College Football Betting News and Notes Wednesday, November 20

Northern Illinois at Toledo: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets (+2.5, OFF)

Northern Illinois can clinch at least a share of the Mid-American Conference West Division title with a victory Wednesday against host Toledo and assure the No. 21 Huskies a fourth consecutive trip to the MAC championship game. A win by the Rockets in the Glass Bowl would forge a three-way tie for the division lead with Ball State. The No. 1 task for Toledo will be finding a way to stop Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch, who upped his Heisman Trophy stock by passing for 345 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 123 yards and two scores in a 48-27 victory last week against Ball State.

Lynch established an FBS record for rushing yards by a quarterback earlier this season when he totaled 316 yards in a 38-17 victory against Central Michigan. Last season against Toledo, Lynch threw for a career-best 407 yards and ran for 162 in the 31-24 victory. The Rockets are riding a five-game winning streak, despite giving up 27 fourth-quarter points in 51-41 victory last week against Buffalo, averaging 45.2 points in that span.

LINE: Toledo opened at +2 home dogs and have been bet to +2.5. The total is currently OFF.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high 30s with an 8 mph wind blowing towards the North end zone.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-0, 6-0 MAC): One of the surprises for the Huskies this season has been the emergence of running back Cameron Stingily. He was limited to four appearances on special teams last season and one rushing attempt after switching to running back in the offseason and figured to be
buried behind Akeem Daniels and Keith Harris Jr. on the depth chart. But Daniels has been sidelined all season with a toe injury and Harris suffered a season-ending ankle injury in October, opening the door for Stingily to rush for 812 yards and nine touchdowns this season - second only to Lynch.

ABOUT TOLEDO (7-3, 5-1): The Rockets have been dealing with their own injuries as running back as David Fluellen, second in the MAC with 133.4 rushing
yards per game, has missed the last two contests with a leg injury and his status against Northern Illinois in uncertain. Fluellen has been replaced by freshman Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 186 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo, his fourth straight game with more than 100 yards on the ground. Fluellen’s pass-catching ability is also missed as he’s third on the team with 25 receptions.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Huskies last six games after rushing for more than 200 yards in the previous game.
* Under i 8-2 in the Rockets last 10 versus a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Rockets are 25-5 in MAC play over the past four years with three losses coming against Northern Illinois.

2. The Huskies have won 14 consecutive road games, the longest active streak in the FBS after Oregon's 19-game streak ended Nov. 7 against Stanford.

3. Northern Illinois CB Sean Evans, who started the first four games before suffering a knee injury, is expected to return against Toledo.

NCAAF Week 13

Northern Illinois won last three games with Toledo by 35-3-7 points, as Huskies scored 53 ppg in games that had average total of 91. Huskies are 10-0, covering last four games, with pair of 21-point wins closest of the four wins. NIU has two road wins vs Big Dozen teams (Iowa/Purdue) so road isn't a problem for them- they've also run ball for 336 ypg last four games. Underdogs covered eight of last 11 series games. Toledo won its last five games, scoring 45+ points, running ball for 321+ yards in four of the five- they've won all five home games this season. Interesting game. Rockets covered three of four games as an underdog this season.

Armadillosports.com

MAC Game of the Week: Northern Illinois at Toledo
Chuckedel.com

The Huskies will visit the Glass Bowl this week to take on the Rockets, with both teams coming off huge wins in the MAC West. NIU was able to dispatch Ball State, scoring 21 points at the end of the game to cover the spread and push the total over, while the Rockets found lots of room to run even without David Fluellen against Buffalo in a shoot out. This game will determine if NIU is playing in the MAC title game, or whether Toledo has shot at getting into it.

When NIU has the ball:

Jordan Lynch continues to dominate every defense he plays in the MAC, last week producing 468 yards of offense and four touchdowns. He currently ranks fourth in the nation in runs of ten yards or more (all players, not just QBs), and is ranked 22nd in completion percentage at 65.5%. Against Ball State he hit 81% of his passes as the Huskies exploited both the short passing game as well as connecting on several big plays. Lynch hit Da'Ron Brown on eight passes, where the Junior racked up 209 yards. Brown provides the deep play threat the Huskies offense needed. Prior to last week, no Husky had been averaging over 15 yards per catch, there are now two players. Cameron Stingily was not used very often last week, and averaged just four yards per carry. He had no negative runs though, thanks in large part to an offensive line that has allowed just 4.5% of their snaps to be run for loss this year. The line also has held up well in pass protection, allowing opponents to hurry or sack the QBs on just 5.5% of their pass attempts.

Toledo's defense will likely prove to be a tougher test for Lynch and company though, despite allowing Buffalo to total up 41 points. The Rockets have been tough against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and only allowing Florida and Navy to average better than four yards per carry. They've made a tackle for loss on 8.9% of their opponents plays, averaging 6.5 per game. Senior Jayrone Elliott has been the most disruptive player for Toledo this season, with 10.5 tackles for loss amongst his 60 total stops. Elliott has seven sacks along with three QB hurries and a pair of passes defended; he's also caused five fumbles this season. The passing defense though has been the weakness, where they've allowed the opposition to average 60% completion rates and 8.3 yards per attempt. 23.3% of their passes go for more than 15 yards. The secondary has only defended 16 passes this year, despite generating a lot of pressure (32 sacks, 19 hurries, 16.5% hurry rate). Chaz Whittaker is the best secondary player the team has, leading with a pair of interceptions and a pair of passes defended.

