Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 6/15/18
How to wager on the CFL for bettors new to the sport
Ashton Grewal
The 2017 Toronto Argos entered the CFL playoffs with a .500 record but ended up lifting the Grey Cup at season's end. They're the perfect example of why the books have a hard time with the sport.
The NBA season is over and there’s still another three months before the NFL campaign kicks off again. If baseball isn’t enough to hold you over until then, let us suggest pro football’s northern cousin – the Canadian Football League.
The CFL season begins Thursday and there are plenty of reasons to get on board. First one is obvious – it’s a more level playing field between the sportsbooks and bettors. Oddsmakers don't spend the same amount of time agonizing over the numbers they hang on CFL games because it's just a fringe sport. There are only nine teams in the league but that doesn’t mean there’s anything predictable about what happens on the field.
Underdogs went a perfect 8-0 against the spread in the first two weeks of the season last year and the defending Grey Cup champion Toronto Argonauts entered the playoffs with a .500 record.
Here’s a quick and dirty betting guide to handicapping the silly ball north of the border.
What are the differences between the NFL and CFL?
There are many but we’ll go over a few of the key ones. Here is a good breakdown of all the rule differences the NFL and CFL for those that are interested.
• Three downs to make 10 yards and gain a new set of downs. Having one less down makes running the ball almost an afterthought in the CFL. Some teams use it effectively but don’t expect any type of 60/40 pass/run ratio.
• Bigger ball, longer and wider field and end zone. Canadian football fields are 10 yards longer, about 15 yards wider, and the end zone is 10 yards deeper.
• 12th man is on the field not in the stands. CFL has 12 players on the field for each team at all times as opposed to the NFL’s 11.
Best betting trends
Bet the underdogs early in the season
Remember that stat about underdogs going 8-0 in the first eight games last season? Well, that’s no fluke. Underdogs in the first four weeks of the season are 115-66-2 against the spread since 2006. That’s a 63.5 percent win rate over a 12-year sample size.
Winnipeg, Hamilton, Saskatchewan and Montreal are your Week 1 underdogs this season. The Blue Bombers and Roughriders are both getting points at home. Winnipeg was among the best ATS bets last season.
More Unders than Overs
You would think the rule differences would mean higher scoring games in the Canadian Football League but the Over has been a sucker’s wager for years. There have been more Overs than Unders in just one CFL season since 2005 and the Under is 508-426-11 (54.4 win rate) in all regular season games in the last 13 years.
Be on the lookout for totals above the 50-point threshold. The Under cashes 56.6 percent of the time over the same time frame with any games with the Over/Under line set at 50 or higher. Three of Week 1’s four games all have totals at or above 50 points.
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2018 East Division Outlook
Scott Rickenbach
West Division Outlook
Hamilton Tiger-Cats – 10 wins projected (6-12 last season)
The big splash in the off-season just recently occurred with Johnny Manziel being signed by Hamilton. The Ticats should prove to be set at the pivot position since they already have Jeremiah Masoli under center. In addition to Manziel bringing some NFL skillsets to the CFL game, the coaching of the Tiger-Cats certainly has influence from south of the border as well. Head coach June Jones is a top offensive mind and now don’t be surprised if the defense shows vast improvement too.
The new defensive coordinator, Jerry Glanville, has an NFL coaching pedigree and will bring improvement on that side of the ball for Hamilton. On the offensive side of the ball coach Jones will have more weapons as Terrence Toliver was lost to injury in the season-opener last year and the Ticats have added through the draft plus were able to get valuable experience with Toliver sitting out last season. This team might start a little slow but once Glanville has the defense rolling and as long as the offensive line jells (guard Ryan Bomben was traded), the Ticats are likely to be the top team in the East.
Montreal Alouettes – 6 wins projected (3-15 last season)
Quarterback duel in Montreal. Veteran Drew Lilly, inexperienced but talented Matt Shiltz, and former NFL QB Josh Freeman means there will be quite a battle at the pivot position for the Alouettes. The concern is that the pivot is literally the “pivotal” position that is so critical in CFL that Montreal is unlikely to do any better than doubling their win total from last season. Of course, that would be an improvement, but this team still has a long way to go. Also, will the late change (just prior to the season) in defensive coordinators hurt the Alouettes?
Montreal has a veteran DC now in Rich Stubler and their defense has talent but underperforms. That said, the late change from Khalil Carter to Stubler does create some concern about a unit that struggled last season. More NFL connections here as Mike Sherman is the new head coach. Of course, he had a lengthy career south of the border but there will be a transition period for certain as he absorbs as much as he can as quick as he can in the CFL game. Long-term things should get better but, barring a miracle, this is most certainly a transitional year for Montreal.
