Ray Monohan
Tennessee vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -34.5
The Crimson Tide are just rolling over opponents right now. Here, they face a Tennessee team that is just in turmoil. The Volunteers have dropped back to back games and defensively are just atrocious. Tennessee has given up 33.5 points per road game this season and face an offense that just wears you down. Alabama is outscoring opponents 42.7-10.1 this season. They have found stability with their run game, as RB Damien Harris has rumbled for over 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games. Alabama has a huge edge here and will really get a huge push up front on Tennessee, as they will really have them on their heels all half. Some trends to note. Volunteers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October. This one could get ugly.
Rob Vinciletti
UL Monroe vs. South Alabama
Play: PUL Monroe +5
The Warhawks have a huge offensive edge and catch South Alabama off a massive upset as a 19 point dog at Troy last out. They have won both games vs losing teams this season and South Alabama is 3-13 ats off a conference game and has failed to cover 5 of 6 as a home favorite from -3.5 to -7, and 0-4 ats off a dog win. Their upset win also sets them up in a solid system that cashes over 75% long term and plays against home teams as a favorite of 25 or less off a +10 or more road dog win. Look for LA. Monroe to get the cover here.
Brandon Shively
Maryland vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin -24.5
Wisconsin welcomes in Maryland on Saturday afternoon and this is a horrible matchup for the Terrapins.
Maryland just doesn't have the strength defensively to hold down here.
Wisconsin likes to run the ball and run it right at you. While they pick up a few yards early, the hits start to wear and tear on defenses and eventually they start to get a huge push up front.
Maryland has struggled against top teams, especially ones like this Badgers team. The Terps are giving up 36.5 points per game, one of the worst marks in the conference.
On top of that, Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 119-24 in the second half.
Look for them to just wear Maryland down.
Zack Cimini
Idaho vs. Missouri
Pick: Missouri -14
Last week Idaho masked ineffective play from Appalachian State to make a game out of it. Unable to close the door with a sizable lead is a carry over factor in nearly all sports. Don’t expect anything different here from an Idaho team that lacks the defensive unit to contain even a bottom end SEC team.
Will Rogers
Rice vs. Texas-San Antonio
Pick: Over 53
The set-up: It's C-USA play on Saturday night with the Rice Owls (1-5 overall, 1-1 in conference play) visiting the UTSA Roadrunners (3-2 overall, 0-2 in league play) on Saturday evening. The Owls won at UTEP in its second game of the season but enters this contest on a four-game slide. The Roadrunners opened 3-0 in non-conference but comes into this contest searching for their first C-USA win.
Rice: The Owls are 1-5 SU and ATS, due to owning one of CFB's most pathetic offenses. Rice scored 31 points in its lone win at UTEP but has scored 12 points or fewer in each of its other five games. Rice limps into this contest averaging 11.7 PPG (128th) on 298.5 YPG (124th). It's not surprising the Owls are just 1-5, as the team allows 36.3 PPG (114th), allowing 38-plus points in four of six games.
UTSA: The Roadrunners opened their season by winning 17-10 at Baylor, then won 51-17 at home over Southern and 44-14 at Texas State. However, UTSA has opened league play with two tough losses, 31-29 to Southern Miss and then 29-26 at North Texas. The loss to North Texas was a 'killer!' The Roadrunners took a 26-22 lead on a 46-yard scoring strike by QB Dalton Sturm. However, with just over a minute to play, North Texas QB Mason Fine orchestrated a 98-yard drive capped by the winning TD pass with 10 seconds remaining. OUCH!
The pick: UTSA averages 33.4 PPG (43rd) on 460.8 YPG (30th) and off consecutive late losses (both in conference play), should have plenty of motivation vs. a Rice D that can't stop anyone (see above). Rice's offensive woes keep this over/under number low enough to play the Over!
Power Sports
South Florida vs. Tulane
Pick: Tulane +11.5
Despite making it four consecutive wins and covers w/ last week's 33-3 thumping of Cincinnati, South Florida is a team that I continue to look at in a "skeptical light." HC Charlie Strong can continue to talk as "big" as he'd like ("We're good enough to go and compete with anyone."), but at #18 (program's highest ranking since '08), his Bulls are way overrated. For the sake of comparison, I have them only #32. That may not sound like a large gap, but there's only one other current "Top 25 team" I have rated lower (Michigan State). This week finds USF traveling outside the Sunshine State for the second to last time, and ahead of a huge showdown vs. Houston next Saturday. I'll gladly fade them.
When you're a "Group of Five" team (not SEC/Big 10/Pac 12/ACC/Big 12), being unbeaten has to come w/ a little bit of context. USF's five FBS opponents thus far are a combined 6-25 straight up. This week, the face a tricky Tulane team that has won all three of its home games, by an average of 22.3 PPG. Their last time here, they ran Tulsa right out of Yulman Stadium, winning 62-28. Running the triple option makes them a difficult team to prepare for and unlike last week, USF isn't coming off a bye week here.
