BYU at TCU: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs (-13.5, 56)
The Cougars and Horned Frogs keep their old Mountain West Conference rivalry alive, despite the fact that BYU is rolling solo as an independent and TCU is heading to the Big 12 or the Big East... errr, somewhere next season.
"I consider this like a conference game, we've played BYU for so long,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson told the Star-Telegram. “I'd rather not play a non-conference game in the middle of the season but this is the only time we could work it out."
The respective religious schools collide on the grand stage that is Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas Friday night.
LINE MOVES
The Horned Frogs opened as 11.5-point favorites, and that spread has been bet up to 13.5 – just below the key number of two touchdowns. The total opened at 56 points and has remained fairly steady.
DO OVER
Brigham Young has been looking forward to erasing a 31-3 beating from TCU since it walked off the field at Amon G. Carter Stadium last October.
The Cougars were demolished in that game, especially quarterback Jake Heaps, who threw two interceptions and was sacked three times. BYU put up only 14 yards of offense in the first half of that loss, finishing with 147 total yards on the day.
Heaps, who has continued to struggle, has been replaced by junior passer Riley Nelson, who head coach Bronco Mendenhall announced as the team’s starter again this week.
"I see the game going, and the rotation going, as it has been going. I like the direction of our team offensively," Mendenhall told the Salt Lake Tribune. "Again, if the team were to struggle, and if we weren’t able to move the ball and score points, Jake would come in and perform. But I like the chance for the quarterbacks to get into rhythm and to play, and until proven otherwise, we will go down the same road we have been traveling, with Riley."
Nelson has been impressive since taking over under center. He’s completed almost 62 percent of his passes, thrown for 11 touchdowns (to just three interceptions), and, since becoming the No. 1 three games ago, has yet to have a three-and-out, with BYU punting only twice in possessions started with Nelson at QB.
Nelson is also a dangerous option on the ground, rushing for 284 yards, including 62 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 56-3 beating of FCS Idaho State.
FROGGY STYLE
Texas Christian flexed its offensive muscle with a 69-0 thumping of New Mexico last weekend, putting up over 500 total yards of offense in the win.
The Horned Frogs rank eighth in the country in scoring, averaging almost 44 points a game. In the case of TCU, it’s true that speed kills. It boasts the 18th-best rushing attack in the nation and is tied for 11th for most yards per play with 6.6.
"With the style of offense that they run and the kind of athletes that they have, it's one of those games where you have to do your assignment," BYU senior linebacker Jordan Pendleton told the Daily Herald. "Playing Idaho State you could maybe screw up once or twice and someone else would make the play but against these guys your can't.”
The TCU rushing attack is anchored by running backs Waymon James and Matthew Tucker. James, the speedier of the two, is fourth in the MWC with 450 yards on the ground, while Tucker, the smash-mouth short-yardage back, is third in the league in touchdowns, rumbling for seven scores this season.
On the wings, TCU has perhaps the fastest receiving corps in college football. Josh Boyce, who runs a 10.4 100-meter dash, has reeled in 604 yards receiving and five TDs. His partner, Skye Dawson, is the current MWC 100-meter champ at a time of 10.2 seconds and has grabbed 27 balls for 268 yards and three scores.
Sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall is second in the conference in passing, with 1,566 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. He threw for just 175 yards and two scores in the blowout over the Lobos last week.
NOT FORT WORTH IT
Despite the prestige of playing in one of the greatest stadiums on the planet, TCU isn’t crazy about having a home game moved to Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The Horned Frogs are insisting that this be their final game played inside Jerry Jones’ cutting-edge setting.
"I'd have 40,000 in purple instead of it being 50-50," Patterson told reporters about playing in Arlington. "That's why we won't play people in the Big 12 over at Cowboys Stadium, if I get any say. Because I'd rather have home-field advantage. As soon as you go into Cowboys Stadium you no longer have home-field advantage."
Last season, the Horned Frogs drew 46,138 fans to Cowboys Stadium for their season opener with Oregon State, winning 30-21 but failing to cover as 13.5-point chalk. Brigham Young took on Oklahoma at Cowboys Stadium in 2009, shocking the Sooners 14-13 as a 22.5-point pup in front of 75,437 fans.
Trends
* Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdog.
* Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 games as underdogs.
* Over is 5-1 in Horned Frogs last six games as favorites.
BYU at TCU Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Texas Christian (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) hasn’t fared well on Fridays this season, suffering both of its losses in Friday night games. The Horned Frogs lost their season opener 50-48 at Baylor and then went down at home to SMU in overtime on Sept. 30.
TCU will make its third and final Friday night appearance this week at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington against Brigham Young. Most books are listing the Horned Frogs as 13-point favorites with a total of 56. Gamblers can take the Cougars to win outright for a plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).
