Ian Cameron
Central Florida at Navy
Play: Over 65
The UCF Knights have not just beaten the pointspread this season, they have annihilated it by a combined 100 points for an average of 20 ppg. They have an explosive and balanced offense that averages 548 ypg at 8.1 ypp. It’s a unit to I project will give an undersized Navy defense plenty of problems. Despite playing two options teams (Tulane and Air Force), the Midshipmen defense has been average at best (6.2 ypp allowed) this season and heads into Saturday on the heels of back-to-back hard fought barn burners that came down to the last possession. UCF marks a huge step up in class and I could very easily see the Knights wearing down Navy’s defense in the second half which should lead to big chunks of yards.
UCF's defense has also looked the part this season (16.8 ppg allowed) but the schedule comes up a little light with four of its five opponents currently ranked 75th or worse in total offense. Navy is arguably the modest capable offense (18th total offense) the Knights have seen thus far. Note that Navy’s 27-point output against Memphis last week was a bit deceiving. The Midshipmen had 334 total yards of offense on 4.4 ypp but were plagued by five turnovers. Without the luxury of a recent previous meeting, UCF’s defense isn’t likely to post some of the dominating numbers they did against inferior competition. Tough to step in front of UCF with its strong track record of outpacing the betting markets but this is a dangerous matchup and the pressure of an undefeated season is starting the mount. I think the more appropriate play is on the over as both offenses should have success.
Wunderdog
Auburn @ Arkansas
Pick: Auburn -15.5
Talented Auburn has five wins and is close to being unbeaten, losing 14-6 at defending champion Clemson and 27-23 at LSU. Auburn's defense was supposed to be great and is at ninth in the nation in points allowed (15 points per game), and #13 in total yards surrendered. The offense (34 ppg) has perfect balance averaging 216 yards passing, 222.4 yards rushing. Auburn has covered five straight times against losing teams and struggling Arkansas has a losing record, on a 1-6-1 spread run. Arkansas is soft on defense, #105 in points allowed (33 ppg). And they are getting worse, surrendering 41, 48, 24 and 50 the last four games. Arkansas is 0-3 in SEC play, off a 41-9 loss to #1 Alabama. The Razorbacks rushed for 27 yards on 29 carries against 'Bama behind a revamped offensive line that also allowed five sacks. Arkansas quarterbacks have been sacked 18 times. The Razorbacks have scored a total of 31 points the last two games and will be without senior QB Austin Allen for the second consecutive game. They've turned to freshman QB Cole Kelley and the team is 1-9 ATS after allowing 450+ total yards in their previous game. The Arkansas defense has struggled against the run, allowing its four Power Five opponents to gain an average of 236.8 yards per game on the ground. And Auburn's defense has 19 sacks, led by 6.5 from junior outside linebacker Jeff Holland. In last year's meeting, Auburn rushed for 543 yards and rolled, 56-3. Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points are 28-7 ATS after allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt the last game, with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The favorite has covered four straight when they meet, so back the Tigers again. Lay the points and play Auburn.
Joe Everett
North Texas / Florida Atlantic Over 65½
Say what you want about Lane Kiffin but he’s truly made the culture change and the team on the field has produced the offensive results in the process. The Owls pace of play and style of offense is a problem for defenses with how fast they get back to the line of scrimmage with a new playcall dialed up. With offensive coordinator Kendal Briles breaking down defenses and forcing the tempo in what is basically the old Baylor offense, this FAU team can really light up the board. Quarterback Jeff Driskel is having success running the ball, he’s surprisingly athletic and is coming off a four rushing touchdown games. Against a North Texas defense that is allowing 32.7 points per game and can’t stop the run, look for FAU runningback Devin Singletary (11 touchdowns rushing) to have a lot of success moving the chains at home.
