Football Newsletters Sept. 24 - 29

Red Sheet

ALABAMA 20 - Georgia 19 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 7½, and is now minus 6½. Admittedly, the 1-pt swing has moved the line from more to less than TD. Regardless, this one should be an all-out war. The Bulldogs rank #3 in the land, & deservedly so, with their defense holding SoCarolina & ArizonaSt to a combined 22 RYs the past 2 weeks. And theMoreno/Stafford combo keeps all opposing defenses honest. But the Tide has also posted a perfect 4-0 record, with impressive showings in all but one outing. A year ago, this one went into OT, & 'Bama is much improved this time around. The Bulldogs are still fairly green across their offensive line, & the Tide's 13th ranked "D" will do its part.RATING: ALABAMA 89

Western Michigan 34 - TEMPLE 14 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Western Michigan minus 3, and is now minus 3½. No questioning the improvement of the Owls, under Golden's tutelage. They've been a highly profitable play, covering 16 of their last 24, & had been 87½ pts ahead of the spread in their 13 games, previous to their trip to PennSt last week, a game in which they were totally exposed, not only by the 45-3 final, but more importantly by a 546-138 yd deficit. Not only that, but may have lost the services of their most important player, QB DiMichele, who went down with a shoulder injury. The Bronco "D" is cause for concern, of course, but without DiMichele, the dynamic has changed, & WM "O" purring all year.RATING: WESTERN MICHIGAN 89

TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 17, and is now minus 18½. Yes, we are aware of the fact that the Panthers have covered 2 of their 3 games to date, against no less than #18 Kansas, & #13 SouthFlorida. But the former cover was by a mere 6 pts, as the Panthers' only TD came as the result of a punt return, with Kansas calling off the dogs over the final 20 minutes. And the latter took place just a week ago, when they caught the SoFlorida off a brutal 37-34 game. Thus the draining element is squarely on the other foot in this contest, as FlaInt must now travel to take on a suddenly potent Rocketsquad (95 pts last 2 wks). Panthers have an 82-10 pt deficit on the road.RATING: TOLEDO 88

BALL STATE 51 - Kent State 20 - (12:00 Noon) -- Line opened at BallSt minus 18, and is now minus 17. They say that opposites attract, & this one certainly attracts us. Difficult to find 2 more different squads than these 2, with that Cardinal offense a thing of beauty, due to no less than 10 starters from last year's 30th ranked "O". The combo of QB Davis (10 TD passes so far), & RB Lewis (166 RYs in last week's 42-20 upset of Indiana) has them cooking. Check averaging 41.5 ppg thus far, with the Flashes allowing 48 & 44 pts in their 2 RGs to date, & in off being battered for 667 yds by Lafayette. Spread more than reasonable.RATING: BALL STATE 88

OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Troy 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at OkahomaSt minus 17, and is still minus 17. The Trojans of Troy continue to impress. They've made it to a couple of bowls over the past 4 seasons, with a 29-pt cover over Rice in the '06 New Orleans Bowl. So their credentials have been well established, with no greater proof than their brutal battle with OhioSt just last week, when they trailed the Buckeyes by just 14-10 in the 4th. But that game had to takes its toll, & now they run smack into one of the more unappreciated teams around. Cowboys have topped 40 pts 13 times since '06, & continue production.RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 88

CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.RATING: CAROLINA 89

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): CentMich, Cincinnati, Michigan, Maryland -- NFL: Chargers, Bills, Steelers

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Wisconsin (-3 to -6½); FresnoSt (-3½ to -7); Illinois (+16½ to +13½); SouthernCal (-21½ to -24); Louisville (-1½ to -3½); SanDiegoSt (-9 to -11); UAB (+26½ to +24½); Marshall (+17 to +15½); Duke (-5½ to -7); Stanford (+5 to +3½); Toledo
(-17 to -18½) - NFL: StLouis (+9½ to +8).
-
TIME CHANGES: NoIllinois/EastMich: now Noon; TexasA&M/Army: now 12:30; PennSt/ Illinois: now 8:10; Texas/Arkansas: now 3:30 -

KEY INJURIES: BallSt WR Love (Head) out; Cincy QB Grutza (neck) out; EastMich QB Schmitt (shoulder) questionable; MichiganSt RB Ringer (ankle) probable; NewMexico QB Porterie (ACL) out; NorthCarolina QB Yates (ankle) out; Northwestern RB Sutton (leg) probable; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) questionable; Oregon QB Costa (ACL) out; Oregon QB Masoli (head) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder) doubtful; TexasA&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; UTEP QBVittatoe (ankle) doubtful; WashingtonSt QB Lopina (shoulder) questionable.....

WINNING POINTS

****BEST BET

ALABAMA over GEORGIA* by 10
These Bulldogs provided us with a nice win near the top of these pages last week, as expected physically dominating an Arizona State team that is soft in the trenches. It was the type of showcase that was set up to make them look better than they really are, and they come away with plenty of public support, maintaining their #3 spot in the polls and looking like real championship contenders, with a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates in Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford to boot. But all is not well in Athens. That young OL was dominated so badly at South Carolina two weeks ago that Mark Richt made a slew of changes, and while it was more than enough to push around a Pac 10 opponent, it is an entirely different story against a physical Alabama defensive front. And while most road underdogs in this price range are viewed as to whether they can hang in the game or not, the Crimson Tide will be coming to win, and believing that they can. Despite the fact that they were only in the fourth game of the Nick Saban playbook they were every bit the match of Georgia in a 26-23 overtime defeat in Tuscaloosa LY, which tells us much about how even the talent is between these programs. Now the Tide are much better settled into their schemes, which means not just stopping people but getting out and making big plays as well (two interception returns for touchdowns,along with a punt return and a blocked punt for scores). Their 328-92 rushing dominance at Arkansas is most rare on the SEC road, and they will not go down easily, if at all. ALABAMA 24-14.

***BEST BET

FLORIDA* over MISSISSIPPI by 5
When the public looks at the scores that Florida has put up, a combined 112-19 over Hawaii, Miami F. and Tennessee, it is easy to buy into the notion that the Gators are rolling, and that Tim Tebow is making another serious run at the Heisman. That is not the case at all, however. And the flip side of this equation is that Ole Miss could just as easily be 4-0 as 2-2, with some bitter bounces of the ball leading to excruciating close losses to Wake Forest and Vanderbilt. So what does that leave us with here? A line that is projecting a gap that is much wider than the true realities between these teams. Florida benefitted from a +6 turnover ratio vs. Hawaii, getting two touchdowns on interception returns, and another on a punt return. Against Miami the Gators only led 9-3 into the fourth quarter, netting just 17 first downs and 345 yards. And at Knoxville on Saturday the totals were 16 first downs and 243 yards. The problem is that there is not a true lead RB to take the pressure off of Tebow (no Florida RB has more than nine carries in a game), and now that opposing defenses are learning how to handle this spread scheme yards are not coming easily. With the Rebels now healthy on defense (Greg Hardy should be able to play serious minutes this week), they have the depth to not get worn down in The Swamp, and with Jevan Snead having the versatile Dexter McCluster and a deep corps of WR’s to work with, this is also the biggest challenge that the Florida defense has faced this season. This is much closer than “they” think. FLORIDA 27-22.

**PREFERRED

Wake Forest* over Navy by 3
For Jim Grobe to take his roster and beat Bobby Bowden’s players three seasons in a row is a true sign of his special tactical acumen. It is also why we have cashed a lot of underdog tickets with him in the past. But this is an entirely different setting;while the Deacons can challenge just about anyone with X’s and O’s, having enough talent to get margins is another matter entirely. Grobe’s run is now 4-15 ATS as a favorite of more than a touchdown, and off of that draining win in Tallahassee this is another game in which they will do enough to win, and not much more. Note that there should also be no concern about the margin in last year’s 44-24 Deacon win at Annapolis – in that one the Midshipmen were -3 in turnovers, and could not handle WR Kevin Moore (now in the NFL), who burned them for 181 yards on 15 catches. Wake now lacks such a playmaker, which forces the offense to be methodical, and now that the Navy passing game is showing some spark (13.3 yards per pass the last two weeks), the Middies are even more difficult to defend. WAKE FOREST 29-26.

Tennessee over Auburn* by 5
The very best times to get behind class programs are those weeks in which no one else wants them. Phil Fulmer’s Volunteers rarely fall into that category, and as such it makes this one particularly solid, as we take a more than healthy number with athletes that have the talent to win the game outright, and also the mind-set.Tennessee will have fallen out of pubic favor off of ugly 30-6 result vs. Florida on Saturday, but the actually play was nowhere near what the scoreboard showed. A sound defense allowed only 16 first downs and 243 yards, and it is that unit that is the key here, against an Auburn offense that is still a work in progress. Through their first eight SEC quarters they have managed 17 points on their own (the other TD came on an interception return vs. L.S.U.), and while Tony Franklin’s schemes worked well at lower levels, spreading the field does not bring any special advantage against the class of athletes in this conference. It will take precision that they lack to make plays against the Vols. TENNESSEE 22-17.

Toledo* over Florida International by 25
Much like a convenience store worker on a graveyard shift, the Panthers have gone nothing but mail it in these “paycheck” games since Mario Cristobal took over. Except for a regional grudge match vs. Miami F. last year, his former employer, it has been an ugly 1-4 ATS in these games, with the only cover that 40-10 loss at Kansas to open the season when the oddsmakers were overly generous. Now we might find their biggest flat spot of all, coming one game after they opened their new stadium with a competitive game against South Florida, and with a Sun Belt opener at North Texas next week that they have a real chance to win. And of all trips that they could make, there are fewer that create lesser excitement for them than this venue. That brings the wrong mindset for this matchup, with the Rockets building plenty of momentum the past two weeks, especially in the way that they reached back for something extra under pressure against Fresno State, and they will relish the opportunity to erase the frustrations of finally losing early on Sunday morning. TOLEDO 42-17.

Iowa* over Northwestern by 17
Many times there are serious negatives that can be overlooked when a team wins a few games, and the current 4-0 record that sits next to Northwestern’s name is a classic example. The home slate has been a series of walkovers, and in the only road trip the Wildcats were badly out-played at Duke, winning the scoreboard despite trailing by 14 first downs and 144 yards of total offense. But perhaps the worst sign came last week. The problem in 2007 was the decision-making of C. J. Bacher, who threw 19 interceptions, including three in a 28-17 home loss to these Hawkeyes. And while Bacher is now a senior, what he did against Ohio last week was unforgiveable – he was intercepted four times vs. a mediocre defense, and he did it despite the fact that he was played with the lead throughout. When we see those mistakes it means bad news when heading to the road to face this class of defense, and now that the Hawkeyes have regained the offensive balance that was missing last year, they can control the ball throughout. IOWA 31-14.

*CLOSE CALLS

Tulane* over S.M.U. by 17 (Thursday)
We can not help but be impressed with the tremendous defensive performances of the Green Wave so far, although a short practice week for their first look at the June Jones playbook does create some new challenges. Of course, Jones can currently only use the most basic chapters of that book at this time. TULANE 34-17.

Southern Cal over Oregon State* by 26 (Thursday)
A young Beaver defensive front has had to grow up in a hurry, and based on the
Stanford/Penn State results, they are a long way from creating the kind of pressure
to throw the Trojans off stride. SOUTHERN CAL 35-9.

Louisville* over Connecticut by 1 (Friday)
Huskies have only one road win since becoming a full-fledged member of the Big East, and until we see some indication that their passing game has any rhythm, those wins may continue to be elusive, especially with the Cardinals bringing bitter memories of the officiating in last year’s loss. LOUISVILLE 24-23.

Western Michigan over Temple* by 3
When these two met at the end of the 2007 season it was a deceptively close 16-3 for Western on the scoreboard, as the Broncos led 438-146 in total offense. But the Owls were a gassed team at that juncture, which is not the case this time around. WESTERN MICHIGAN 23-20.