Gary Patterson’s team is coming off a 69-0 demolition of New Mexico as a 44½-point home favorite. The Horned Frogs limited UNM’s offense to just 85 total yards. QB Casey Paschall threw two touchdown passes and Matt Brown rushed for a pair of scores in the run-away-and-hide triumph.
BYU (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) has quietly won five in a row since an embarrassing blowout loss to arch-rival Utah at home. The Cougars have taken the cash in back-to-back outings, including last week’s 56-3 win over Idaho St. as 41½-point home favorites.
Riley Nelson has been the catalyst since replacing Jake Heaps as the starting QB. Nelson has 11 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions. He had three scoring strikes and wasn’t intercepted last week.
Two weeks ago, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad went to Corvallis and emerged with a 38-28 win over Oregon St. as a three-point underdog. Nelson torched the Beavers for 217 passing yards and three TDs and also had a team-high 87 yards on the ground.
Paschall, TCU’s sophomore signal caller, has done an excellent job in replacing Andy Dalton. He has completed 69.7 percent of his throws for 1,566 yards with a stellar 17/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.
TCU is 3-1 SU at home this year, 2-2 ATS.
TCU has won three in a row against BYU, but the Cougars covered the spread in last year’s 31-3 home loss as 30-point underdogs. The Horned Frogs took the money in the two previous meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight meetings between these schools.
BYU is 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. During Mendenhall’s seven-year tenure, the Cougars have posted a 7-6-1 spread record as a road underdog. Meanwhile, TCU owns a 32-20 ATS mark as a home ‘chalk’ under Patterson.
The ‘over’ is 6-1 overall for TCU. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for BYU, but the ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Cougars.
ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Oklahoma St. owns a 30-12-1 spread record when listed as a favorite during Mike Gundy’s tenure. The Cowboys are favored by 14 at home vs. Baylor this week.
Florida has won 18 of the last 21 head-to-head meetings against Georgia.
If I’m a Clemson fan, the one thing that scares me to death this weekend is that Paul Johnson might outclass Dabo Swinney in the coaching department. The Yellow Jackets return home after dropping back-to-back road games, so they’re in desperation mode at home vs. Clemson. Most spots have the Tigers installed as 3½-point favorites. Sportsbook.com has Clemson with an 18/1 number to win the BCS Championship Game.
BYU at TCU Preview
By Marty Otto
Sportsmemo.com
I’m not sure I buy into the notion that BYU’s offense is growing. Sure, since the switch to quarterback Riley Nelson the Cougars have enjoyed a nice string of wins and points (41 ppg). But look at that schedule and you’ll notice it’s littered with abysmal defensive teams; San Jose State and Oregon State are tied for 83rd nationally in scoring defense while Idaho State ranks 105th in the FCS. I’d say this team hasn’t been tested in the slightest and any perceived improvement may be premature.
Granted, TCU’s defense looked as bad as any in the country in its Week 1 loss to Baylor. Quarterback Robert Griffin torched the Horned Frogs and the track speed of the Bears wide receivers exposed a young defense that simply wasn’t ready for the spotlight. But since then they’ve not been nearly as bad as most think. TCU has manhandled the cupcakes on its schedule and held two pretty good offensive teams (SDSU and Air Force) well below their seasonal averages. The lone hiccup since Week 1 was the overtime loss to run-n-shoot based SMU. That wasn’t much of a shocker either as it should be noted the Mustangs were one of only three teams to score more than 20 points against that monster TCU defense in 2010. Adjustments have been made, players are feeling more comfortable in the system and you can really see them flying to the ball and reacting rather than thinking.
BYU doesn’t have the speed at receiver to really trouble TCU here. The quarterback switch and focus on the running game was a bit of a wildcard for the past couple of weeks and perhaps left the opposition in a hole without much tape to study and help prepare. But the mystery factor is now gone. Reading the local papers it sounds as if BYU believes its best chance for success is to keep the football on the ground once again this week. But their system is designed to attack the edge and get perimeter runs and that plays directly into TCU’s strength defensively.
On the flip side I have a hard time believing the BYU defense is going to have success on Friday. They’ve lucked into facing one dimensional offenses nearly every week thus far, whether it’s been predominately run based or pass based teams. But TCU presents real balance and explosiveness with its attack. The Horned Frogs run and pass for well over 200 yards per game and rank eighth nationally in scoring at over 40 points per game. I didn’t think this offense would be very good coming into the season but I was dead wrong as quarterback Casey Pachall has been phenomenal under center and the three back committee of Tucker, Wesley and James has led to a top 20 rushing attack.
Under the lights at home with a national TV audience, I think this is a statement game for TCU.