The Mean Green has talent at the skill positions, namely sophomore quarterback Mason Fine and senior runningback Jeff Wilson who have combined for 24 total touchdowns. Wilson is a shifty back with real long speed and Mason Fine’s progression has been rapid, as he’s seeing the field extremely well and is truly up to speed in Graham Harrell’s spread offense. The Owls play the standard Kiffin 4-3 front cover two defense with Lane’s younger brother Chris running the show but they’ll definitely have their work cut out for them stopping the North Texas running game here. The Owls defense already has four games where they’ve allowed 200-plus rushing yards in their six outings and
The X-factor in this game is certainly a weather forecast that is calling for thunderstorms all afternoon and into the evening with a chance of precipitation at 80-plus percent for game time, so I’d wait to play this OVER with the number possibly dropping before kickoff. UNT has gone 4-2 to the OVER this year, while FAU is just 2-4 to the OVER but both of these offenses can get it done on the ground and neither team has proven to be able to stop opposing ground attacks. This line got pumped up from 63½ to the current 65½ number and while I do expect the number to drop as the weather outlook has more clarity, these two teams are likely to march right up the field every time they’ve got the ball so look for a 42-38 thriller in Boca Raton.
South Florida / Tulane Over 54
Not team has run more offensive snaps than the Bulls at 88.6 plays per game and with their dual threat star quarterback Quinton Flowers at the helm, they have three different ways to score on teams. The Bulls are still a similar look on offense with a ton of read option, end arounds and pre snap motion to confuse defenses but they have a new runningback tandem that has been very effective this year. Senior D’Ernest Johnson is probably the most versatile player on this offense and the old coaching staff called him; “The best player on their team regardless of position”, so he is the versatile shifty playmaking back that can catch, while fellow senior Darius Tice is more of a banger that can move the pile and forced broken tackles. Tice is questionable for this game with a leg injury, so his status is unclear as of this writing. While Marquez Valdes-Scantling has had issues with drops, he’s still a very tough cover on the perimeter with his size and junior receivers Tyree McCants is emerging as a big play threat with his 21.2 receiving average. The Tulane defense has dropped in points per game and clearly misses Tanzel Smart but dropping 56 to Oklahoma has been the new low for Willie Fritz at Tulane.
Tulane has Jonathan Banks back at quarterback, they still run one of the more unique playbooks in all of college football in Fritz’s triple option look and this is the first real triple option team that South Florida’s defense has seen since Navy in 2016. The Bulls are surprisingly 16th in scoring defense but they have yet to play a real offensive minded team. When Illinois scores 23 on you, there’s going to be issues cropping up against quality offenses. The Green Wave offense is led by a dual threat quarterback in Banks but their senior runningback Dontrell Hilliard has played like a stud this year with nine total touchdowns and a 6.7 yards per carry clip that any collegiate back could be proud of.
This will be the first ever meeting between these two teams, despite both playing in the AAC the last three years and Tulane will certainly want to make a strong impression. Some might even say they were caught in a look ahead to this game last week after dropping their last game to Florida International but both teams will be up for this contest. The total has only dropped a point from 55 down to 54 but with thunderstorms in the New Orleans forecast, we could see this number go even lower by the time 7:00pm eastern hits so this is another play I would wait right up until kickoff to place in the hopes of getting a little more CLV. This will be another run-heavy dual between two teams that have terrific ground games and dual threat quarterbacks to make the difference in what could be less than ideal conditions. I’ll call for a 41-38 South Florida win with both offenses finding success in what will be a much closer than expected final with the dog covering the number.
Wyoming / Boise St Over 44½
Yes, both of these offenses are terrible right now and Wyoming’s soon to be NFL star quarterback Josh Allen has struggled but this number is just wrong. The Cowboys aren’t the offense they were last year with the losses of star runningback Brian Hill and receiver Tanner Gentry but they’re still able to score with Josh Allen’s scrambling ability and true freshman Trey Woods has looked sharp in games and has ⅘ yard per carry average. Redshirt sophomore CJ Johnson has broken out as a big play receiver with three receiving scores in his last two games. The Broncos defense can be had on deep passes, as well as on the ground with one rushing touchdown or more allowed in each of their last five games. Even though the Cowboys offense isn’t what it used to be, they’ll have drives that go for scores to keep this game in contention on the road.
