AJ Dillon enough. The RB of Boston College had a phenomenal game vs Louisville with 39 carries and a whopping 272 YDs. They will likely get a lot of production from their backfield unit, which will help them again. Virginia gave up 4 sacks vs North Carolina - the defensive front of Boston College are going to give them many more problems. With the Dline playing up to better expectations - Boston College has been very tough in the trenches.
Virginia doesn't really blow people away people with their offensive game - and their team struggles to make the big plays when needed on the field. As well as their WRs really have an issue with trying to make teams switch when they are moving down the field. Their backs cant do very much - Virginia's rushing skill set is lacking with their offense yards/play and 3.61 YPC as a team Eagles are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and catching +7 in this game. PREDICTION: Boston College Wins 24-23
SPORTS WAGERS
Tennessee +36½ over ALABAMA
The Volunteers have been the butt of many jokes in the previous few weeks due to a litany of poor performances being held to their name. The high point of futility for this football team came after they suffered a historic loss at Rocky Top against a hated nemesis when the Bulldog Nation of Georgia came to town and shutout the Vols 41-0 on their own field earlier this month. Though Tennessee lost their other two defeats this season on the last play literally, this team has been recently characterized as the class clown of the SEC. Furthermore, we have seen Head Coach Butch Jones be subjected to some rather grisly memes in the past few weeks as his seat continues to warm up beneath him. As a result of these narratives, no one wants a part of Smokey. Furthermore, in anticipation of renewal of ‘The Third Saturday of October’ rivalry with old foe Alabama, literature has surfaced such as ’10 Things More Likely to Happen than a Tennessee Upset’. Given the fact the Tide have won the last 10 meetings between the two parties, an event of such magnitude would be comparable to the day the Martians finally landed. Nevertheless, had the Florida Gators been unsuccessful on a Hail Mary conversion and had South Carolina failed to keep the Vols out of the checkerboard on a game-ending goal-line stand to secure their victory at Knoxville last week, perhaps there would have been an entirely different conversation and energy in the build-up to this contest.
Alabama is the gold standard of college football. As a whole, one will without question pay a premium to get any piece of the Crimson Tide pie. This holds true regardless of the opponent. However, when the Tide are tasked with hosting a team with a current public perception akin to Tennessee’s, the points may in fact be ludicrous. The Volunteers are a dangerous team to fade despite popular belief. Tennessee at this point has nothing to lose and everything to gain. If Tennessee gets blown out, it will only reaffirm what everyone has already been saying about them. However, they are going to treat this game like it’s life or death while the Tide have been told over and over that all they have to do to win is show up. You keep hearing and reading that and it sinks in, especially for kids that have much bigger fish to fry. Hated rival LSU comes in here next week and the media and attention in that region is already discussing that one. Tennessee has a lot of (inflated) points to work with here and we’ve seen Nick Saban call off the dogs plenty of times in the fourth quarter before when he had a big lead. Tennessee has the ability to stay under this number the entire afternoon and likely come in well under it.
Illinois +13½ over MINNESOTA
Last week the Illini lost to Rutgers by 11 points. The week prior, Illinois was whacked by Iowa, 45-16. Three weeks ago, Illinois was at home to Nebraska and lost 22-6. The Illini has dropped four in a row after a 2-0 start and they appear to be getting worse every week. If you’ve wagered on this team and watched them play anytime over the last month, it would be nearly impossible to force yourself to get behind them again. However, this wager has nothing to do with getting behind the Illini, as they just happen to be the Gophers opponent this week. That’s perfect as far as we’re concerned because Minnesota cannot be favored in this range against anyone. The Gophers three-point loss to Michigan State last week looks nice on paper too but trust us when we tell you that around 40 things had to go perfectly right for the Gophers to cover that game. Without going into detail, don’t be fooled by the score. Minnesota was down 30-13 and two garbage time TD’s allowed them to make the final look like 30-27. The timing now is perfect to sell on the Gophers and it’s misleading 3-3 record and misleading Big-10 final scores.
