AAF Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Saturday 3/30/19

Alliance of American Football Betting Preview

Week 8

While there were reports this week that the AAF is considering only being a one-year wonder as talks about folding have now entered the lexicon, with the way this season has gone with my best bets, I may actually have to shed a tear for the Alliance if it does indeed fold.

Last week's plays swept the board again, as Arizona cruised to an easy win at home over San Diego, and the Memphis Express manage to stage a 4th quarter comeback to force the first OT game in league history and ultimately win the game in the extra session. Those plays pushed the YTD record to 8-1 ATS in this league as we've hit crunch time in Year 1 with just three weeks left.

With the rest of the year being 'rematch' games across the board, there are two spots this weekend where I believe we see at least one 'flip-flopping' of results in relation to the first matchup between the respective squads.

YTD Record: 8-1 ATS

Odds per - YouWager.eu

Best Bet #1: Atlanta/Birmingham Over 38

This is not the game that I'm expecting to see a different result here in regards to this total, as these two cashed an 'over' ticket back in Week 3 with Birmingham's 28-12 win. The Iron took control of that game in the 3rd quarter outscoring the Legends 11-0 in the frame, and from there the SU result was academic. And while I don't believe this return match will be as easy for Birmingham to get the W, the offensive surge and defensive regression we've seen from the Iron the past two weeks can't be ignored.

Birmingham has put up 32 and 25 points the past two weeks and what's telling there in terms of playing this 'over' is the fact that the Iron are just 1-1 SU in those games. Last week was the loss as they fell in OT to Memphis, but for a team that spent the first four weeks of the year not allowing more than 12 points in a single game, to be giving up an average of 30.33 points per game in the three weeks since then has to be concerning.

It's because of that lack of defense that Birmingham has had to turn to being more aggressive on the offensive side of the ball, putting up 28.5/game themselves these past two weeks in an effort to remain competitive. Granted, Atlanta may not have the explosive offense to really threaten the Iron in a similar fashion that San Diego and Orlando did in Weeks 5 and 6, but you could have easily said that about Memphis going into last week's game and the Express finished regulation with 25 points – their second highest point total of the year – before the OT win gave them a new high.

Atlanta's coaching staff has had to spend this week seeing these holes Birmingham's recent opponents have been exploiting, and although the Legends may not end up being as efficient in doing so, getting to 20+ points against this Iron defense that's been giving up about 10 points more than that the past three weeks isn't a huge ask.

With the Iron sitting as home chalk of a TD, I don't expect the Iron's offense to cool off much against this Legends defense that's allowed 30+ in back-to-back weeks themselves. I really believed this total would open up at 40 or more given the recent form of these defenses, as even if both sides do show improvement on that side of the ball, this number of 38 is still too low.

Odds per - YouWager.eu

Best Bet #2: Arizona/San Antonio Under 43.5

Arizona and San Antonio treated fans to a great back-and-forth game in their first meeting, as San Antonio jumped out to a 26-0 halftime lead and when white-knuckled it the whole way in, winning the game 29-25. Three total INT's combined helped both sides go on their respective runs, but with this essentially being a game for 1st place in the West, I do believe we see the defenses show up with a much stronger effort for the entirety of the game.

Both defenses were able to have success against this foe for a half, and with the stakes much higher – home field advantage for a likely playoff rematch – than the Week 5 meeting, I doubt we see a similar type shootout this time around. Arizona and San Antonio will have looked at that film and diagnose what worked and what didn't from a defensive standpoint, and while both offenses will make adjustments as well, 43.5 is a high number for this league, even with scoring being up overall the past couple of weeks.

Two of San Antonio's three home games this year have seen them score less than 20 points themselves, and none of Arizona's three trips away from home have finished with more than 39 combined points. It's those tendencies that I believe hold true this week as the winner – especially if it's San Antonio – puts themselves in a good spot for the playoffs.