The Boise State offense is a strange case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde with the two quarterbacks that are rotating in and out. While most observers can clearly see that Montell Cozart is far and away the more effective quarterback, head coach Bryan Harsin is stubbornly sticking with Brett Rypien who has thrown more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2) to this point and is nowhere near the rushing threat that Cozart is. Regardless of the poor management by Bryan Harsin, Boise has an elite NFL-ready wide receiver (Cedrick Wilson) who is a matchup nightmare and already has 588 yards in his six games played. The Cowboys have taken their defense up a notch from last season and they boast an NFL prospect at safety in junior Andrew Wingard who leads the team in tackles at 57 total. The Broncos will get Wilson involved early but will certainly look to Alexander Mattison to pound out the tough yards and keep Wyoming behind the chains for most of the game.
These two teams have met seven times in the last seven years and all seven games have seen 45 or more points scored. This rivalry will bring out the best in each offense and each coordinator will be pulling out all the stops to get the edge here. The line for this game has actually been steady, jumping up a half point to 45 in some shops from the 44½ opener and with the weather forecast in Boise calling for evening showers, this total could drop a little lower before Saturday night gets here. This game smells of overtime here with two mountain west rivals going at each other’s throats to close out the weekend of college ball. I will call for a 31-28 Cowboys upset victory on the road here, so jump on the OVER and wait on the better number right up to gametime.
Brandon Lee
Arizona State vs. Utah
Play: Arizona St +10
The value here is with the Sun Devils as a double-digit dog once again. Arizona State is a team that continues to be undervalued, despite just beating the No. 5 team in the country. A big reason for that is they haven’t been a serious threat in the Pac-12 for years and were just 5-7 a season ago.
Utah is getting a lot of love for how they have played to start the year, most notably their near upsets in their last two games against Stanford and USC. What I think the public is overlooking here is that this is a really tough spot for the Utes.
They just laid everything they had on the line against the Trojans. To let a 14-point lead slip away and then miss an opportunity to win the game on a 2-point play is about as gut-wrenching a defeat as you will find. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a close defeat. Especially when it’s a game you think you should have won.
At the same time, I don’t know that the Utes would deserve to be laying more than a touchdown had they beat USC last week. I believe we are seeing Utah way overvalued simply because of the fact that they haven’t lost a game against the spread (5-0-1 ATS).
This is also a good matchup for Arizona State. While Utah’s defense is strong, they are much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Utes are just 77th against the pass compared to 30th against the run. Arizona State’s offense features the 25th ranked passing attack.
Let’s also not overlook how well Arizona State’s defense played against Washington. The Sun Devils held the Huskies to just 230 total yards and 14 first downs. The overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but that’s understandable given they have played the likes of Texas Tech, Oregon (prior to Justin Herbert getting hurt) and Stanford.
The Sun Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after holding their previous opponent to less than 20 points. I would take the points here, but also don’t hate a little extra on the money line.
Scott Spreitzer
West Virginia vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor +9½
The Bears return home after back-to-back road games and last time in Waco, they actually gave Oklahoma a run for their money as a 27-point underdog, before the Sooners finished with a 49-41 win. Baylor was no match for Oklahoma State in Stillwater last weekend, but West Virginia, a team that can't stop the run or the pass, is in a tough spot. The Mountaineers are off a tough loss to TCU two weeks ago and a pretty big come from behind win at Texas Tech one week ago. Along with a home game against Oklahoma State up next, focusing solely on Baylor might not be too easy. We expect the Mountaineers to score some points, we just don't believe they can distance themselves due to their weak defensive play. Meanwhile, Baylor will draw confidence from the 8-point loss to OU just a few weeks ago.