Tulane will also be looking to atone for a 23-10 loss at FIU last week, so don't expect them to be lacking for any kind of motivation this week. Rarely, does a Top 25 team come to town either. They were just 3 for 14 on third/fourth down last week, which helps explain the final result. It was also on the road where they have not won. At home, the offense is averaging 7.4 yards per play, so they're going to give USF a fight here. I expect a close game.
Marc Lawrence
Louisville at Florida St
Pick: Louisville
Edges - Cardinals: 8-1 ATS as road dogs of 10 or fewer points… Seminoles: 0-5 ATS as favorites of 18 or fewer points with seeking revenge… With the Cardinals off consecutive SU favorites loss, and Bobby Petrino 9-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in his career following back-to-back losses, coupled with Florida State owning the worst Power 5 offense in the nation (18.2 PPG), scoring only 8 TDs this season (tied with Kent State among of all FBS teams), we recommend a 1* play on Louisville.
Buster Sports
Fresno St vs. San Diego St
Play: Under 47
The Fresno State Bulldogs are coming off a very impressive 38-0 victory over New Mexico and now they have to go to San Diego to play the Aztecs who are coming off their first loss of the year. We will be on the UNDER here and here are a few reasons why. Overall, both of these clubs have top 25 defenses that we believe will be able to stop each other’s offenses. This game will be a real grind for these clubs and we see points in this contest coming at a premium. San Diego State loves to run the ball and today they will face a very good Fresno State run defence that is ranked 14th in the country. Fresno St. has a middle of the pack offense but going on the road to face a Rocky Long defense is never an easy task. Backing our selection is the fact that the Under is 5-1 in the Bulldogs last 6 conference games and the fact that the Under is 4-0 in Aztecs last 4 games following a ATS loss. The last three games in the series were mass unders and we have no reason to believe that this game will be any different.
Rob Veno
Pittsburgh at Duke
Play: Duke -8
It’s been a tough road for Duke's offense the past three weeks having faced three of the ACC’s best defenses. After racking up 425.3 ypg and 40.5 ppg over their first four contests, Duke’s offense has been reduced to just 306.3 ypg and 12.3 ppg after playing Miami, Virginia and Florida State. Despite the offensive struggles, Duke’s defense was able to keep two of those contests competitive but the 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS results leave them feeling a sense of urgency to get a win. Pittsburgh’s 14th ranked ACC defense may be the perfect elixir here since the Panthers have given up at least 446 yards and 27 points in four of its last five games.
Pittsburgh’s offense meanwhile is in their second straight game with backup quarterback Ben DiNucci taking over as the starter after Max Browne went down with a season ending injury. DiNucci has seen snaps in every game this season but as the starter last week he went 19-of-32, 170 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT against the stingy NC State defense. It doesn’t get any easier as the Duke defense is fourth in the ACC at just 312.9 ypg allowed. The fundamental matchups look poor for Pittsburgh across the board in this one mainly due to their ineffectiveness at the line of scrimmage. On the season Pitt has a yards per rush average of -1.5 which figures to be a real problem against the Blue Devils stout and aggressive front line.
Unlike last season, Pittsburgh is not equipped with a potent running game or an accurate passer at QB. Last season’s offense under the direction of ex-OC Matt Canada kept teams off balance and created plenty of spacing on the field for explosive plays. Here, the ground game will likely be overwhelmed by Duke’s defense which should also cause fits (20 sacks this season & allowing just 53.6% completions) for DiNucci. On the other side, expect Duke to find running lanes that they haven’t seen in three weeks against the Panthers 87th ranked run defense. It’s been difficult for Duke’s receivers to get free from the talented secondaries they’ve faced recently but Pitt’s secondary (111th ranked pass defense) plus lack of pass rush (only 9 sacks this season) should allow the Blue Devils passing game to flourish here. Look for dual threat quarterback Daniel “The Truth” Jones to guide Duke to a very productive offensive afternoon while the defense limits Pitt to 17 points or less. Have to lay the -8 here with Duke which will be fully focused on getting a convincing win knowing that a slip up, plus a date at Virginia Tech next week could derail their season.
