Bob Balfe
Astros -130
We had a great pitching duel last night and I expect the same this afternoon. Verlander has been on fire all season long and did not miss a beat when he was traded to the Astros at the end of the year. The Yankees still are just an average road team so it’s going to be hard for them to win big games on the road at this time of the season against ace pitchers.
Colorado/Oregon State Over 56
Last season Colorado went up and down the field on Oregon State so I don’t see much changing. The Buffs have multiple great running backs, a mobile QB and a ton of receivers. This offense is better than the defense in front of them. Oregon State is getting healthier and they too have a bunch of good backs and a great back in Ryan Nail. This team has a few underrated receivers that should get separation against a CU Secondary that has young players. Both teams should light up the scoreboard today.
Executive Sports
Michigan St at Minnesota
Play: Michigan St -4
Play On Road favorites (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. (37-8, 82% over the last 10 seasons.) The situation's record this season is: (3-0). The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4). The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).
Tony Finn
South Carolina at Tennessee
Play: South Carolina +3.5
South Carolina and Tennessee take the Neyland Stadium field for an early Saturday conference affair. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET in Knoxville for a matchup that won't draw a large number of national eyeballs. There isn't a historic rivalry between these two SEC franchises but there is a coaching watch going on in Tennessee. Volunteers head coach Butch Jones is on the hot seat and extremely unpopular among the Knoxville faithful. It isn't a secret that many Tennessee fans feel that today's game is a win-win for them and their school. If the Vols find victory it is a win the team desperately needs. If the squad loses then it is likely that Jones either resigns or is ousted. Also a win for those that believe Jones should be replaced. Finn's SEC Free Pick: Gamecocks at Volunteers.
The contests between these two schools has been competitive the last handful of years. Each of the last five games in the series has been decided by three points or less. Last year the highly thought of Vols were two-touchdown-plus favorites as a visitor to Williams-Brice Stadium and lost outright 24-21. The win by the 'Cocks a season ago eventually resulted in head coach Will Muschamp and his players earning a bowl bid. In the same breath it was another disappointing loss by the Vols and coach Jones.
South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley has thrown five touchdown passes and no interceptions over the last two games while the offense has been without wide out Deebo Samuel. Last weekend's 48-22 win over Arkansas looks offensive at first glance but it was the South Carolina defense that put a large number of points on the scoreboard. The Gamecocks scored a school-record three defensive touchdowns in the second half against the Razorbacks. The SCU stop-unit has forced 13 turnovers on the season after recording four takeaways a week ago.
The Volunteers are trying to avoid an 0-3 start to SEC play and aim to break a six quarter touchdown drought. HC Jones announced redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano will take over as the starting quarterback for today's game. Now-backup Quinten Dormady was just 5-of-16 for 64 yards in the team's last games, a 41-0 loss, to Georgia. Dormady threw two interceptions in the shutout loss. If the Vols are going to breakdown the physical South Carolina defense running back John Kelly will need to continue to break tackles and assist the redshirt freshman in keeping the offense balanced. Tennessee has been suspect against the run (surrendering 253 yards per event) this season but have the best statistical pass defense in the conference allowing less than 130 yards per game.
The additional preparation for the Volunteers in combination with their worst home loss, the 41-0 rout by Georgia in over 100 years, should be enough motivation for the players to perform at a high level today at Neyland Stadium. However, the freshman newbie behind center today will likely result in the Gamecocks stacking the box and making Guarantano beat SC's defense through the air.
There isn't anything overly special about this South Carolina football team but they are playing with confidence on both sides of the ball. It is difficult to justify that Jones and his staff can fix their offensive woes by pushing a freshman quarterbck to the field in his first start.
John Fisher
Washington at Arizona St
Play: Arizona St +19
Arizona State covered for me last week so I will jump on them again this week. They have a solid team and getting 19 points is a lot at Home.,Sun Devils have played San Diego State, Stanford, Texas Tech, and Oregon close this year just losing by less then 10 points per game. Look for ASU to stay close in the beginning just losing at the as they run out of gas.
