Tuesday 10/1/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, & MBL games.
Stephen Oh
MILWAUKEE +160
MILWAUKEE @ WASHINGTON | 10/01 | 8:08 PM EDT
My model says the Brewers win the Wild Card game almost 50 percent of the time, so you're getting good value with Milwaukee at this underdog price. I realize the Brewers have a daunting task facing the Washington pitching staff, but Milwaukee overcame more (namely the loss of Christian Yelich) just to get to this point, winning 18 of 20 games down the stretch. The Brewers were 18-4 when Brandon Woodruff pitched during the season. I'm rolling the dice with Milwaukee.
161-134 LAST 295 MLB SIDES | +2218
13-10 IN LAST 23 MIL ML PICKS | +314
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Pythagorean pick:
1* Star Straight Bet: Washington Nationals - This is a straight bet, NOT a series bet. If the Nationals lose today, then there is no possible {B** bet involved tomorrow.
All the best,
The Champ Team
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Dave Essler
3* Mil -1.5 RL
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Brooklyn Bookie Sniper
GOY Team total
*50 Washington mystics 1 Quarter team over 23
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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Milw Brewers+1.5(RL) -135
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ELITE SPORTS PICKS
Brewers/Nats Under 7.5
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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Brewers/Nats Under 7.5
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Jack Winningham
Milwaukee +167
October 1st, 2019 NL WILD CARD
Let’s start by being honest – something most gambling salespeople won’t be. Normally when I am betting baseball, as well as ANY sport, I’m looking for mis-matches. Predicting the outcome of a baseball playoff SERIES is tough enough. Bring it down to a single game – with two top teams? It’s that much tougher. In the regular season, with up to 15 games to select, I would NEVER touch this game. EVER. PERIOD. But, we no longer have power teams facing dogs. We have power vs power. So looking at trends and pitching is where I’m going to be making my play.
Many people are talking about how the Nationals at home are ‘a lock’. Really now? Let’s actually look at the NL Wild Card since the current One-Game format was installed in 2012. OH! What do ya know? The home team has LOST 5 times out of the 7 Wild Card teams played. So much for home field advantage (which BTW hasn’t ever seemed to help the Nats in the past).
So we are down to the most important area a baseball handicapper can zero in on – STARTING PITCHING. I’m going to submit to you that the Nationals are making a mistake by starting Max Scherzer in this game tonight. Max is a great pitcher – one of the best of this era – and he’s a FIERCE competitor. But tonight, he’s not the best SP on the Nationals. That would be Stephen Strasburg. Why? Ever since Scherzer has returned from his injury (Back AND Shoulder issues), he has not been the same pitcher. Although his strikeout to walk ratio is still excellent, his velocity is down. And that is showing in crucial areas, such as ERA. And Scherzer’s bulldog mentality could very well be working against him. Do you REALLY THINK if his shoulder is bothering him he’s gonna own up to it and risk not being able to pitch? If you know this guy at all, you know he’s gonna grind through the pain. But enough of my nickel and dime guess work – let’s look at some NUMBERS and compare Scherzer and Strasburg over the last 60 and 30 days.
I have my own way of grading pitchers – and it’s too much to go into here today – so you’ll either accept my ranking or you won’t. But the select numbers I’m sharing won’t and cannot lie. Over the last 60 days, I have Strasburg ranked as my #7 overall pitcher – OVERALL – in MLB. Max? I have him at #52. Here are some stats to consider over those 60 days:
Strasburg: ERA 3.42 / Strikeouts 83 / Walks 22 / Quality Starts 8 / Innings Pitched 68.1
Scherzer: ERA 4.74 / Strikeouts 54 / Walks 8 / Quality Starts 1 / Innings Pitched 38
Now, some may say those stats are skewed because Max didn’t pitch well right after he returned from the Injured List. Okay – let’s compare the last 30 days:
Strasburg: ERA 2.40 / Strikeouts 36 / Walks 13 / Quality Starts 4 / Innings Pitched 30
Scherzer: ERA 5.16 / Strikeouts 43 / Walks 6 / Quality Starts 1 / Innings Pitched 29.2
Max is striking more guys out. But he’s not giving his team quality starts, and he’s not keeping guys from crossing home plate. With Scherzer starting, like it or not, the Nats are going to likely give up a few more runs than they would with Strasburg, and that means a quicker trip to their weakest area – the bullpen.
