Thursday 10/11/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAFB, NFL & MLB games.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs Preview and Predictions
NCAAF Previews 9th October 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 10/09/2018
At this point, TCU is not giving its fans much reason for optimism. The scuffling Horned Frogs continue a three-game homestand Thursday when high-powered Texas Tech visits in a Big 12 showdown.
The Horned Frogs, who were ranked 14th before losing back-to-back games to No. 3 Ohio State and No. 14 Texas last month, narrowly escaped Iowa State their last time out. They needed a field goal with 37 seconds remaining to avoid a three-game skid, and now face a Red Raiders team that is playing well of late. Texas Tech won three straight games in September before giving No. 6 West Virginia all it could handle in a 42-34 defeat to close out the month. The Red Raiders played the second half of that contest without quarterback Alan Bowman (partially collapsed lung), who is expected to play Thursday.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: TCU -7
ABOUT TEXAS TECH (3-2, 1-1 Big 12): The Red Raiders lead the nation in total offense (591.4 yards per game) and rank eighth in scoring offense (48.4 points) entering Thursday's matchup. Bowman, a freshman who threw for 605 yards and five touchdowns against Houston on Sept. 15, is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,680 yards with a crisp 11-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The team has 18 rushing touchdowns, including seven from leading rusher Ta'Zhawn Henry, while Jett Duffey - who relieved Bowman at quarterback last week - is averaging 8.0 yards per carry on 21 attempts.
ABOUT TCU (3-2, 1-1): TCU failed to reach 300 total yards of offense against Iowa State and also committed three turnovers, but still prevailed thanks to a crisp 13-of-22 conversion rate on third and fourth downs, combined with a strong defensive effort. Shawn Robinson is expected to play after he suffered a shoulder injury late in the Cyclones game, although he has surpassed 200 yards passing only once in five games this season. Darius Anderson (316 yards) is the team's leading rusher despite a poor two-game stretch (24 carries for 57 yards) heading into Thursday.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Texas Tech WR Antoine Wesley leads the Big 12 with 124.2 receiving yards per game.
2. TCU has won three of the last four meetings, including a 27-3 rout a season ago.
3. The Horned Frogs are looking to win their ninth straight home game.
PREDICTION: TCU 39, Texas Tech 37
__________________
Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: COLORADO -105 over Florida
______________________
Totals4U
Thursday's Free Selection: Toronto Maple Leafs/Detroit Red Wings over 6 1/2
______________________
Jeff Allen Sports
Thursday's Free Selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs
______________________
#1 Sports
Thursday's Free Selection: Chicago Blackhawks + 160
______________________
Easy Money Sports
Lee's Thursday Free Selection Is
Montreal -125
Platinum Plays
Free Pick the Boston Bruins -165 over Edmonton
______________________
Hawkeye Sports
Thursday's Free Pick: Florida Panthers - 135
______________________
The Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Thursday: Take NASHVILLE -125 over Winnipeg
______________________
High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Thursday: Los Angeles Kings + 120
______________________
John Anthony Sports
Thursday's Free Selection: Edmonton Oilers + 155
Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Thursday: Take Montreal -125 over Los Angeles
______________________
Ray Chadwick
My comp play for Thursday will be to play Texas Tech and TCU to hold Under the posted price.
The Horned Frogs have been played their last pair of games Under the total, and 3 of their last 4 this season have also landed Under the posted price.
True, the Red Raiders have been involved in some high-scoring games, as 4 of their 5 played this year have landed Over the total, but based on recent series meetings played, I will look for Texas Tech to hold Under tonight in Fort Worth.
The last pair of meetings played between these in-state rivals have held Under the total, as have 3 of the last 5 overall.
It's a big total tonight, and I see the teams falling just shy of it.
Texas Tech-TCU to hold Under.
2* TEXAS TECH-TCU UNDER
______________________
Tommy Brunson
Both teams enter having played 3 of 5 games this year Under the total, but my money will be on the Over tonight at MetLife Stadium when the Giants host the Eagles for our 6th Thursday night game this season.
Big Blue found some of their AWOL offense on Sunday in Carolina, as they put up 31 points. That game landed Over, as have 2 of their last 3 on the year.
Series numbers between these division-rivals show 5 in a row, and 6 of the last 7 played having landed Over the total. So while Carson Wentz continues to round into form, and does so with Jay Ajayi now sidelined, I will play the series MO and look for their to perhaps be a turnover or two from Eli Manning who has had issues keeping the Philly defense from rattling his cage in season's past.
The last pair of Thursday night games, and 3 of the last 4 have played Over as well, as the short week tends to give the offense a little more of an advantage over the defense.
NFC East battle between Philly and New York to land Over under the Thursday lights.
3* PHILADELPHIA-N.Y. GIANTS OVER
______________________
Trace Adams
Thursday comp play is the Giants plus the points at home versus the Eagles.
Big Blue sports just one win straight up, but they have covered in 2 of their last 3 games in the underdog role. New York showed some fight on Sunday, but were done in by a 63-yard field goal in the closing seconds of their 33-31 loss at Carolina.
Meanwhile, it is clear that Philly is suffering from a "Super Bowl Hangover", as the Eagles play this one off of a home loss to Minnesota that dropped them to 1-6-1 against the spread their last 8 when listed as the chalk.
Philadelphia swept the season series last year, but New York covered both as the underdog.
It is a short week for both teams, and the Thursday night game has clearly favored the home team, as the host has won all 5 this year, with a 4-0-1 spread mark.