Minnesota started the season 3-0, but the Gophers are now a long shot to make a sixth straight postseason appearance. The roster that P.J. Fleck inherited is just not equipped for life in the Big Ten. There was natural attrition as a result of the regime change, and while the players have largely responded to Fleck and embraced the new culture, there's not enough talent or depth on hand. The lineup is full of underclassmen, injuries are mounting and more redshirts were pulled in Saturday's loss to Michigan State. Minnesota's extreme youth will continue to wear down as it navigates the rugged conference season. The secondary is the greenest and thinnest unit in the conference and after three games in succession against Maryland, Purdue and MSU, facing Illinois is a good place to start fading this bunch. Don't be deceived by either the defense's solid pass defense numbers or the shutdown performance versus pass-happy Middle Tennessee, which was missing its record-setting quarterback and All-America wideout. This is a weak team being coached by the overlay energetic and optimistic Fleck that is spotting ridiculous points. Illinois can absolutely win this one outright.
Wake Forest +4 over GEORGIA TECH
The Yellow Jackets have played just five games, as their Sept 16 scheduled game against UCF was cancelled due to Irma. Tech comes into this game off a devastating, one-point loss to #8 Miami. You had to see it to believe it but losing to such a highly ranked team gives the Jackets a bit too much market credibility here. Darrell Langham's 28-yard catch on a tipped ball that just happened to fall into his arms as he fell down on a fourth-or-else play helped set up Michael Badgley's 24-yard field goal with four seconds left, and Miami somehow beat Georgia Tech 25-24. The Yellow Jackets had that game in the bag and then they didn’t, thus we always have to be mindful about a teams’ mental makeup. We don't mean the attitude now, in the wake of the loss, but rather the overall makeup. Tough-minded, unified teams with good leadership and a stronger commitment to values -- finishing, truly taking the schedule one week at a time, or desire to achieve goals still in reach -- are better candidates to bounce back. Weaker, less mentally tough teams that aren't as tight and have fewer leaders, teams that are already inconsistent week-to-week or teams whose goals have been destroyed, are less likely to rebound quickly. We need to understand the downtrodden team's general mental toughness and capacity for resilience. Covering Tech’s intangibles is beyond the scope here, but it's worth mentioning that the Jackets also felt that they "gave away" the opener against Tennessee (a one point, double OT loss) so there's some residual pain of the same flavor already in the bank. That's a small plus. Instead of being 5-0, the Jackets are now 3-2 and giving away points to Wake is not good timing. You see, this game for Tech is sandwiched between that distressing loss last week and a game against #2 Clemson next week.
The Demon Deacons started out 4-0 but are now 4-2 after back-to-back losses to Florida State and Clemson. However, they hung tough against both and it was no fluke either. With an extra week to prepare after its bye week, Wake is high on our radar as a team to fear. Wake Forest will be the fourth program that proven builder Dave Clawson takes from losing seasons to double-digit wins. Clawson previously authored turnarounds at Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green, and his vision is being executed the same way in Winston-Salem: with patience, redshirting and gradual roster building. When the two-deep finally fills with upperclassmen proficient in both the program's playbook and its culture, the wins have historically come for Clawson's teams. That's where Wake is now. A formerly pedestrian offense has finally caught up with a reliable defense, and the roster now has ACC-caliber depth. Its last win, a narrow escape at Appalachian State was the perfect way to get to 4-0. This team was humbled a bit and reminded of the value of preparation and staying locked in every week. The team also proved to itself that it can come from behind and win even without its best stuff. Two losses in a row is not going to hurt this team, instead it’s going to make them more confident because of how close they came and how well they played against two difficult programs. The Deacs will continue to build upon the 2016 breakthrough that saw the school's first winning season since 2008. This bunch is ready to compete with anybody in the ACC and certainly in this favorable spot against Tech.
Iowa State +7 over TEXAS TECH
The Cyclones are very simply not getting the credit they deserve. There’s an old cliché that says adversity reveals character, which brings us to State’s QB situation. Jacob Park started the season at quarterback for the Cyclones and threw for 1,181 yards, nine touchdowns and five touchdowns through four games. But Park has missed the last two games and is out indefinitely after taking a personal leave for the season. Instead, senior Kyle Kempt will be taking most of the snaps at quarterback. He's answered the call, throwing for 465 yards and four touchdowns through two games and was at the helm when State pulled off that stunning upset over the Sooners. Instead of suffering a big letdown as a big favorite last week, Iowa State rolled Kansas 45-0. Rolling the Jayhawks does not give the Cyclones more market appeal, as everyone rolls that bunch. Iowa State is going to need to put together some strong seasons in succession before this market will trust them. You see, ISU is traditionally near the bottom of the Big 12 standings. This season is the first time it has a 2-1 start in Big 12 play since 2002. Overall the Cyclones are 4-2 with its only two losses occurring against Iowa by three and Texas by 10 in a low scoring affair (17-7). State’s defense has been rock solid all year too. This is a team with playmakers, defense and a good feel to it that is taking on another rival that they rolled over last year by an incredible score of 66-10. Tech has vowed revenge but that revenge angle is another overused, useless angle that we do not subscribe too. The more likely scenario is that Texas Tech racks up some yards and points but plays another sloppy game like they usually do when the chips are down.