Otto Sports
Buffalo at Miami-OH
Play: Buffalo +2.5
Two MAC squads currently dealing with multiple quarterback injuries as Buffalo heads to Miami-Ohio. The Bulls are down to their third-stringer, Kyle Vantrease, who was thrown into the fire during last week's 14-13 loss to Northern Illinois. Buffalo's offense didn't do much with Vantrease under center which was to be expected considering he's a true freshman. Last season, Miami started 0-6 but finished 6-0 thanks in large part to a switch at quarterback. Gus Ragland, who replaced Billy Bahl, finished the season with over 1,500 yards and a stellar 17-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Ragland was thus the starter heading into this season but went down with an injury two weeks ago vs. Bowling Green. The RedHawks had no choice but to go back to Bahl who looked lost in last week's embarrassing loss to bottom feeder Kent State. Bahl finished 12-of-29 and threw two interceptions. In the end you have the top two offenses in the MAC in terms of yards per play vs. league foes and yet because of the dire quarterback situations, a total of only 45.
Scroll through the pointspread records of every college football team and you'll notice that Buffalo is a perfect 7-0 ATS. There's obvious concerns that the market will eventually catch up to this squad as well as the precarious situation at quarterback. But I've been impressed with the overall strength of the this team on both sides of the ball. Their statistical profile, particularly on defense in conference play, doesn't look great but bettors should take into account the seven overtime affair they played vs. Western Michigan. Talent-wise, the Bulls have edges on both side of the ball in this matchup. And the dicey quarterback situation isn’t nearly as concerning when you look at Miami's drop-off in production from Ragland to Bahl. There's a reason the market isn't currently showing Miami as -3 home chalk; Buffalo even with a third-string QB is the better of these two squads. I'm on the short road underdog in this matchup.
Jim Feist
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
Pick: Under
Wake Forest scared the defending National Champs two weeks ago losing 28-14. The Deacons got last week off to help prepare for this contest. WF has the nations 12th best defense in the country allowing just 16.7 ppg. The Deacons are 4-2 overall and 1-2 in conference play. Bot teams are covering well, with Wake at 4-1-1 ATS and Tech at 5-0 ATS. Both offenses are evenly matched while defensive not goes to the Deacons. With this excellent Wake defense in tow, I'm looking for this game to be lower scoring.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Tulsa over Connecticut at noon eastern time.
It will be the first-ever meeting between Tulsa and Connecticut, and my money is on the Golden Hurricane to cover this single-digit impost.
UConn somehow managed to upset Temple last week, but the Huskies have only covered back-to-back games once since all the way back in early November of 2014! Not only that, but the Huskies have covered just one time in their last 11 games!
Tulsa just lit up the scoreboard for 45 points in their win at home over Houston last weekend, and the Golden Hurricane can score points. Scoring points is something the Huskies just are not good at consistently, so with that in mind, have to lay the road wood with Tulsa early on Saturday afternoon.
Tulsa does own a 14-5 away spread mark their last 19 on line, so look for Homecoming Day in Storrs to be greeted with another Connecticut loss.
Free play winner is Tulsa as the road favorite.
4* TULSA
Tommy Brunson
Some of the shine has dimmed on SMU, as the Mustangs suffered a loss at Houston their last time out, but they are still 4-2 on the season, and they have had a week off to get ready to take on the sinking Bearcats of Cincinnati.
Cincy is in decline, and their 2-5 straight up mark has seen them drop spread decisions in each of their last 4, including being held to just 3 points their last time out versus South Florida.
The Mustangs average a hefty 43-plus points per game this season, and they are +8 in turnover margin as well. SMU is also aware that the last time these schools played back in 2014, Cincinnati showed no-mercy in a 41-3 annihilation in Dallas.
The Bearcats have failed their last 4 as the home underdog, while the Mustangs are on a money-turning 10-3 run their last 13 spread decisions.
It been 3 years in waiting, but payback is finally here for the "going places" Ponies of SMU.
Lay it!
5* SMU
Joey Juice
Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham is playing well despite not having control over the offense as he should. In fact he has 6 TDs vs, no INT in his last 4 games, and all 4 of those games went over the total. Besides, the over is 4-0 the last 4 times Auburn played against the SEC.
When Auburn plays losing opponents, the game always goes over. The over is 7-1 last 8 vs. losers like Arkansas, who have gone over in 4 out of their last 5 games vs. the SEC.
Both these teams score points in October, Auburn has gone over 7 out of 8 times in October, while Arkansas has gone over 5 out of 7 times in the month of October.
We are in October and this game goes over.
3* AUBURN-ARKANSAS OVER
Stephen Nover
Oilers vs. Flyers
Play:Flyers -114
The Oilers are in a tough spot here. They just upset the Blackhawks, 2-1 in overtime on the road Thursday. Now they have to play here at an early start time. So it's almost like a back-to-back situation. It's especially rough for a visiting Western Conference team to play a day game in an Eastern time zone. Philadelphia has won eight of its last 10 home games. The Flyers, though, were shut out, 1-0, by Nashville in their last home game two days ago. However, the Flyers had won their two previous home games this season in convincing fashion destroying the Capitals, 8-2, and Panthers, 5-1. Edmonton goalie Cam Talbot hasn't been real sharp this season.