John Martin
Wyoming vs. Boise State
Play: Wyoming +14
The Boise State Broncos are getting too much love now after beating San Diego State 31-14 on the road last week as 4-point underdogs. But that was a misleading final as the Broncos were aided by a 53-yard punt return TD and a 34-yard fumble recovery TD to start the game. The numbers show that Boise State simply isn't a very good team. The Broncos have actually been outgained in four of their six games this season. Wyoming has turned the corner after a brutal early schedule with losses to Oregon and Iowa. They have won three straight coming in while covering the spread in all three. Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year. The Broncos will want revenge, but they should not be favored by two touchdowns here. The Broncos are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games, and 0-8 ATS as home favorites over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
Michael Alexander
Syracuse vs. Miami
Play: Syracuse +17
Syracuse shocked the collegiate football world last week, with a dominating 27-24 upset of then 2nd ranked Clemson. In that one, Clemson had to go it with an injured QB (Bryant), before he went out of the game, altogether. Certainly not the best of situations for Clemson. However, it was the Syracuse offense that was the story of the game, as it held 28-16 first down, 440-317 yard, & 83-57 play edges vs the Tigers' 8th ranked defense. When on, QB Dungey can excel both in the air and on the ground. Miami comes into this one off a miracle win over previously unbeaten Georgia Tech. This game spells TRAP
Freddy Wills
Idaho vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -13
I like Missouri who loves to run the score up against non-power 5 schools. Idaho coming off a tough loss to Appalachian State at home as they blew a 20-0 lead. Idaho has lost 4 of their last 5 games and just aren’t a very good team on offense and they have struggled at points against good offenses. They will now go on the road to face a Missouri team who probably has the most balanced offense they have seen all year. As this offense can run, but also pass behind the arm of Drew Lock. Idaho on paper has the 39th ranked defense, but they have faced 1 team in the top 60 in yards per play and gave up 44 points. I think Missouri needs a feel good win here and could put up 50+.
Missouri since there bye has played a lot better. When you look at it they were actually tied vs. Georgia 21-21 in the first half last week before depth of Georgia took over. Drew Lock was actually really impressive in that game throwing 4 TD’s and only 1 INT on the road. The week before they nearly upset Kentucky on the road as a double digit dog as it was 34-34. Again Drew Lock seemed to show big improvements throwing 3 TD’s and 0 INT and the running game averaged 6.5ypc. Their biggest issue has been 15 turnovers and they go up against a team that has only forced 6 all year. They beat a non-power 5 school team this year 72-43. Last year they beat Eastern Michigan 61-21, Delaware State 79-0. With Lock playing with confidence I can see the offense playing with a balanced approach setting themselves up for 2 wins in a row with Uconn on deck.
Jack Jones
Fresno St vs. San Diego St
Play: Fresno St +7½
The betting markets have been slow to catch on to how good the Fresno State Bulldogs are this season. I think they're still behind the eight ball here as the Bulldogs are catching 7.5 points at San Diego State in a game they will likely win outright tonight.
Jeff Tedford came back to college football in a good situation here as there were 16 returning starters for Fresno State. And he has made the most out of it. The Bulldogs are 4-2 this season with their two losses coming against two of the best teams in college football in Alabama and Washington, and they covered the spread in both games.
In fact, the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. They are coming off a 38-0 beat down of New Mexico last week, which is even more impressive when you consider the Lobos were coming off a bye week. I'm not so sure that Fresno State isn't the best team in the Mountain West this season in what has proven to be a wide open conference.
This is an awful spot for the San Diego State Aztecs. They will be deflated after suffering their first loss of the season last week, a 14-31 upset home loss to Boise State. The air has been let out of the balloon now as the Aztecs realize they won't be the Group of 5 representative for a New Year's Bowl. I don't expect them to get back up off the mat in time to put away a game Fresno State team by more than a touchdown this week.
