Rob Vinciletti
Washington St at California
Play: California +15
Cal is getting over 2 touchdowns here at home and should stay within the number here at home where they have won 7 of 11 against Washington St. The Cougars are looking at a potential flat spot after blasting Oregon and upsetting USC at home. They will get the win but are just 1-5 ats on week days and have failed to cover 5 of 6 as a conference road favorite of 6 or more. Take the 15+ points with California.
ASA
Senators vs. Flames
Play: Under 5½
The Flames have a very strong blue line. Calgary has gone over the total in 2 of their 4 games this season but the long-term trend will prove out with the Flames being more of an "under" team this season. In the early season action it takes awhile for the markets to adjust properly and the result is value in a spot like this with this total at 5.5 goals when, arguably, a total at the key number of 5 would be more appropriate. The Flames are allowing just 2.25 goals per game this season and Ottawa has allowed just 2 goals in each of their last 2 games. Each of those games stayed under the total for the Senators and Ottawa has had just 3 overs in their last 9 Friday night games. The Senators also continue to be impacted by the absence of Erik Karlsson and the result is the Sens are purposefully trying to play a defensive-minded game limiting their opponents chances. Winning a tight low-scoring game is what the Sens are happy to do and the Flames, as noted above, are very solid in their own zone as they have an excellent roster of defensemen. We expect 4 goals here or 5 at the most so take advantage of the value here.
Mike Anthony
Florida State vs. Duke
Play: Duke +7
5.87 YPC senior RB, Shaun Wilson- can absolutely move the ball and create big plays on the field for Duke to get into great position on the field. If the Blue Devils pick up the important 1st downs and Wilson picks up his typical tough yards - there is just no possible way Florida State can beat this Duke team. Ball control and on the field leadership has been key for Duke and their running game. Just not 100% sure the sad offense of FSU is the most efficient way to try to scare Duke and their struggle to get points on the board has been proven. Defensive Coordinator, Charles Kelly will be forced into getting more out of their mediocre defenders to put more work into their defense than Kelly will feel comfortable doing trying to stop the backs of Duke. The Seminoles only have 1 win over the season - and it was a against a poor running Wake Forest. Blue Devils are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Duke pulls the upset here at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +164 over HOUSTON
New York is back in the ALCS for the first time since 2012 and Houston has advanced to the semi-finals for the first time since a World Series run in 2005. Game 1 features the same pitching matchup from the 2015 Wild Card game at Yankee Stadium, which the Astros won 3-0. Of course, an awful lot has changed since then for both teams—Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez hadn’t even reached the majors yet, Alex Rodriguez led New York in home runs, and Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran were Yankees.Keuchel has owned the Yankees throughout his career, posting a 1.24 ERA and 52/7 K/BB ratio in 50 2/3 career innings. That includes six shutout innings in the 2015 Wild Card game and six shutout innings in his lone start versus New York this season back on May 11. By (somewhat controversially) using Justin Verlander as a reliever in Game 4 of the ALDS, the Astros forced themselves into sticking Keuchel atop the ALCS
Keuchel has owned the Yankees throughout his career, posting a 1.24 ERA and 52/7 K/BB ratio in 50 2/3 career innings. That includes six shutout innings in the 2015 Wild Card game and six shutout innings in his lone start versus New York this season back on May 11. By (somewhat controversially) using Justin Verlander as a reliever in Game 4 of the ALDS, the Astros forced themselves into sticking Keuchel atop the ALCS rotation, but based on his track record that may have been the plan all along.
Keuchel’s ERA spiked as his strand rate nosedived in 2016 because of the convergence of less grounders, less strikeouts and more homers allowed. All have edged back, more or less, in 2017. He keeps the ball on the ground at an elite level primarily by throwing a heavy sinker 47% of the time. The sinker induces grounders at a 75% clip, but he also sports a 50%+ ground ball rate on all of his other pitches (four-seam, slider, cutter, change-up). With a fastball that averages less than 89 mph, Keuchel certainly isn't your prototypical front-of-the-rotation starter but his combination of swing-and-miss off-speed pitches, and extreme ground ball inducing stuff, gets the job done. Still, the Yanks just faced the combination of Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer and so facing Keuchel is not going to faze them one bit. Keuchel has had several poor outings over the past two seasons.
New York started Luis Severino in this year’s Wild Card game and Sonny Gray in Game 1 of the ALDS, but now Tanaka gets his turn to headline the rotation. Tanaka was brilliant in Game 3 of the ALDS, shutting out the Indians for seven innings, and racked up 15 strikeouts in his final regular-season start. However, given that he allowed 35 homers in 30 starts overall this year, Houston’s power-packed lineup is a particularly daunting matchup for Tanaka. Tanaka gave up homers to Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez in losing the 2015 Wild Card game, and he got rocked for eight runs (on four homers) in his lone start against the Astros this season on May 14. That’s nice but the same thing was said about Tanaka when he faced the Indians in a small park and made them look like the Padres. Tanaka is a different pitcher now than he was in May. All that fly-ball talk is nonsense.
Tanaka’s groundball rate this year was 52%. His swing and miss rate since August is an elite 21%. Over his last 31 innings, Tanaka has struck out 39 batters and walked seven. Hitters are clearly having trouble making good contact against Tanaka’s varied arsenal and when they do hit the ball, it’s usually on the ground. Pay no attention to the media types that point out Tanaka’s “off-year”. Fact is, he struggled early on but has been one of MLB’s best pitchers for over two months. The days off between games doesn’t do the Astronauts any good either. No matter how you break it down, the Yanks have a seriously legit shot to win Game 1, as Tanaka is simply too good to be spotting a price like this to and so is that Yankees bullpen. Big time overlay here.
