CFL Betting Recap - Week 16
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites and underdogs went 2-2 straight up in Week 16
Underdogs went 3-1 against the spread in Week 16
Home teams posted a 3-1 record in Week 16
The 'over' and 'under' went 2-2 in Week 16
Team Betting Notes
Hamilton (8-7) narrowed the East Division lead of Toronto (9-6) with a 24-18 win at Alumni Stadium in Guelph, their second consecutive straight-up win against the Argonauts. The Ti-Cats have won back-to-back games for the first time since rattling off three victories in a row from Aug. 2-24.
The Argonauts are now 1-3 ATS in their past four division games, and their loss was their first in seven road games dating back to July 19.
Saskatchewan (10-5) picked up a hard-fought and much-needed win over Edmonton (3-12). The Roughriders have won back-to-back games for the first time since Aug. 17-Sept. 1 when they won three straight. They failed to cover again, however, and are now just 2-8 ATS over the past 10 games after starting the season 5-0 ATS.
The Eskimos saw the 'under' cash for the first time since Sept. 14, and just the fifth time in 15 games.
The BC Lions (9-6) were clipped by Calgary (12-3) in the highest scoring game of the week, a 40-26 win by the Stampeders. The Lions fell to 1-2 SU against the Stamps this season, and they are 0-2-1 ATS against their West Division rivals.
Winnipeg (3-12) snapped a four-game losing streak, dealing Montreal (6-9) a costly setback in the process. The Blue Bombers have won just three games this season, and two of those victories are against the Alouettes.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 17
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The 2013 CFL regular season continues to wind down and we are still waiting to crown a division champion in both the East and the West. Calgary helped stake its claim to the West title with a dominating 40-26 victory over British Columbia last Friday as a 6 ½-point home favorite, but Saskatchewan made the Stampeders wait at least one more week to actually clinch it by knocking off Edmonton 14-9 as a 9 ½-point favorite at home this past Saturday.
In the first of two Monday games in celebration of Canada’s Thanksgiving Holiday, Winnipeg stunned Montreal 34-27 as an 11-point road underdog to prevent the Alouettes from clinching the sixth and final playoff spot. Hamilton then kept its East title hopes alive by beating Toronto 24-18 in a game that closed as a pick.
The following is a brief betting preview for this week’s games in the CFL with the opening pointspread and ‘over/under’ lines provided by 5Dimes.
Friday, Oct. 18
Calgary Stampeders vs. Edmonton Eskimos
Point-spread: Calgary -6
Total: 52
Calgary continues to be the strongest team in the CFL with an offense that is averaging 32.4 points a game to go along with defense that is ranked second in the league in average points allowed (23.3 points). The result is an overall record of 12-3 straight-up and a profitable 10-5 record against the spread. The Stampeders are 5-2 ATS on the road this season.
The Eskimos sunk to 3-12 SU on the year with last week’s loss to Saskatchewan. They have covered in six of their last nine games to improve to 7-8 ATS and the total has gone OVER in 10 of the 15 games. They are just 1-7 both SU and ATS at home this season.
The Stampeders have won the last six meetings SU including a 22-12 road win on Sept. 6 as three-point road favorites. They are now 4-2 ATS over the course of this six-game stretch. The total stayed UNDER the closing 57-point line in that game after going OVER in the previous three meetings.
Saturday, Oct. 19
Toronto Argonauts vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Point-spread: Toronto -6
Total: 53½
The Argonauts had a golden opportunity to lock-up the East heading into their home-and-home series against Hamilton, but the back-to-back losses to their division rival has dropped their overall record to 9-6 SU and 8-7 ATS. Toronto is still a healthy 6-2 ATS on the road despite Monday’s loss.
Winnipeg definitely saved some face with its victory over Montreal and it may have found something to build off over the final three games of the season. It was just its third SU win of the year against 12 losses and it has gone a costly 5-10 ATS. The Blue Bombers are 1-6 both SU and ATS at home this season and the total has gone OVER in three of their last four games.
This will be just the second meeting of the season after the Argonauts came away with a 35-19 win as 3.5-point road favorites in Week 4. Toronto is now 4-1 SU in the last five meetings and 3-2 ATS. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between these two division foes.