Scherzer may have better numbers vs the Brewers – but since his return, the best SP on Washington and the SP that gives them the best chance of winning – is Strasburg. And he isn’t pitching.
As for the Brewers – there’s not much to say. Their pitching is way more unpredictable tonight. Woodruff isn’t going to be in there long, and they are taking the bullpen approach with a “Next Arm Up” mentality to this game. I NEVER bet on teams using the ‘Opener’ in the regular season, but then again as I already stated, I’d never bet this game in the first place in the regular season. But tonight, it’s the only game on the docket.
If I rated games from 1 to 5 stars, I’d give this one a single star. And I’d put it on Milwaukee. For the reasons I’ve already listed. I’d bet differently if Strasburg was on the hill, but he’s not. The money line on this game also makes the Brewers the better play. At -180, Washington isn’t the value pick.
Examine your bankroll, and place a small bet on Milwaukee +167 (current line at BetOnline.ag)
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PRIME TIME
4* Washington Nationals
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Jim Feist
MLB
3* #912 Washington -175
Bob Balfe
MLB
8:05 PM EST
Rotation #911-912
Nationals -175 over Brewers
Scherzer/Woodruff
Momentum and home field means a lot in pro sports. The Brewers were red hot, but with a chance to win the division cooled off big time. It’s hard to crank things back up in a one game series on the road. Max Scherzer has not been 100% percent over the second half of the season and typically I wouldn’t trust the Nationals Bullpen, but they will be using starters to get key outs tonight as everything rides on this game. Both teams are very young so nothing would shock me here, but Milwaukee was not a good road team and Christian Yelich being out is going to catch up with them. I don’t like playing spreads this high so you can scale down on your average wager tonight and maybe go 75% of what you usually wager to limit any juice damage from a potential loss. Take the Nationals.
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Bobby Valentino
50 DIME
Wild Card Dog
Nats RL
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Chris Jodan
Second-Ever BLANK CHECK
MLB Game of the Year
Wild Card Dog - Nats RL
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Miller locks
8:08 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Washington nationals
pick: Milwaukee brewers (+157)
risk: 11 units
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TONY FINN
NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD CASH
Game: (911) Milwaukee Brewers at (912) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Oct 1 2019 8:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -163
View Analysis
PLAY: Washington Nationals -163 (good to -180)
4% confidence rating
LIST PITCHERS: Woodruff and Scherzer
The difference between the regular season and postseason play is large. The gaff between starting pitchers, bullpens, and lineups are many times smaller than small and difficult to access after a September stats that included the expanded roster.
The difference in the talent between the Brewers and the Nats, however, is large. If Christian Yelich were healthy and swinging a bat for the Crew then the Brewers would be close if not even to the Nationals lineup. However, Yelich isn't active and won't be a part of the postseason action.
The Nats pitching, starters, easily trump anything that Milwaukee can toss to the mound. And while Washington has issues with the bullpen unless the Nats have a significant lead in the seventh inning it is unlikely that the pen that was used during the 162 game reg season won't see the mound in this wild card contest.
Mad Max will take the mound in the first inning and if efficient will pitching into the seven or eighth innings. If necessary, late in this wild card contest, the most likely scenario is that Patrick Corbin will close the game out. And with the win the Nats will begin to prepare for the Dodgers with scheduled Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin working Games 1 and 2 in Dodger Stadium.