Last week Tech lost to West Virginia and gave up the final 29 points in the process. Texas Tech, Head Coach, Kliff Kingsbury is more “one of the boys” than he is head coaching material. Through his first four seasons and the first six games of this season, Kingsbury has posted a 29-28 record; he’s made just two bowl games, and his Raiders have finished in the bottom half of the Big 12 in each of his seasons. Before this season, Vegas gave Kingsbury 18-to-1 odds to be fired this season, tying him with his former Texas A&M boss, Kevin Sumlin, as the sixth-likeliest college football coach to be fired this season. Dude is hanging on by a thread. Tech has a three-point win over a sinking Houston program. He has a 7-point win against a defenseless Arizona State squad. The other two victories for Tech this year was against Kansas and Eastern Washington, which are two more of the worst defenses in the FBS. The Red Raiders defense can’t stop the matching band. Even Kansas was able to rack up 256 yards through the air against them, not to mention 112 yards on the ground.
We always want to make identification of teams likely to post a misleading ledger this season or up to this point, that is, teams that play good defense but can't score, and those that can't stop anybody but score freely. Right now, Texas Tech is a fade target of ours because they do not have the personnel to make a sudden fix before the market fully adjusts. Tech may be good for lots of aerial production but that already puts an already out-manned defense on the field a lot. This is not only a bad favorite because its defense can’t get off the field, but it’s a team that can be broken down both physically and mentally and that is led by a fragile coach that is directionless. Give State a huge psychological edge and a massive defensive edge, which is more than enough ammo for us to move in on.
MIAMI OHIO -3 over Buffalo
From a market perspective these two teams are polar opposites. Miami Ohio has been a liability against the spread in 2017, as they have covered just once over the span of seven games. By contrast, the Bulls of Buffalo can do no wrong, as they have covered in every game they have participated in this season. These two narratives shift and shape public perception and thus we have seen the market gravitate toward the marginally-priced underdog in this affair.
When the market jumps on a pooch, there is reason to be suspicious. Seldom do we see dogs get a lot of love and often when they do, it is because they are overvalued. Generally, the Bulls offer little luster and play in a conference that is nothing short of a spider’s lair. The MAC as a whole has been the story of Western Michigan and the 11 Dwarves. However, with several impact players moving on from the Broncos after their storied run to the Cotton Bowl last year, many MAC pundits are expecting a changing of the guard. Miami of Ohio was a popular choice by many to contend to be the MAC’s next favorite son but they have now fallen off the radar.
Coming in off the heels of an incredulous run to the post-season in 2016, the Redhawks were expected to hit the ground running and continue to build on that success in 2017. With such revelry, the Redhawks were in position to be favored in more games than usual and spot more points than they normally would when they were favored. Unfortunately for Miami Ohio, this season has gone in the opposite direction. The Redhawks started off their 2016 campaign with six consecutive losses before they would win out and earn a bid to the Independence Bowl, coming up a point short of a win against Mississippi State. This year, the Redhawks have won just two games, one of which was against an FCS cupcake in Austin Peay. If there is one thing we stress adamantly it is that teams’ that over perform and underperform are both due for a correction.
The point-spread is the great equalizer my friends. Buffalo is one of four Division 1 teams to be perfect against the spread this season. That has the market jumping on board but that ship sailed long ago. The timing is off for those hopping on right now and it’s a mistake this market makes often. The Bulls have been spotted less points against both Western Michigan (+7½) and Northern Illinois (+7½) while Miami Ohio is spotting far less with respect to their last two outings (-17 against Bowling Green and then -8.5 at Kent State). Though the Bulls have been a cash cow, the value is actually on the Redhawks. As a result of these variables, we have an opportunity to take advantage of a short-priced favorite in what is a quintessential buy-low, sell-high scenario. Win or lose, we feel strongly that if “in-game variance” doesn’t get us, this wager is supposed to win.