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -4
Total: 50½
BC clinched a playoff spot a few weeks back, but it has to be concerned about building some momentum during its final three regular season games. The Lions are 3-3 both SU and ATS in their last six games including a 31-17 loss to Saskatchewan just two weeks ago as three-point home favorites. They are 9-6 SU (7-8 ATS) overall and 3-5 SU and ATS on the road.
The Roughriders have now won their last two games after enduring of four-game skid in the month of September. They trail Calgary by two games in the West at 10-5 SU and they are 7-8 ATS after failing to cover in five of their last six games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games.
These two have already met twice this season with the road team winning both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER in both contests and it has now stayed UNDER in the last seven meetings. The home team has won the previous four games SU and the series is tied 3-3 ATS in the last six games between the two.
Sunday, Oct. 20
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Montreal Alouettes
Point-spread: Hamilton -2
Total: 53
This will be the first game of a home-and-home series between these two East Division rivals over the next two weeks. Hamilton can clinch a home game in the first round of the playoffs with a win on Sunday after posting an 8-7 record both SU and ATS in its first 15 games. It can still win the East and secure a first round bye with a few wins down the stretch and some help from Toronto.
The Alouettes need just one more win to clinch a playoff spot, but they would need to win out just to get their record to .500 on the year. They are 6-9 SU (8-7 ATS) overall and 3-5 SU and ATS at home this year. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games.
These two met back in late September with Hamilton coming away with a 28-26 victory as an eight-point home favorite. The total went OVER the 52-point line and it has now gone OVER in four of the last five meetings. The Tiger-Cats have a 4-1 SU edge in the last five meetings and they are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games between the two.
Week 17 CFL
Calgary (12-3) @ Edmonton (3-12) — Stampeders won first two Battle of Albertas in Weeks 10-11, winning 37-34 (-7.5) at home, then 22-12 (-3) here the next week; Calgary won seven of its last eight games overall, covering last three- they’re 5-2 SU on road, 3-0 as a road favorite this year, with road wins by 8-13-21-10-24 points, and losses in Regina/Vancouver. Overall, Calgary won its last six games over the Eskimos, with four of six by 3 or less points. Edmonton is awful, covering once in six tries as a home underdog, with home losses by 21-14-1-10-12-23 points. Visitor covered six of their last seven games. Five of last seven series games went over the total, as did three of last four games for both teams here.
Toronto (9-6) @ Winnipeg (3-12) — Argos got Ray back at QB last week but lost to Hamilton for second week in row; they’ve actually played better on road, winning six of last seven on foreign soil, while losing last three at home. Toronto is 4-4 in last eight games, despite trailing all eight at the half; they won 35-19 (-3.5) at Winnipeg in first meeting of year back in Week 4, game they led 21-6 at half- Argos are 5-1 in last six series games, winning last three visits to Manitoba by 5-19-16 points. Bombers upset Alouettes in Montreal last week as 11-point dogs; they’ve still given up 38.3 ppg in last four games, but they were +3 in turnovers at Montreal, after being -12 in previous six games. Five of last seven series games went over the total.
British Columbia (9-6) @ Saskatchewan (10-5) — Third meeting in five weeks between these rivals; road team won first two series meetings this year, with Lions (+6.5) winning 24-22 here in Week 13, then Roughriders (+3) snapping 4-game skid with 31-17 road win two weeks ago. Team that won turnover battle won each game. Over last two seasons, teams split their six meetings; last nine series games stayed under the total. Lions allowed 31-40 points in losing last two games; they’re 1-4 as road underdogs this year, with road losses by 12-26-8-14 points- their only cover as a road dog was here four weeks ago. Riders are 3-4 as a home favorite, failing to cover last three home. Five of last six Saskatchewan games stayed under the total.
Hamilton (8-7) @ Montreal (6-9) — TiCats (-8) beat Montreal 28-26 in first series meeting in Week 13, Hamilton’s 4th win in last five series games; they outrushed Als 102-47 as home side won for 9th time in last ten series games, with TiCats losing three of last four played here. Six of last nine series games went over total, with average total in those games, 63.9. Hamilton won three of last four games, covered eight of last ten; they’re 3-4 SU on road, covering last five away games- they covered three of last four games when favored. Alouettes lost four of last six games but covered five of last six as an underdog; they were -3 in turnovers last week, reducing season mark to +13, damn good for a 6-9 team. Over is 8-4 in last dozen Montreal games, 1-4 in last five Hamilton games.
