Opening Line Report - Week 7
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Michigan and Oklahoma were knocked from their undefeated perches last week, and both saw early betting action go against them for their upcoming conference tilts.
In our Week 7 opening line report, we cover a trio of Saturday’s games, including the ones involving the Wolverines and Sooners, in addition to a showdown in the SEC West.
Michigan (-6.5) at Indiana
Michigan, off its 14-10 loss at home to Michigan State, opened -7.5 at Indiana, before early underdog action from sharp players pushed the spread down to -5.5 by Monday morning. Since then, there’s been buyback on Michigan, with the line settling at -6.5 at most shops Monday evening.
The Hoosiers haven’t beaten the Wolverines since 1987, but they’ve covered the spread in four of the last six meetings.
Situational handicappers may be perplexed by the spot Michigan finds itself this week. Is this a bounce-back scenario since they just loss to the Spartans, or a look-ahead spot with Penn State coming up next?
“I’m not sure they’re looking ahead to anybody after the game they just had last Saturday,” said Chris Andrews, sports book director at the South Point.
Andrews, however, is dubious on Michigan, as many of the Ann Arbor faithful also seem to be this week.
“Michigan’s a mystery still,” Andrews said. “We’re halfway through the season, and their offense isn’t that good, and they had one returning starter on defense, so there were a lot of question marks on the defensive side of the ball.”
College football pundits and gamblers alike may have been too soon to anoint Jim Harbaugh.
“Harbaugh was in the conversation with Urban Meyer and Nick Saban as one of the great college coaches, but he doesn’t have that great a resume at Michigan,” Andrews said. “He had a great resume at Stanford, he had a great resume at the 49ers, but Michigan is a little bit spotty still. Guys have given him the benefit of the doubt. Now all of a sudden they’re not giving him the benefit of the doubt."
That sentimental shift may provide an opportunity for bettors.
“If you believe in the buy low/sell high theory, you might get a chance to buy low right now on Michigan,” Andrews said.
But Andrews isn’t surprised by the early money on the dog.
“Indiana’s been a wiseguy side in a lot of games this year, and they were a little bit last year, too,” he said. “So I know the wiseguys have a strong opinion on Indiana.”
Oklahoma (-8 ) vs. Texas
Oklahoma opened -8 at the Wynn on Sunday, the line inching down to -7.5 on Monday.
Texas has covered four straight in this series, but Saturday’s spread is more manageable for the favored Sooners, who have been asked to lay between 11.5 and 16.5 points vs. the Longhorns in each of those four meetings.
It’s typically not easy for a national championship contender to recover from its first loss of the season, but Andrews expects a big effort from Oklahoma this weekend.
“They did not look good last week (in the 38-31 loss to Iowa State), particularly on defense,” Andrews said. “They missed so many tackles. I had Iowa State earmarked as a big improver this year, but they beat ‘em. It was no fluke, Iowa State beat ‘em. But I think Oklahoma responds this week.”
With Tom Herman taking over, Texas was a sexy pick ahead of the season, but the Longhorns are a middling 3-2 with a motivated Oklahoma squad up next.
“At the beginning of the year, I thought Texas was bet-against team, I thought they were a little overrated,” Andrews said. “You had Tom Herman coming in, and he’s another guy they were ready to put in the Hall of Fame with a very small resume. .. A lot of guys got ahead of themselves on Texas.”
Auburn (-6.5) at LSU
Underdog bettors pounced on the opening line of LSU +8, betting it down past the key number 7 to 6.5. The spread got bounced between 6.5 and 7 from there.
While LSU got a much-needed win against Florida on Saturday, albeit in unimpressive fashion, Auburn continues to roll along, somewhat under the radar, its only loss coming to No. 2 Clemson, 14-6.
“I’ve been pro-Auburn this year. They had the early loss to Clemson, and a lot of guys had pretty much written them off after that, and I remember telling people , ‘I don’t think that’s such a terrible loss,’” Andrews said.
How could it have been construed as such? Clemson has followed its national championship season by getting off to a 6-0 start this season, including wins at Louisville and at Virginia Tech, in addition to Auburn.
“Their offense the last couple of years has not been that good, but they have played some great defense, even against Clemson,” Andrews continued, “They kind of got shuffled back after that (loss to Clemson), but they’re slowly getting back into the national picture, and they’re deserving of being in the national picture.”
