Sunday 12/1/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NBA games.
JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Eagles vs. Dolphins
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Philadelphia Eagles -9.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are expected to get back Alshon Jeffery, Lane Johnson and Nelson Agholor from injury this week. They were short-handed on offense last week and it showed in their loss to the Seahawks. Now getting their weapons back, and still with a legit chance to win the NFC East, look for the Eagles to take out their frustration on the Miami Dolphins Sunday. They Dolphins have come back down to reality the last two weeks by losing 20-37 at home to Buffalo and 24-41 at Cleveland. The Eagles will likely be able to name their number offensively, and their defense remains one of the best in the NFL and should shut down this awful Miami offense. The Dolphins are only scoring 14.8 points per game this season and 13.7 points per game at home. They have actually played better on the road than at home this year. The Dolphins are 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing more than 30 points last game. Give me the Eagles.
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BRANDON LEE
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Chargers vs. Broncos
10* FREE NFL PICK (Broncos +3)
I'll take my chances here with Denver catching a field goal at home against the Chargers. I've been spot on with the Broncos the last two weeks, cashing an easy winner as a 10-point dog at Minnesota and then playing against them as a slim 3.5-point dog in last week's ugly loss to the Bills.
Big reason I was against the Broncos last week, was because of how they lost that game against the Vikings. Also being on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. I believe Denver is now poised for a big bounce back effort at home against a division rival. I also think the offense could get a big boost here with the expected debut of rookie quarterback Drew Lock.
As for the Chargers, they just keep getting respect despite a poor product on the field. LA's offense hasn't been good at all and this Denver defense is not the reason they are sitting at 3-9. They are only giving up 18.2 ppg at home and opposing QB's are only averaging 185 passing yards/game against them in Denver. I just don't think Philip Rivers will be able to do enough with how bad that offensive line is.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a loss by 14 or more and 11-3 ATS last 14 after a game where they totaled 150 or fewer passing yards. Chargers just 3-7-2 ATS last 12 overall.
Chargers turned it over 4 times in their last game against KC and finished with a -3 turnover margin in that game. Favorites after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are just 9-30 (23%) ATS over the last 3 seasons. Give me the Broncos +3!
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WILL ROGERS
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Chargers vs. Broncos
UNDER 38½
The set-up: The Broncos are officially out of the playoff picture. The Chargers are on the verge of being eliminated as well, as they come out of their bye week in a "must win" scenario. Denver comes in off a humbling loss to the Bills, but it'll be playing for pride here at home as it looks to play the role of spoiler vs. Philip Rivers and the Chargers, who continue to struggle with offensive consistency this season. Rivers looks his age this year and I believe the veteran will predictably struggle in the high altitude of Denver vs. a Broncos team that's clearly in a foul mood.
The pick: Additionally note that LA has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last six as a road favorite, while Denver has seen the total go under in four of five as a home dog of three points or less. Both from a situtational stand point and from a trend/numbers based one, I think this one sets up as more of a defensive affair than a "shootout." Consider the under.
1* FREE PLAY on the UNDER Chargers/Broncos.
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RICKY TRAN
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Packers vs. Giants
Packers-6 -118
My 1* FREE PLAY is on the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay is now tied with Minnesota at 8-3 for the NFC North lead after a terrible 37-8 loss at San Francisco last weekend. The Vikes are in Seattle on Monday Night, so this is a big opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to get untracked.
The Giants are in terrible form, losers of seven straight. The uncertainty at QB going into the season is still a concern right now. Why start putting together victories at this point when you're so close to earning the No. 1 spot in the draft?
Key Trends:
- Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a loss by 14 points or more.
- New York is just 1-4 ATS at home this season.
- The Giants are only 1-3 ATS this year off a road loss.
The verdict: As mentioned off the top, this is a big game for Green Bay. After coming out of its bye week with a pathetic effort vs. the 49ers, I look for it to "right the ship" in this very winnable contest; lay the points!