The run of success that the Brewers experienced in the final month of the season, winning 18 of 20 before losing two in Colorado, came against non-playoff contenders and clubs that were, in the most accurate term, in a I"don't care about anything but making my tee time" frame of mind. It isn't a stretch to label the Nats as the most likely of the wild card entrants to be playing in the final seven-game-series because of their pitching trio... and nothing else.
Woodruff missed nearly two months with an oblique injury and made only two appearances since his return. And the last week of maybe this and maybe that has not assisted him in gaining any form of consistency and flow. Woodruff pitched only four innings in total since his return from the IL. Throw everything you know about Woodruff out the window. He is pitching in front of the least talented bullpen and starting rotation of those playing in October of either league with St Louis a close second to that of Milwaukee.
It wasn't long ago that skipper Craig Counsell said the club didn't know if Woodruff would start or pitch out of the pen when he came off the IL. And in truth that was a safe statement considering there is a lot of difference between any of the Brewers starters and relief corps.
Max Scherzer vs Woodruff is truely a mismatch in terms of capability and their best versus their worst, in terms of scenario.
Ignore Schertzers up and down September. Once it was apparent that the Nats were going to contend for a postseason slot the coaching staff kept him on the IL longer than he had to be. And when he did return his September was about nothing more than being 100 percent and stretched out for October.
Schertzer's Sept struggles were command related. His swing and miss stuff was still obviously alive and well.
Again, for the Brewers to be playing later this week and the Nats to be at home watching the playoffs is much longer than the minus-170 that the books are asking in this matchup.
The value is over-the-top Nats-heavy. Washington doesn't take the batters' box in the bottom of the ninth and it will not be a surprise if there is talk about a mercy rule before the top of the fifth innings arrives.
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4.5-STAR WASHINGTON over Milwaukee This may seem like a big line for essentially a one game playoff, but we actually see this line being tampered down because of that situation. In fact, we believe the line would be higher if this was the matchup in a regular season game. That may be accounting for Milwaukee having a willingness to go to their top bullpen arms early, but even that contains a lot of question marks. If Washington can get an early lead, which seems likely, we dont see Milwaukee having the guns to make a comeback here.
Washington comes into the postseason red hot, has winners of eight straight games. Playoff teams on 4+ game winning streaks are +14.8% playing on.
They closed the regular season Sunday with an 8-2 win over Cleveland. The Nationals are 10-0 SU since Sep 26, 2018 as a home favorite off a home game in which they won by 5+ runs.
Milwaukee meanwhile closed the regular season dropping three straight very important games. Playoff teams on 2+ game losing streaks are +16.6% playing against. Also, the Nationals are 10-0 SU since Aug 13, 2019 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games.
And Milwaukee was a sizable favorite in all three of those games including -175 Sunday, making this game a big line shift away from them. Teams that are at least +150 underdogs after being favored by at least -170 last game are +8.7% playing against.
The total in this game is just 7.5 and that sets up well for the home team, as well as the team having the NL CY Young contender on the hill. Home playoff teams in games where the total is no more than eight are +4.2% playing on.
The Nationals average total this season was 8.8 Home teams when the total is less than eight and the teams average total on the year is more than 8.5 are +2.3% playing on.
Max Scherzer goes having been a little shaky down the stretch with his results. But the stuff has absolutely been there as he has struck out 27 batters the past three outings. Milwaukees Brandon Woodruff has fanned just 10 his last three starts. Playoff starters who have at least 17 strikeouts over their past three starts, facing an opposing starter with less than 15 strikeouts over their last three starts are +13.6% playing on.
Woodruff likely wont be going too long in this game as a quasi-opener, but that will leave things to the Milwaukee bullpen that really struggled while getting swept by the Rockies. Teams that allowed at least three bullpen runs in each of their last three games are 1.8% playing against.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 6, Milwaukee 2
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Sorry guys just slow tonight ....if I find any thing I will post it. BOL