As for LSU’s dull 17-16 win over Florida?
“I was just not that impressed with LSU,” Andrews said. “I give them credit for coming off the mat after that loss at home to Troy, but I just didn’t find them all that compelling, all that efficient. They were awfully lucky to win.” Andrews added of this week’s matchup, “You can’t bet momentum in the pros, but you can bet momentum in college, and you’ve got the momentum behind Auburn right now. They’re playing some pretty good football."
College Football Opening Line Report Week 7
By Adam Burke
Byangthebook.com
A new set of college football betting odds has hit the board for Week 7 and there are a lot of games that are already on the move. At this stage of the game, there are a lot of injuries to consider. Some are well-publicized and others are not. With 130 FBS teams, it can be hard to stay up on the latest. In an ideal world, the oddsmakers will post all of their opening numbers with these injuries factored in, but that is never a guarantee, since things pop up all the time.
Early in the week, we’ve got people grabbing numbers. They’ll look to play back or buy out if they need to, but initial moves are always about the numbers of the bettors against the numbers of the oddsmakers. That cat-and-mouse game on Sundays is always worth following, even if you don’t feel equipped to bet the games. It is always nice to see what the numbers guys say and then dive in more throughout the week.
Ultimately, that’s what we’re doing with the Opening Line Report. We’re looking at the numbers and the initial hits to see where these lines may go throughout the week.
With Week 7 sides and totals posted, here is the Opening Line Report:
Washington State (-13, 54) at Cal – In the awful spot department, the Washington State Cougars go to Berkeley to battle the Cal Golden Bears in Week 7. It is a Friday night affair, so it will be a short week for both teams, but the Cougars will have to leave Pullman a day earlier than they are accustomed to with some Friday Night Lights action. The spot is a consideration, but so are the power ratings, and this number has inched down from the -14 opener at Bookmaker to the 13 range. Bovada still has 14 on the public darling Cougars, but most of the market has settled in below that key number. Expect to see a sharp vs. public split here.
Toledo (-7.5, 62) at Central Michigan – The Rockets lost a premier playmaker in Cody Thompson to a broken leg last week, but it may simply be the close 20-15 win over Eastern Michigan that has the market backing the Directional Michigan dog in this one. Central Michigan has gotten good quarterback play from Michigan transfer Shane Morris, which is also a contributing factor to this number sliding down. Keep in mind that a move from 10 to 7.5 isn’t all that significant early in the week. It will take a lot more sharp investment to push through 7, so if that happens, you know what is going on.
UConn at Temple (-10, 62) – We actually saw a 9.5 hit the board at BetOnline, as the Huskies are the preferred side against the Owls. That shouldn’t surprise you, since nobody is comfortable with Temple laying double digits, even if they did blow out East Carolina last week. That number also went against Temple last week, so this move falls in line with the Temple fade that we have seen for a little while. The number was 12.5 at open, but those were gobbled up quickly. Once again, a move from 12.5 to 10 doesn’t mean a ton, so keep that context in mind.
Virginia (-4, 54.5) at North Carolina – It is hard to fully grasp how much the North Carolina injury report hurts the Tar Heels. Over a dozen players have been lost to season-ending injuries already and the list seems to grow with each passing week. Seeing Virginia as a road favorite means a lot of double takes, but the Tar Heels are just ravaged by injury. Money has been one-sided here on the Cavaliers and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line keep rising if we get more UNC injury announcements.
Rutgers at Illinois (-2, 48.5) – When Rutgers is taking money in a 55/45 game on the road, that is very significant. There aren’t many Illinois believers out there, and with good reason, since that offense is atrocious. Illinois opened -3 -115 at Bookmaker, but the -3s are almost all gone at this point. Illinois’s home field probably isn’t a full three, but we have to think about this move as Rutgers being power-rated above Illinois, which just isn’t good for the Illini.
Texas Tech at West Virginia (-3.5, 78) – A lot of points are in store for this Morgantown Matinee on Saturday. This line move is stunning. Texas Tech has been a rapid riser in power ratings, but to see this number suggesting that this game is a pick ‘em on a neutral is surprising. This number opened -7 on the BetOnline numbers. It opened -6 at Bookmaker, hit -4.5, came back up, then plummeted again. With 4 being such a key number, this is a pretty notable move. The total is very high, so the value of a move from -6 to -4 or -3.5 isn’t as big as it would be in a low-scoring game, but it is very apparent that the Red Raiders are a sharp side early in the week.