SPORTS WAGERS
CALIFORNIA +16½ over Washington State
Buying low and selling high is a principle we champion adamantly. There are few teams in the country with a higher stock right now than the Washington State Cougars. The Cougars continue to climb in the polls and have now broken into the top-10 for the first time since 2003. That makes the Cougars a prime target for us, be that backers will now pay even more to get behind them. The Cougars remain unscathed on the season and are authors of a result that has sent shockwaves across the college football landscape when they took down pre-season Pac-12 and College Football Playoff favorite USC in Pullman by a score of 30-27, two weeks ago. At the time, USC was ranked #5 in the country. Coming in off such a hard-fought and emotional win, the Cougars were positioned perfectly to be a great fade in their follow-up. Coupling a likely overreaction due to the magnitude of the victory against the Men of Troy with the fact they were facing their first road test of the year in a notoriously hostile environment, WSU was set up to stub its toe when it took on Oregon at the infamous Autzen Zoo. However, Washington State cruised past Oregon in an outright rout. There was no letdown, instead it was a 23-point blowout victory on the road and we are the beneficiaries of that this week.
Football can be a wonderful distraction from all of the unfortunate events that life may throw at us. Many teams’ in the Florida and Houston area lifted the spirits of the good folks of those regions and we saw what the Las Vegas Knights did in its inaugural game just 10 days after the tragic event in that great city. Situationally, a similar scenario can arise in Berkeley with the tragic wildfires that are currently ravaging the region. In addition to the heightened motivation the Bears figure to have to play for its neighbors in the Bay Area, air quality is quite poor at the moment. In fact, the NCAA was flirting with the possibility of cancelling this contest but changes in weather conditions allowed for the game to be played under the parameters of the NCAA’s policy regarding air pollutants and public safety.
Big C’s offensive operations hit a brick wall in its last game against Washington where the Bears were rolled 38-7 but this is California’s first home game since its 30-20 climactic defeat when it hosted USC here three weeks ago. Memorial Stadium will once again be rocking like it was when their downstate rivals came to town. It is without question that the Golden Bears will look to take advantage of another opportunity to play the role of the “perpetual thorn in the side”. The Bears relished that opportunity against USC when the Trojans were in upset alert mode all day and they’ll embrace this opportunity too. The Bears can come in under the number so many ways here, least of which is through the back-door.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW JERSEY +125 over Washington
OT included. From our vantage point, there is a completely different feel to the Capitals this year. Last year’s early exit again from the playoffs may have finally taken a toll on this group. The window for a championship has closed, as 90% of the league got younger and quicker while the Capitals have gotten musty. In the off-season Washington brought in Devante Smith-Pelly. That’s it. The departed are Marcus Johansson, Kevin Shattenkirk, Justin Williams, Karl Alzner and Nate Schmidt. The Caps are now left with a bunch of stale players that have seen their opportunity go by the wayside. The Caps opened the season 2-0 but were the second best team on the ice both games. When they defeated Montreal 6-1, the Habs were skating circles around this team by outshooting them 39-23 and out-chancing them by a wide margin too. The Caps have been outshot in every game. They rank 27 out of 31 teams in Corsi against. They rank 28 out of 31 teams in time spent in the offensive end. In their 3-2 loss to the Penguins on Wednesday night, Pittsburgh outshot them 36-22 and made them look slow and old. Perhaps they are. The Capitals are favored on the road here because of their pedigree but the landscape has changed. The Capitals are no longer a powerhouse and the locker room is probably not that upbeat either.
There’s a different feel to the Devils too only theirs is to the good. The Devils have already established a different identity from years past. They’re fast; they’re supportive; they’re attacking and they’re dangerous. The team has scored at least four goals in each of the games played and between the defense and Cory Schneider, no more than three have gone in on any given night. The Devils aren’t just winning but they’re winning convincingly. The Devils are rolling out four scoring lines with balance. An influx of youth, speed, talent and confidence has all gelled together and no longer do guys like Taylor Hall have to be relied upon to have a big game in order for this team to win. We should also not forget that Cory Schneider is one of the best in the game and now he has some offensive support. The fans are going to flock to this arena to see this reenergized squad and in case you forgot, Devils fans used to make Continental Airlines Arena hell for the visitor. They can do the same at the Prudential Center. Man, is this line off. Wrong side favored.
Harry Bondi
CALIFORNIA (+16.5) over Washington State
Tough spot for Washington State here as they are coming off huge back to back wins over Southern Cal & Oregon and may suffer a letdown and get caught looking past a Cal squad that has gotten pounded on the road the last two weeks by Washington & Oregon. But the Bears have been tough at home going 3-0 ATS including losing by just 10 to Southern Cal the last time they were at home. We see a similar margin tonight so we will take the generous points with Cal.
OC Dooley
Red Wings +120
Host Las Vegas is the first expansion team in hockey HISTORY to win the initial 3 games but they are in a classic emotional "letdown" spot just two days removed from an emotional home opener where victims along with first responders of the horrible mass shooting were honored. Due to their incredible start Las Vegas has now been cast as a prohibitive favorite putting an "expansion" franchise in a wagering setup they have never had to previously deal with. One of the keys to this late night wager actually has to do visiting Detroit who is a year removed from seeing a remarkable 25 year run of playoff qualification finally coming to an end. Rather than starting over the franchise stuck with veteran talent and the team has WON 3 of 4 games out of the gate