The Real Animal
Georgia Tech +6.5
I had Miami of Florida last week and it was surprising how they struggled to beat Florida State getting very fortunate in the final minute to pull out the win and cover. The Hurricanes allowed FSU over 200 rushing and receiving yards despite the Seminoles beign without star QB Deondre Francois. The fact that Georgia Tech lost their only game outside Atlanta versus Tennessee should fire up the Jackets today along with double revenge from a pair of defeats to the Canes in 2015 and '16. Georgia Tech had a 655-369 edge in total yards versus the Volunteers in the season-opener but their kicker missed three field goals in the one-point loss. The Canes have allowed 386 rushing yards the past two weeks and now must prepare for the triple-option. Georgia Tech has really played stingy defense of late in lopsided wins over Pitt and North Carolina. In this series Miami hasn't been this lopsided a favorite since 2005. Coach Paul Johnson has cashed eight of 10 recently as a road underdog. The Jackets have committed the second-fewest penalties in the country. Miami Fl QB Rosier had three touchdown passes against the Seminoles but only completed 43 percent. Georgia Tech is outgaining their opponents by 219-yards per contest and I think they give Miami a battle here.
Dr Bob
Auburn at LSU
Auburn was expected to be really, really good this season but the Tigers were dismissed after a loss to Clemson in which their offense managed just 6 points on 117 total yards. Auburn didn’t have a rushing attack with top running back Kerryon Johnson out and Kamryn Pettway not 100% (he’s run for just 3.4 ypr on 61 runs this season and is no longer in the running back rotation) and Clemson’s defense went all out to rush the passer since they didn’t have to worry about the run game as much. That resulted in Stidham getting sacked 11 times and having very little time to find an open receiver when he wasn’t sacked. Things have changed, as Johnson has returned and Stidham has been great since that game, completing 79.1% of his passes (72 of 91) and averaging 11.1 yards per pass play. The rushing attack has also been good in the 4 games that Johnson has played, averaging 6.3 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.7 yprp to an average offense. When Auburn can run the ball effectively then Stidham is really dangerous and LSU is a team that doesn’t defend the run well. The Tigers have allowed 5.4 yprp this season to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp against an average defensive team and overall the LSU stop unit has been just 0.3 yards per play better than average (5.0 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl). That’s not good enough to stop the Auburn attack and my math model projects 395 total yards at 6.1 yppl for Auburn in this game.
What makes Auburn really good is their defense, which has been outstanding all season. The Tigers have yielded just 13 points per game and only 3.9 yards per play despite facing mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 28.0 points and 6.0 yppl against an average defensive unit. LSU’s offensive rating is also 6.0 yppl, so Auburn should allow similar numbers in this game and my math model projects 277 total yards at 4.2 yppl for LSU. Auburn actually hasn’t allowed more than 4.7 yppl to any team this season despite facing 4 teams with a better offense than LSU (Clemson, Missouri, Miss State and Ole’ Miss) – so I’m pretty comfortable with my model’s prediction of 4.2 yppl and 14 points for LSU.
Overall, this game looks like a pretty easy Auburn win and I’d get Auburn by more than 7 points even if I use LSU’s much better preseason ratings. So, there is value on Auburn even if LSU plays at the higher level that was expected of them this season. I’ll take Auburn in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
OC Dooley
BYU / Mississippi St Over 50.5
The lifeless offense of Brigham Young has been held to 13-or-less points FOUR times in the past 5 outings while Mississippi State's attack has been held to a "combined" 13 points in the last pair of appearances which were both road defeats versus conference competiton. At most offshore locations this total opened "down" at 46-and-a-half points but as we get close to kickoff there has been a shocking RISE in the number for which I am reacting. Teams like Mississippi State off consecutive road defeats have played OVER the total in the past 5 years at a 74-PERCENT clip (43-15) when matched up against a "non" conference opponent. In the past THREE YEARS when off consecutive road losses Mississippi State has played SIX IN A ROW OVER the number (offense averaging 39 points and the defense permitting 40 per pop in that situation. Even though these two schools do not meet very often the last clash played AT Mississippi State resulted in a wild 41-38 shootout
Chris Jordan
My free play is on a College Football side for Saturday, as I like the Miami, Florida Hurricanes over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. I will have a later free play for Saturday, too, and it will be available when this complimentary winner kicks off.
I don't trust the Jackets in this spot, with Miami looking to strengthen its spot atop the Coastal Division in the ACC, and laying a rather low number. Yes, the Yellow Jackets are a dangerous team at 3-1 and some believe are on the brink of cracking the Top 25, but the competition they've faced leaves me wondering if this team is as good as its record.
If Georgia Tech beats Miami, my question is answered. But I think the Canes will be the one answering my question.
Under Mark Richt’s direction, this team looks revitalized and prepared to making a run with the first CFB Playoff rankings are a few weeks away.