When Toledo has the ball:

The question for the Rockets, as it has been so often this season, si will David Fluellen play? They found out late last week that he woulnd't be able to go against Buffalo, and is uncertain for this week. Despite appearing in only eight games, Fluellen still has over 1000 yards already. Fluellen is an amazing talent, and a game changer when available. Luckily they have an excellent second option in Kareem Hunt. Hunt the last four weeks has rushed for over one hundred yards in each contest, and has six touchdowns. Last week he was able to average six yards per carry on thirty-one attempts. Hunt has 22 runs of ten yards or more so far this season as well. The consistency of the running game has driven the Toledo offense as it has averaged 36.7 yards per drive, and has gone three and out on just 18.1% of their drives. The passing game has turned around from a mid season funk, with Terrance Owens compelting 65.6% of his passes for 10.9 yards per attempt the last three weeks. He also has not thrown an interception in the last three games whiel tossing eight touchdowns. The bog plays need to continue, and so that means a continuing diet of hitting Bernard Reedy, who has 15 catches of fifteen yards or more, with the last three weeks averaging more than twenty yards per catch.

The Huskies on defense this season have been solid but not spectacular. They allow a 36.5% conversion rate on third downs, and a 93% in the redzone. The run defense has been uneven, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry overall but more than four yards per carry in four of their contests, including a five yards per attempt effort last week against Ball State. In large part its because of a lack of negative plays created, just 6.9% of opponents plays have been negative this season. LB Jamaal Bass leads the team with 65 tackles, but only 3.5 of them are for loss. The secondary though has been outstanding, allowing just 52.5% of passes to be completed for just seven yards per attempt. The unit is lead by senior Jimmie Ward, a ball hawking safety who has five interceptions and 64 tackles.

What's our take:

Both teams need this win, and the MACtion has been exciting all season in the mid week tilts. Both of these teams can put up points, NIU is a more dynamic team, but this game should stay close thanks to the Huskies troubles against the run. Toledo's defense though as all teams have against Jordan Lynch, especially now that he's found his down field passing game. Expect a shootout ending with NIU staying alive for the BCS chase.

Northern Illinois at Toledo
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Matchup: Northern Illinois at Toledo
Venue: Glass Bowl (FieldTurf) from Toledo, Ohio
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2013
Time/TV: 8:00 pm. ET - ESPN2
Line: Northern Illinois -2½, Over/Under 73
Last Meeting: 2012, Northern Illinois (-10) 31 vs. Toledo 24

Northern Illinois can lock up the MAC West and earn an invite back to the MAC Championship Game with a win tonight at the Glass Bowl. Standing in the Huskies’ way is a Toledo squad that can create a three-way tie atop the MAC West standings with a win over NIU.

As of early this morning, most books had Northern Illinois (10-0 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) favored by 2½ or three points with a total of 72½. The Rockets are +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120). For first-half wagers, NIU is favored by one-half point (even-money bet) with a total of 35 ½.

Toledo (7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) has won five in a row, going 4-1 ATS over that span. The Rockets raced out to a 31-0 halftime lead against Buffalo last Tuesday night. They were still able to hook up their backers as 5.5-point home favorites but allowed the Bulls back into the game before winning by a 51-41 score.

Terrance Owens threw for 228 yards and two TDs without an interception while also rushing for a score. With leading rusher David Fluellen was out for a second straight game, freshman Kareem Hunt responded by rushing for 186 yards and one TD. Bernard Reedy had three receptions for 149 yards and two scores.

For the season, Owens has 1,837 passing yards with a 13/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The tall southpaw has also run for a pair of scores. His favorite target is Reedy, who has hauled in 55 receptions for 736 yards and six touchdowns.

Fluellen has been one of the nation’s top RBs this year, but he will most likely miss a third consecutive game tonight. Fluellen has run for 1,060 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 7.0 yards per carry.

But gambler shouldn’t downgrade Toledo’s offense on account of Fluellen’s absence. That’s because Hunt as emerged as a beast. The freshman sensation has rushed for 672 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.8 YPC.

NIU is led by senior QB Jordan Lynch, the 2012 MAC Offensive Player of the Year who is on his way to earning that same honor again. Lynch has led the Huskies to 10 consecutive wins by rushing for 1,273 yards and 15 TDs.

Lynch has completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 2,216 yards with a 21/5 TD-INT ratio. Tommylee Lewis and Da’Ron Brown are Lynch’s favorite targets. Lewis is possession receiver with 74 grabs for 623 yards and three TDs, while Brown stretches the field with 41 receptions for 689 yards and nine scores.

Cameron Stingily has rushed 148 times for 812 yards and nine TDs. Stingily is averaging 5.5 YPC for the Huskies.

NIU owns a 4-1 spread record as a road favorite this season and is 8-2 ATS in such spots going back to last season. Meanwhile, Toledo has compiled a 2-1-1 spread record in four games as an underdog this year.

However, this is the first home ‘dog spot for the Rockets in 2013. They are 10-5 ATS as home ‘dogs going back to 2003 and 1-0 under second-year head coach Matt Campell.

The ‘over’ is 7-3 overall for NIU, 4-2 in its road assignments. The Huskies have seen their games average 69.8 combined points per game.

The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for Toledo, but the ‘over’ is 4-1 in its home games. The ‘over’ has cashed in four of the Rockets’ last five games. They have seen their games combine for an average score of 62.7 PPG.

When these MAC adversaries met in Dekalb last season, No. Illinois won a 31-24 decision but failed to cover the number as a 10-point home favorite. Lynch threw for 407 yards and rushed for 162 on 30 carries. He had three TD passes and one interception.

Owens threw for 265 yards but was intercepted three times. Fluellen rushed for 79 yards and one TD, while Reedy finished with 10 catches for 131 yards.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.