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JACK JONES
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Redskins vs. Panthers
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Carolina Panthers -10
The Carolina Panthers are in need of a win to stay alive in the playoff chase. They have played a tough schedule here of late with close losses to the Packers and Saints on the road, and a bad loss to the Falcons at home. But now they get to face the lowly Washington Redskins to get right.
The Redskins are just 2-9 this season and scoring a league-low 13.1 points per game. They have given the reigns at QB to Dwayne Haskins, and it’s not going well for him. Haskins is completing just 54.6% of his passes with a 2-to-6 TD/INT ratio and 6.1 yards per attempt. Case Keenum has been the much more effective quarterback with 67% completions, a 9-to-4 ratio and 7.1 per attempt. It’s mind-boggling that they are going with Haskins.
Washington is coming off a misleading 19-16 win over Detroit last week that actually has them overvalued this week. They were outgained by 134 yards by the Lions a week after getting outgained by 175 yards by the Jets in a 17-34 loss. The Panthers are better than both of those teams. The Redskins are 2-8 in their last 10 games with all eight of those losses coming by 9 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out this season. They are getting outscored by 11.4 points per game on the season.
Christian McCaffrey is in line for a big day on the ground against a Redskins defense that allows 369.0 yards per game, including 138 yards per game and 4.3 per carry rushing. And the Panthers will be up against a Washington defense that will be without their best pass rusher in Ryan Kerrigan. He is out with a concussion, and stud DT Da’Ron Payne is questionable with an ankle injury.
The Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Carolina is also 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Panthers are 36-12 ATS in their last 48 against poor offensive teams that score 17 or fewer points per game. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
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ROB VINCILETTI
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
49ers vs. Ravens
Ravens-5½
The NFL Comp Play is on Baltimore at 1:00 eastern. We have a potential Super bowl matchup today and the Ravens have some solid advantages even with the bad weather expected. Teams who scored 30 or more on Monday night football and allowed less than 10 are 33-5 straight up since 190 and 7-1 ats over the last 9 years. SF has trouble with mobile Quarter backs and we never like West coast teams coming east in Early starts particularly vs top level teams. Look for Baltimore to win and cover.
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JACK BRAYMAN
My free winner for Sunday is on the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Jaguars are mired in a three-game losing streak, and the Buccaneers are in after an impressive stifling of the Atlanta Falcons.
At some point Jags coach Doug Marrone will address the problem his team has in the second half, and I think this is a good week to do so.
Jacksonville has been outscored a combined 52-8 in the third quarter the last three games - three losses that dropped the Jags from being a .500 team with a good chance to challenge for a wild-card spot, into the 11th place team in the AFC.
This could be the week the Jags find their way into the end zone in the third and fourth quarters.
Tampa Bay's opponents have more touchdowns than the Bucs in the second half, 22 to 15, and the Buccaneers have the 21st-ranked defense in the league. And given those two stats, consider this: the Bucs have scored 312 points, third most in the NFL. That’s the most Tampa Bay has ever had through 11 games. And yet this is a 4-7 football team.
That defense is far too inconsistent.
And the turnovers, pfft. Jameis Winston is a turnover machine. He's thrown a league-leading 20 interceptions and also lost four fumbles through 11 games.
Finally, the Jaguars are 3-for-3 against Tampa Bay in Jacksonville.
Lay the chalk in this one.
3* JAGUARS
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KEVIN DOLAN
Event: (465) New York Jets at (466) Cincinnati Bengals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 1, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Cincinnati Bengals 3.5 (-110)
With the news that Andy Dalton returns to QB duties for the Bengals on Sunday, we have that marked as an overall upgrade over the change from Ryan Finley, and our numbers have this game at Cincinnati -1. That makes for a ton of value at the market-wide number of Cincinnati getting over a field goal and this is a premium play for us over at Wagertalk at the current number.
Take the Bengals plus the points on Sunday.
