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Free NFL, NCAAF & MLB Service Plays For Saturday 10/5/19

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(@shazman)
Posts: 57828
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Saturday 10/5/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.

 
Posted : October 5, 2019 7:54 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57828
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Red Dog Sports
Oct 05 '19, 10:00 AM in 2h
Soccer | Stoke City vs Swansea City
Play on: Swansea City +110 at Pinnacle

Swansea +110

The free soccer play takes place in England's Championship league on Saturday. Take Swansea +110.

Stoke 1

Swansea 2
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Kenny Walker
Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Iowa vs Michigan
Play on: Michigan -3½ -109 at GTBets

Free Pick on Michigan
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Bryan Leonard
Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Kent State vs Wisconsin
Play on: Kent State +37 -109 at GTBets

333 Kent State at Wisconsin

Extra week to prepare for the Golden Flashes who are off a confidence building blowout of Bowling Green. With a bad Akron team on deck, the rivalry game doesn't hold the same importance as usual. That gives the team something to play for this week against Wisconsin.

The Badgers had a letdown last week after the domination of Michigan. But the team does have a lookahead with Michigan State on deck. Does Wisconsin have the ability to run this score up? Yes, but this is a rare non-conference game in the middle of the Big 10 season. Something that hasn't happened since 2013. We expect the Badgers to run the ball and get out of the game injury free, as the season priority remains to win the conference.

PLAY KENT STATE
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Jimmy Boyd
Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Penn State
Play on: Purdue +28½ -105 at Bovada

1* Free NCAAF Pick on Purdue Boilermakers +28½ -105

I see a ton of value here with Purdue getting more than 4 touchdowns against the Nittany Lions. Penn State is coming off a 59-0 win at Maryland as a mere 6-point favorite to improve to 3-1 ATS on the season. Public was a little cautious backing this team early with all the new faces, but not any more.

The perception with Purdue is that they are done for. Not only are they off to a 1-3 start, but they may have just lost starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar for the rest of the season and future NFL wide out Rondale Moore is sidelined with a hamstring injury. They just lost at home 38-31 to Minnesota. Even though the Gophers are 4-0, they are considered to be a fluke so most see that as a bad loss.

No one is giving the Boilermakers any kind of chance to not only win but keep this close. I think Jeff Brohm's team responds with a huge effort. At the same time, I see this as a huge trap game for Penn State. They were clearly out to make a statement against Maryland and certainly can't feel threatened by Purdue here. Not to mention they got a huge road game at Iowa on deck, with a home game against Michigan and road slate at Michigan State after that.

This is a young Penn State team, which I think makes them a little more vulnerable to letdowns. Nittany Lions are just 7-19 (27%) ATS in their last 26 home games after covering 3 of their last 4. Boilermakers 11-4-2 ATS last 17 on the road vs a team with a winning record and Brohm has a 10-2 ATS mark as a head coach vs top tier teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take Purdue!
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Steve Janus
Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Army
Play on: UNDER 43½ -105

1* Free Sharp Play on Tulane vs Army under 43½ -105

My money is on the UNDER 43.5 in Saturday's showdown between Army and Tulane. Any time you get two option teams, the under is worth a look. Both sides want to grind out possessions and eat up the clock. There's just not enough opportunities to score and no guarantee the drive will end in a touchdown. On top of that, we got two talented football teams. Unlike a lot of other teams, they know how to stop the option from seeing it every day in practice. BET THE UNDER 43.5!
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Sal Michaels
Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Penn State
Play on: Penn State -28 -109 at GTBets

Free Play on Penn State -28 -109
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Mark Wilson
Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Oklahoma vs Kansas
Play on: Oklahoma -34 -110 at BMaker

Free Play on Oklahoma -34 -110

The #6 team in the country in Oklahoma (4-0) take on a struggling Kansas (2-3) team. The Sooners have looked like one of the best teams in the country this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is off to a great start to the season and looks like a certain Heisman finalist. Oklahoma's offense is first in yards per play, third in rushing, seventh in passing, and second in total points scored. Defensively this team has improved from last season and is 35th in points allowed. Kansas lost to a bad West Virginia team two weeks and are coming off a blow out loss to TCU last week 51-14. Les Miles first year in Kansas is not looking good. Oklahoma should come in and blow Kansas away for a second striaght week. 34 points won't be enough as this Sooners team should win by more than five touchdowns.
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Alex Smart
Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Army
Play on: Tulane -3 -120 at Mirage

Tulane is off an impressive 38-31 victory vs the Houston Cougars two weeks ago before their bye week and looked viable against Auburn in a 24-6 loss in their 2nd game of the campaign.

Now Tulane is getting alot of respect here in this matchup and rightly so. I know Army has not been an easy team to play against over the last couple of seasons, especially at home, but with QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr not 100% with an injured leg, the Cadets may not be as cohesive as needed vs a under rated Green Wave team that is built to handle the triple option. With that said Im betting on a well rested Tulane side to bring us home the cash here this Saturday.

ARMY is 2-11 ATS in home games against American Athletic conference opponents since 1992.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARMY) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover
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Totals Guru
Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech
Play on: UNDER 64 -110

Free Total Annihilator On Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech under 64 -110
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Bobby Conn
Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Ball State vs Northern Illinois
Play on: UNDER 55 -110

1* Free Play on Ball State/Northern Illinois under55 -110

With a combined record of 2-6, the Ball State Cardinals (1-3) and Northern Illinois Huskies (1-3) are set to do battle Saturday afternoon. The over/under is set at 55 points.

The Cardinals’ lone win of the season came against Fordham in early September. While allowing at least 34 points in every other contest, Ball State has lost to Indiana, FAU, and NC State.

On average, the Cardinals are scoring 34 points per game on 470 yards of offense while allowing 35 points per game on 417 yards.

The Ball State offense is led by quarterback Drew Plitt, who’s thrown for 1,373 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes.

After facing and beating Illinois State in the season opener, Northern Illinois has played a relatively tough schedule. The Huskies lost three straight away games to #13 Utah, Nebraska, and Vanderbilt.

On average, Northern Illinois is scoring 17 points per game on 357 yards of offense while allowing 28 points per game on 385 yards.

Quarterback Ross Bowers hasn’t been as effective as the Huskies would like. While completing 59.4% of his passes, Bowers has thrown for 1,056 yards, four touchdowns, and three picks.
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Kyle Hunter
Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Minnesota
Play on: Illinois +14 -102 at Pinnacle

*3 Star Free Pick* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 4-0, but they are 69th in the nation in yards per play margin. Minnesota has been extremely fortunate to win all four games so far this year. The Golden Gophers haven't played very well. Minnesota's rushing attack is averaging just 2.63 yards per carry so far this year.

Illinois only lost by 7 points at Minnesota two years ago as 14.5 point underdogs. The Fighting Illini crushed Minnesota last year 55-31 as Illinois ran for 430 yards. The Fighting Illini have enough talent to be more competitive in the Big Ten this year. Illinois is averaging 4.59 yards per carry so far this year, and I would expect them to run the ball a lot in this contest.

The weather is pretty significant here. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds and there is even a slight chance of a little rain early in the game. Heavy wind games have gone strongly towards big underdogs ATS in the long run because it can be an equalizer.

Minnesota is 4-0, but hasn't won a game by more than a touchdown so far this year. I'll grab the points. Take Illinois.
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Posted : October 5, 2019 8:02 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57828
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Brandon Lee
Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Minnesota
Play on: Minnesota -13½ -111 at BMaker

10* FREE NCAAF (Minnesota -13.5)

I know it hasn’t exactly been pretty for Minnesota early on in 2019, but I think they are hands down the better team in this matchup. In fact, I think because the Gophers have won ugly in a lot of their games and last time we saw Illinois they nearly upset Nebraska, the public will have a hard time laying this number with Minnesota.