West Virginia* over Marshall by 22
One of the best ways for a coach to ease pressure from the home fans is to go a little harder to build a margin. Bill Stewart faces such pressure here. WEST VIRGINIA 38-16.

Pittsburgh over Syracuse* by 17
Dave Wannstedt wanted physical play in the trenches to be the forte of this program,but we have yet to see the Panthers win the line of scrimmage this season. If they can not do it here… PITTSBURGH 31-14.

Michigan State over Indiana* by 6
When these two met in East Lansing last year it was a 52-27 Spartan blowout keyed by a 368-22 domination on the ground. Current national statistics will show that the Hoosiers have improved in that category, but those numbers have little meaning based on the early schedule. MICHIGAN STATE 27-21.

Duke* over Virginia by 3
Guess who is favored after losing the last five meetings in the series in double figures? But on merit the Blue Devils get the call, and can also win the game, with the experience of Thaddeus Lewis a big edge over the untested Marc Verica.DUKE 23-20.

Miami F.* over North Carolina by 3
Tar Heel talent is good enough to win games but adding extra confidence continues to be elusive – when that 17-3 lead late in the third quarter got away vs.Virginia Tech, it dropped them to 1-5 the last two seasons in games decided by four points or less. But the Hurricanes lack that same polish. MIAMI F. 23-20.

L.S.U.* over Mississippi State by 21
With a bye week up next, Les Miles is allowed to exorcise some frustrations here,and much like the 45-0 rout at Starkville last year, Sylvester Croom just does not have the offensive personnel or designs to make anything happen against this defense. L.S.U. 27-6.

Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan* by 10
A good chance to put those “Huskies are under-rated” notions into play if the line remains fair – they may have been the better team on the field at Minnesota and Western Michigan both, but came away with a pair of tough L’s that keeps them under the radar screens. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 31-21.

Central Michigan* over Buffalo by 10
Chippewas have not played on their own turf since August, and may come away with a higher confidence level off of that near-miss at Purdue, instead of having a letdown. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31-21.

Cincinnati over Akron* by 13
That depleted Akron defensive front will have a tough time competing for four quarters given the talent gap here, especially with Tony Pike nearly flawless in his first start as Cincy QB, and the Bearcat program is developing to the point at which they could have a decent following for this trip, negating the home field advantage. CINCINNATI 30-17.

East Carolina* over Houston by 12
The Cougars bring a bitter revenge motive after suffering a 37-35 home loss last year in which they led by nine first downs and 155 yards of total offense, but in reality this is the fourth straight game on the road, with their September development severely curtailed. EAST CAROLINA 35-23.

Notre Dame* over Purdue by 1
The Fighting Irish continue to show no ability to run the ball, but Jimmy Clausen and some talented WR’s are starting to develop a rhythm. Against this soft defense,the passing game may be enough. NOTRE DAME 24-23.

Ohio State* over Minnesota by 24
It was a savvy move by Jim Tressel to have Terrelle Pryor go almost all the way vs.Troy State, in order to get him some real experience before conference play begins.Now it is league play, and yet he will be facing a weaker defense than last week.OHIO STATE 37-13.

Nebraska* over Virginia Tech by 3
We do not believe these Cornhuskers are nearly as good as the public perceptions (the scores and stats certainly do not match so far), but we will cross our fingers and actually hope that they win here, so that we can step in and lay a cheap price with Missouri on this field next week. NEBRASKA 24-21.

Washington* over Stanford by 4
With two prep weeks it is a “backs to the wall” game for Tyrone Willingham’s program, and we do remember their dominance on the scoreboard (27-9) and in the trenches (388-116 rushing) in last year’s matchup vs. the Cardinal. The problem is that Louis Rankin ran for 255 of those yards, and the Huskies have yet to find a replacement. WASHINGTON 28-24.

California* over Colorado State by 24
With two weeks to build up a level of frustration following that dismal showing at Maryland the Bears can cut it loose here, especially as they remember being seriously challenged by the Rams in Fort Collins last year (a 34-28 win required a +3 turnover margin). CALIFORNIA 41-17.

Wisconsin over Michigan* by 4
Although getting an early bye week can be a major plus for Rich Rodriguez in terms of getting his playbook installed, running up against this class of defense is something that the Wolverines are not ready for yet. WISCONSIN 20-16.

Clemson* over Maryland by 8
When we see that the young Clemson OL can not even free up C. J. Spiller and James Davis vs. South Carolina State, it means that we have to approach this offense much differently than the pre-season expectations.CLEMSON 27-19.

Fresno State over U.C.L.A.* 3
As bad as these Bruins are, we have to wonder if the nature of the early Bulldog schedule could have them a little drained at this point, especially after going deep into the night at Toledo. FRESNO STATE 23-20.

Bowling Green over Wyoming* by 6
After traveling to Boise two weeks ago there is nothing intimidating about this trip for the Falcons, who now step way down in class against a struggling Wyoming offense that has nearly given up as many touchdowns (two) as they have scored (three) in their three lined games. BOWLING GREEN 26-20.

Oregon over Washington State* by 24
Having been humbled by Boise State, there is not any fear now of the Ducks looking ahead to Southern Cal next week – they have some business to attend to.OREGON 41-17.

Oklahoma* over T.C.U. by 21
At another time we might have given this underdog a look, in a setting that can put them on the national map. But right now the BCS has three pieces to fit into two pegs (Southern Cal – Big 12 Champ – SEC Champ), and Bob Stoops has been around long enough to know that it means no letting up. OKLAHOMA 34-13.

South Carolina* over U.A.B. by 26
Steve Spurrier would like to get the kind of blowout win that builds the confidence his offense will need for much tougher challenges ahead. Neil Callaway just wants to get through this one without any injuries, before a home conference affair vs.Memphis on Thursday. SOUTH CAROLINA 38-12.

Texas A&M* over Army by 28
We used to like to back Army in trips to this state because they annually have so many players from Texas on their roster, but the switch to an option attack simply does not fit the personnel at hand. TEXAS A&M 40-12.

Ball State* over Kent State by 12
We rarely talk about a letdown spot when a team is heading into a conference game off of a non-league affair, but that win over Indiana on the road last week meant a lot to these Cardinals. BALL STATE 36-24.

South Florida over N. C. State* by 6
The beginning of Tom O’Brien’s rebuilding program officially began on Saturday,when Russell Wilson threw three TD passes without a single interception in that pressurized atmosphere vs. East Carolina. A nice building block, although the speed of this defense will cause him some issues. SOUTH FLORIDA 27-21.

Colorado over Florida State by 1 (Jacksonville)
After making the computers buzz with those big numbers vs. weak competition, it was the same old Florida State offense vs. Wake Forest, four home quarters without a touchdown. Still a “home” game here, but the Buffaloes bring more polish.COLORADO 21-20.

Central Florida over U.T.E.P.* by 3
Perhaps against this class of opponent, the Golden Knights can win with defense alone, as those young skill people need a lot of time to develop. U.C.F. 30-27.

Penn State* over Illinois by 15
Have to believe that films of last year’s loss at Champagne will have State breathing fire from the start here, after allowing a kickoff return for a TD, and turning the ball over three times inside the Illinois 30-yard line. And a young Illinois defense leaves the kind of holes that can be exploited. PENN STATE 35-20.

New Mexico over New Mexico State* by 2
The Lobos showed little acumen against an offense that spread the field and threw the ball around last week (Tulsa), and note that even in beating these Aggies by 10 at home LY they allowed 581 yards. NEW MEXICO 35-33.

San Diego State* over Idaho by 17
When you fade to the point at which Utah State runs off 28 straight points, which is what happened to these Vandals in the second half last week, it becomes strictly a play-against or pass situation. Pass, for now. SAN DIEGO STATE 37-20.

U.N.L.V.* over Nevada by 4
Back-to-back wins in overtime over teams from BCS conferences are finally bringing some momentum to Mike Sanford’s program, and it could also mean taking this in-state affair as seriously as their northern rivals annually do. U.N.L.V. 31-27.

San Jose State over Hawaii* by 5
Not easy to get a feel for the Rainbows right now – while they are indeed young and the scoreboards have been awful, they are also -9 in turnovers in their first two lined games. Off of a bye, perhaps we can expect better. SAN JOSE STATE 31-26.

Kentucky* over Western Kentucky by 20
Two weeks after having been scared by Middle Tennessee, we believe that Wildcats will have properly safeguarded against being embarrassed by this opponent. But just not enough punch to beat anyone easily. KENTUCKY 33-13.

Arkansas State over Memphis* by 3
Not much of a home field advantage in this one, with plenty of seats available and the Red Wolves having a short trip. And right now they simply look better.ARKANSAS STATE 30-27.

Oklahoma State* over Troy by 11
Cowboys will surely be simmering after seeing far too many times films of last year’s debacle vs. these Trojans on national television. But at the same time, that game does reflect balanced talent between the programs, which means nothing comes easily. OKLAHOMA STATE 35-24.

Kansas State* over Louisiana by 16
After seeing the Wildcats get gouged for 303 rushing yards vs. a Louisville team that lacks a ground game, it is not easy to get a margin here against the Cajuns,since that is the one strength that they do have. But where they are not strong, they are very weak. KANSAS STATE 40-24.

Rice* over North Texas by 18
It looks like the Owls might finally get a chance to return to campus for practice this week, bringing a sense of normalcy to a team that has had to work through some major distractions. RICE 45-27.

Texas* over Arkansas by 26
Moving this one back two weeks is only delaying the inevitable for Bobby Petrino’s Razorbacks, who look shockingly lost in their new schemes. TEXAS 42-16.

Florida Atlantic* over Middle Tennessee by 6 (Tuesday)
The Owls were drubbed 106-13 in their non-conference paycheck games, in a season in which it looked like they had a better chance to compete on paper. That means that Howard may have just been playing possum, a concept that we will explore carefully before kickoff. FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27-21.

Boise State* over Louisiana Tech by 18 (Wednesday)
As much as the blue turf usually gets respected when the television cameras are on, the Boise win at Oregon now forces the oddsmakers to go even further to balance the action. Perhaps too far. BOISE STATE 34-16.

WINNING POINTS

****BEST BET

San Francisco over *New Orleans by 14
San Francisco has a respectable defense and talent on offense.The important factor here is the 49ers now know how to maneuver their offensive talent.That makes them a dangerous foe against a crippled Saints defense that remains highly vulnerable through the air. Like him or not, Mike Martz is making a difference as San Francisco’s offensive coordinator.The 49ers’ offense is improving each game as the players, and new quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan, get more comfortable with Martz’s elaborate West Coast system. San Francisco has gained 365 and 370 yards, respectively, in their last two games facing a good defense (Seattle) and a bad one (Detroit).The Saints’ defense is closer to Detroit’s defense. Martz has said O’Sullivan is the best quarterback he’s ever coached.The 49ers have controlled the clock averaging 35 minutes in time of possession during this span.They have an elite runner, Frank Gore, to give them balance.This is a key because the potent Saints offense can’t score when they’re on the sidelines. Being on carpet also speeds up the 49ers’ offense. It’s particularly helpful to veteran wideout Isaac Bruce, who has lost a step but still knows how to get open.The Saints are without their best wide receiver, Marques Colston. Running back Deuce McAllister has yet to be a factor. Until McAllister proves he’s healthy enough to contribute, the Saints lack an inside ground attack.That proved costly last week in a two-point loss at Denver when the Saints couldn’t punch the ball in from the one-yard line near the end of the first half. By now defenses realize the Saints are gearing their offense almost entirely to Reggie Bush. The 49ers will be keying on Bush, who is not a heavy-duty back. San Francisco holds a huge edge in the kicking game. Joe Nedney is among the best place-kickers in the NFL. Saints kicker, Martin Gramatica, is struggling. SAN FRANCISCO 31-17.