PLAY: CINCINNATI BENGALS +3.5
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BOBBY LIGS
Event: (467) Los Angeles Rams at (468) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 1, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Arizona Cardinals 4.0 (-110)
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VEGAS SYNERGY
Event: (469) Los Angeles Chargers at (470) Denver Broncos
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 1, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 (-110)
Chargers -3 This is the superior team top to bottom. Chargers should finally get thgeir act together here
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HAKEEM PROFIT
Event: (473) New England Patriots at (474) Houston Texans
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 1, 2019 8PM EST
Play: Total Under 44.5 (-110)
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Tony Mejia
#455 49ers
#454 Panthers
#460 Dolphins
#461 Raiders
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Howard Barish
#451 GB Packers
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Matt Zylbert
W.G.Ramirez
#457 Titans
#451 Packers
#464 Jaguars
#473 Patriots
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Mike Wynn
Free Winner: NBA Utah +2½ Over Toronto
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Totals4U
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Tennessee Titans/Indianapolis Colts under 42
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Atlantic Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Boston Celtics - 7 1/2
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: the Detroit Pistons -4 over San Antonio
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Sunday: Miami Dolphins + 10
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Sunday : TAMPA BAY/JACKSONVILLE UNDER the total of 48
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: WASHINGTON/CAROLINA OVER the total of 38½
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Sunday: CLEVELAND/PITTSBURGH UNDER the total of 39
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, December 1, 2019
NFL (455) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (456) BALTIMORE RAVENS
Take: (456) BALTIMORE RAVENS
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Roz Wins
Roz's SUNDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2019 Free Pick
(469) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS (470) DENVER BRONCOS
Take : Chargers
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play Sunday, December 1, 2019
(463) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS (464) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Take : Bucs
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Sunday
Washington +10
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Hawkeye Sports
Early Sunday's Free Pick: West Virginia - 9
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play:
Cleveland -2'
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Arthur Ralph
FREE play Sun: Packers -6
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Kenny Towers
Your Free Pick for Sunday: Phil/Miami UNDER 44½
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Free Early Sunday Football Selection Is
CAROLINA -10
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CALVIN KING
NHL | Dec 01, 2019
Stars vs. Wild
[1%] Free Play on Stars -102
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STEVE JANUS
NHL | Dec 01, 2019
Stars vs. Wild
1* Free Sharp Play on Stars -102
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MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Bucs vs. Jaguars
Bucs-2½
Play - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Game 463).
Edges - Buccaneers: Head coach Bruce Arians 22-11 SUATS away versus losing opponents … Jaguars: 1-11 ATS as a non-division favorite off a division game when facing an opponent coming off a division game … We recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.
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MATT JOSEPHS
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Eagles vs. Dolphins
Dolphins+11 -130
The Eagles have lost two straight and four of their last six. Philly's offense has been awful as of late as the skill position guys continue to be banged up. It looks like Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz all will play, but how healthy are they. Philly's defense has been much improved, but what's their mindset coming out of two huge games at home against better competition. Miami's offense has shown a pulse with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. The signal caller has a decent history against the Eagles. Yes, Miami's defense has been ravaged the last two weeks by the Bills and Browns allowing 78 points. Quite simply, the reason why this is a free play and not a pay one because if the Eagles want to, they can win this game by a ton. Also, this will feel like a Philly home game. Don't go nuts here, but I'll play a hunch that Philly is a little hungover and may take some time to get going.
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Rams vs. Cardinals
Rams-2½ -120
Sunday's FREE WINNER: Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles has won and covered the L4 in this series and have been money on the road in 2019, donning a 4-1 ATS mark as a guest. Arizona's three victories have come against teams that are a combined, 5-29 (Atlanta, Cincinnati, NYG). The Rams "D" got steamrolled on Monday Night Football by the Ravens and will bounce back here. Expect Jared Goff to pick apart the 32nd ranked pass defense in football. L.A. is 9-2 ATS the L11 vs. the NFC, 6-1 ATS the L7 on the road, and 5-1 ATS the L6 vs. losers. Take the Rams. Thank you.