Middle Tennessee (-4.5, 56) at UAB – The Blazers scored a last-second win over Louisiana Tech and are halfway to bowl eligibility with a lot of season left to play. Middle Tennessee State was highly rated coming into the season, but a Brent Stockstill injury and some poor performances have changed the narrative a bit. This line is all over the map this week. Pinnacle and Matchbook are at -3, which would imply that UAB is the sharper side. Bookmaker is at 4.5, with DSI at 5. Public money generally doesn’t come in early in the week and generally wouldn’t be interested in this game, so I’m not sure what is going on in the market. We’ll have to watch this line closely as the week goes along to get some more intel.
UNLV at Air Force (-7.5, 68.5) – UNLV has been a little bit of a popular pick among sharp bettors this season. Last week, the Runnin’ Rebels were run over by San Diego State, as the Aztecs gave a pretty rude reminder of how good they can be. The market is undeterred with UNLV’s performance and is backing the Rebs in what looks like a high-scoring affair in Colorado Springs. Again, a move from -10 to -7.5 isn’t all that significant, but numbers guys probably have this line around a touchdown or lower to be interested in moving it past some non-key numbers.
Appalachian State (-13, 48.5) at Idaho – This is a pretty significant move, though it only crossed through a pseudo key number of 11. Appalachian State is taking on money for a long road trip up to the Kibbie Dome. The Mountaineers were a bit of a misleading cover last week. They were outgained 532-425 but benefited from six interceptions to cover double digits. This one seems like a numbers grab more than a true position.
UCLA at Arizona (-1.5, 79) – Maybe it’s just my East Coast Bias, but I can’t get a good read on either UCLA or Arizona. This line opened a pick ‘em, but the market bumped it to Arizona -1.5, where it opened at most books. The total has gone up quickly for this one, as nobody believes in UCLA’s defense and Josh Rosen should have some windows in the 3-3-5 Wildcats defense. This looks like a public vs. sharp game, with the early indications being that UCLA will be the public side and Arizona will be the sharper side.
Baylor at Oklahoma State (-25.5, 70.5) – Oklahoma State is taking on some early-week sharp money, which isn’t great for bookmakers, who can expect to see Cowboys public money as well. Baylor has been better lately, but the numbers guys were happy to hop into the market and grab what they perceived to be line value on the chalky hosts.
Navy at Memphis (-4, 75) – This is a very difficult handicap. Memphis just hung a 70-spot on UConn. Navy runs a triple-option that Memphis will probably have issues defending. So far, the market has sided with the service academy to drive down the opener of 5.5 to 4. Memphis allowed 447 rushing yards in this meeting last year and lost 42-28, so I would assume that a bit of recency bias also factored into the early move here.
New Mexico State (-8, 59.5) at Georgia Southern – Tyson Summers is running the Georgia Southern program into the ground since Willie Fritz left for Tulane. New Mexico State is a team on the rise. Despite a miserable travel spot with a trek to North Carolina and then back before going to Atlanta, unless the Aggies stayed on the Eastern side of the U.S., the road team is taking on money here. We saw this number push right on through the key number of 7 and it probably isn’t done yet.
UTSA (-2.5, 60) at North Texas – The Mean Green are getting a bit of love here as Seth Littrell has been doing a fine job with the team from Denton. We’ve seen this one move from -4.5 down below the key number of 3 in some shops, which is a very significant early-week move. Keep in mind that MAC, Sun Belt, and Conference USA games aren’t drawing large betting handles, so books cannot rely on public action to balance the counts. That’s why we often see moves of this magnitude in the lower Group of Five when sharp sides have announced themselves.
Texas A&M at Florida (-3, 52.5) – The situation at Florida is not good. More players are either suspended or injured and Texas A&M is a team that has been on the rise in recent weeks as Kevin Sumlin now seems a bit safer than he was after the UCLA loss. The Aggies gave it a good run against Alabama and now look to go to Gainesville and pull what amounts to a mini upset. I don’t think this line is done moving and A&M could very well be a sharp and public side this week.