***BEST BET

Buffalo over *St. Louis by 24
Looking to go 5-0 heading into their bye week, the Bills have lots of momentum. They had their scare last week at home, nearly losing to Oakland. So don’t look for the Bills to let up as they face the Rams, the NFL’s worst team. Buffalo is off to its first 3-0 start since 1992. On the opposite end are the Rams. How bad is St. Louis? The Rams are equal opportunity employers.They rank last both in offense and defense.They have been outscored by 87 points already in just three games for an average loss of 29 points per game.The Rams are 0-15 versus teams with a winning mark, 2- 13 ATS. Buffalo is expanding its offense with star left tackle Jason Peters rounding into shape after a lengthy holdout.Marshawn Lynch keeps getting better and second-year quarterback Trent Edwards is gaining more confidence resulting in a larger playbook.The Rams’ best pass rusher, defensive end Leonard Little, may not play because of a hamstring injury. The Bills have an aggressive defense with young talent.They also have arguably the top special teams units in football with dangerous kickoff and punt returners. Buffalo last visited St. Louis 13 years ago.The Bills are used to playing on artificial turf, though.The Rams offense no longer can carry their weak defense. In fact, their offense has gotten so weak that it now needs to be carried. Quarterback Marc Bulger is shell-shocked. He hasn’t had a 200-yard passing game this season. There are injuries at wide receiver and in the offensive line. Torry Holt no longer has his explosiveness and Steven Jackson hasn’t been able to do anything on the ground or out of the backfield. He’s rushed 50 times for 159 yards, a pedestrian 3.1 yard average. He’s still looking for his first touchdown of the season.Yes, it’s seems strange to lay a big number with Buffalo, especially when the Bills are on the road. But in this matchup, it’s justified. BUFFALO 33-9.

**PREFERRED

*Carolina over Atlanta by 17
The Falcons are improved and playing hard for first-year head coach Mike Smith. But the Falcons have not improved enough to the point where they can beat a good club on the road.Atlanta’s two victories have come against two very weak foes, Detroit and Kansas City, both at home. When the Falcons ventured away from the Georgia Dome, they were soundly smacked by division foe, Tampa Bay. This matchup is very similar. The Falcons are a turf team playing on grass against a well-coached, tough defensive club. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan couldn’t do anything at Tampa. Don’t look for him to fare any better in his second pro career away start. A rejuvenated Julius Peppers is going to make things miserable for him. Ryan has yet to exhibit accuracy on his medium-to-deep throws.The Falcons have been relying on running back Michael Turner and short passes. That’s not enough to get it down here. Steve Smith is back from suspension to provide the Panthers with a vertical threat. The Falcons’ secondary has been vulnerable all season. Luckily for them, they haven’t seen stellar quarterbacks. Jake Delhomme isn’t an elite quarterback, but he has two good running backs and Smith.That will be enough given the Falcons’ limitations on the road. CAROLINA 27-10.

*Tennessee over Minnesota by 13
Is it a fluke the Titans are 3-0 for the first time since ’99? Not really. The Titans remain under the radar screen because they don’t have any marquee stars.They do have defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, though. He’s a premier run-stuffer.The Vikings are trying to get by with Adrian Peterson and 37-year-old Gus Frerotte at quarterback after coach Brad Childress became the last person in the world to give up on Tarvaris Jackson. Peterson doesn’t have his full motor, however, because of a hamstring injury. Frerotte is an upgrade on Jackson, but that isn’t saying much.Frerotte was 1-2 with the Rams last season, throwing six touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He is 38- 44-1 as an NFL-starter.The Titans don’t exactly have a youngster behind center either with Kerry Collins. The Titans have two good runners, LenDale White and rookie Chris Johnson, to keep defenses from keying on Collins, who happens to be ranked third among active quarterbacks in passing yards behind Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. Collins has been managing the Titans well since Vince Young was injured. The Vikings are poorlycoached and playing on grass, which reduces the quickness of their pass rushers.The Titans have enough edges to cover a short number.TENNESSEE 26-13.

CLOSE CALLS

Denver over *Kansas City by 13
Calling Len Dawson.The Chiefs sure could use their old quarterback – even at age 73. Kansas City has yet to adequately replace Trent Green.The Chiefs are averaging 10.6 points. Herm Edwards has been a disaster of a coach. The Chiefs have dropped a franchise-record 12 consecutive games.They’ve failed to cover the spread in their past five home contests.After seeing Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell and Matt Ryan, the Chiefs now draw a red-hot JayCutler.The Broncos have lost four of their past five at Arrowhead Stadium.But they should prevail here if Brandon Marshall can stop getting arrested.DENVER 30-17.

*Cincinnati over Cleveland by 7
Call it the Crisis Bowl. Neither team has won yet. The Bengals may have ended their offensive slump scored 23 points and gaining 347 yards on the road last week versus the Giants. Carson Palmer should fare better after having faced tough defenses in Baltimore,Tennessee in extreme wind conditions and the Giants. It’s difficult, though, to ever place any trust in the undisciplined Bengals although they have defeated Cleveland the past four times at home.The Browns have lost their confidence and may be making a quarterback switch from Derek Anderson to Brady Quinn, the people’s choice. CINCINNATI 20-13.

*Jacksonville over Houston by 6
The Texans usually play the Jaguars strong, owning a 7-5 lifetime mark against them.This includes a 6-2 ATS record during the past four seasons. Jacksonville also is coming off a huge last-second road victory against division rival Indianapolis. Still, this isn’t a good spot either for Houston. Because of Hurricane Ike, the Texans are opening the season playing three straight road games,the first time that’s happened in the league since 1991. The Texans have only been able to average 275 yards against a couple of other tough defenses, Pittsburgh and Tennessee, and the team may be losing confidence in quarterback Matt Schaub. JACKSONVILLE 23-17.

*New York Jets over Arizona by 7
New York is on a short week following its Monday night road game against San Diego.Yet the spot is much worse for Arizona.The Cardinals are staying out East after losing Sunday to the Redskins.Arizona has dropped 58 of its past 74 road contests.The Cards have failed to cover in seven of their last eight versus AFC opponents. Brett Favre gets all the attention, but Kurt Warner is another old warrior who has been playing surprising well with just one turnover this season. He’s averaging around 300 yards passing during his last nine starts.Arizona has scored 20 or more points in 10 of its last 11 games. NY JETS 34-27.

Green Bay over *Tampa Bay by 2
Under Mike McCarthy, the Packers have become a tough road foe.They are 12-5 SU away from Lambeau Field behind McCarthy, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road matchups.The Packers have a solid defense and a diversified offense. Tampa Bay has a solid defense, too, but no downfield passing attack. Don’t be fooled by Brian Griese passing for more than 400 yards last week. He’s strictly a check-off type of quarterback. He couldn’t unseat Rex Grossman at Chicago. Griese also could be without his lone deep threat, Joey Galloway (check status). He didn’t play last week because of a foot injury.GREEN BAY 21-19.

San Diego over *Oakland by 4
“Just win, baby” has long been replaced as the Raiders’ motto by “Just be dysfunctional,baby.”Lane Kiffin may actually be looking forward to Al Davis firing him. Now the Raiders face a team that has defeated them nine straight times, covering eight of the nine, by a victory margin of nearly 16 points a game. Temper your enthusiasm, though, for San Diego. The Chargers entered their Monday night game against the Jets yielding 32.5 points. San Diego’s pass rush isn’t the same without injured Shawne Merriman, leaving its cornerbacks exposed. SAN DIEGO 30-26.

*Dallas over Washington by 7
The Cowboys have more weapons than Barack Obama has campaign spending money. But Washington could keep this close as its offense is coming around after a slow opener picking up new coach Jim Zorn’s West Coast schemes.Clinton Portis is running well again. Dallas’ run defense isn’t as good missing injured hard-hitting safety Roy Williams. This is a fierce rivalry that the Redskins may be taking more serious than Dallas, which is off a Monday night home game versus Philadelphia and a Sunday night road game against Green Bay.Now the Cowboys have to wheel back to face this traditional foe. DALLAS 28-21.

*Chicago over Philadelphia by 2
The Eagles are going to be in trouble if Pro Bowl running back Brian Westbrook is sidelined because of an ankle injury suffered last Sunday.The Bears defense remains fierce and can tee off on Donovan McNabb if there’s no threat of a ground attack.The Eagles remain without top wideout Kevin Curtis and tight end L.J. Smith has been a non-factor up to this point.The Bears, on the other hand, need Devin Hester (check status), who was out last week with bruised ribs. Fearing Philadelphia’s blitzes, the Bears probably will look to be very conservative. CHICAGO 19-17.

*Pittsburgh over Baltimore by 14 (Monday)
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (check status) is taking a heavy pounding in every game as his offensive line gets its act together. Baltimore’s defense is playing well again, but this is a real tough venue and spot for Ravens’ rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.The Ravens’ offensive line also is in a state of transition and could have problems handling the crowd noise and Pittsburgh’s defensive team speed. The Steelers’ 3-4 defense is tough to run on. So Flacco will need to make plays.The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine away games, 1-4 ATS as a road ‘dog. PITTSBURGH 27-13.

OVER/UNDER

**OVER: San Diego at Oakland –Without their edge pass rushers, San Diego’s defense is much weaker. The Raiders have gone ‘over’ in eight of their last 10.

UNDER: Cleveland at Cincinnati – The Bengals have gone ‘under’ in seven of their last nine, while Browns quarterback Derek Anderson is averaging 135 yards passing and has thrown five interceptions and just two touchdowns.

OVER: Arizona at NY Jets – The Cardinals have gone ‘over’ 72 percent during their last 25 games thanks to an aggressive downfield passing attack and suspect defense.

LOGICAL APPROACH

2008 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HAWAII - 3 over San Jose State- After stepping up in class and being blown out by Florida and Oregon State - both on the road - Hawaii opens WAC play against San Jose State, a team they have had great success against over the years. Hawaii is clearly down from last season when they were unbeaten until crushed by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. They had a Bye last week and will be fresh for this contest against a team coach by ex-Hawaii coach Dick Tomey. San Jose has lost79 straight to Hawaii. Their last 4 trips to the islands have resulted in Hawaii wins by 37, 18, 9 and 24 points. This is still an intimidating place to play and Hawaii's rough experience against tougher teams will have them primed for this contest in which they still have the superior athletes. Hawaii wins 41-24.

Other Featured College Selections

Virginia + 7 over DUKE- It's clear that the fortunes of both programs are changing as Duke is improved under first season coach Cutcliffe while Virginia is in decline after winning so many close games last season that could easily have turned their 9-4 season into a losing campaign had some of those close games gone the other way. Still, Virginia has the much greater talent and is an underdog in this series for the first time since 1988 (when the Cavs did cover). Virginia lost one sided games to USC and Uconn, sandwiched around a win over I-AA/FCS Richmond. Duke has beaten I-AA/FCS James Madison and Navy sandwiched around a home loss to Northwestern. This is the ACC opener for both teams and although Duke seemingly enjoys a huge statistical edge, the quality of competition must be considered. Duke has significant concerns on defense that the heretofore struggling Virginia offense should exploit. Both teams are off of Byes and while it is acknowledged that Duke is not the patsy of seasons past, Virginia has won the last 8 games in the annual series, 7 of which have been by double digits. This one is closer but Virginia wins again, 23-17.

MICHIGAN + 6 ½ over Wisconsin- Both teams are off of Bye weeks as they open Big 10 play. Michigan has clearly struggled in dropping 2 of their first 3 games under new coach Rodriguez, although the defense has played well, especially against the run. Wisconsin is unbeaten and is favored over Michigan for the first time in at least 30 years! And they are not just favored, but favored in Ann Arbor. Michigan still has some very talented athletes and this is the Big House where Michigan is rarely an underdog. In fact, Michigan has been a home underdog just 4 times in the past decade and 2 of those were against arch rival Ohio State. In their other two home underdog games, the Wolverines upset Penn State twice - last season and in 1998. UM is playing with revenge for a 37-21 loss at Wisconsin last season. Wisky has beaten Michigan twice in the past 3 seasons, both at home. Asking Wisconsin to upset Michigan at the Big House is not that far fetched given the fortunes of both teams this season. But EXPECTING them to do so by making them favorites, especially close to a TD, IS something of a stretch. This game goes to the wire. Wisconsin wins but by just 23-20.