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STEPHEN DeANGELO
For Sunday’s NFL freebie, we’ll take the points with the Cardinals in their NFC West clash with the Rams.
It was just six days ago that the sputtering Rams faced a dual-threat quarterback and got absolutely torched, falling 45-6 at home to Lamar Jackson (5 TD passes, 95 rushing yards) and the Ravens. No, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray hasn’t been as dangerous as Jackson this season, but he’s certainly had his moments in what has been an above-average rookie season. For proof, just look at what Murray did against the 49ers’ top-ranked defense in Arizona’s most recent game two weeks ago: 24-for-33, 150 yards, two TD passes, 67 rushing yards and a TD run.
The 49ers won that game 36-26 in San Francisco as a 10-point favorite, but it was a very misleading final score as Arizona held leads of 16-0, 19-17 and 26-23 (with 6:30 to play in the game). The only reason the Cardinals didn’t at least cover the spread was they fumbled on the final play of the game, and the Niners’ D recovered and trotted 4 yards into the end zone.
Even with that push, the Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS (7-2-1 ATS as an underdog), including 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven. Now, fresh of a much-needed bye week, they’re going up against an opponent that all of a sudden cannot score (the Rams have scored 35 total points in their last three) and is struggling to win games (LA is just 3-5 in its last eight, 1-2 on the road—including a loss to Mason Rudolph and the Steelers).
Despite its 3-7-1 SU record, Arizona has been highly competitive for much of the season, and I expect that to continue at home today against a Rams squad that just cannot be trusted as a favorite right now—especially on the road, in a divisional game, just six days removed from an embarrassing home loss on Monday Night Football.
4* ARIZONA
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Dxpsports
nba new orleans pelicans ‑135
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Doug Upstone
#459/0 Ph Eagles/Mi Dolphins Under
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Ramon Scott
#465 New York Jets
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Nick Pellegrino
#455 San Francisco 49ers
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Ched Whitney
#462 Kansas City Chiefs
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BOBBY CONN
NBA | Dec 01, 2019
Mavs vs. Lakers
1* Free Play on Lakers -6½ -109
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BOB VALENTINO
Sunday comp play for Week Thirteen is Over the total in the Tampa Bay-Jacksonville game.
The Bucs just posted 35 points in their road win at Atlanta, as the teams combined for 57 points and an Over. That Over puts the Tampa Over streak at 9 in a row since opening the year with Unders in their first 2 games of the season.
The Jaguars defense has been shredded for 75 points in their pair of games since their bye-week, as both of those games have landed Over the total. Over the Jags last 8 games, the Over stands at 5-2-1.
Neither of these teams is going to be playing playoff football come January, so look for them to just come out today in this Sunshine State battle and play some free and easy football.
With a few more turnovers again in last week's win at the Falcons, you can assume Jameis Winston is good for a turnover or two today that will lead to some quick scores. You can also assume that with a pair of 1,000 yard wide receivers - Mike Evans and Chris Godwin - at his disposal that the Bucs are going to post some points today.
These teams have shown they like to play'em high based on the season trends, so play this Bucs-Jags game Over the total for Week Thirteen on the early afternoon card.
3* TAMPA BAY-JACKSONVILLE OVER
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MITCHELL NEWMAN
Sunday comp play is to back the ascending Cleveland Browns as they look for their first win in the Steel City since all the way back in 2003 as they visit the limping Pittsburgh Steelers this Sunday afternoon.
Cleveland has won their last 3 games, the middle win during their current surge coming at home under the Monday lights against Pittsburgh, 21-7. We all know what went down at the end of that game, and you can be sure emotions will be high when these rivals take to the field for the rematch.
The Browns are fresh off a 41-24 romp over the Miami Dolphins, with quarterback Baker Mayfield certainly raising his level of play as he has thrown for 7 touchdowns versus just 1 pick during the Brownies 3 game uptick,
The Steelers kept themselves alive in the playoff conversation by holding off the winless Cincinnati Bengals, 19-16 last weekend. Delvin "Duck" Hodges took over at quarterback last week for the ineffective Mason Rudolph, and Duck is expected to start this afternoon's key division meeting.