I just think it was perfect storm for Illinois to make a game of it against the Cornhuskers. Nebraska was off a blowout win over Northern Illinois and had a massive game on deck at home against Ohio State. If the Cornhuskers simply take care of the football they win that game by 20+. They had a 375 yard edge in total yards.

Keep in mind, that looks a lot worse after how bad Nebraska just looked against Ohio State. Clearly they aren’t as good as we thought and yet they dominated Illinois. The other team the Fighting Illini lost to was Eastern Michigan and they needed a blocked punt return for a TD to beat Central Connecticut State at home last week. Their two wins are against Akron and UConn, who are a combined 1-8 with the only win by UConn 24-21 at home against Wagner.

The other thing to take into account is what happened in this matchup last year. There’s some losses you just brush off and there’s others that stick in the back of your head. I have a hard time believing that P.J. Fleck isn’t going to constantly be reminding his players of how awful they played in last year’s loss to Illinois.

I just think it’s going to be really tough for the Fighting Illini to keep this within the number. Give me Minnesota -13.5!
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ASA
Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Western Michigan vs Toledo
Play on: Western Michigan +1½ -110 at Mirage

#367 ASA FREE PLAY ON Western Michigan +1.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Toledo -4 and they have dropped to -1.5. Strange line move here as we would presume most would see this number and jump on the low home favorite Toledo who steps in with a 3-1 record vs a Bronco team with a 3-2 record. The Rockets are getting the majority of the tickets here yet this line dropped a full 2.5 points. That triggers a play on WMU for us. We agree with the move and like the match up here for Western Michigan. The Broncos 2 losses this year have come @ Michigan State and @ Syracuse, both expected. The only team to outgain Western Michigan this year is MSU and the Broncos are averaging 7.4 YPP while allowing just 5.9 YPP on the season. Their offense is very tough to slow down as they average 500 YPG on the year (200 rushing / 300 passing) and they have scored more than 30 points in every game with the exception of Michigan State who has one of the best defense teams in the nation. Toledo is 3-1 as we mentioned but they have been outgained by every FBS opponent they’ve faced this year. The only team they outgained this season was Murray State. Last week they played host to BYU and the Cougars led for most of the game but missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice inside Toledo territory. BYU outgained Toledo despite running 14 fewer offensive plays. The Rockets got an interception and returned it to the 2-yard line and scored a TD on the next play late in the game to pick up the 28-21 win. They were very fortunate. This is a revenger for Western Michigan as they lost at home to Toledo last year as a 4-point favorite. The Broncos lost starting QB Wassink early in the game to an injury and could not overcome it. The underdog has covered 10 of the last 13 in this MAC rivalry and we have Western rated as the better team here. We’ll take the points with Western Michigan.
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Dave Price
Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Ball State vs Northern Illinois
Play on: Ball State +4½ -105 at YouWager

Dave’s Saturday Free Play:

1* on Ball State +4.5

The Key: The Ball State Cardinals are a veteran team that is certainly improved under head coach Mike Neu this season. They brought back 17 starters and could make some noise in the MAC this year. They are 1-3, but all 3 losses came to quality opponents. They only lost by 10 at Indiana as 17.5-point dogs, by 10 at home to FAU, and by 11 as 19-point road dogs at NC State. Northern Illinois is also 1-3 in what is clearly a rebuilding year for first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. Their only win came against Illinois State, and they weren’t very competitive in road losses to Utah and Nebraska. They were competitive against Vanderbilt, but the Commodores are arguably the worst team in the SEC. Ball State is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games as a road dog of 7 points or less. NIU is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced zero turnovers over the last 3 years. Take Ball State.
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Cole Faxon
Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Virginia Tech vs Miami-FL
Play on: UNDER 47 -109

FREE PLAY on Virginia Tech/Miami-FL under 47 -109
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Jack Jones
Oct 05 '19, 7:30 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Tulsa vs SMU
Play on: SMU -12½ -110 at BetOnline

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: SMU -12.5

Oddsmakers have yet to catch up with how good the SMU Mustangs really are this season. They have opened 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS while covering the spread by a combined 70 points, or an average of 14 points per game. Now they are only laying 12.5 points at home to Tulsa Saturday in a game I expect them to win by two touchdowns or more.