Nevada Reno + 4 over UNLV- UNLV seems to have turned the corner for beleaguered coach Mike Sanford who had won just 2 games in each of his first 3 seasons. Already the Rebels are 3-1 following a pair of wins over BCS teams Arizona State and Iowa State. Both wins were by 3 points in overtime and the games were draining experiences, especially the Iowa State win in which UNLV led 21-0 at the half and then allowed ISU to tie the game at the end of regulation following a 98 yard drive. Nevada is rested for this annual rivalry game in which the Wolfpack have won the last 3. Nevada has played a very tough early schedule, losing one sided contests to a pair of Top Ten teams, Texas Tech and Missouri which followed a one sided win over I-AA/FCS Grambling to open the season. The talent gap between the teams has narrowed and UNLV is not making the mistakes that have doomed them in recent seasons. Still, this is a well coached Nevada team that places great emphasis on beating their downstate rival. Nevada coach Ault has a history of success in his multiple tenures and relishes being the underdog this season. Nevada wins 28-24.

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA - 7 over Atlanta-It's been a nice start for Atlanta in what is a season of rebuilding and their two wins in three games has to give the young Falcons great confidence. But those wins came against inept Detroit and Kansas City and both were at home. Rookie QB Ryan struggled in his lone road start at Tampa Bay. Carolina is a legitimate Playoff caliber team and should find Atlanta's defense much more yielding than the Minnesota defense they faced last week. The Panthers will also be focused and motivated to atone for back to back losses on this field to Atlanta the past two seasons. The offense should continue to improve with WR Smith back for a second straight week following his suspension. Carolina has faced a much tougher early schedule and has the much better defense. Look for that defense to confuse the Falcons and their rookie QB, focusing on taking away Atlanta's fine running game and forcing QB Ryan into mistakes. Carolina wins 31-13.

Other Featured NFL Selections:

KANSAS CITY + 9 over Denver-Denver is unbeaten through three games largely sue to their offense. In their last two games against San Diego and New Orleans, the defense was unable to protect huge early leads and that nearly cost them two wins. Kansas City is one of the weakest teams in the league and unlikely to show much improvement in the short term, turning to untested QB Tyler Thigpen to lead the offense. But the Chiefs have always enjoyed a strong home field and have defeated the Broncos in 7 of their last 9 meetings on this field.Denver has come close to losing each of their last two games - both at home - but the wins have served to inflate the line here. KC does have problems on offense although the running game did emerge last week. Denver is allowing 425 yards per game and now plays in a very hostile environment. This is the NFL and an outright upset would not be a shock. Still, Denver finds a way to win yet another close game. Denver wins but by just 20-17.

NEW ORLEANS - 6 over San Francisco- The 49ers have won two in a row while the Saints have dropped their last two. San Francisco's offense seems much improved under offensive coordinator Mike Martz and gets to face another team with defensive deficiencies. But the Saints are dropping in class after starting the season against a pair of Playoff teams from last season and much improved Denver. This becomes a game of need for New Orleans to avoid a 1-3 start and they have the more mature offense and a defense that should match up well against the 49ers' offense. The teams are meeting for a third straight season and the Saints have won the last two meetings by nearly identical 31-10 and 34-10 scores. San Francisco has narrowed the gap and the Saints have been hit by injuries to their receiving corps including TE Shockey. But the Saints have depth on offense and an improving defense and catch the 49ers still in the early stages of learning the Martz offense. The familiarity that existed last week for the 49ers against Detroit does not exist here. New Orleans puts forth their best effort of the early season this week. New Orleans wins 34-17.

Washington + 11 ½ over DALLAS- This is another long time bitter Divisional rivalry. Washington has fared well against the Cowboys of late, covering 5 of the last 6 meetings with 4 straight up wins. This is only the third time in the past decade that there's been a double digit point spread between these teams. The Underdog has covered the two previous such games and Washington''s new offense is steadily showing improvement. It's hard to find fault with anything Dallas has done this season in starting 3-0 although there are still some concerns on defense. Washington is a physical team and that could work to wear down the Cowboys in the second half, meaning the 'Skins could put points on the board when trailing by a couple of touchdowns. But much more likely is a competitively played game from the start, with the running game of Washington keeping the Dallas defense on the field for long stretches. The offense is gaining more confidence each week and the series history suggests this gets decided late. Dallas wins but by just 27-20.

Marc Lawrence PLAYBOOK

PRO FOOTBALL

4* BEST BET

Cleveland over CINCINNATI by 7
division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7 points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offi ng and the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look for Romeo to come calling today.

3* BEST BET

Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard fi eld goal at the buzzer lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their fi rst win of the campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses. We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing.No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off an away game. Take Tex.

NY JETS over Arizona by 6
Flyboys return to the Apple off Monday night’s skirmish in San Diego while the Cardinals look to regroup after Sunday’s hard-fought, fi rst loss of the season at Washington. It won’t be easy considering Zona’s 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS mark against the AFC East. Couple that with the fact that Brett Favre is 8-1 as a nondivision favorite after Monday nights and 3-1 SU and ATS in his career against the Cardinals. We won’t fade those kind of numbers

NEW ORLEANS over San Francisco by 3
One team’s got it and the other doesn’t. Defense, that is. And if you’re Frisco head coach Mike Nolan you’re banking heavily on it as the Saints have managed to post 30 or more points in each if its last four meetings in this series (all wins). Our friendly database tells us that favorites or dogs of 1 or less points off backto- back losses are 0-7-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when taking on a foe off back-to-back wins. The loss of TE Jeremy Shockey certainly doesn’t help matters. The bottom line is it’s hard to pass on a touchdown dog with 100 yards the better defense. We won’t.

CAROLINA over Atlanta by 3
Panthers let us down in a major way last week when, after jumping out to 10-0 lead at Minnesota, they then no-showed the fi nal 40 minutes of the game. With that we have no choice but to fade them in their non-desirable role as chalk. That’s confi rmed by John Fox’s 3-9 ATS record as a division home favorite, including 1-5 when laying more than 6 points. In somewhat of a surprise, the rebuilding Falcons will look to improve to 3-1 (or better) through the fi rst four games of the season for the 4th time in the last fi ve years with a win here today. Averaging 55 yards more than they allow per game against an opponent that surrenders 23 YPG more than it gains, another 3-1 start is a distinct possibility.You know what to do.

TENNESSEE over Minnesota by 1
From a technical standpoint this game is a tough call. That’s because 3-0 teams at home, favored by less than 7 points, are an eye-popping 12-1 ATS in Game Four. On the fl ip side, dogs with a 1-2 record off a win are 14-1-2 ATS when facing a foe off back-to-back wins. Whew! What to do? The feeling here is the 1-2 dog is a lot hungrier than the 3-0 favorite. The decision-maker comes from the fact that Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or more points off a win against an opponent off a win of less than 10 points.Take three or leave it.

TAMPA BAY over Green Bay by 1
Battle of the Bays finds Tampa back home off an exhilarating 3-point OT win over Chicago while Green Bay takes to the road off Monday night’s SU and ATS loss to the Cowboys. That loss snapped a 6-0 ATS win skein in September for the Pack. Given the Packers’ 5-0 ATS log as dogs of 3 or more points against the NFC South, we’ll opt for the points. If the line drops below 3, forget it.

Buffalo over ST. LOUIS by 10
Not much of a case to be made for the hapless Rams here. Not when 0-3 SU and ATS home teams are 9-18-1 ATS, including 0-5 when hosting an undefeated foe. Buffalo has been one of the surprise teams in 2008, for sure. It’s hard laying this many points with them, though, as they are just 9-17-2 ATS as road favorites, including 2-9-2 against an opponent off back-to-back losses. Then again, with St. Louis’ 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS against winning teams under Scott Linehan there is no way we’d entertain wasting our hard-earned money on a team that can’t compete.

San Diego over OAKLAND by 10
With rumors circulating hot and heavy about the impending fi ring of Raider coach Lane Kiffi n, one has to wonder about the mental approach of the Blackand- Silver as they enter this game. And that’s a shame as this year’s team appears much more competitive than editions past. Nonetheless, the Chargers have owned this series (9-1 ATS the last 10 games, including 6-0 here) and they own a gaudy 11-1 ATS mark in September on the road against avenging opposition. The Raiders’ 2-14 ATS record at home in division games slants this game heavily in the visitor’s favor.

DALLAS over Washington by 7
All aboard. It’s time for everyone jumping on the Cowboy bandwagon to step up and be counted. To that we refer to Lee Corso’s favorite phrase, “Not so fast, my friend!” Sure, they’re another 3-0 team at home in Game Four taking on a winning opponent (these teams are 20-8 ATS). And, yes, Wade Phillips is 6-1 ATS in games against opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. But the fact of the matter is the Redskins are a well-schooled unit (one turnover this season) that has given Dallas fi ts the last three seasons (4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS). They are also 14-6-1 ATS as road dogs against division foes off a win, including 9-3 taking 6 or more points. Too many points to pass here. No leaping allowed.

Philadelphia over CHICAGO by 6 Eagles continue to soar behind a healthy Donovan McNabb while the Bears continue to search for a quarterback they can rely upon. Granted, Kyle Orton has given Chicago a shot in the arm early on but the fact of the matter is there is a huge edge in Philly’s favor in this QB matchup. Ditto on the coaching sidelines where Andy Reid reigns superior over Lovie Smith. That’s confi rmed by Reid’s 25-11 ATS road mark against an opponent off a loss, including 11-2 when he has road rage (revenge). Conversely, Smith is just 9-14 ATS against non-division opposition seeking revenge, including 0-6 during the fi rst six games of the season. Andy looks just dandy here tonight.

Monday, September 29th

5* BEST BET

PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.

Marc Lawrence PLAYBOOK

COLLEGE

Friday, September 26th
LOUISVILLE over UConn by 6
Both of these Big Easters were showcased against Big 12 foes last week in primetime and both emerged with SU wins, just what was needed from a conference that’s endured some withering criticism so far in 2008. For the home-lovin’ Cardinals, this game marks the fi rst of four league paybacks from last year. However, there are a few more ‘fours’ that need to be considered here: conference home favorites in Game Four of a season-opening four-game homestand are a lukewarm 7-16-1 ATS. Duly noted but we’ll also point out that the invading Huskies don’t really live up to their name on the conference road, mushing along to a feeble 2-9 ATS mark when getting points. With the series visitor currently 0-3 ATS, it’s possible these sled dogs could lose their way on a chilly Kentucky night.Saturday, September 27th

WAKE FOREST over Navy by 13
And then there was one. With household names like Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami Fla and Clemson grabbing the headlines, the notion that Wake Forest would one day – any day – fi nd themselves to be the ACC’s fl agship program seemed about as impossible as something like Elvis’ daughter marrying Michael Jackson (wait… that did happen, didn’t it?). After confi dently humiliating Florida State 12-3 on national TV to remain undefeated, Jim Grobe’s Deacons can no longer be ignored as major players in the ACC. Wake does owe a debt of gratitude to the schedule maker after being set up with a very beatable foe in Navy on Saturday, then given a timely week off to prep for Clemson. The Middies squared their season at 2-2 after becoming the latest bully to beat up on Rutgers but still carry the scars of last year’s 20-point thrashing by Wake at Annapolis. The sailors are 5-1 ATS as dogs of 14 > points, a stat that loses some signifi cance when we note Navy’s 2-7 mark as dogs lately against the ACC. However, the Demon Deacons own an embarrassing 0-6 spread record as non-conference home chalk at this price. After trading bruises with the physical Seminoles, Riley Skinner and company may not have enough left in the tank for a margin call over the hard-trying Midshipmen.