With a strong showing this month, I believe Miami will play its way into national contention and we may even see it set up a play-in game against Clemson in early December.
Take the home team here.
4* MIAMI, FLA.
Vic Duke
Navy vs. Memphis
Play: Over 71
These teams bring explosive offenses to Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. Navy ranks #1 in the nation rushing and no team has stopped them thus far. And surely the Tigers, which allow 187 YPG on the ground and 111th in the nation in points allowed, will have difficulty keeping Zach Abey and company out of the end zone. On the other hand, the Tigers put up 42.4 PPG led by QB Riley Ferguson. Navy's secondary, which allows 227 yards passing a game, hasn't seen this kind of air attack all season. Memphis is "over" heavy in virtually every category. We'll look for many explosive plays as this one soars "over".
Rob Vinciletti
Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo
Play: Northern Illinois -6½
NIU has won all 9 meetings in the series with Buffalo who had their hears ripped in overtime last week, losing 71-68 to Western Michigan. That loss sets them up in a system that plays against teams who won 3 or less games last year and are off 1 exact overtime loss if they are .400 or better. These teams have failed to cover 14 of 18 times long term. Northern Illinois is 31-10 ats on the road and has covered 7 of 8 off a conference win. Add in that Buffalo is 7-48 vs winning teams. Look for Northern Illinois to win and cover.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas +22½ over IOWA STATE
Kansas is coming off a 65-19 loss to Texas Tech and that is a final score that resonates in this market. Now, one would think that losing 65-19 is what it is but we’re here to tell you that it’s not. Kansas was moving the chains all day on Tech but four turnovers on fumbles or interceptions and three more on downs at or near mid-field, led to 35 points by Texas Tech. The Jayhawks were chasing that game from start to finish but were only a 14-point dog. Even against West Virginia, Kansas scored 34 points. What we have here is a 1-4 Kansas squad that is coming off a 46-point loss playing a squad that pulled off one of the greatest Power-5 upsets in history.
They are still dancing in the streets in Ames after the Cyclones defeated #3 Oklahoma by seven points at The Palace on the Prairie. It is one of the greatest victories in Cyclones history in a rivalry that has been dominated by the Sooners for the longest time. One can only imagine the jubilation by ISU’s players and coaches. It was a 60-minute effort that got more intense by the minute, as ISU realized they had a chance to knock off a monster. Not only do we have the letdown factor magnified here, but ISU goes from a 30½-point dog to a 22½-point favorite in the span of one week. The Cyclones were not built to blow out teams and in what has to be considered one of its most difficult situational spot in years, ISU is likely going to have to score a bunch to even come close to covering this massive number. Again, the Cyclones are not built that way.
AIR FORCE -7½ over UNLV
After the biggest upset in NCAAF history in Week 1, when UNLV lost by three points to Howard as a 50-point favorite, the Rebels have been involved in four blowouts since. The Rebels beat Idaho 44-16 in Week 2 and also beat San Jose State in Week 4, 41-13. UNLV’s blowout losses were a 54-21 loss to Ohio State and a 41-10 loss to SDSU. Losses to OSU and SDSU are not perceived as bad losses. Those are two very recognizable programs that are an honor to lose to so the market will put no weight on them. However, we’re not going to put any weight on the Rebels victories because the two victories were against two complete marshmallows. UNLV is a bad football team that is not getting enough points here because the market perception is off on Air Force too.
Air Force is 0-4 versus FBS competition this year, but the opposing lineup has been pretty sporty: powerhouse Michigan, an excellent Navy team, two-time defending Mountain West champ San Diego State and the best New Mexico squad in a decade. Never mind the mounting losses, as Air Force has played one quarter of poor football all year. There's a big disparity between the Falcons' traditional, schedule-blind statistical profile and the picture painted by advanced, opponent-adjusted numbers.
We'll see some 5-7 teams in bowls again this year, and the Falcons probably need to win five of their remaining seven games to make the postseason. They'll be favored in all but two, as the schedule lightens down the stretch, and the team has gone 5-2 or better over the final seven regular-season games in each of the past three seasons. Well-coached teams improve as the season wears on. Air Force has a proven propensity toward that and this bunch is already a whole lot better than the record suggests. Swallow the points and bet this one with confidence.
