4th Quarter Covers - Week 4
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fourth big college football weekend.
Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.
Utah (-4½) 30, Arizona 24: The Utes grabbed the lead early in this game with a few big plays, taking advantage of a big punt return and an Arizona fumble heading into the end zone to lead 13-3. Arizona got back within three with a late second quarter touchdown and had a chance to tie the game at the half but a 43-yard field goal missed. Both teams added third quarter touchdowns and Utah took command late in the third quarter with an interception return touchdown to lead again by 10. Early in the fourth quarter Arizona failed on 4th-and-1 from the Utah 25 and then on its next possession had a field goal attempt blocked for more missed opportunities. The Arizona defense kept them in the game holding Utah to a field goal and the Wildcats got within six finally completing a touchdown drive with just fewer than three minutes remaining. The Wildcats subsequently got the on-side kick to start at the Utah 35-yard-line but again fumbled following a strong first down gain to the 20-yard-line. Arizona’s defense again held but getting the ball back Arizona promptly threw an interception for their fifth turnover in a game where the host had significant yardage edges, particularly on the ground, despite the road favorite escaping with a very narrow win and cover. Those on the ‘over’ also felt the pain of all the missed scoring chances with the ‘under’ holding on a total that fell to as low as 55 before climbing back up to close at 60½.
Duke (+2½) 27, North Carolina 17: A big play just before halftime tied the game for North Carolina and through three quarters the Tar Heels led 17-13, just past the very slight home favorite spread, though it was Duke that was a slight road favorite most of the week. Six straight punts followed the third quarter touchdown for North Carolina before the Blue Devils put together a 74-yard touchdown drive to lead by three with about six minutes to play, with some early week spreads hitting as a high Duke -3. The Tar Heels looked like a threat to answer crossing midfield but Chazz Surratt wound up being intercepted and the return went all the way the other direction as Duke went up by 10. It wouldn’t have impacted the spread for most but North Carolina reached the Duke 13-yard-line in the final minute but Duke got the stop to secure the win and cover, now 4-0 both straight up and against the spread on the season after finishing just 4-8 SU last season.
Michigan (-13½) 28, Purdue 10: The Boilermakers led 10-7 at halftime and still were in position to clearly cover trailing 14-10 through three quarters. Michigan took over in the fourth however with two touchdown drives to go up by 18 with about seven minutes remaining. The young Wolverines defense held Purdue to just 15 net yards on six second half possessions to get the win and cover playing most of the game with backup quarterback John O’Korn.
Ohio (+1½) 27, Eastern Michigan 20: An interception return touchdown put Ohio up 10-6 just before halftime and the Bobcats led 13-6 through three quarters. Eastern Michigan tied the game early in the fourth quarter and Ohio botched two chances to win in regulation with a fumble at the end of a 29-yard pass play and then a missed field goal in the final two minutes. Eastern Michigan went first in overtime and scored on 1st down but Ohio matched that touchdown and going first in the second session they successfully converted two 3rd downs for the go-ahead touchdown. Eastern Michigan failed on 4th-and-4 as the Bobcats took a big road win in MAC play.
Nebraska (-13) 27, Rutgers 17: A defensive touchdown right after halftime put Rutgers ahead 17-14 but Nebraska was able to take over with a 97-yard touchdown drive and a field goal to lead by seven early in the fourth quarter. Starting with good field position on an early fourth quarter drive Nebraska reached the Rutgers 10-yard line but had to settle for a short field goal to only go up by 10 when a touchdown would have put Nebraska past the favorite spread that fluctuated at various price in between -11 and -14 during the week. Rutgers closed the game with a punt and another interception but Nebraska didn’t need more points to wrap up its homecoming victory as the Knights narrowly held on for the underdog cover.
Miami, FL (-13½) 52, Toledo 30: This was a one-point game until Miami scored a touchdown with 20 seconds remaining in the third quarter. The Hurricanes took over in the fourth quarter with the help of a Toledo fumble making for four consecutive touchdowns before Toledo stopped the bleeding, cutting the margin to 38-22 with a touchdown with nine minutes to go. The Rockets picked up an interception a few plays later and were back in the game, finding the end zone after the turnover to trail just 38-30 after a successful two-point conversion. It wound up not mattering as Miami scored two more touchdowns in the final seven minutes to win by a misleading 22 point final margin. After 40 points through three quarters the ‘over’ won with the all the late scoring on a total that closed at 60½.
Navy (-7½) 42, Cincinnati 32: This game featured a severe line move Saturday afternoon with Navy falling from an -11½-point favorite to closing as a -7½-point favorite. Those numbers mattered as Navy’s 18-point lead into the fourth quarter was cut into with a Cincinnati touchdown with six minutes to go. Down 12 Cincinnati went for two and got it on a play that provided a critical pointspread swing. The Bearcats were a threat to score again but they fumbled on a sack at the Navy 11-yard line with just over two minutes remaining. Navy took the ball to the Cincinnati 8-yard line in the final minute before taking a knee as the margin remained at 10 for mixed results on both sides depending on the timing.
Ohio State (-41) 54, UNLV 21: The Buckeyes led by 40 through three quarters but still throwing the ball with back-up quarterback Dwayne Haskins in the fourth quarter an interception was returned for a touchdown for UNLV to trim the margin to just 33 points. The Rebels would miss a field goal that could have secured the underdog cover but the Buckeyes fumbled at the UNLV 1-yard line with about four minutes to go as the Rebels hung on for the heavy underdog win.