TEMPLE over W Michigan by 1
We knew the Owls would have trouble getting up for Penn State last week following their devastating last-second defeat by Buffalo on a Hail Mary TD pass. Temple’s luck went from bad to worse when the Nittany Lions knocked QB Adam DiMichele out of the game on the fi fth play from scrimmage but the Owl defense stepped up to hold PSU scoreless in the fi rst quarter. Then the roof collapsed and Temple was buried beneath 31 second-quarter points en route to a 45-3 embarrassment. Western Michigan rides into Philly on a 3-game win streak and will get to line up against its fi fth consecutive foe that suffered a losing season in ’07. However, we’re not that impressed by the Broncos’ list of victims – Northern Illinois, Idaho and Tennessee Tech – and the trip to hostile Lincoln Financial Field may be tougher than expected. The barn-dwellers are 5- 1 ATS playing with revenge after tangling with Penn State and we actually like homecoming home dogs playing with triple revenge. Although DiMichele will miss the game (and likely be out for a considerable length of time), replacement Chester Stewart won’t be running for his life all afternoon like he was against the fearsome Nittany Lion pass rush. Owls fi ght their way back into the MAC race with the upset here.

WEST VIRGINIA over Marshall by 15
Mountaineer fans are silently praying they haven’t jumped the gun in awarding a contract extension to coach Bill Stewart… especially after West Virginia’s 17-14 overtime loss at Colorado dropped the Mounties to 1-2 for the fi rst time since 2003. We’ve already warned you against putting your faith in a home favorite recovering from an OT loss; that’s a shame because the Hillbillies are totin’ some good numbers to this fracas: West Virginia is 5-2 ATS off consecutive SU road losses and 5-2 ATS at Morgantown taking on C-USA opponents. The Herd may be 3-1 SU in ’08 but they’re 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) and have visited the shed in their last two hoedowns with WVU, getting whacked by 25 and 32 points.Despite their early woes, the Mountaineers represent a big step up in class for Marshall, who will slide to 0-4-1 ATS versus the Big East if they fail against the number here. Time for QB Pat White to step up and take control of his team.

Pittsburgh over SYRACUSE by 13
Here’s a real shocker: both coaches enter this contest off a SU win, although Pittsburgh’s Dave Wannstedt earned his against a tough Iowa team while soonto- be-cast-into-the-lake-of-fi re Greg Robinson watched his ‘Cuse batter 1-AA cream puff Northeastern (0-3 this year and 3-8 in ’07). Even more unbelievable is the Stunning Stat of the Week: the Orange are 25-8 SUATS in the dome off a SU win, including a 3-1 ATS mark under the doomed Robinson. The Panthers are an awful 1-5 ATS of late in Big East openers but we can’t get too excited because Syracuse resides at the bottom of an 0-7 hole they’ve dug as home underdogs.We also can’t seriously consider investing in two bad coaches who’ve enjoyed about as much success lately as our country’s fi nancial institutions. No thanks.

Michigan St over INDIANA by 7
Ball State’s 42-20 pummeling of the Hoosiers last week lets us know the IU program still has a ways to go under coach Bill Lynch. Indiana’s defense failed to show up, allowing the Gonads to pile up 463 total yards in a disappointing home favorite loss. Even more troubling is the 224 rushing yards the Hoosiers yielded, a number that should have Michigan State RB Javon Ringer licking his chops. After ripping through Notre Dame for 201 rushing yards, Ringer increased his season total to 699 yards (2nd in the nation) and chalked up his 11th TD, the most in the country. The ATS archives also point us in Sparty’s direction: MSU has cashed in 5 of the last 6 series meetings including a 4-1 ATS mark at Bloomington. The Hoosiers sweeten the deal by offering up a miserable 10-24 ATS record at home when tackling a foe off back-to-back wins. All these glowing numbers can’t disguise the fact that today’s game marks the fi rst of FIVE straight Big 10 revengers for the Spartans and after being spoiled by a trio of games in friendly East Lansing, MSU may be a tad overpriced as road chalk in its conference opener. Pass.

IOWA over Northwestern by 8
Unbeaten Northwestern will get its fi rst major test of the young season in Iowa City when they tackle an angry bunch of Hawkeyes who easily could have beaten Pittsburgh last week but stumbled to a 21-20 loss instead. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz drew some criticism when he chose to go with QB Jake Christensen over Ricky Stanzi for the entire second half but the truth is the loss was a total team effort. The Hawkeyes outgained Pitt 361-259 but converted just 4-of-17 third-down opportunities, suffered six sacks and missed a critical 35-yard fi eld goal. Expect the Iowa defense to rise to the occasion while Ferentz sorts out his QB dilemma – the Hawkeye stop unit had allowed ZERO touchdowns in three games before Pittsburgh crossed the goal line three times. The Wildcats’ fast start has come against a trio of weaklings that own a 1-7 SU mark against lined competition in ’08 but Northwestern’s usually porous defense has shown some fi re, holding back-to-back opponents to single digits for the fi rst time since 1995. Still, there’s no denying NU’s sorry 4-10 ATS log as an underdog off consecutive wins while the hosts chip in with a 4-0 SUATS mark when playing off a 1-point loss. The bottom line is we’re just not that crazy about homecoming favorites and the early line looks to be pretty sharp.

DUKE over Virginia by 3
No, it’s not a misprint… the Blue Devils are actually favored, quite a rare sight for a team that’s taken an average of 16 PPG from the Cavaliers in ten straight series doggie appearances. In fact, the Wahoos have been favored a whopping 19 times in a row over the Dukies, winning 17 of those confrontations SU. As you might expect, Duke owns a horrid 1-10 ATS record as chalk and they don’t know how to handle success, failing to cash in 15 of 16 tries after logging a SU win. Fortunately for the Cavs, they’ve had an extra week off to initiate repairs to a defense that was obliterated in a 45-10 loss at UConn (Huskies had a 506-219 advantage in total yards, outrushed UVA 382-31 and led 28-0 at halftime). They’ll also be welcoming a walk-on at QB, a position devastated by injuries, defections and suspensions. Despite these sobering stats, we still can’t open the wallet to lay a touchdown with a team that’s been favored only TWICE in the last four years. Our INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3) says it all: hold your nose and take the points.

MIAMI FLA over North Carolina by 4
Hurricanes showed some spunk in their loss to Florida two weeks ago, then built on that success by roaring into College Station last Saturday and fl attening Texas A&M 41-23. Suddenly, Miami is fl ashing a bit of the old UM swagger andthey’d love nothing more than to settle the score with former head coach Butch Davis, who beat the Canes 33-27 as a 7-point home dog at Chapel Hill in ’07. UNC looked to be in control of its ACC opener with Virginia Tech last week but the Heels consistently shot themselves in both feet: critical turnovers combined with 121 yards in penalties allowed the Hokies to rally from a 14-point defi cit for the win. A major concern for this game is the health of Carolina QB T.J. Yates, who left with an ankle against Va Tech and will not suit up here. That adds up to a major advantage for the speedy Hurricane ‘D’ but until coach Randy Shannon improves on his 2-6 SUATS mark in conference games (0-4 ATS home), we simply can’t trust laying points with him. Miami’s 2-8 ATS record as a revenger further clouds the picture and with the line currently hovering around 7 points, we think Baby Blue could actually steal the green here

FLORIDA over Ole Miss by 20
The TV coverage of Florida’s 30-6 Saturday smackdown of Tennessee consisted mainly of sideline shots of UT coach Phil Fulmer cursing, grimacing and gritting his teeth in rage, images that will convince most bettors to expect a similarly dominating effort from the Gators today. Not so fast, though… both teams enter today’s tussle off ‘Inside-Out’ performances. Ole Miss buried Vandy by 183 yards in a 23-17 home loss to the Commodores while Fulmer’s Vols actually won the stats against Florida. Even more disconcerting for reptile lovers is the array of ATS stats that back the visiting Rebels. Ole Miss has cashed in four straight meetings (3-0 L3 at The Swamp), owns a 4-0 ATS log off back-to-back homers and rings the register when playing on the highway with SEC revenge (7-2 ATS L9). Meanwhile, the Gators have dropped six straight to the number after tangling with Tennessee and they’ve laid an 0-3 egg lately as conference home chalk of 22 or more points. UF’s 3-0 start is somewhat misleading: the Gators are averaging 37 PPG despite gaining only 332 YPG thanks to their overwhelming 10-1 edge in the turnover department. Florida’s Urban Meyer has faced Mississippi coach Houston Nutt only once, winning by 10 points in the 2006 SEC Championship game, and he’ll have to coax another such effort from his Gators to have a realistic shot at covering today’s huge impost.

LSU over Mississippi St by 21
Even if LSU doesn’t get a chance to defend its national championship this season, there’s no denying the toughness and tenacity of this superb Tiger team. Trailing 14-3 at the half in Saturday night’s showdown with Auburn, the Bayou Bengals scored a touchdown on their fi rst possession of the second stanza, then silenced the sold-out crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium when Les Miles pulled an onside kick from under his hat and regained possession of the football. Several plays later, LSU scored to take the lead and even though Auburn rallied for a late 21-20 edge, the better-conditioned, more physical Tiger offensive line cleared the way for a game-winning – and spread covering – TD with just over a minute remaining. Coupled with Mississippi State’s horrendous no-show at Georgia Tech (lost 38-7), today’s matchup looks like the latest in a long line of LSU blowouts of the Bulldogs. The Bengals have grabbed the cash in 10 of the last 11 series meetings and Miles has punished MSU coach Sylvester Croom in their three contests by an average of over 35 PPG. True, LSU is stuck between an Auburn/Florida sandwich but the Tigers get a bye week after Missy State to gear up for the Gators. We can trot out a few stats in favor of the Bulldogs – 8-2 ATS on the road with revenge, for example – but we know you’ll ignore them. Our take is simple… we don’t see how LSU can recover from its emotionally depleting win over Auburn to take the woeful Bulldogs seriously and as we’ve said before, disinterested favorites are not to our liking. Pass.

No Illinois over E MICHIGAN by 6
Following a pair of season-opening losses to Minnesota and Western Michigan that could easily have ended as wins, Northern Illinois fi nally broke into the win column with a 48-3 destruction of Indiana State. We’d be more impressed if new Huskies coach Jerry Kill had beaten up someone besides a Sycamore scrap heap that went 0-11 last season but, in truth, NIU could be heading into today’s revenger with the EMUs sporting a 3-0 record. The Eagles opened their season with a 52-0 smashing of the same sad Sycamores but have since been grounded by a trio of consecutive ugly losses where they were outscored 134- 51. This probably explains why Northern Illinois, a team that lost to Eastern Michigan last year as double-digit home favorites, has been installed as 6-point road chalk here. The Huskies can improve to 4-0 SU and ATS on this fi eld with a win-and-cover today but from where we’re sitting, it looks too close to call.

C MICHIGAN over Buffalo by 3
More MAC madness as both teams try to shake off non-conference losses. Gutty Buffalo continues to impress under coach Turner Gill, hanging tough with mighty Missouri before falling 42-21 (easily covering as a 32-point dog). The Chippewas played hard, too, losing a second straight last-minute decision to Purdue but also cashing the ATS ticket. We know the linemaker is impressed with Buffy: the Bulls are catching just 7 points at Mount Pleasant compared to the 15 they took in a home game with CMU back in 2006. With few ATS stats to recommend either side, let’s talk intangibles. We think Buffalo gained a world of confi dence from their game with Mizzou while Central Michigan could still be down after dropping an emotional double revenger to the Boilers. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS after allowing 21 or more points and if the Chips let down just a little, Buffy could easily roam into the Winner’s Circle.