Boise State +6½ over SAN DIEGO ST
The accomplishments of the Aztecs speak for themselves. They are the two-time defending Mountain West Champions and they are owners of two 11-win campaigns in both 2015 and 2016. This is also a team that is one of the best at running the football. The Aztecs have picked up right where they left off in 2016 but have looked even more impressive in the early-going. SDSU enters this contest undefeated and already boasts two wins this year against Power Five opponents with outright victories at Arizona State and at home against Stanford. With San Diego State continuing to win, discourses have been had as to what the ceiling for this program could be in 2017. We have seen some analysts pencil this team into a New Year’s Six Bowl Game as the Group of Five Champion qualifier. Additionally, we have seen some pundits click the mouse to book running back Rashad Penny a trip to New York as a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. All of these superlatives drive the perception of this football team and further positions them for a nasty hiccup.
If there was a team that exemplified a mid-major giant killer, it’s the Boise State Broncos. This is a team that rumbles with the big boys on a regular basis and has beaten many of them. They are not strangers to big games at big moments and actually thrive in these situations. Just this year, we saw the Broncos head to Pullman, Washington and give the then-undefeated Washington State Cougars quite the scare on its own field. In fact, Wazzu had to rally back from three touchdowns behind and was forced to oust the pesky Broncos in overtime. Don’t expect Boise to bat an eye at San Diego State. Traditionally, we would expect to pay a premium to back Boise State be that they are the name-brand team in this conference and that in itself invokes a lot of sentiment. However, in this case the opposite is true. The Mountain West has been San Diego State’s show for the last two years and Boise State has appeared to regress overall as a program. This venue can serve as a crossroads for both organizations but a win for Boise State puts their program back on a trajectory they are more accustomed to, which is winning big games against high-quality opponents.
The Broncos may be able to do just that. San Diego State is not as dominant as it appears. The Aztecs have played five FBS opponents in 2017 and they won three of those games by a margin of six points or less; two of which were settled by a field goal. Elaborating upon the concept of in-game variance, a few unlucky bounces could have resulted in a San Diego State team with a few blemishes on its record and an entirely different discussion in the build-up to this contest. However, we’ll take advantage of the enhanced points while they’re being offered.
TEXAS +9 over Oklahoma
Crushing losses are delivered in many forms: last-minute game winners, big blown leads, losses to bitter rivals and unexpected losses as big favorites. The responses vary too. UNLV lost to Howard as a 45-point favorite, but destroyed Idaho on the road the following week. Texas A&M blew a huge lead at UCLA and then nearly lost to Nicholls State the next week. If the loss was truly crushing, the response mostly involves temporarily losing the will to prepare to win, and consequently playing poorly the following week. This is not sufficiently true to blindly attack teams in these spots, but it's a good start. With a decent read on each team and a solid definition of what qualifies as a particularly demoralizing or dispiriting loss, we can pinpoint it down from time to time and OU’s loss to ISU last week as a 30½-point favorite is crushing beyond crushing.
All bad losses don't spawn bad encores. Some understanding of the response during the week is the most important piece. If we've made mistakes with any assumptions -- by misdiagnosing the actual pain of the loss, the team's mental toughness, the advantages or disadvantages of the next game's circumstances or the capabilities of our hammer -- then our read might be tainted anyway but we don’t believe that’s the case here.
Fan base anger, apathy and despair matters. The bad loss points the way to a potentially profitable spot, but that's where the handicapper's work begins. From there, we gather the best answers we can to the questions the factors pose and then put the pieces together and decide if the evidence merits investment. The Sooners were a big favorite against Baylor two weeks ago and nearly lost that one. They were a massive favorite last week and absolutely lost outright. OU’s mental toughness or lack thereof started to rear its head against Baylor and manifested even more last week. This week features one of college football’s most storied rivals, known as the Red River Rivalry and Texas has been nothing but a big problem for the Sooners over the years in this series. It appears now that some elements of Bob Stoops' program culture are certainly still embedded in the Sooners, as the Iowa State loss was the ninth game Oklahoma has dropped outright as a double-digit favorite since 2011. The Sooners are not mentally tough and haven’t been so for some time while the Longhorns are getting tougher and better by the week. We know what to do here.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN +6½ over New Mexico St
We could get into all the details regarding Georgia Southern but it is not relevant. Yes, they’re a bad football team and yes they are winless but that only inflates their value this week. The real story is that the Georgia Southern Eagles just happen to New Mexico State’s opponent this week. The Aggies are the fade target here.
New Mexico State typifies what we call a ‘bad favorite’. Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams occasionally asked to lay significant points. The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone by a margin. NMSU fits this to a tee.
