Tommy Brunson
Comp play for Saturday will be Auburn minus the points at home against UL Monroe.
Potential "flat spot" for the Tigers who just manhandled then # 1 Georgia last Saturday, 40-17, but doubt now # 6 Auburn gets distracted in this spot, as the Tigers are riding 3 straight wins and covers.
In those wins, Auburn has scored at a 44.6 points per game clip against the likes of UGa, Texas A&M and Arkansas, so scoring some big points against the Warhawks shouldn't be much of an issue.
UL Monroe just snapped a 3-game straight up and against the spread losing streak with their upset win over Appalachian State last time on the field on November 4th. After hanging very close with Auburn back in 2012, losing by just a field goal 31-28 in overtime to the Tigers, the Warhawks were flattened last season when the teams played, 58-7.
With a legitimate shot at bumping up into the "final four" before this college season plays out, expect Auburn to flatten UL Monroe by a similar score this season.
Lumberjack "big wood" special today! Auburn to roll large.
2* AUBURN
Stephen Nover
Syracuse at Louisville
Play: Under 68.5
Syracuse has a good offense - and its high totals like this reflect that. The Orange, though, have gone Under in 11 of their last 13 ACC games.
Syracuse QB Eric Dungey missed the last game with a leg injury. So his status and condition could be a factor that favor the Under.
Louisville is playing better defense. The Cardinals held Virginia to 21 points, 277 yards and had four sacks last week.
Another key factor here is weather. Heavy winds are forecast along with around a 70 percent chance of rain. That could mean more running plays. Syracuse isn't a great running team and Louisville's defense is better versus the run.
Bob Balfe
Georgia Tech -7
Duke was fools gold early in the football season. This team has lost 6 in a row and oddly enough the offenses has been the problem. This is a Blue Devils team that is very young up front on defense and I can’t imagine the little bumps and bruises these guys have from all the cut blocks last week against Army. It’s not fun when you are hitting the ground every single time the ball is snapped. The quick turnaround against the same type of offense, but only better is not going to fun for this defense. This Duke team might lose their will come the second half.
The Real Animal
Utah State -10
How does Hawaii, 1-6 since 9/23 and 3-7 on the season, have any interest in their final road game of the year traveling to Logan, Utah for a date with the Aggies? Hawaii is 0-6-1 ATS in that stretch while the Aggies are off a bye week and need a win to become bowl eligible. I like the fact Utah State won their last two road games outright as dogs at New Mexico 24-10 and at UNLV 52-28. In Hawaii's only win since late September they beat San Jose State 37-26 but gave up 504 total yards. Last week they got gashed for 401 yards and 31 points by Fresno State. The week before 412 yards and 31 points to UNLV. The week before 28-7 loss at home to San Diego State. Plus the offense has not been the same since losing their best wide-receiver John Ursua (47 catches/5 touchdowns)to a leg injury on 10/22. Check out the wins for Utah State. When the Aggies succeed they don't fool around. The victories have come by scores of 51-13, 61-10, 40-24, 52-28, and 24-10. Hence I don't mind giving around 10 especially considering three of those lopsided wins were on the road. Hawaii's average loss here has been by 16-points per game in their last four visits to Logan. Hawaii now 0-6 ATS after two or more consecutive defeats under Coach Rolovich and 3-11 ATS versus conference opponents. NOTE: Hawaii 0-9 ATS in weeks #10-13 the last three seasons getting outscored on average 37-20. The Rainbow Warriors are 2-13 ATS in the second half of the season the last three years.
OC Dooley
2 Units TCU / Texas Tech Under 52.5
Most reading this analysis are aware that Texas Tech loves to PASS the football in a preferred "air raid" attack that former head coach Mike Leach originally made famous. However with STRONG WINDS it is difficult to throw on every down and the SUSTAINED wind speed in this early kickof are slated to be in the 20 mile per hour range (with stronger gusts especially early in the contest). There is also INJURY news as Texas Christian quarterback Kenny Hill is OUT along with Texas Tech running back Justin Stockton
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary +112 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. The Flyers return home after a quick two game western road trip that saw them drop both games to the Wild and Jets respectively. Going back to last Saturday's home game with Minnesota, the Flyers have only mustered two goals in their last three games. The Flyers have been shut out five times already this season, making them a boom or bust selection. As long as the Flyers continue to send Brian Elliot to the crease we are going to continue fading them. Elliot signed a 2.5 million dollar deal in the offseason so the Flyers are going to run him out there even though they have a better option sitting on the bench in Michal Neuvirth. Philly should take a cue from the Bruins, who have finally sat Tuukka Rask in favor of the superior Anton Khudobin, who we have championed all season. Sometimes it takes more than a spreadsheet to tell you if a goalie is good or not.