Cincinnati over AKRON by 7
Bearcats showed no ill effects from their previous manhandling at Oklahoma when they rebounded to spank Miami Ohio 45-20. Cincy QB Tony Pike replaced injured starter Dustin Grutza and almost pitched a perfect game, completing 20 of 24 passes for 241 yards and 3 touchdowns. Though today’s matchup is a home game for Akron, the Zips are probably wishing they could take on the Bearcats somewhere in New York… both their wins this season came in the Empire State against Syracuse and Army. Yes, the Rubber City boys did go fl at in losses to Wisconsin and Ball State but with Cincinnati’s Pike making his fi rst road start, Akron may be able to keep the Bearcat offense in check. The Zips’ 22-3 win over the Cadets last week makes them a play in this sweet little angle:home underdogs off a SU win as double-digit favorites are a solid 13-6 ATS since 1990. We’ll cast a slim vote on Akron’s behalf here.

EAST CAROLINA over Houston by 7
You’d be hard-pressed to fi nd two more dejected squads squaring off on today’s schedule than ECU and Houston. The BCS bowl glass slipper that the Pirates were so proudly displaying after a 3-0 start was rudely shattered by an overtime loss to hated NC State when ECU QB Patrick Pinkney set up State for the winning score by losing a critical fumble. The Cougars, a bowl team for the past three seasons, sank to a 1-3 start when new coach Kevin Sumlin rolled the dice against Colorado State and came up empty. Instead of attempting a 32-yard FG that would have forced overtime with the Rams, Sumlin directed QB Case Keenum to go for the win – and his pass was picked off in the CSU end zone. Despite their disappointed demeanor, both teams bring some strong ATS credentials to the party. East Carolina has covered fi ve of the last six in the series. They also own a 5-0 ATS mark off consecutive road trips and stand 6-1 ATS as double-digit conference chalk. Houston counters with a 5-1-1 ATS mark when playing with conference revenge, a scenario that was assured by last year’s ugly 37-35 loss to ECU as a 14-point home favorite. Our aversion to OT losers that show up as home favorites will keep us from sailing with the Pirates here, especially since the ship appears to have sprung a few serious leaks.

South Florida over NC STATE by 7
The Wolfpack used up a season’s worth of emotion in last week’s electrifying overtime win over East Carolina at Raleigh. NC State fans that were wondering if the Tom O’Brien hire would ever produce dividends must have breathed a huge sigh of relief following the 30-24 Wolfpack win. They may fi nd themselves gasping for breath today when State butts heads with the Bulls of South Florida (3-0 ATS vs. ACC foes). USF sleepwalked through a weak 17-9 win over woeful Florida International last Saturday so you can bet the coaches will clamp down and demand greater intensity for this tough road game. State does have one solid stat in its favor: entering this season, home underdogs off a SU overtime win are 27-17 ATS. We have great respect for the USF program but State could ride the home crowd to another cover here.

Florida State over Colorado by 6
Sure wish we hadn’t already handed out the Caption Obvious Award. Try out this gem from Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden after his Seminoles lost SEVEN turnovers in a brutal 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest: “We’re not where I hoped we would be.” Guess what? Things might not improve real soon. Fresh off a confi dence-builder over West Virginia, the Buffs carry a 5-1 ATS mark into Jacksonville when playing off a SU home dog win. No need to worry about a Colorado look-ahead to Texas; the Buffaloes have cashed eight of nine tries before taking on the Longhorns. The dazed Seminoles are 0-4 ATS lately after playing Wake and own a poor 1-5 ATS mark off an ACC opponent when taking on a non-league opponent. The site should provide a major edge for FSU in terms of fan support, the main reason we’re calling for a fi nal so close to the current number. led Boston College 7-3 at halftime last week, then were trampled underfoot by a 31-point second-half outburst by the Eagles. Poor play at quarterback and a rash of missed fi eld goals doomed UCF, not good news for a squad that’s only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 tries as a road favorite. George O’Leary’s Knights beat the Miners last season, 36-20, as 21-point home favorites – making the current 4-5 point line look mighty tempting. That’s when the PLAYBOOK database warns us UTEP is a solid 6-2 ATS recently as a home underdog. Sure, the Miners aren’t much but they did outgain mighty Texas in a loss here three weeks ago. Close call.

4* BEST BET

PENN ST over Illinois by 27
Okay, so the Nittany Lions haven’t taken on world-class competition so far in 2008 – they still look like the team to beat in this season’s Big 10 race. The Nits have taken to Joe Pa’s new spread offense, averaging an Oklahoma-like 539 YPG (273 rushing / 266 passing). Last year’s 27-20 win by Illinois was head coach Ron Zook’s fi rst over Paterno and Joe Shades is a good bet to return the favor: he’s 17-5 ATS when winning SU as a favorite with revenge. Zook’s numbers don’t look nearly so good. He’s a weak 1-6 ATS on the road versus revenge (0-3 as a dog with losses of 17, 23 and 33 points) and has not cashed a single ticket against an avenging conference foe. With the 81-year old Paterno noticeably bothered by a broken leg suffered last season, this is Penn State’s best opportunity to reach the BCS title game before the iconic Joe Pa resigns. Regardless, the Lions should avenge last year’s SU road favorite loss at Champaign by squeezing the Juice out of the Illini.

New Mexico over NEW MEXICO ST by 1
Lobos must have still been reading the press clippings from their stirring 36- 28 home shocker over Arizona when they took the fi eld against Tulsa last Saturday. Thirty minutes later, the Golden Hurricane had blown New Mexico off the fi eld by a 35-0 score. Tulsa fi nished with 606 total yards of offense and scored touchdowns on fi ve of its six fi rst-half possessions. Thankfully for UNM coach Rocky Long, he gets to take on an opponent he’s beaten fi ve consecutive times. But this little beauty from the PLAYBOOK database puts us on Hal Mumme’s Aggies: home teams in Game Three are 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS vs. sub .500 foes playing Game Five, including 7-0 ATS if the host is off a loss. With State gradually closing the gap between these two enemy programs, look for the Aggies to improve to 6-0-1 ATS in Game Three of a season by nabbing the cover here.

SAN DIEGO ST over Idaho by 13
These sure are some sporadic Spuds. Idaho has gone 2-2 so far ITS this year but those two stat losses were by an ungodly 409 and 309 yards. How bad are the Vandals? So bad that we like a San Diego State team that’s averaging just 34.7 yards rushing per game (#118) to bring home the pointspread bacon against the Tater Heads. Aztecs play their best off a bye week, covering 10 of 13 opportunities, a number that tightens to 8-1 if they’re off back-to-back losses (SDSU 0-3 in ’08). Any team that gives up 42 points to lowly Utah State like the spud-boys did last week can’t be trusted at any price.

UNLV over Nevada by 3
Surprising Rebels (2-win season each of the previous four years) have started 3-1 for the fi rst time since 2003. They followed their huge upset of Arizona State with a tense 34-31 win over Iowa State, their second consecutive overtime victory. Vegas hasn’t slowed down the Wolf Pack lately, though, dropping three in a row both SU and ATS. Nevada won last year’s meeting 27-20 but the loss of star RB Luke Lippincott (broken leg against Texas Tech on 9/6) is a major blow for the Reno Wolves. We’re going to pass here so if you plan on playing this Silver State battle, you’ll have to pick your poison.

San Jose St over HAWAII by 1
Spartans got shoved around by more physical Stanford last week but will have no such problem here: Hawaii has gone from being an undefeated BCS bowl squad to a WAC punching bag in record time. SJSU coach Dick Tomey has come up empty in three cracks at the Warriors but this could be his breakthrough opportunity. The Islanders are just 4-8 ATS in the series, including a sad 1-5 mark off a SU loss, and their offense has declined to the point where the defense is spending far too many minutes on the fi eld. We’ll take the better team with the better coach – and as many points as we can scrape up by game time.

ADDED GAMES

KENTUCKY over W Kentucky by 25
On paper this is a much bigger game for the new kids on the block from Bowling Green than it is for the Lexington Cats. The little schools always bring all they’ve got against their brethren (witness Ohio U at Ohio State earlier this season). With Alabama on deck (0-4 ATS in games before the Tide), Kentucky could be in a prime look-ahead spot. However, in deference to the SMART BOX,we’ll ditch those ideas and instead ignore the Hilltoppers.

MEMPHIS over Arkansas St by 3
The Red Wolves have been a pleasant surprise this season and look to be in position to challenge Florida Atlantic for Sun Belt honors. Before buying a ride on the Red Wolf express, though, be advised Memphis has played much better than its 1-3 record would indicate. The fact of the matter is the Tigers are 4-0 In the Stats this season. They also enter today’s fray with a dose of double revenge against ASU. With a Louisiana Monroe revenge affair up next for the Wolves, we’ll run with the Tigers in this four-legged special.

OKLAHOMA ST over Troy by 18
Hats off to the Trojans. Not only did they manage to outstat Ohio State in Columbus last week, they are also 17-6 SU in their last 23 games. Hence, a 5-1 ATS log as dogs of 24 or less points when squaring off against .666 or greater opposition. The question today, though, is whether or not a letdown is in order? In the Cowboys they take on a team that has bagged the cash in 10 of its last 12 tries as a non-conference favorite of 13 or more points. If a string of three straight Big 12 revenge games weren’t on tap, we’d consider snapping the rubberband with this offensive juggernaut.

TOLEDO over Florida Int’l by 16
Holy Toledo, what a contest the Rockets were involved in last week. A 55-54 overtime loss to Fresno, on this fi eld, was determined when Tom Amstutz decided to pull a ‘Shanahan’ and go-for-two to win the game in the 2nd OT. Now they become a non-desirous home favorite off an overtime loss with a Ball State revenge game up next. While FIU isn’t much, they did battle USF tooth-n-nail in the debut of their new home stadium last week and could be in a letdown mode themselves. No interest either way here.

KANSAS ST over UL-Lafayette by 21
Another paycheck game but then aren’t all non conference Sun Belt games for the love of the money? The thinking here is the Wildcats likely have bigger fi sh to fry next week (Texas Tech). Next thought is the Ragin’ Cajuns are a nifty 6-3 ATS against the Big 12. The fi nal thinking is KSU is 7-1 ATS at home versus anopponent off a double-digit victory. The bottom line is we suppose we’ll pass.

RICE over North Texas by 19
Rotten numbers abound on both sides of the ball in this stinker. The not-so Mean Green are 2-9 ATS as non-conference pups off a loss and 1-5 ATS as wellrested dogs. The soggy Krispies have no snap, crackle or pop either as they are 1-9 ATS as chalk off a non-conference game when taking on a foe off a loss;1-6 SU and ATS in their last 7 tries as a favorite; and are a not-so-glamorous 13-33 SU record in their last 46 games. We’re not interested whatsoever in this scrabble match.

WRITE-IN GAME

TEXAS over Arkansas by 24
The Hogs were taken back behind the shed and whupped-up at home by Alabama in a red-faced 35-point loss last week while Texas trounced Rice by 42 points in preparation for this Hurricane Ike makeup. According to our history book, Arkansas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the last four games in this series while the visiting team is a super-sharp 9-1-1 ATS the last 10 games. Considering that,since 1980, the largest line in this series has been 13.5 points (two times) and that the underdog won both of those affairs STRAIGHT-UP, you’d have to hogtie us to keep us from taking the points.

Athlon Sports

Connecticut (+3.5) at Louisville

Louisville has bounced back from a dreadful performance in an opening-day loss to Kentucky to post consecutive wins over Tennessee Tech (51–10) and Kansas State (38–29). We don’t know quite yet how good (or bad) Kansas State is (the hunch is more bad than good), but the Cards played very well in the Thursday night win over the Wildcats. Victor Anderson posted his second straight 100-yard rushing game and Hunter Cantwell looked far more comfortable in the pocket. The challenge will be more difficult this week. UConn once again is winning games without much fanfare, doing so with a potent rushing attack and a very solid defense. Donald Brown leads the nation in rushing with 179.0 yards per game, but he is far from a one-man show. The Huskies boast several big-time running backs — some young, some old — to complement Tyler Lorenzen and the pedestrian passing game. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored in this game.