SMU went on the road and beat TCU 41-38 as 7.5-point underdogs in Week 4. That’s a TCU team that has blasted everyone else they have faced thus far this season. If the Mustangs were going to have a letdown, it would have been last week. Instead, they handled their business with class, beating South Florida 48-21 as 7.5-point road favorites. Keep in mind they actually led that game 41-0 before calling off the dogs late.

Players are clearly buying in to what Sonny Dykes is preaching. This is a veteran team that returned 16 starters from last year, plus they added one of the best QB transfers in the country in Shane Buechele from Texas. Buechele is completing 69.4% of his passes for 1,385 yards with a 10-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt.

Buechele leads a high-powered SMU offense that is averaging 44.4 points, 511 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. They are averaging 15.1 points, 126 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents give up on average. SMU’s defense is also improved, holding opponents to 26.6 points, 363 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.

I do like this Tulsa team because they have a good defense. But they did give up 40 points to Oklahoma State. The problem with Tulsa is that they don’t have an offense. They are averaging just 21.5 points per game, 363 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season. They clearly do not have the firepower to hang with SMU in this one.

SMU also has a key advantage on defense up against Tulsa’s offense. SMU actually is No. 1 in the nation in sacks with 25 sacks already this season. They are bringing pressure and making life difficult on opposing offenses. Well, Tulsa ranks 122nd in the country in sacks allowed. The Golden Hurricane give up 4 sacks per game, and they were sacked 7 times by Wyoming last time out.

SMU is 10-2 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three seasons. The Mustangs are 8-1 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons. SMU should stay motivated due to losing 24-27 at Tulsa last year, so they want some revenge. Bet SMU Saturday.
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Rob Vinciletti
Oct 05 '19, 7:30 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Tulsa vs SMU
Play on: Tulsa +13 -105 at BetOnline

The College Football comp Play is on Tulsa plus the 13 points. The Golden Hurricane have covered the last 5 after rushing for less than 100 yards and 9 of 11 on the road vs a winning team. SMU is in the Top 25 for the first time and these teams are on a 1-8 spread run when making their first top 25 appearance. Also of note is a powerful system that plays against 5-0 team off a spread win by 10 or more vs a conference team off a win. SMU has failed to cover 10 of 12 as a home favorite of 10 or more and the last 4 after playing South Florida. The Dog in this series has covered 13 of 16. Take Tulsa. On Saturday we have a Huge TIER 1 Executive level blowout going as well as our 100% SEC Game of the Year with a system that dates to 1986. We have a Pair of BIG 10 Power systems and the 23-0 College Total of the Month. We will also have more MLB Playoff Power systems. . For the free play its golden contender taking the points with the Golden Hurricanes of Tulsa +13. Rob V- GC Sports
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Dustin Hawkins
Oct 05 '19, 8:00 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Pittsburgh vs Duke
Play on: Duke -5 -110 at 1BetVegas

1 Dimer on Duke -5 -110
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Info Plays
Oct 05 '19, 8:00 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Pittsburgh vs Duke
Play on: UNDER 48½ -109

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Pittsburgh vs Duke under 48½ -109
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Ray Monohan
Oct 05 '19, 10:30 PM in 15h
NCAA-F | Washington vs Stanford
Play on: UNDER 52 -110

UNDER 52

Being that I'm a Pac 12 honk I'm always prone to picking a Pac 12 game whenever I find myself looking for a 5* free play to share with customers on College football Saturday's! We have a nice matchup on Saturday night when the Washington Huskies visit the Stanford Cardinal. The Huskies are -16.5-point favorites and the over-under is set at 52. The game OPENED with UW a -13pt favorite and the O/U was at 50. The Dawgs come into this one (4-1), and are winners of 3 straight by double-digits. They grabbed a nice 28-14 win over rival USC last week. Stanford on the other hand just can't right the ship this year. At one point they lost three straight. All by double digits to USC, UCF and Oregon. They did take down the Beavers last week.