The Bulldogs have really turned the corner since making the change to Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion a few weeks back. He has come in and lit it up by completing 65.8% of his passes for 966 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.7 per attempt. He has also rushed for 133 yards and 5.3 per carry, adding a nice dual-threat element to the offense that Chason Virgil simply did not have.
And this is actually a great matchup for Fresno State because their strength on defense is stopping the run, and San Diego State is an awful passing team that relies almost exclusively on the running the football. The Bulldogs are only allowing 111 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that normally average 157 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider they've had to face Alabama and Washington.
Fresno State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with SDSU.
Cappers Club
Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan +3
The Western Michigan Broncos and the Eastern Michigan Eagles face off on Saturday, and with the Eagles playing teams tough I like their value.
The Eagles come into this game with a 2-4 record, but don't let that fool you, they have been playing teams really tough.
They come into this game having covered the spread in five of the six games they have played so far this year.
Coming into the last three games they were a combined 32 point underdogs but only lost those three games by a combined 10 points.
The Broncos also had to play their game on Sunday instead of Saturday last week so they had one less day to prepare.
Some trends to note. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Teddy Davis
West Virginia vs. Baylor
Play: West Virginia -9
Maybe this line is to good too be true, but I will bite here on it. I think this Baylor team is completely done with this season. They were destroyed last weekend @ Oklahoma St 59-16.
Baylor is giving up a terrible 9.1 yards per pass attempt and West Virginia averages 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Baylor is being out gained by over 100 yards per game. I like the come back from behind on West Virginia last week which I believes carries over here to this game. Baylor is terrible and West Virginia should have no problem covering
Chase Diamond
Tennessee vs. Alabama
Play: Tennessee +36½
This game features the 3-3 Tennessee at 7-0 Alabama. Tennessee is just 1-5 ATS this season but this is a game I think they will cover easily. Their is a'lot on the line here for the Vols head coach Butch Jones one being his job especially if Alabama blows them out Saturday. The wheels have seemed to come off this team since the hailmary by Florida beat them a few weeks back. I think the books have over padded this line Bama has a huge rival game with LSU next week I see Tennessee giving them a little scare here as I think they keep this game kinda close.
Doug Upstone
BYU vs. East Carolina
Play: Over 57
East Carolina is an awful defensive team and so is BYU, who is close to as bad. ECU can at least move the ball on offense. In this seemingly odd matchup, we will look to Play Over on teams on teams like the Pirates when the total is between 56.5 and 63, a good offensive team at 390 to 440 YPG, against a team with a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG), after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game. Since 1992, this situation is a sweet (24-4, 85.7%!
Chip Chirimbes
Michigan vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -9½
I have been getting 'expert' advise on this game from all that I know and I am now more confused then ever...on just what they were saying. My opinion started with Penn State, as I felt that Michigan + was attractive side. The more I heard and read the more I knew I was going to stand firm on the Lions. The two best players on offense in this game both play for Penn State...
Dave Price
Syracuse vs. Miami-FL
Play: Syracuse +17½
I don't like backing teams off huge wins like the one Syracuse is coming off of against Clemson. But since that game was played on Friday, the team has had extra time to get over it. And if they were playing a bottom tier ACC team, I would look to fade them. But the Orange to get face highly ranked and unbeaten Miami this week. They will certainly be up for this game because of it. Miami is getting too much love for its unbeaten record. But the Hurricanes pulled off two straight late miracles to beat mediocre Florida State and Georgia Tech teams. I don't know what more Syracuse needs to do to prove it can play with elite competition and start getting respect from oddsmakers. The Orange have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. They only lost by 9 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, by 8 at NC State as 14-point dogs, and upset Clemson by 3 as 23-point dogs. And they had Clemson on the ropes even before they lost their starting QB just before half. This one will be closer than the books are expecting once again.