Connecticut 27, Louisville 21

Alabama (+6) at Georgia

We knew Georgia’s 2008 schedule was going to be brutal, but back in the summer we didn’t figure this early season date with the Crimson Tide would end up being such a big hurdle. Nick Saban’s club has been one of the nation’s biggest surprises, rolling out to a 4–0 record highlighted by dominating performances against Clemson in Week 1 and at Arkansas in the SEC opener. The strength of the team has been the rushing attack, with a host of talented ball-carriers operating behind a veteran offensive line. Georgia is a tough club to run on, however, so senior quarterback John Parker Wilson likely will be forced to make some plays down the field. Could this be Julio Jones’ coming out party? The freshman wideout has been solid when called upon, but the Tide haven’t really needed to open up the passing attack. Speaking of supremely talented freshman receivers, Georgia is getting a big (and much-needed) lift from A.J. Green, who has emerged as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target. In Stafford, Green and tailback Knowshon Moreno, Georgia boasts a trio of skill players that rival any in the SEC. Alabama is very good. Georgia is great.

Georgia 20, Alabama 17

Colorado (+6) at Florida State (Jacksonville)

One team is coming a thrilling overtime win over a (formerly) ranked opponent. The other team is coming off sobering 12–3 loss at home that featured some dreadful play on offense. Yet, Colorado (which beat West Virginia) finds itself as almost a touchdown underdog against Florida State, which managed only 220 total yards in a loss to Wake Forest. Yes, Florida State has the home field advantage, even though this game is being played in Jacksonville, but there isn’t much evidence (if any) to suggest that the Seminoles are the better team. They are still having major problems at the quarterback position. Against Wake, true freshmen Christian Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson combined to complete only 33 percent of their passes and were intercepted a total of five times. The Noles’ defense played well, but this team needs to get better on offense to challenge for the Atlantic Division title. Colorado isn’t likely to challenge for a division crown in the Big 12 North, but the Buffaloes continue to makes strides under Dan Hawkins. They have a pair of talented true freshman tailbacks in Rodney Stewart and Darrell Scott, and quarterback Cody Hawkins has been steady in the first three games. Florida State will be by far the best defense CU has seen, but I think the Buffs will have enough to get it done on the road.

Colorado 21, Florida State 17

Tennessee (+6.5) at Auburn

These are not good times for Phil Fulmer. The man who delivered a national title at his alma mater in 1998 is under intense fire in the Volunteer State after a fourth straight loss to the hated Gators. It doesn’t figure to get much better in the near future, with trips to Auburn and Georgia looming. This team has talent, but the offense has struggled under new coordinator Dave Clawson, and the special teams have been poor. Auburn must rebound from an agonizing 26–21 loss at home to SEC West rival LSU. The Tigers have been outstanding on defense (as usual) but have been inconsistent on offense while adapting to Tony Frankin’s spread attack. Chris Todd showed some positive signs against LSU, throwing for 250 yards and a touchdown, but he was intercepted twice. Both teams are very good on defense and both teams are experiencing some growing pains on offense. Should be a typical SEC game.

Auburn 17, Tennessee 13

North Carolina (+7) at Miami

North Carolina’s hopes of reaching the ACC title game for the first time took a big hit when quarterback T.J. Yates injured his ankle in the third quarter of the Tar Heels’ 20–17 loss at home to Virginia Tech. Backup Mike Paulus, who completed 3-of-8 for 23 yards with three interceptions in relief, will make his first career start this weekend. Miami is coming off the biggest win of the Randy Shannon era, a surprisingly easy 41–23 victory at Texas A&M. Redshirt freshman Robert Marve looked very good at quarterback, completing 16-of-22 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns, and Graig Cooper rushed for 128 yards and two scores on only 16 attempts. We’ll know more about this team after Saturday, but the Hurricanes are looking like a legitimate contender in the Coastal Division.

Miami 24, North Carolina 14

Illinois (+14) at Penn State

The schedule hasn’t been overly taxing, but Penn State has been one of the most impressive teams so far this season. Thanks in large part to the emergence of senior Daryll Clark at quarterback, the offense is averaging over 50 points and 500 yards per game. And the defense has been impressive, too, giving up no more than 14 points in any single game. The Nittany Lion D figures to get its stiffest test from a potentially explosive Illinois attack. The Illini scored 42 in a season-opening loss to Missouri and 47 vs. FCS opponent Eastern Illinois but managed only 20 points (with only one offensive TD) in a sluggish 20–17 win vs. Louisiana-Lafayette. Over the last two games — against inferior competition — Juice Williams has thrown three interceptions and only two touchdowns. He will need to play mistake-free football to give his team a chance to win in Happy Valley.

Penn State 37, Illinois 24

Purdue (+2.5) at Notre Dame

Purdue, which lost in overtime in Week 2 to Oregon, is painfully close to being 3–0 on the season. But the Boilers, who escaped with a 32–25 win over Central Michigan last Saturday, could also be 1–2. Joe Tiller’s club is getting great production from tailback Kory Sheets (117.3 ypg), but senior quarterback Curtis Painter isn’t posting the type of numbers we are used to seeing. He hasn’t been bad, but he has yet to throw for 300 yards (after doing so six times last season) and has only tossed three TD passes. Purdue’s offensive balance should pose problems for Notre Dame. The Irish have struggled against the run and have had a tough time putting pressure on the quarterback, with only three sacks in three games. Jimmy Clausen has shown improvement at quarterback, but he isn’t getting much help from the running game. I’m not sure the ND offense is good enough to outscore Purdue, even at home.

Purdue 34, Notre Dame 24

Northwestern (+7.5) at Iowa

Northwestern is one of the undefeated teams that we still don’t know too much about. The Wildcats have defeated a bad Syracuse team, a decent Duke team (on the road), a FCS foe in South Illinois and a solid MAC team in Ohio. The offense hasn’t been quite as potent as we thought, but the defense has been better than expected. This week will present quite a challenge, however. The Cats will be facing the nation’s eighth leading rusher in Shonn Greene, who has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of the first four games. The Hawkeyes have been playing both Jake Christensen and Ricky Stanzi at quarterback this season. Stanzi, a sophomore, did not play in the second half of a one-point loss at Pittsburgh last week but is expected to get the start against Northwestern. Iowa has been terrific on defense, giving up a total of 29 points in four games; if the Hawkeyes are simply mediocre on defense, they should be in position to earn a spot in the top half of the Big Ten.

Iowa 20, Northwestern 14

Virginia Tech (+6.5) at Nebraska

It’s the first significant test of the Bo Pelini era. The Huskers have passed every test so far, but we haven’t learned too much about this team in wins over Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State. This is far from a vintage Virginia Tech team, but the Hokies are good enough to beat Nebraska in Lincoln. Statistically, Tech hasn’t been impressive, but Frank Beamer’s club has found a way to eek out 20–17 wins over Georgia Tech and North Carolina to open the ACC schedule with a 2–0 record. Nebraska hasn’t given up a lot of points (14.3 per game), but the Huskers have been a bit vulnerable against the pass, allowing 269.7 yards per game. However, don’t expect Virginia Tech to come into Lincoln and throw the ball all over the yard. Tyrod Taylor is winning games as the starting quarterback, but the Hokies are doing very little in the passing game. He has thrown for a total of 173 yards with no touchdowns and two INTs in two ACC games. If Virginia Tech can’t move the ball through the air, scoring points could be very difficult.

Nebraska 24, Virginia Tech 14

Wisconsin (-6.5) at Michigan

With Ohio State not dominating like we thought, the Big Ten race could get very interesting. Wisconsin, off to a 3–0 start, looks like a contender, but the Badgers are about to embark on a very difficult three-game stretch that features a road game at Michigan and home dates with Ohio State and Penn State. Wisconsin has been sharp in every phase of the game, most notably running the ball and stopping the run. If the Badgers can slow down Michigan’s ground game, led by freshman Sam McGuffie, they should be in good position to celebrate their first win in Ann Arbor since 1994.

Wisconsin 27, Michigan 18

Last week: 6–4 straight up (7–3 against the spread)

Season: 24–16 straight up (21–18–1 against the spread)

THE SPORTS MEMO - NFL

MARTY OTTO
MINNESOTA AT TENNESSEE -3 O/U 36
Recommendation: Tennessee

The Titans are looking like the class of the AFC South right now and are asked to lay just three points at home against the Vikings? We’ll pick this one off early. Since Vince Young went down we have seen an increase in the passing game with Kerry Collins. It hasn’t been a huge difference statistically but Collins does a much better job in the short to intermediate touch routes that Young struggled so much with. He is better at reading defenses too, a big plus when we consider ball security. The old man still has a gun for an arm and forces teams to respect the pass which in turn helps the strong ground game with bruiser LenDale White and burner Chris Johnson. While Minny is strong on the ground offensively and very tough against the run defensively, its pass defense is still a major question mark. Once Collins softens them up look for some holes to open for the Titans’ running backs. Throw in a strong home field edge, a legit top-five defense and the fact that despite playing last week Adrian Peterson is dealing with a hamstring injury and we have advantages across the board. Take Tennessee.

ERIN RYNNING
CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI -4.5 O/U 43.5
Recommendation: Over

Two teams with playoff aspirations to start the season face-off with 0-3 records this Sunday as the Browns visit the Bengals. The reason these two squads have stumbled -- most notably the offenses -- has been the caliber of defenses they’ve faced. The Browns have surrendered to the Cowboys, Steelers (note bad weather game), and Ravens. All three are above average defensive units. Meanwhile, it’s been much the same for the Bengals with games against the Ravens, Titans (note bad weather game), and Giants. It’s no wonder both teams have found it tough sledding on offense. However, it all has a great chance to change this Sunday when these two below average defenses face one another. Remember last season when they hooked up for an amazing 51-45 shootout that produced 1,085 yards? As a result of the early season shortcomings, we look to be getting some value here with the total. These two teams still feature high-power weapons on offense
and I’ll look for them to ignite on Sunday. Take this one Over the total in what has the recipe to be an absolute scoring fest from the start.

TIM TRUSHEL
MINNESOTA AT TENNESSEE -3 O/U 36
Recommendation: Tennessee

The Titans are the best defensive team in the NFL. They create turnovers with a solid secondary and an even better front line. They get as much pressure on the quarterback as any team in the league. They don’t make a lot of mistakes and they are especially strong on third down allowing just 29.6% conversions. Yet because they are not flashy and not from a major media market, this team goes unnoticed and remains one of the best values on the board each week. Both Minnesota and Tennessee are similar in style, preferring a conservative approach while relying on the running game. Tennessee has had more success because of the quarterback play of Kerry Collins. A caretaker with a big arm, Collins’ heady play has earned him a quarterback rating of 90.7. Minnesota’s quarterback rating is well below 70. Additionally, the Tennessee offensive line is much better at pass blocking and has afforded the offense more time to avoid mistakes. Even in a winning effort last week, Gus Frerotte was sacked three times. The Titans have allowed just two sacks all season. The home field advantage is real and the Vikings have also been known to struggle away from their dome. We expect Tennessee to capitalize on the little advantages and earn the win and cover.

THE SPORTS MEMO - NCAA

ROB VENO
PURDUE +2.5 AT NOTRE DAME O/U 46
Recommendation: Purdue

I have to favor this Boilermakers squad in this game where extreme passing game advantages will be on display. After facing diverse offensive juggernauts Oregon and Central Michigan in their last two contests, Purdue will gladly welcome the sight of this incredibly stagnant Fighting Irish offense. Through three games, Notre Dame is averaging just 286.7 yards per game and that number includes the mediocre 342 they gained against San Diego State, which had all four defensive line starters out. Without turnover help and short fields (Michigan game), this team has struggled mightily to move the football and expect Purdue to keep them right in the 17-20 point range. Meanwhile, quarterback Curtis Painter and head coach Joe Tiller’s spread passing attack figures to have little trouble against the Irish. San Diego State brought an all out passing blitz and had Notre Dame chasing around receivers the entire game. Purdue’s much more finely tuned aerial attack is likely to shred the Irish pass defense and non-existent pass rush, which has exactly one sack in 113 pass attempts this season. With time to find receivers, Painter will likely have a monster day and that recipe alone is reason to back the Boilers getting points.