With both James Conner and JuJu Schuster both battling injuries, this Pittsburgh team is going to have its work cut our for them if they are going to avoid the regular season series sweep this afternoon.
Things are starting to finally go Cleveland's way, and I will lay the small road wood with them today to run their win streak to 4 in a row.
5* CLEVELAND
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CHRIS JORDAN
My free play for Sunday is on the New England Patriots against the Houston Texans on Sunday night, as I like the road chalk in this one.
And as I always insist, with football favorites in this range, we're buying half points. And if this game is in between -2.5 and -4.5 points, I want you purchasing the half point down.
Isn't it crazy to think we saw the Baltimore Ravens shut both of these teams down, and while they've emerged as the 3-to-1 favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Pats are just behind at 3.5-to-1.
Maybe it's because New England is in after shutting down the league's No. 1 offense. And that's the one thing I continue to be impressed with when it comes to this Patriots team is the defense. On pace to challenge the record for fewest points allowed in a season, New England beat Dallas 13-9 on Sunday, holding the league’s top-rated offense without a touchdown.
What that unit does is the continue to take pressure off Tom Brady and a Patriots offense that lacks consistency.
Something tells me the offense will be ringing in this one. If you remember, New England beat Houston 27-20 last season.
The Patriots rank fifth in the league in scoring, because of the great field position delivered by their defense. They also have gotten six touchdowns from the defense or special teams. Now, in terms of yards gained, the Patriots rank 17th in the league. That's not necessarily all that bad, and could work against a Texans team that ranks 20th in the league in allowing 367.3 yards per game.
Houston has been torched by the Saints, Colts and Ravens this season. The Texans are giving up an average of 22.6 points per game, so it's not as if the Patriots won't stand a chance to move the ball.
I'm rolling with the Patriots here, as Tom Brady loves shining in the spotlight and will light up Houston in the Sunday night game.
4* PATRIOTS
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Paul Leiner
Three NFL picks 12/1
100* Dolphins +10
100* Patriots -3
100* Over 42.5 Jets/Bengals
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KENNY WALKER
NBA | Dec 01, 2019
Grizzlies vs. Wolves
Wolves-9 -109
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HUNTER PRICE
NBA | Dec 01, 2019
Thunder vs. Pelicans
1* Free Pick on Pelicans -2 -109
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TOTALS GURU
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Titans vs. Colts
Free Total Annihilator On Titans vs Colts under 43½ -110
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JIMMY BOYD
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Jets vs. Bengals
1* NFL - Free Pick on Jets/Bengals over 42 -110
I believe the books have completely missed the mark with the total in Sunday's AFC game between the Jets and Bengals. New York's offense has come alive in the last 3 weeks, putting up 34 on the Giants, 34 on the Redskins and 34 most recently on the Raiders.
I see no reason to not expect another big day offensively against a bad Bengals team. Cincinnati's defense has looked decent the last couple of weeks against some bad offensive teams, but are still giving up 26.5 ppg and 6.6 yards/play on the season. Those numbers also get worse at home, as they are allowing 31.8 ppg and 7.0 yards/play at Paul Brown Stadium.
As for the Bengals offense, they should offer a bigger threat to score with the move back to veteran Andy Dalton at quarterback. It also helps they are going up against a Jets defense that is giving up 26.6 ppg. I think this total is a full 6 points below what it should be.
OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in the series. It's also 8-1 in the Bengals last 9 with a spread of +3 to -3 and 13-4 in their last 17 at home after 6 or more consecutive losses. OVER is 9-0 in the Jets last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. Take the OVER!
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SAL MICHAELS
NCAA-B | Dec 01, 2019
Maryland vs. Marquette
Free Play on Maryland -2½ -109
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