Michigan State (-4, 40) at Minnesota – Fresh off of a win over Michigan, it seems like the oddsmakers built too much of a letdown spot in the line for Sparty. Minnesota has had some injury woes throughout the season, so that may be part of the equation as well, but seeing Sparty take early-week money in a prototypical letdown spot is telling to me. I’d expect this number to stay where it is, but public bettors will be on Sparty since they are “back”, with a spot in the top 25.
NCAAF Opening Line Report: Week 7
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
We’re ostensibly at the halfway point of the college football season, and heading into Week 7, there’s an unbeaten team in the Pac-12 making a lot of noise. But not necessarily the team everyone thought would be a noisemaker. Covers checks in on the opening lines and a boatload of early movement for a quartet of contests, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
No. 9 Washington State Cougars at California Golden Bears (+12.5)
Washington State is unbeaten, already taking down previously perfect Southern California in Week 5, then ripping another good Pac-12 outfit in Week 6. The Cougars (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) went to Oregon as a 1.5-point favorite and hammered the Ducks 33-10.
California (3-3 SU and ATS) got out of the gate with three consecutive SU victories, then had a good showing in a home loss to USC. But the Golden Bears haven’t been able to keep up the past two weeks, losing at Oregon 45-24 as a 17-point underdog, then 38-7 at Washington catching 28.5 points.
“Washington State’s thrashing of Oregon last weekend was one of the biggest college winners of the weekend for the public,” Mason said. “This week, the early bettors jumped all over the opener of Cougars -12.5, moving the number quickly up to 14.5. It’s looking like the house will be rooting against Washington State again. Just 32 percent of the early bettors are taking the points.”
At one point, the line reached 16, before settling back to 14.5 late Sunday night.
No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+10.5)
Oklahoma is still looking for the license plate of the bus it got hit by Saturday. The Sooners (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) had a bye week to prepare for Iowa State and led the Cyclones by 14 on three occasions in the first half, yet lost 38-31 as a massive 31-point home favorite.
Texas (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) looks to be pulling itself together after a season-opening home loss to Maryland. The Longhorns went on the road in Week 5 and beat that same Iowa State squad, then outlasted Kansas State in Week 6 with a 40-34 overtime victory to push as 6-point faves.
“It seems like the early bettors are off of the Oklahoma bandwagon, as 64 percent of them are counting on Texas to cover their fifth straight Red River Rivalry,” Mason said.
Indeed, the Sooners opened -10.5 in this neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl, and they were bet down to 7.5 in a matter of minutes.
No. 23 Utah Utes at No. 13 Southern California Trojans (-13)
Southern Cal was supposed to be the Pac-12 darling, and may still be, but currently is looking up at aforementioned Washington State, along with Washington. The Trojans (5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS) bounced back from the loss to Wazzoo by rolling Oregon State 38-10 Saturday as a hefty 32.5-point home fave.
Utah had hoped to head to SoCal with a perfect record, but Stanford had other plans in Week 6. The Utes (4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) went off as 3-point home pups and the oddsmakers got it just right, as Utah lost 23-20.
“With a 1-5 ATS record, USC has not been kind to its loyal bettors this season. Utah, on the other hand, has been a covering machine,” Mason said. “This game isn’t getting a ton of early action, but 60 percent of the bettors so far are counting on another Utes cover.”
Those early wagers took the line from USC -13 to -11.5, but it rebounded to 13.5 late Sunday night.
No. 13 Auburn Tigers at Louisiana State Tigers (+4)
Auburn’s only loss this season was a more-than-respectable showing at Clemson in a 14-6 Week 2 setback getting 6 points. The Tigers (5-1 SU, 2-2-2 ATS) have won four in a row since then, including a 44-23 victory over Missouri on Saturday as a 21-point chalk.
Louisiana State suffered arguably the biggest upset of the season in Week 5, falling to Troy 24-21 as a 20.5-point favorite. But LSU (4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) rebounded by squeaking past Florida 17-16 in Week 6 as a 1.5-point fave.
“Tons of movement on this one from the get-go, as Auburn moved from 4-point road chalk all the way to 9-point favorites,” Mason said. “This aggressive line move makes perfect sense considering that Auburn is taking on more early bets than any other team on the college betting board. Only 16 percent of early bettors believe that LSU can cover for just the second time this season.”
That said, LSU money started showing by mid-evening Sunday, drawing the line back down to Auburn -6.5.