JARED KLEIN
ILLINOIS +14 AT PENN STATE O/U 58
Recommendation: Illinois

I have to take the two touchdowns here with this very talented Illini squad. We’re getting significant value with Illinois because of what we’ve seen over the past three weeks with these two squads. Illinois is 2-1 SU and seems to be getting penalized for barely pulling out a 20-17 win over Louisiana-Lafayette.Penn State has looked good, going 4-0 and beating its opponents by a combined score of 211-40. The Nittany Lions are notorious for soft preseason schedules and this year has been no different as Coastal Carolina, Oregon State and Temple all came to town and a trip to Syracuse was their only road trip. I think it’s safe to say that Illinois will be their biggest test of the season. Dating back to last season, Illinois is 6-0 ATS getting double-digits, two of which they won outright including last year’s win in Columbus over Ohio State. Let’s also keep in mind that the Illini lost to Missouri by 10 in St. Louis. Penn State has a pretty good offense, but for Illinois to essentially trade scores with the Tigers is very impressive and shows that there are few teams in the country that warrant a two touchdown line against this team.

FAIRWAY JAY
STANFORD AT WASHINGTON -3.5 O/U 52.5
Recommendation: Washington

Our card was filled with some brutal beats last week. None more awful than Stanford’s last second touchdown and cover when they decided to keep running the ball instead of taking a knee against rival San Jose State. We’ll get our money back this week with the Huskies, who come off a bye week and dominated Stanford in last season’s road contest with over 530 yards including 388 rushing. Stanford’s aggressive defense blitzed Washington heavily last season, and quarterback Jake Locker made them pay again with his escapability and run/pass talents. Washington has faced three top-25 teams to open the season with all three opponents featuring explosive offenses along with a pair of Heisman quarterback candidates. Now they face a mediocre signal caller in Stanford’s Tavita Prichard, who completed just 50% of his passes last season and is no better this year at 53% for 469 yards and 4 INT’s in four games. Washington spent the bye week focusing on its run defense and will likely force Prichard to beat them. We look for the Huskies to smell blood in the water and savior one of their few opportunities to score a big home win.

ED CASH
VIRGINIA AT DUKE -7 O/U 44
Recommendation: Duke

Virginia has won six straight meetings in Durham and 17 of 19 overall in the series, yet they find themselves as a touchdown underdog this week. This is despite the fact that Duke had only been favored in two games in the past five years prior to their win over Navy two weeks ago. Also note the Blue Devils have not been favored in an ACC game since 2002. In fact, my records go way back as the Duke win and cover over Navy was the first time they had covered the spread as a favorite in 12 games dating back to 1996. However, you can throw out all the stuff out as this is a completely different program under David Cutcliffe. There is definitely a reason the Blue Devils are laying a touchdown. Cutcliffe has some talented players and has coached them far better than anyone in Durham since Steve Spurrier roamed the sidelines. I’d even go so far as to say had the Blue Devils beat Northwestern -- a game they let slip away -- this line would be close to double-digits. Virginia is a program in complete rebuilding mode. They gave up nearly 600 yards to USC and almost 400 rushing yards to UConn in their two lined games this year. Don’t be afraid to lay the points with Duke this week.

TEDDY COVERS
SOUTH FLORIDA AT NC STATE +8.5 O/U 43.5
Recommendation: NC State

NC State has played stellar defense from Day 1 this college football season. Tom O’Brien’s squad shut down South Carolina for three quarters in their opener, until finally wearing down in the fourth after the continued ineptitude of their offensive attack. The Wolfpack held the powerful Clemson offense in check as well, cashing a ticket for their backers despite getting only a single field goal from their offense for the afternoon. In fact, the offense was held without a touchdown in 13 consecutive quarters against FBS teams dating back to last year, prior to their game against East Carolina this past Saturday. It’s not like NC State didn’t have a ground game - running back Andre Brown gained more than 100 yards against the Gamecocks’ stout defense. But their quarterback play bordered on inept, as O’Brien shuttled senior Daniel Evans, junior Harrison Beck and redshirt frosh Russell Wilson in and out of the lineup. The frosh, Wilson, ended any controversy this past Saturday, playing brilliantly in NC State’s come-from-behind win over East Carolina, throwing for 210 yards and three touchdowns. All of a sudden, this looks like a pretty good football team, playing with confidence and poise at home. As the Big East continues to falter repeatedly, both SU and ATS, we’ll take advantage with a play on this very live home underdog.

BRENT CROW
OLE MISS +23 AT FLORIDA O/U 49.5
Recommendation: Ole Miss

I was shocked at the line on this game with the Gators opening as more than a three-touchdown favorite. Florida is certainly a top notch team, but Ole Miss is vastly improved, even though they lost last week to Vanderbilt. The Rebels had a 385-202 yardage edge against the Commodores, but had six turnovers. Ole Miss has more talent this season than they have had ever since Eli Manning left for the NFL, and one bad game last week against an underrated Vanderbilt team has this line out of whack. It was Ole Miss, remember, that had Wake Forest on the ropes in Winston-Salem a couple of weeks ago. The Gators come in off a big 30-6 win at Tennessee and will likely have a little letdown this week, especially after seeing Ole Miss lose at home to Vanderbilt. Florida has definitely been overvalued under Urban Meyer, as they are just 1-9 ATS as double-digit conference favorites over the past three years. On the other hand, Houston Nutt thrived as a big SEC dog while at Arkansas, going 5-0 ATS the last three years when getting double-digits on the road. I feel Ole Miss will be able to move the ball enough to push across a couple of scores and take advantage of what looks to be an overpriced pointspread.

DONNIE BLACK
ALABAMA AT GEORGIA -6 O/U 44.5
Recommendation: Georgia

We have some concerns with the Bulldogs returning off their successful road trip to Tempe. But with bigger goals, including an SEC and National Championship at stake, we expect Georgia to once again be focused. Their opponent this week, Alabama, is off an impressive win over Arkansas. Nick Saban’s team is getting plenty of accolades from the media and pollsters alike. However, we feel Alabama is overrated. It is hard to find fault in their crushing road victory over Arkansas, but it was a game in which Arkansas moved the ball at will against the Alabama defense. Mistakes, penalties and huge turnovers kept Arkansas from ever getting close. Alabama had four scoring plays of 60+ yards and the game got away from the Razorbacks on two terrible pick-six interceptions. Alabama led 35-7 at the end of the first half yet Arkansas had more yards. These mistakes are not expected to occur with Georgia. Georgia has a better quarterback, defense and more overall depth. The Bulldogs have a bye week on deck and won’t get caught ill-prepared. This number was available as high as -10 at the beginning of the season and while Alabama has exceeded expectations we see the adjustment as a huge overreaction. Lay the short price.

BRENT CROW - EARLY LOOK

There are lots of bad teams laying big points this week in college football. Obviously, their opponents are pretty weak as well, but I thought some of these lines were pretty large considering the capabilities of the favorites. Some of the ones that jumped out at me were South Carolina -25 over UAB, Pittsburgh -15.5 at Syracuse, California -25 vs. Colorado State and Texas A&M -28 over Army. South Carolina just beat Wofford, 23-13, and now they are laying nearly four touchdowns over UAB? UAB may have one of the worst defenses in college football, but South Carolina has made every defense they have faced look good thus far.Question: How could Pittsburgh be favored by more than two touchdowns on the road? Answer: They are playing at Syracuse. The Orangemen struggled past Northeastern this week, 30-21, but at least they got a win. Northeastern, which also lost to Ball State and Georgia Southern, had nearly 400 yards of offense in the contest. Pitt escaped with a win over Iowa at home last week and I seriously doubt that Wannstedt has them focused this week. It will be a struggle for the Panthers.California -25 over Colorado State? Cal did put a beat down on Washington State, but so did Baylor and Oklahoma State. Colorado State is not a top-25 team by any means, but they can be competitive in the Mountain West, which by the way, has owned the PAC-10 this year. This was a seven-point game last year at Colorado State and the Rams outgained Cal by 50 yards.Finally, Texas A&M -28 over anybody seems absurd right now if you have seen the Aggies play. However, Army is as bad as any I-A team I have ever seen. They were hammered by Akron at home last week 22-3 and now travel to College Station to face a team that needs a blowout win. I’d love to play against A&M here, but Army may just be what they need at this point.For all the talk about the Auburn offense, it was the defense that let them down when it counted against LSU. This week, the Tigers are six-point favorites over Tennessee, which was trounced by Florida at home last week. Tennessee killed themselves on offense once again, as their first half possessions went fumble, punt, fumble,interception and a punt returned for a touchdown. Auburn’s defense will try and bounce back after allowing scoring drives of 73, 89, 76, and 54 against LSU in the second half.Wonder if Oklahoma remembers what happened the last time TCU came to Norman. You can bet Bob Stoops recalls that 2005 season opener when the 7th ranked Sooners dropped a 17-10 decision to TCU as a 25-point favorite. That happens to be the last time anyone has left Norman with a win. TCU should provide a challenge again, but I expect the Sooners to prevail, even though getting the cover might be tough.The big line moves this week were against former powerhouse programs that have fallen on hard times under new regimes. Wisconsin went from a 3-point road choice to -6.5 at Michigan and Fresno State went from -3.5 to -6.5 quickly in its game at UCLA. Obviously with the national attention and coverage that Michigan and UCLA both get, their struggles are going to be magnified, as everyone is certainly aware of. What is interesting here is that the Sunday night line moves were the result of sharp money, not Joe Public on Saturday mornings. Is this early money in anticipation of the public money to come, thereby setting up possible buy-back on Michigan and UCLA at even higher prices? Or was it the opening oddsmaker basing his number on tradition and not paying enough attention to what has happened to these programs in the first month of the year? My guess is a little of both, as the amount of money wagered on Sunday nights is small and they don’t have to open with a perfect number to eventually find the right one. This could be the week that the Penn State defense finally feels the effects of losing so many key linemen. The Lions have been spectacular on offense, but have yet to face a decent offense that could threaten them like Illinois. The Illini have gotten all of the early action with the number dropping from 16.5 to 14. Juice Williams and company will be looking to make it two in a row over the Nittany Lions.An improving NC State team, off an overtime win over East Carolina,gets another crack at a top-25 team this week when South Florida comes to Raleigh. Wolfpack freshman QB Russell Wilson had a nice game and seems to be gaining confidence as the leader of the offense. South Florida slept through its win over FIU last week and had better be ready this week or they could be the second straight upset victim of the Wolfpack.Florida State showed that its opening two wins over cupcakes meant little as they were dreadful on offense against Wake Forest last week. The Noles committed seven turnovers and numerous penalties in the 12-3 loss and somehow have been installed as favorites again this week over Colorado in Jacksonville. I would like to take the Buffs here, but am a little leery of the way they celebrated following last week’s win over West Virginia.How about this pointspread series swing: Purdue is a 3 point dog at Notre Dame after being -21.5 last year at home against the Irish. Two years ago they were +14.5 in South Bend, so the swing has been 36 and 24.5 points over the last two years. Very rare that you’ll see the pointspread swing that much between two BCS schools.Who will Oregon start at QB this week at Washington State? FreshmanDarron Thomas, who was fifth on the depth chart and slated to redshirt, came off the bench to throw three TD passes in the Ducks’ loss to Boise last week. It probably won’t matter against the Cougars, who went to their third stringer, Marshall Lobbestael, after losing starter Kevin Lopina and backup Gary Rogers to injury in their win over Jerry Glanville’s Portland State team.