They key for me in this matchup are the two teams' rushing attacks and defense. UW can really road grade. Salvon Ahmed had 157 yards last week and the Dawgs love to keep their offense balanced. As for the Stanford Cardinal, their senior RB Cameron Scarlett (413 rushing yards) hasn't posted a 100-yard game this season but has topped 90 three times. Washington averages 190 RUSH yards per game, and Stanford averages 115 RUSH yards per game, and all this running helps with clock management and moving the time along.

Washington hasn't won in Stanford since 2007, and the last time these two teams played at Stanford - Stanford won 30-22 in 2017. Washington notched a 27-23 home win last season and that's the type of game and score I'm expecting Saturday. Some trends to consider. Under is 7-3 in Stanford's last 10 home games and it's 45-21 in Stanford's last 66 games in October. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games against an opponent in the Pacific 12 conference, and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 19 games.

If the Stanford defense can buckle down and not allow the big play that Washington loves to go for, they will have UW on edge all night long. If the Huskies are going to stay close to Oregon in the Pac-12 North, they'll need to figure out a way to win in Stanford.

I'm on the UNDER 52.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* Free NCAA Football O/U Play
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John Martin
Oct 05 '19, 10:30 PM in 15h
NCAA-F | Washington vs Stanford
Play on: Stanford +16½ -110 at Mirage

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Stanford +16.5

The Washington Huskies are laying too many points here at Stanford. This is the same Washington team that was upset by California as 13-point home favorites. They only beat USC by 14 at home in a game that was closer than the final score showed. Sure, they thumped BYU on the road, but that was a Cougars team coming off back-to-back overtime games and was simply out of gas. Stanford is a prideful team and will relish this opportunity to knock off a ranked Washington team. It’s the largest home underdog role for the Cardinal in 11 years. And Stanford has only failed to cover the spread once as a home underdog in the last 11 years. The Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five against a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Huskies. Give me Stanford.
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Posted : October 5, 2019 8:48 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57828
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Mike Wynn

Free Play: Ohio -3½ Over Buffalo
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, October 5, 2019

10/05 12:30 PM PT / 3:30 PM ET

CF (385) AUBURN VS (386) FLORIDA

Take: (385) AUBURN
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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: UTSA +2 over UTEP
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Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Bowling Green/Notre Dame under 63 1/2
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Roz Wins

Roz's SATURDAY, October 5, 2019 Free Pick

10/05 07:30 PM Take : (397) BOISE STATE -24
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Atlantic Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Central Michigan + 6
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#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Northern Illinois Huskies - 4 1/2
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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: the Wisconsin Badgers -35 over Kent St
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play Saturday, October 5, 2019

10/05 01:00 PM CF (315) NORTH CAROLINA VS (316) GEORGIA TECH

Take : North Carolina
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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Saturday Selection Is

AUBURN -2½
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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Saturday : MARSHALL -4 over Middle Tenn St
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Hawkeye Sports

Early Saturday's Free Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves - 7
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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Army +2'
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Arthur Ralph

FREE play SAT West VIG + 11 1/2
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Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Saturday: ARKANSAS ST -6½ over Georgia St
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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: Buffalo Bulls + 3 1/2
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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Saturday: BAYLOR -1 over Kansas St
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John Anthony Sports

SATURDAY Free Selection:

TB RAYS
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Paul Leiner

Three CFB picks 10/5

100* Penn State -28
100* Marshall -4
100* Over 63.5 SMU/Tulsa
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Posted : October 5, 2019 10:26 am
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