Tulane (-3) 21, Army 17: Tulane led 14-10 at halftime and that score held through three quarters with the Wave opening as a -4 favorite before the number slipped to -2½ and settled right a -3. With about five minutes remaining Army completed a 15-play touchdown drive as the slight road underdog went up by three. With 23 seconds remaining Jonathan Banks ran into the end zone and the Merek Glover extra point gave Tulane the win by four for a narrow favorite cover for most.
Texas A&M (-1½) 50, Arkansas 43: The Aggies trailed 28-24 heading into the fourth quarter in Arlington but the scoring was far from over. Texas A&M settled for a field goal with about 12 minutes remaining to trail by one as a slight favorite but a lousy punt from Arkansas handed the Aggies great field position and they took a five-point lead a few plays later, failing going for two. Arkansas answered to lead 36-33 with about five minutes remaining but the ensuing kickoff was returned for a touchdown as the Aggies were back in front and ahead of the spread at 40-36. Arkansas had no problem answering again and led by three once again but the Aggies delivered on the final drive with a big 4th down conversion just past midfield and in range to hit a field goal to force overtime. A pass interference call on 3rd-and-long handed Texas A&M a quick touchdown going first in overtime and Arkansas wound up intercepted in the end zone as the Aggies won again in this series and scored a fortunate overtime cover as well.
UL-Monroe (+4) 56, UL-Lafayette 50: The underdog Warhawks led by 10 at the half and by 21 early in the fourth quarter. Louisiana-Lafayette made a furious comeback with 21 points in just over seven minutes to close regulation and force overtime, connecting on a 14-yard touchdown pass as time expired. Both teams got touchdowns in the first overtime, the Ragin’ Cajuns missed a field goal to lead off the second session while Louisiana-Monroe was able to deliver a touchdown for the win.
Western Kentucky (-12) 33, Ball State 21: This line on this game jumped around dramatically throughout the week with questionable Ball State personnel and the spread wound up closing right on the final margin. Most of the way that type of margin of victory for Western Kentucky seemed like an impossibility as they led by three through three quarters and wound up out-gained by Ball State for the game. The double-digit underdog Cardinals held a 21-20 lead into the final two minutes of the game but Western Kentucky delivered a touchdown run to go in front and then got a pick-6 a few plays later from Ball State backup quarterback Jack Milas, in an instant going from down one to up 12 and creating mixed results on the spread. That late scoring also pushed the total that settled around 50 after opening at 54½ just ‘over’.
North Texas (-10) 46, UAB 43: The Mean Green took control with a pair of field goals early in the fourth quarter pushing the margin to 14 points. UAB made a furious late rally, tying the game with back-to-back touchdowns in the final six minutes. A big kickoff return in the final minute sparked North Texas, starting at the UAB 44-yard line with 27 seconds to go. A big run quickly put the Mean Green in field goal range and they hit the 22-yard kick for the win, though the Blazers earned the underdog cover on a line that dipped from -13 to just -10.
San Diego State (PK) 28, Air Force 24: The Aztecs opened as high as a -4½-point favorite but most of the week sat between -2½ and -3½ before a drop to a pick’em just before game time. Air Force led 9-0 early before a lengthy weather delay and San Diego State took over from there leading 14-9 at through three quarters and 21-17 early in the fourth quarter. Air Force completed a 75-yard touchdown drive with about six minutes to go but San Diego State took less than a minute to go back up by four, just past the common spread while the final drive for Air Force ended with an interception. The total was narrowly eclipsed with 29 fourth quarter points.
Idaho (+6½) 29, South Alabama 23: The Jaguars led most of the game including sitting just past the closing spread with a 20-13 edge with about five minutes to go in the game with South Alabama favored by just 3½ much of the week before a late rise. Idaho delivered the tying touchdown with 13 seconds remaining to force overtime. In overtime both teams struggled to gain yards in session one, settling for matching field goals. South Alabama went backwards in round two going first and wound up missing a 43-yard field goal. Idaho delivered a touchdown for a minor upset in the Sun Belt.
USC (-17) 30, California 20: The Trojans and Bears were tied 13-13 through three quarters before USC took control with turnover help, adding 17 points in just over three minutes of game clock on drives of 30, 4, and 33 yards. USC opened as around a 15-point favorite before the line held firm at -17 to match the margin heading into the final 10 minutes. California eventually added a touchdown in the final two minutes to earn a deserved underdog cover as the Bears out-gained USC and somehow stayed in the game despite committing six turnovers.
Wyoming (-5) 28, Hawaii 21: Hawaii took a 14-7 lead late in the third quarter but that lead was quickly erased with a 97-yard kickoff return touchdown for Wyoming. The Cowboys struck again early in the fourth quarter leading 21-14 and past the slight home favorite spread that was as high as -7 early in the week. Hawai’i answered with a 50-yard touchdown pass to tie the game however. Wyoming missed a field goal in the final minutes and overtime was needed as those on the Cowboys still had life. Wyoming only needed one play to score an overtime touchdown going first and then delivered the win on defense with an interception as most scored a narrow cover on the Pokes.