Ottawa RedBlacks – 8 wins projected (8-9-1 last season)
Just as in College Football and the NFL, I like teams that are strong in the trenches. The RedBlacks have a lot of depth on both lines and this is particularly true on the offensive line. The concern for Ottawa is that even though their offense was very productive last season, they are relying on a lot of new incoming personnel at receiver this season. There are most certainly going to be some growing pains. Those growing pains aren’t exclusive to just one side of the ball either.
On the other side, the defense is putting in a new system and has a lot of new personnel. Though the system will likely prove to be a good one for this unit, it will take time for everyone to get on the same page. If the defense jells quickly and the receivers are better than expected, the RedBlacks could challenge Hamilton for top spot in the East. However, if the transition takes longer than expected and there are struggles, Ottawa maybe in a battle just to stay one step ahead of Montreal in the East.
Toronto Argonauts – 9 wins projected (9-9 last season)
Give the Argos credit for finding a way last season but it is still hard to believe they won the Grey Cup after just a 9-9 regular season. Just as last year’s Cinderalla run was highly unlikely, a repeat is even more unlikely as there has only been one of those in the past 20 seasons! Big chances for the coaching staff as Marc Trestman (in just his 2nd year as head coach) has a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator.
This is particularly concerning on the defensive side of the ball because the now-departed Corey Chamblin was regarded as one the top DCs in the league. Don’t be surprised if Toronto’s offense also loses a step (literally) with the departure of speedy receiver DeVier Posey. The Argonauts will struggle to match last season’s 9 win total and I expect little to no post-season noise for them even though they play in the weaker East Division.
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2018 West Division Outlook
Scott Rickenbach
East Division Outlook
BC Lions – 6 wins projected (7-11 last season)
I know it had been about 20 years since the BC Lions missed the playoffs, but last season is, sadly for BC fans, a sign of things to come. Yes, they’ll be back in the near future (Wally Buono is finally hanging it up at the end of this campaign) and a new “growth cycle” can begin.
However, that means no playoffs again this season. Even though BC has done some things to fortify the trenches (their offensive line was major issue last season) the secondary lost key personnel. If you can’t defend the pass you are in trouble in the “pass-friendly” CFL.
Calgary Stampeders – 11 wins projected (13-4-1 last season)
Another disappointing ending to a promising season for Calgary as they lost to the Argonauts in the Grey Cup. This was the 2nd straight season the Stampeders lost the Grey Cup, and this is a motivator but also a challenge for Calgary. It can become a mental hurdle that is tough to overcome. That said, though another successful regular season is likely (particularly if Bo Levi Mitchell is fully healthy) I expect the Stampeders to again fall short of the ultimate prize.
They are loaded again on the offensive side of the ball and no team scored more points than they did last season. However, a lot of changes in the defensive secondary and there is much to prove there.
Edmonton Eskimos – 12 wins projected (12-6 last season)
Edmonton will be right up there again with Winnipeg and Calgary. In last year’s post-season they beat the Blue Bombers but then lost to the Stampeders. This season I expect them to outdo both in the regular season as well as in the post-season (should they meet). They have the top pivot in the league with QB Mike Reilly. Though there have been changes in terms of the wide receiver group he will be working with, there is still a ton of talent in the receiving corps and Reilly still has an excellent group to work with.
Though the defense is undergoing some transition and some veterans have departed, their strength wasn’t on that side of the ball last season. That said, there could be some improvement simply from a hungrier group spurred on by an influx of younger players. Well-coached and hungry from falling just short last season, I look for Edmonton to be the top team in the West this season.
Saskatchewan Roughriders – 9 wins projected (10-8 last season)
Big hopes of course start at the pivot position for Saskatchewan after their big trade with the Tiger-Cats to acquire Zach Collaros. The concern though comes with pass protection and the Roughriders have had some changes along the offensive line. Of course, a revamped offensive line could be unwelcome news for Collaros and Company. The Riders have upgraded in the secondary but playing in the same division with Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg continues to make gaining any headway in the West an uphill battle.
Saskatchewan is solid overall on defense but transitions taking place along the offensive line and in the backfield will take time. The Roughriders went just 4-6 in the division last season and that continues to be the issue this season as well.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers – 11 wins projected (12-6 last season)
Winnipeg’s Matt Nichols is coming off of the best season of his career. The Blue Bombers will again battle it out with Edmonton and Calgary for the top spot in the West. One interesting point though is that a surprise right before training camp opened was the retirement of Darian Durant. That means if Nichols gets hurt again, like he did late last season, the Blue Bombers no longer have a veteran like Durant to answer the call. Though the Winnipeg offense is prolific, they still need to improve on the other side of the ball.
No other team in CFL had more “overs” than they did on the O/U line as they can score like crazy but struggle to stop teams. Some changes have been made in the secondary but until the unit has a chance to jell, we could see early season struggles again with the Blue Bombers defense. They had a bit of a gambling mentality on defense in terms of creating takeaways, but it also resulted in giving up too many plays. I need to see more from this defense before I would tab them to take the top spot in the West.
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