New Mexico State is 2-4 this year and has not had a winning season since 2002. The highlight of the year for the Aggies is their defeat of arch-rival New Mexico in the Rio Grande Rivalry but NMSU was not favored. In fact, the Aggies were spotted 7½-points on the road at New Mexico and played their hearts out in a 30-28 win in Albuquerque. New Mexico State would follow that up with a loss against Troy by a margin of 27-24. However, the Aggies would cover and now sit at a very attractive against-the-spread record on the year of 4-1-1. All season, the Aggies have been spotted inflated points because they’ve been so bad for so long. After all, this is a football team that won just 11 games in its previous five seasons (2012 – 2016). Now, New Mexico State is tasked with spotting points and doing so on the road, no less. The team that was the hunter is now the hunted and is now up against a team with nothing to lose. For the first time in a long time, the Aggies are overpriced and not underpriced, which is our prompt to move in hard. Upset possibility.
MEMPHIS -3½ over Navy
This is Navy’s first week ranked in the top-25 this season, as they come into this contest at #24 in the polls and they remain undefeated on the year. The position is a common one that sets up another good opportunity for us. Teams that enter the top 25 for the first time in a season are now on the national radar. The markets will pay more attention to them and the public perception of said team changes dramatically.
Despite Navy earning their ranking, the oddsmakers lack of faith in Navy to keep their unblemished run in operation is evident in this line. This is especially alerting considering that Navy has won the previous two meetings between both sides by considerable margins dating back to 2015. While the relevancy of these results is minimal to us, they are influential in the public perception.
What also sticks out to us is opening number of -3½. The line was -3½ up until this morning, as Navy money is pouring in at the moment. We covered this narrative in previous NFL analysis and we’ll quickly recap the significance of this figure. The line is a favorite price because the hook is so enticing and it is added to that key number of 3 for a reason. Bettors get a top-25 ranked team and the possibility of generating a cover even if Navy were to lose by a field goal. It’s very enticing and it’s designed to be. Don’t bite.
The Mids will move the chains in this game, but the defense is ill-equipped to slow down the Tigers RB Darrell Henderson. Memphis can also torch the Middies through the air. Be very weary of ranked dogs getting points against unranked opponents, especially when there is a hook on a key number. The wager here is that the Tigers will do all the heavy lifting, just like UCF did against Navy two weeks ago when they whacked them 40-13 as a small favorite.
Buster Sports
Columbus at Minnesota
Play: Columbus +115
The Columbus Blue Jackets go to Minnesota tonight and the situation sets up quite nicely for them as the Wild are dealing with numerous injuries to their club. The Wild are waiting for star forwards Parise and Granlund to come back from injury and now they lost three more forwards on Thursday night. It will be a tough grind for them tonight against one of the best teams in the league. Columbus played last night and beat New York 3-1. They have now started the year 3-1 and have owned the Wild winning seven out of the last nine games between the clubs. The last time Columbus played at the Xcel Energy Center they were 4-2 winners. We believe tonight will be no different especially against a depleted Wild club. Columbus are getting plus money tonight and we will be more than happy to take it.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Islanders +127 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Sharks have been one of the NHL’s most consistent franchises over the past decade. Every year come April, San Jose has consistently been a threat to make a deep run in the playoffs so they have pedigree. They are known as a tough Western Conference team that is always difficult to beat at home. While we’re just three games into the season, the early returns are not good regarding San Jose. Its lone win in three games came against the winless Sabres, 3-2. They mustered 25 shots on net and did not own a time of possession advantage. The Sharks looked very beatable against the Kings when L.A. beat them rather easily, 4-1. They were outshot by the Kings, 38-25. In its season opener, San Jose once again looked slower than the opposition in a 5-3 loss to Philadelphia. The Sharks are turning into a risky favorite and we’ll look to exploit that here.
The Islanders do not have much market appeal. They have one win in four games and that lone victory was also against the Sabres. However, the Islanders have played well but don’t have the wins to prove it. They dominated the Blues and lost 3-2. After the first period of that game, the Isles had a 21-6 shots on net advantage and a 68% possession time edge. The Islanders are loaded. Both the veterans and the young guns have talent. The offseason trade for Jordan Eberle, plus larger roles for youngsters Mathew Barzal and Josh Ho-Sang—and the continued presence of superstar John Tavares should have the Islanders creating havoc all season long. The Islanders have 40 shots or more on goal in their last two games but scored only twice. Puck luck plays a big time role in the outcome of games and thus far the Islanders haven’t had much. Thing is, the chances are there and if the chances are there the goals will follow. The Islanders have been the better team in three straight games and they’ll likely be the better team in this one too. That makes them very worthy of getting behind.