Let's go with the home team to make it a 5-0-1 spread run under the Thursday lights.
2* N.Y. GIANTS
______________________
Dustin Hawkins
Oct 11 '18, 7:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Sharks vs Rangers
Play on: Sharks -143
______________________
Sal Michaels
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: Georgia Southern -16½ -110
______________________
Cole Faxon
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: Texas State +18 -105
______________________
Bobby Conn
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Texas Tech vs TCU
Play on: TCU -7 -110
______________________
Mike Williams
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: Texas State +18 -105
Kenny Walker
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: Texas State +18 -110
______________________
Jimmy Boyd
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: OVER 49 -110
1* Free Pick on /Ga SouthernTexas State OVER 49
The books have set the total way too low for Thursday's Sun Belt action between Georgia Southern and Texas State. The Eagles come into this one off a season-high 48 points against South Alabama, as they continue to move the ball at will on the ground against lessor competition.
Georgia Southern is averaging 30.8 ppg and 275 rushing yards/game, despite scoring just 7-points and rushing for a mere 80 yards in a massive step-up game at Clemson. After watching the Bobcats give up 327 rushing yards in last week's game against Lafayette, they aren't slowing down this Eagles rushing attack.
The key here is that I believe Texas State is going to also have a lot of success offensively in this one. The Bobcats are averaging 28.8 ppg over their last 4 and 31.5 ppg at home. Georgia Southern's defense isn't as good as the 18.2 ppg they are allowing, as they have really benefited from playing 4 of their first 5 at home.
The other big key here is both defenses will be running on fumes, as both teams were in action this past Saturday, so each will have had just 4 days to recover for this contest.
OVER is 8-1 in Georgia Southern's last 9 vs a team with a losing record. It's also 6-0 in the Bobcats last 6 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 conference matchups. Take the OVER!
______________________
Info Plays
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: UNDER 50½ -109
______________________
Mark Wilson
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: Georgia Southern -16½ -110
______________________
Brandon Lee
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: Georgia Southern -17 -125 at betonline
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Georgia Southern -17)
I'll take my chances here with Georgia Southern covering the big number on the road against the Bobcats. The Eagles were clearly way undervalued coming into this season and that’s evident by the fact that they are sitting at 5-0 ATS with some big time covers.Three different times they have covered the number by at least 10 points.
Why are they so undervalued? Georgia Southern went just 2-10 last year and over the previous two seasons had gone a miserable 6-16-2 ATS. They have recommitted to running the option, are in year two under head coach Chad Lunsford and returned 18 starters.
As inflated as this number might seem, I actually think it’s no where close to enough. Texas State is one of the worst FBS teams in the country. They lost 35-7 to a Rutgers team that has since lost by 20+ points to Kansas, Buffalo and Illinois. They lost to a South Alabama team by 10, who not only lost to Georgia Southern by 35, but was annihilated 52-7 by Appalachian State. They also lost to a bad UTSA team that struggled to beat the likes of Rice and UTEP.
I think it’s really hard for the books to adjust the numbers on teams like Texas State who are so bad. Unlike a lot of teams who are going to get fired up for a weekday game, the Bobcats aren’t one of them, especially playing on just 4 days of rest against an option offense. Texas State is giving up almost 12 ppg more than what their opponent is averaging and scoring nearly 16 points less than what their opponents are allowing. Georgia Southern is going to score at will here. The Eagles are averaging 275 rushing yards/game and that’s with just 80 yards in their game against Clemson.
It’s also worth noting that Clemson is the only team to score more than 21 points against this Georgia Southern defense. I just think so much is going to have to go right for Texas State to make this game respectable, that it's worth the risk to lay the big number on the road. Give me the Eagles -17!
Steve Janus
Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Texas Tech vs TCU
Play on: TCU -7 -105 at Bovada
1* Free Sharp Play on TCU -7 -105
My money is on the TCU Horned Frogs to cover the touchdown spread at home against the Red Raiders. TCU has arguably the best defense in the Big 12 and have held this high-powered Texas Tech offense to a combined 27 points in the last two meetings. Making matters even worse for the Red Raiders is they are likely down to 3rd string QB, as their best signal caller, Alan Bowman is doubtful to play after suffering a collapsed lung in their last game vs West Virginia. TCU's offense has been held in check the last 3 weeks, but have played 3 really good defenses in Ohio St, Texas and ISU. Tech isn't as bad defensively as years past, but will be no match for the Horned Frogs on the road. Give me TCU -7!
______________________
Rocky Atkinson
Oct 11 '18, 8:20 PM in 7h
NFL | Eagles vs Giants
Play on: Giants +3 -115
______________________
Marc Lawrence
Oct 11 '18, 8:20 PM in 7h
NFL | Eagles vs Giants
Play on: OVER 44 -103
Play - Eagles-Giants OVER (Game 103-104).
Edges: Eagles: defending Super Bowl champions coming off consecutive losses are 15-9 OVER when facing division foes … Giants: 5-0 OVER last five games in this series … We recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.
______________________
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, October 11, 2018
10/11 04:30 PM PT / 7:30 PM ET
CF (107) GEORGIA SOUTHERN VS (108) TEXAS STATE
Take: OVER
______________________
Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play for Thursday, October 11, 2018
10/11 05:20 PM NFL (103) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS (104) NEW YORK GIANTS
Take : UNDER
Roz Wins
Roz's Thursday, October 11, 2018, Free Pick
10/11 04:30 PM CF (105) TEXAS TECH VS (106) TCU
Take : TCU
______________________