CALGARY (12 - 3) at EDMONTON (3 - 12) - 10/18/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) when playing on a Friday since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-5 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 7-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (9 - 6) at WINNIPEG (3 - 12) - 10/19/2013, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-4 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-3 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 6) at SASKATCHEWAN (10 - 5) - 10/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
8 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON (8 - 7) at MONTREAL (6 - 9) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 7-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 6-3 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games on the road
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Edmonton is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. SASKATCHEWAN
British Columbia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games
HAMILTON vs. MONTREAL
Hamilton is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games
Montreal is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games
Stampeders at Eskimos: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Eskimos (+5.5, 53)
The Calgary Stampeders lead the West Division by four points as they move closer to securing a first-round playoff bye with the division title. On Friday, Calgary visits the struggling Edmonton Eskimos, who are still looking for their first divisional victory. The Stampeders have won three straight, while Edmonton is mired in a three-game losing skid.
Calgary veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn is posting the most efficient season of his 13-year CFL career, with a career-high completion percentage of 67.3 and a passer rating of 102. Starting pivot Drew Tate is almost ready to return full-time for the Stampeders, but Glenn is making it difficult for the team to ignore what he’s done in Tate’s absence. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly has thrown for an impressive 3,589 yards despite being sacked a division-high 48 times, making his case to remain the Eskimos starter beyond this lost season.
ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (12-3): Running back Jon Cornish already has a career-best 1,545 rushing yards with three games remaining. Kick returner Clifton Smith had a massive debut for Calgary last week against the BC Lions, totaling 188 return yards and a receiving touchdown. Defensive linemen Cordarro Law and Charleston Hughes have 25 sacks combined - more than half the team total of 49.
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (3-12): Slotback Adarius Bowman has 27 catches for 357 yards and two touchdowns since returning from a knee injury Sept. 6. Linebacker JC Sherritt remains out indefinitely with a fractured thumb, which he re-injured two weeks ago against the Montreal Alouettes. Edmonton’s offense is fairly one-dimensional, with Reilly leading the team in rushing yards with 581 - 56 more than running back Hugh Charles.
TRENDS:
* Stampeders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Edmonton.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Stampeders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
* Eskimos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Calgary is second in the league with 49 sacks.
2. The Eskimos have allowed a league-worst 135.1 rushing yards per game.
3. Edmonton SB Fred Stamps has a league-leading 1,127 receiving yards.
CFL Saturday: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+6, 53)
Fresh off an upset victory over the Montreal Alouettes, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have another opportunity to play spoiler when they host the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday. A Winnipeg victory would put the Argonauts' hold on the East Division in jeopardy after they dropped two straight games to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Toronto has not lost three consecutive games in 2013 and the return of quarterback Ricky Ray should pay dividends against a porous Blue Bombers' secondary.
Winnipeg has allowed 287.6 passing yards per game, second only to the 300.3 passing yards per game allowed by the Argonauts. Blue Bombers quarterback Max Hall is improving as he gets more comfortable as the starter, throwing for 223 yards and two touchdowns against Montreal. Winnipeg has scored just 313 points - 112 less than the Argonauts, who lead the division with 425.
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (9-6): Ray has completed a remarkable 78 percent of his passes and did not throw an interception until last week in his return from injury. Defensive back Patrick Watkins, tied for the league lead in interceptions with five, missed last week’s game due to a personal matter but should be available Saturday. Wide receiver John Chiles injured his hamstring in practice last Saturday and is questionable to play against the Blue Bombers.
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (3-12): Linebacker Henoc Muamba leads the team with 89 tackles and 17 special teams tackles. Will Ford has emerged as Winnipeg’s top running back, with 108 total yards and two touchdowns last week and 1,370 total combined yards this season. Slotback Clarence Denmark leads the Blue Bombers with 714 receiving yards.
TRENDS:
* Argonauts are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Winnipeg.
* Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Winnipeg.
* Argonauts are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
* Blue Bombers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Blue Bombers have allowed a league-worst seven games of 300 passing yards or more.
2. The Argonauts won the previous meeting in Winnipeg 35-19. These two teams meet again in Toronto next week to close their season series.
3. Toronto is 6-2 on the road; Winnipeg is 1-6 at home.
BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-3.5, 51)
The Saskatchewan Roughriders and BC Lions will battle for position in the West Division playoff picture when they meet at Saskatchewan on Saturday. BC trails the Roughriders by two points for second place in the division, which guarantees a home playoff game, and Saturday's winner will claim the season series and hold the tiebreaker advantage. Saskatchewan has won its last two games, while BC has stumbled to two straight losses.
One of the Lions defeats came at home against the Roughriders, who have looked rejuvenated by the return of running back Kory Sheets. Sheets ran for 80 yards and caught six passes for another 41 yards against BC and added 106 rushing yards last week against the Edmonton Eskimos, suggesting he is still in his early season form. Sheets will be in tough to record those totals again against the Lions, who have limited opponents to an average of 90.5 rushing yards with their stingy defense.
ABOUT THE LIONS (9-6): Slotback Nick Moore is 34 receiving yards away from his first 1,000-yard season. Running back Andrew Harris has 791 rushing yards as part of 1,233 yards from scrimmage and should expect to see more carries while starting quarterback Travis Lulay is still sidelined. Linebacker Adam Bighill’s 80 tackles and eight sacks lead the team.
ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (10-5): Slotback Chris Getzlaf is within 89 receiving yards of tying his career-best mark of 1,071, set in 2011. Sheets has 1,408 rushing yards, second in the league to Calgary running back Jon Cornish. Quarterback Darian Durant has a career-best 29 touchdown passes this season as part of 3,765 passing yards.
TRENDS:
* Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
* Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Lions are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Roughriders last four games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Saskatchewan DB Carlos Thomas was fined an undisclosed amount for launching himself at Edmonton QB Mike Reilly in last week’s game.
2. Lions CB Cord Parks is tied for the league lead in interceptions with five.
3. BC won the previous meeting at Saskatchewan 24-22, but lost 31-17 at home two weeks ago.
Tiger-Cats at Alouettes: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes (+1, 52.5)
Quarterback Troy Smith will likely get his first CFL start as the Montreal Alouettes try to secure the final playoff spot when they host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Sunday. Smith joined the team in August and will replace Josh Neiswander, who has been inconsistent filling in for injured veteran Anthony Calvillo. The Alouettes could be stepping into hostile ground when they take the field Sunday since they are 2-5 at home and Montreal fans are losing patience.
The Tiger-Cats are coming off back-to-back wins against the Toronto Argonauts that pulled them within two points of the East Division lead. Hamilton quarterback Henry Burris has nine 300-yard passing games and leads the league with 4,523 yards, but Hamilton’s defense has impressed as well recently, limiting the high-powered Argonauts offense to 37 points over the last two contests. If the Tiger-Cats can get pressure on the inexperienced Smith, Burris might not need to throw very much to secure a victory.
ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (8-7): Rookies are providing the spark on Hamilton’s offense as running back C.J. Gable was named offensive player of the week after running for 118 yards on 17 carries against Toronto. Wide receiver Luke Tasker has 202 receiving yards and one touchdown in his first three CFL games, giving Burris yet another reliable option in his receiving corps. Defensive lineman Brandon Boudreaux leads the team with six sacks and has one interception.
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (6-9): Smith, a former Heisman Trophy recipient, has completed 15 passes for 100 yards and one touchdown, with two interceptions as well as nine carries for 17 rushing yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns. Linebacker Chip Cox leads Montreal’s defense with 98 tackles and has four interceptions and six sacks. The Alouettes lead the league in interceptions with 22, with defensive back Jerald Brown and cornerback Geoff Tisdale catching five each.
TRENDS:
* Tiger-Cats are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Tiger-Cats are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Montreal.
* Alouettes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 5-2 in Alouettes last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Montreal can also clinch a playoff spot with a Winnipeg Blue Bombers loss Saturday.
2. Hamilton is 6-1 against divisional opponents.
3. The Tiger-Cats and Alouettes complete their season series next week in Guelph, Ont.