Columbus +115 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Wild open at home after playing three road games to start the year and frankly, there is nothing to get excited about with this group. Minnesota ranks 24th in offensive zone time. They come into this home opener at 1-1-1 but they deserve to be 0-3. Minnesota’s only win was a 5-4 OT victory in Carolina in which they scored a goal to tie it with a tenth of a second left in a game they were outshot in 42-27. They lost to Detroit 4-2 and when they beat Chicago on Thursday, they were not the better team in that game either. Every team in the NHL has star power or a couple of young phenoms but the Wild have none. Their first line center is Eric Staal. A lot of Minnesota's core players are in their 30s and a decline has already started for most. This is an overrated and beatable team that is high on our fade radar.
Columbus played last night at home against the Rangers and dominated the early part of the first period and the third period en route to a 3-1 victory. The Jackets will play the tail-end of back-to-backs here but that’s not a factor this early in the year. What we know for sure is that the Jackets are young, they’re quick and they’re balanced. They also have outstanding goaltending no matter what goaltender they use. Last night it was Sergei Bobrovsky and tonight it’ll likely be Joonas Korpisalo. Korpisalo would be a #1 on at last 70% of the teams in this league because he’s that good. The Jackets rank top-10 in several possession metrics and they’re playing with the same intensity as they did last year when they were killing it. Jackets plus a price here is true value and we’re all over it.
Carolina +117 over WINNIPEG
After going 0-2 to start the year, the Jets are now 2-2 after switching from Steve Mason to Connor Hellebucyk after the former was inexplicably singed in the offseason for two years at $8-million. While the Jets were very good going shot for shot with the Oilers last Monday, Winnipeg was fortunate to finish their Western Canadian road trip at 2-1 after being outshot in Vancouver 32-20 but doubling up the Canucks 4-2. With Hellebucyk now 2-0, the Jets stock is climbing and they figure to get defenseman Dustin Byfuglien back after he missed the last two game. That inflates their value further. While Winnipeg appears to have turned it around on paper, a deeper look suggests otherwise. The Jets are 27th in Corsi For % (an advanced statistic used to measure shot attempt differential while at even strength play) and dead last in offensive zone starts at just 39.7% which means they take a majority of their face-offs in their own end of the rink which is not a foundation for winning.
Carolina has played just two games this season and is 1-0-1-0 after a 2-1 overtime loss to the Blue Jackets. The Hurricanes have outshot both their opponents by double digits this season, putting a total of 80 pucks on net. Carolina’s win, a 5-4 shootout over the Wild might not look great on paper but Minnesota tied that game with 0.01 seconds left in the game. We ripped up a ticket that night but the ‘Canes were the better team the entire night. Newly acquired goaltender Scott Darling’s .889 save percentage might not look so hot but when combined with his team’s shot percentage, the Hurricanes are 27th in PDO (save % + shooting %) at 95.5 which suggests they have deserved better. Carolina is also a top-five Corsi % team right behind the Maple Leafs at 55.3% and the Leafs are getting big headlines across the league. Nobody is talking about the ‘Canes who are also third in offensive zone start percentage at 57.8%, which is a sharp contrast from the Jets. The Hurricanes have been high on our radar for a while now and the numbers under the hood suggest they are primed to go on a run. We’re not going to miss out.
TJ Pemberton
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens
Play: Canadiens -110
The Toronto Maple Leafs will head to Montreal to take on the Canadiens on Saturday. Toronto lost at home on Wednesday 6-3 to the Devils after starting the season 3-0. Toronto is 1-0 on the road this season and average 5.50 goals per game which is 1st in the NHL. Frederik Andersen will take his spot in the goal for the Maple Leafs. Andersen is 3-1 on the season and has allowed 16 goals. Andersen carries a 3.97 goals against average and a .871 save percentage.
The Montreal Canadiens is 1-3 on the season and have lost three straight games. The Canadiens lost to the Blackhawks 3-1 on Tuesday. Montreal will host the Maple Leafs before hitting the road for three straight. The Canadiens are 0-1 on their home ice this season. Carey Price will make his 5th start in the goal for Montreal. Price is 1-3 on the sesaon and has allowed 11 goals on the season. Price carries a 3.33 goals against average and a .889 save percentage. Toronto has not won in their last eight trips to Montreal. The Canadiens own this series and get a shot to find the win column again on their home ice. Montreal finds a way to win.