WNBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, August 15th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Betting Recap - 8/7-8/13
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites/underdogs went 6-6 straight up (SU)
Underdogs went 8-4 against the spread (ATS)
Home teams posted a 7-5 SU record
Road teams posted a 7-5 ATS record
The 'under' went 6-5-1
Team Betting Notes
The slide for Atlanta (10-18) continues, as the dropped each of their three games in the past week. Their losing streak has reached seven, and they're also an imperfect 7-0 ATS during the skid. Bettors fading the Dream have benefitted, but so too have 'under' bettors. The under is 4-1-1 over the past six outings for the Dream.
Chicago (11-16) continues its upward ascent, winning and covering for the third consecutive outing.They're a rather impressive 8-4 ATS over the past 12 outings, including 4-2 ATS over their past six at home. The 'over' is also 5-1 over their past six outings at home.
The roll continues to Connecticut (17-9), as they remain atop the Eastern Conference with a one-game lead on Washington (16-10). While he Sun have rattled off five straight wins, they're rather hard to figure in terms of the number and total. They've alternated covers and losses in each of the past four, and the same holds true with the total. They'll hit the road for Atlanta on Friday. The Sun is 6-3 SU/ATS over their past nine away from home.
Dallas (13-16) suffered a loss in their only game in the past week, dropping one in Connecticut. They covered for the third time in the past four games, going 3-1 ATS after an 0-4 ATS slid from July 19-30.
Indiana (9-19) has sunk to the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and they have the second-worst record in the WNBA. They have dropped two in a row, and 12 of their past 14 games overall. While the Fever are doing playing well, they're at least covering. They are a respectable 5-4 ATS over the past nine.
Los Angeles (19-8 ) has hit a bump in the road lately on their trip east. They have dropped two of the past three, while also going 1-2 ATS during the span. While they've been good at home, they're a rather ordinary 2-4 SU/ATS across their past six games away from home. They will continue their road trip Wednesday in D.C. before hitting Chicago on Friday. The Sparks will be looking for revenge after losing 82-80 at home July 20 against the Sky as 12-point favorites.
It has been a rare trying time for Minnesota (21-4) lately. The Lynx still hold a three-game lead over L.A. despite going 1-2 SU/ATS over their past three outings. They're just 2-4 ATS across their past six outings at home.
New York (15-12) has pulled into third place in the East, and they're just 2 1/2 games back of the Sun for first place after their three-game winning streak. The Liberty's most impressive win of the season cames against the Sparks on Sunday despite entering as short 'dogs at home. They next face a showdown with the Sun in Connecticut on Friday.
Phoenix (14-13) has been banged up this season, and they continue to spin their wheels out west. The Mercury have dropped three of their past four outings, and they're just 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS across the past 10. It's not a great time for a long road trip, starting Friday in D.C. A healthy Mercury team dropped the Mystics 88-80 on July 5.
San Antonio (7-22) has turned things around with a 4-1 SU/ATS mark over their past five outings, including a 16-point beating of the Dream on Saturday. They'll look to stay hot as they hit the road in Seattle (11-16) on Friday. They lost their first trip to Seattle on June 18 by a 75-57 score, while splitting a pair in Texas.
The Storm is back home on Wednesday against the Lynx, but it hasn't exactly been home sweet home. Seattle is just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS over their past 10 games in the Pacific Northwest.
WNBA Betting Pick
By Allen Moody
Bangthebook.com
Just one game in the WNBA tonight, although it’s an interesting one, as the Connecticut Sun visits the Atlanta Dream. The Sun are favored by 3 and the total is 166.
As we do at the beginning of each week, we’ll look at what has transpired so far this season and we’ll see that home teams are 76-84-3 (47.5%) and totals are 84-77-1, which is right around the break-even point for over bettors. Favorites are still a profitable 86-73-3 (54.1%), while away favorites are still doing quite well, but have cooled off to an extenet. For the season, road favorites are 35-25-0 (58.3%), but are just 12-17 since the beginning on July.
Totals 170 and higher are 8-8 on the season and over/unders 165 or greater are 23-25 for the season. Totals 160 or less are 33-23 (58.1%) for the year.
The teams have met twice and split the first two games, which were both played in Connecticut. The Dream pulled off the upset in the first meeting 81-74, while the Sun had revenge on their mind in the rematch and won by a 104-71 final.
While the Sun are 17-9 for the season, they’ve been pretty much a break-even team on the road with a 7-6 straight-up record, although they are 10-3 ATS. Connecticut has done its best work as a road underdog, sporting a 6-1 ATS record. As a road favorite the Sun have gone 4-2 straight-up and against the number. The Sun have won five in a row, covering the spread in three of the games.
This is a one-game road trip for the Sun, who played their last five games and at home and then will play their next four in front of the home fans.
The Dream are limping along with a 10-18 record, but have gone 7-7 at home. Atlanta is in the middle of a seven-game slide, both straight-up and against the spread. Since 2011, WNBA teams that have lost at least five straight games to the spread are 31-17 and 4-1 after dropping seven straight. It seems like the oddsmakers will over-react, although that doesn’t really appear to be the case in this one. Three of those losses came against Minnesota and you can’t penalize anybody for losing to the Lynx.
Still, my numbers make this one 86-85 in favor of the Dream, so I’ll have to tag along and take Atlanta +3 in this spot.
CONNECTICUT (17 - 9) at ATLANTA (10 - 18) - 8/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
CONNECTICUT is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
CONNECTICUT is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-5 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 8-3 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Connecticut's last 22 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Connecticut is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Connecticut
StatFox Super Situations
CONNECTICUT at ATLANTA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 playing with 2 days rest, in August or September games 58-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.0% | 29.4 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
CONNECTICUT at ATLANTA
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CONNECTICUT) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=76 PPG), after scoring 77 points or more in 4 straight games 40-18 since 1997. ( 69.0% | 0.0 units ) 4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.0 units )
CONNECTICUT at ATLANTA
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 70.5 in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=62 shots/game), good rebounding team (+3 to +6 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 15+ games 62-28 since 1997. ( 68.9% | 31.2 units ) 3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )