Thursday 6/21/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Wednesday’s WNBA, MLB and CFL games.
CFL Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams
League Betting Notes
-- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 1
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 1
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 1
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 1
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 1
Analysis
The opening weekend was a disaster forthe East Division, as all three teams lost their initial game of the season. It was a great weekend for Ottawa (0-0), as they will head into Week 2 in first place as a result of everyone else's misfortune.
Toronto (0-1) lost a rematch of last season's East Final, as Saskatchewan (1-0) exacted a little revenge, 27-19. The Argonauts seemed to have a multitude of chances to get on top and bail out the betting public, but a pick-six late in the game sealed the win for the Roughriders. There were also just 22 total points heading into the fourth quarter, but 'under' (50) needed to chew their nails at the end of the 27-19 victory by the Riders.
Hamilton (0-1) took it on the chin in a 28-14 loss at Calgary (1-0), 28-14. QB Jeremiah Masoli rolled up 344 passing yards while also running for a touchdown, but it wasn't nearly enough for the Ti-Cats. QB Bo Levi Mitchell was up to his normal tricks, tossing for 297 yards and a touchdown while running for 12 yards. The Stamps pass defense isn't likely to be a problem this season, it's just that the Ti-Cats turned to the pass game and abandoned the run after being down late.
The most entertaining game of the weekend was the Thursday night opener in Winnipeg (0-1), as Edmonton (1-0) outlasted the Bombers 33-30. The Blue Bombers were able to hang on for the cover (+7.5), and that was never really in doubt. However, the Esks picked up a touchdown with 1:36 remaining, tying it up with a two-point conversion at 1:22 and then they posted the game-winning field foal from Sean Whyte with just :13 left in regulation. It was a punch in the gut for Winnipeg, and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back in Montreal this weekend.
Team Betting Notes
-- The Alouettes and Blue Bombers were battle in Montreal in a battle between 0-1 teams. The Bombers are 4-1 ATS in their past five following a straight-up loss, and they're 21-8 ATS in their past 29 on the road. In addition, they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight against teams with a losing record.
-- For Montreal, they're 0-11 ATS in their past 11 following a straight up loss, and they're 3-14 ATS in the past 17 overall dating back to last season. On their home turf, they're 5-16 ATS in the past 21 home games and 2-5 ATS in the past seven in June. In this series, Montreal is 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games against Winnipeg. The 'over' has cashed in each of the past five meetings in Montreal, and four of the past five overall.
-- The 'under' is an impressive 23-3 in the past 26 games for Montreal in the month of June.
-- The RedBlacks make their season debut in Week 2 against the Riders. Ottawa has covered in each of their past five outings in June, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven contests on Thursday. The 'under' is 12-4-1 in the past 17 for the RedBlacks, while going 3-1-1 in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark.
-- For Saskatchewan, the under is 10-1 in their past 11 games overall while cashing in each of their past six road outings. The under is also 4-1 in their past five games in the month of June.
-- The Ti-Cats head to Edmonton with a 2-7 ATS mark over their past nine games in the month of June. They're also just 5-12-2 ATS in the past 19 against teams with a winning overall mark. Hamilton has covered five consecutive meetings in Edmonton, while the 'over' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Northern Alberta. The 'under' is 19-5 in the past 24 games in June.
-- The Esks are 5-0 ATS in the past five games following a straight-up victory, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six overall. However, they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five in June, and 6-13 ATS in the past 19 games at home. The 'under' is 9-4 in the past 13 games in June for Edmonton.
-- The Argos look to bounce back in Week 2, but they're just 5-15 ATS in their past 20 following a straight-up loss. They're also 4-9 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning overall mark.
-- The Stamps have posted a 19-9-1 ATS mark in the past 29 following a straight-up wein, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five in June and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six on the road. Calgary travels to meet Toronto in Week 2, and they're 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to Ontario. They're also 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings while the 'under' has hit in five of the past seven in this series.
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CFL Betting Notes - Week 2
David Schwab
Thursday, June 21
Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -3
Total: 51
Game Overview
Saskatchewan will be looking to take down its second-straight opponent from the East coming off last week’s win. Zach Collaros made a successful debut as the Roughriders’ new starting quarterback with 203 yards passing and one touchdown throw, while completing 72 percent of his 25 passing attempts. Jerome Messam was another big offseason addition at running back and he added 72 yards rushing on 21 carries in Friday’s victory.
Credit Saskatchewan’s defense for holding Ricky Ray to just 232 yards through the air and Toronto’s ground game to 54 total yards.
The RedBlacks come off that Week 1 bye fresh and ready to go. They lost to Saskatchewan 31-20 as 2 ½-point home favorites in the opening round of last season’s CFL playoffs with the Roughriders coming over from the West as a crossover team.
Heading into this season, Ottawa has Trevor Harris back as its starting quarterback after missing time in 2017 due to injury. Its offensive line was also banged up heading down the stretch last year. Harris proved he could move the ball down the field through the air with 4,679 yards passing in 15 games.
Betting Trends
-- The road team has won the last four meetings both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in four of the last six matchups in this inter-division clash.
Friday, June 22
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -2
Total: 46 ½
Game Overview
The Blue Bombers turned to Chris Streveler as their starting quarterback for the injured Matt Nichols and he ended the game against Edmonton with three scoring strikes to keep things interesting for all four quarters.
He ended the game with 178 yards passing on 15 completions. Weston Dressler was his top target with four catches for 74 yards and a score and Andrew Harris racked-up 77 yards on 14 rushing attempts.
Montreal had the fewest straight-up victories of any CFL team last season (three) and its opening-day effort against BC could point towards another long campaign in 2018.
The Alouettes scored all 10 of their points in the opening quarter before their offense ground to a halt. Drew Willy got the start at quarterback and he ended the night with 281 yards passing, but just one touchdown pass against one interception.
Betting Trends
-- Winnipeg has covered in six of its last seven road games against the Alouettes with the total going OVER in the last five meetings in Montreal.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -6 ½
Total: 55
Game Overview
CFL fans waiting for the debut of Johnny Manziel as the Tiger-Cats newest quarterback will have to wait a bit longer after starter Jeremiah Masoli put on an aerial show that included 200 yards passing in the first two quarters of last week’s opener. He ended the game with 344 total yards passing, while completing 25 of his 36 attempts, but he did not find the end zone through the air. The Tiger-Cats only gained 56 yards on the ground on 12 rushing attempts.
Edmonton had its hands full with Winnipeg in Week 1 with the only difference in the final score being a field goal as time expired. Mike Reilly led the CFL in both passing yards and touchdown throws last season and he started the 2018 season with 408 yards and one score through the air. He was also the team’s leading rusher last Thursday night with 43 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. Derel Walker hauled in eight receptions for 176 yards as one of eight different players to catch a ball from Reilly in that game.
Betting Trends
-- Hamilton is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five road games against the Eskimos and the total has gone OVER in five of the last six games of this inter-division tilt played in Edmonton.
Saturday, June 23
Calgary Stampeders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -3 ½
Total: 52 ½
Game Overview
Calgary needed all four quarters to get past Hamilton last Saturday in a game that was closer than the final score might indicate. Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 297 total yards with 200 coming in the first half. It was the Stampeders’ ground game that helped generate 19 points in the fourth quarter. Don Jackson and Terry Williams rushed for a combined 117 yards and a score on 18 rushing attempts overall. Calgary did get a solid effort from its defense when it needed it the most.
The Argonauts scored a grand total of five points in the first three quarters of last week’s loss before posting 14 points in the fourth quarter to keep things interesting. Ricky Ray did not have his best night throwing the ball against Saskatchewan, especially in the first half when Toronto was held to 71 yards through the air. He ended the game with 232 yards passing with no touchdown throws against one interception.
Betting Trends
-- Calgary has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall and it is also 5-1 ATS in its last six road games against Toronto. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last seven meetings.
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CFL
Long Sheet
Week 2
Thursday, June 21
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SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 0) at OTTAWA (0-0) - 6/21/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1996.
OTTAWA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in June games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 135-98 ATS (+27.2 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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