The Flames were blasted 8-2 in Detroit on Wednesday night, and after getting beat up on the score sheet and on the ice, this Calgary team has had its toughness questioned locally by morning radio host and former player Rhett Warrener. Michael Ferland took the brunt of Warrener's criticism for failing to reel in the Wings' Luke Witkowski, who is nothing more than a goon. Warrener is a relic and guys like Witkowski have no place in today's NHL. The skill level in this league is too high and the players are too fast. For traditionalists that still romanticize “old time hockey,” the game is leaving you behind. Ferland's job is to score goals and put up points just like he’s been doing with goals in five straight games. Like most Canadian teams, the Flames play in a bubble so everything they do is overanalyzed to death, as there are more hours in the day to fill on the radio then there are interesting things to talk about. After getting blown out, the best thing for the Flames is that they are still on the road and away from the talking heads. These guys should be supremely motivated after such a lopsided loss and Calgary will only be boosted by the return of starting goaltender Mike Smith. Smith brings a swag to this team and they play totally different in front of him than they do a guy like Eddie Lack, who hasn’t been able to stop a beach ball since leaving Vancouver. Smith might not stop them all, but he makes the big save when the Flames need it. The Flames are quietly a top-10 Corsi For% (8th) sandwiched between the Blue Jackets and Penguins, two teams that are much more highly regarded in the market. The Flames are undervalued in a strong bounce back spot and we’re on it.
Edmonton -½ +147 over DALLAS
Regulation only. Dallas returns home from a 3-game trip after losing all three games. We’re not going to attack the Stars, as they are much improved from last year, especially on the defensive end, where Coach Ken Hitchcock has put his mark on a team that didn’t play defense under the previous staff. The Stars only allowed 28, 29 and 28 shots on net respectively against Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay but between Ben Bishop and Kari Lehtonen, the pair allowed 15 goals against. Lehtonen is the confirmed goaltender for this one. When you have weak goaltending, it deflates everyone on the team. Dallas battled back from a 2-0 deficit in Florida to take a 3-2 lead into the third period but they couldn’t hold it. In the shootout, Dallas went first and scored but Lehtonen allowed two of three shooters to score and Dallas lost. In Carolina, Dallas and the ‘Canes were tied going to the third but four unanswered goals on nine shots on Ben Bishop allowed Carolina to put the Stars away. In the final game of said trip in Tampa, the shots on net were even but the Bolts won 6-1. Dallas will also play its fourth game in six nights here and Edmonton is not the team to be tired against.
Weak goaltending is precisely what the doctor ordered for the Oilers to play against but no matter how you break it down and aside from its last game against St. Louis, Edmonton is playing well enough to win a lot more games than they are. The Oilers have run into their fair share of hot goaltending this season so perhaps they’ll get a break here. Regardless, Connor McDavid is a true leader in every sense of the word. This guy hates to lose more than anyone but more importantly, the losing hasn’t broken his spirit. The Oilers have lost three of four games with only win over that span occurring against expansion Vegas but we’re not about to give up them yet because the metrics say not to. Edmonton is still a top-5 possession team that continues to create more chances than most. Being on the road here might also be beneficial, as they get away from all the scrutiny they’re taking in Edmonton. The Oil will go on a run at some point and as long as prices are being offered on them or when they are evenly priced as they are here, we’re happy to stick with them.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Under 6
This is a high total because of all this star power on offense, but don't overlook how good these defenses can be. Chicago is #10 in the league in goals allowed, eighth in penalty killing. The Blackhawks are 33-15-12 UNDER the total against the Metropolitan division. Pittsburgh is just #22 in goals scored and the defense plays its best hockey at home, where they have yet to lose in regulation. Goalie Matt Murray improved to 4-2-0 with a .910 save percentage this month after a 3-1 victory at Ottawa on Thursday. The Penguins are 7-2-1 UNDER the total playing on one day of rest, plus 7-3 UNDER against the Western Conference. When these teams meet there is more defense than you might think, on a 5-1-2 run UNDER the total, including 4-0-2 UNDER at Pittsburgh.