Wednesday Service Plays

Big Al McMordie

Seattle Supersonics vs. New Orleans Hornets (NBA) - Jan 16, 2008 8:05 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 11/100 Seattle Supersonics Pick Title: Big Al's Complimentary Wednesday Night Hoops Winner.

At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on Seattle. The New Orelans Hornets are having a terrific season (25-12) in All-Star Chris Paul's third year in the league. Tonight, New Orleans will go up against another great young player in Seattle's Kevin Durant, but unfortunately for the Sonics, Durant does not yet have great pieces around him. Seattle has struggled of late, losing seven straight games heading into tonight, but it did almost upset the Lakers on Monday, but fell in overtime 123-121. I think we will get another strong effort from P.J. Carlesimo's club here in New Orleans, as teams tend to do well against the spread off long losing streaks. No professional athlete wants to lose, and when an NBA team falls six or more times in a row, that teams tries its hardest to break back into the win column. My database has several systems that incorporate this basic principle, so let's take a look at one of them. Consider that, since 1990, rested road underdogs of more than 9 points are 93-47 ATS if they have lost six or more games in a row, and have a win percentage of .100 or better. There are three elements to this angle that are key. The first is that our losing team is playing with rest. That's important since we'll get a much more energized effort that if our team was tired from a loss the night before. The second element is that our team is a big underdog of +9.5 points or more. This is important since we want a safety net should our bad team give a good effort, but still come up short. This came into play on Monday night when this very same system had Philadelphia +11 over San Antonio. The 76ers gave a supreme effort and were even winning the game 77-75 with a few minutes left, but lost 89-82. But because we were getting double-digits with Philly, we got the $$$$. Finally, the third important element here is that our team has a win percentage greater than .100. We don't want any part of a team that CAN'T win, and might have resigned itself to that fact. Take the Sonics.

Mighty Quinn

Arkansas -9.5

RedZone Sports.

So. Alabama

Gator Report

In this issue of our E-Report Online Newsletter we have Gator's CBB 70% Situational Report for Wednesday's hardwood action and Gator's CBB Trend /Angle Report for Wednesday January 16th, 2008.

CBB

Wednesday: Play On CBB favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season
51-16 ATS the last 5 seasons (76.1%) PLAY: Georgia -4.5

CTO

*IOWA over Purdue...With Iowa probably winless in Big Ten play after facing early quartet of conf. powers (combined 47-7 SU!), willing to support hungry Hawkeyes, who've registered a 15-2 SU mark at home in Big Ten last 2+ seasons (prior to Michigan State Jan. 12). Iowa's potent G duo of J. Johnson (16 ppg, 40% treys) & now-healthy Freeman (12 ppg, 4 apg; missed 1st 10 games due to broken foot) should burn inexperienced Purdue, ranked near bottom of Big 10 in two major defensive categories (FG & 3-pt.%). And Iowa's new HC Todd Lickliter figures to have good gameplan after defeating Boilers, 68-65, as Butler head honcho LY.

*IOWA 69 - Purdue 59 RATING - 10

TULANE over *Tulsa...Torrid Tulane (7-1 SU last 8 thru Jan. 8) ready to make some noise in C-USA, uplifted by 3 preconference upsets (including 1st win vs. LSU in 27 yrs.!). So, will gladly take any available points vs. Tulsa squad that lacks a true PG after soph playmaker M. Hill left early in campaign. Contrarily, Green Wave's gritty, 5-10 soph distributor Sims (13 ppg, 4 apg, 2 spg) has become a superb floor leader, while dependable 6-7, 240 sr. F Gomez (13 ppg, 6 rpg,) & emerging 6-7, 260 jr. F Louisme (11 ppg, 6 rpg) will be "double-trouble" in paint for G-driven Golden Hurricane.

TULANE 78 - *Tulsa 68 RATING - 11

Vegas Experts

Celtics coach Doc Rivers has heard the criticism that he's playing his starters too many minutes and here against the young and rather thin Blazers he can work his bench in for some quality minutes. Expect Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine and Scott Pollard to play heavy minutes here with the "Big Three" playing just enough to ensure a solid home win.

Play on: Boston

Cappers Access

Flor St

Georgia Tech

Big Al

Bulls

LT'S LOCK

Celtics -8'

Joe Wiz

Northern Illinois -1

Alex Smart

Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Portland Trailblazers enter into this road contest against the Boston Celtics at the Fleet Center as cash cows for their betting backers ,covering 18 of their L/22 games. The mighty Celtics on the other hand are beginning to look human, losing 3 of their L/4 SU overall, while failing to cover 5 of their L/7 , and 5 of their L/6 as double digit favorites. Final notes & Key Trends: Boston is 1-10 ATS in their L/11 January homes dating back to last season. Play on the Blazers

Arthur Ralph

Super Pick: Dayton

900 RunAway Winner: Texas A&M

Greg Daraban

763 Florida (15-2) at 764 Ole Miss (14-1)

SEC tilt in Oxford. The 2 time National Champions come to Ole Miss to take on the
Rebels. The Gators are 2-0, but they are in deep tonight. The Rebs are 1-1 but this
an outstanding squad. The crowd will be at fever pitch tonight in the old south.
Mississippi make a name for themselves with a big win.

Brandon Lang

10 Dime - Dayton
5 Dime - Ole Miss
5 Dime - Fordham
5 Dime - Texas A&M

Free Pick - Trail Blazers

Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day

Pacers started fast Sunday night in Oakland but didn't have the depth to finish off the deal. Depth and pace will again be a problem tonight vs. a Warriors club that opened a four-game, five-day road trip last night with a 105-98 victory over Minnesota. Golden State has won three straight and four of its last five games. The Pacers return home from a 1-4 road trip and have lost nine-of-11 overall. Home favorites off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 11-32 ATS in January games the past five seasons.

Play on: Golden State

COMPS

RAZOR SHARP Old Dominion

TOTALS4U Atlanta UNDER

BIG TIME SPORTS Davidson

#1 SPORTS Drake

COMPUTER SPORTS Orlando

NEVADA SHARPSHOOTER Northeastern

THE SCOUT Michigan

HAWKEYE SPORTS UAB

HUDDLE UP SPORTS Boston

ARTHUR RALPH UAB

DARK HORSE St Joe

VEGAS STEAM LINE New Jersey

Burns

Pers Fave-------------Rangers
NBA total GOW--------Under Sonics/Hornets
Non Conf GOM---------Pacers
Conf GOM-------------Mississippi

Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)

Gator's 70% Situational Report

NBA

Wednesday: Play Against NBA underdogs after a win by 10 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less 2 straight games
44-16 ATS the last 5 seasons (73.3%) PLAY: Boston -9

CBB

Wednesday: Play On CBB road favorites of 10 or more points with a team that averages >=+8 PPG differential against a team that averages <=-8 PPG differential after 15 or more games, after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games 24-2 ATS since 1997 (92.3%) PLAY: Memphis -26

Docs CBB

4 Unit Play. Take Western Michigan -2 ½ over Ball State

This is a flat out play against the home team, as the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the MAC. Western Michigan has won the last four meetings in this series and will make it five tonight and getting under a field goal makes it a strong play.

4 Unit Play. Take Fordham -5 over George Washington

The Colonials have not been in action since their dominating performance over St. Louis, a game that set basketball back 20 years, as the Billikens only scored 20 total points. They will receive a much tougher test on Wednesday against the Rams, a team still looking for their first conference win. George Washington has yet to record a victory on the road this year and Fordham is too good of a team to start 0-3 in conference play. Things even out on Wednesday, as Fordham records the victory.

4 Unit Play. Take Drake -3 over Bradley

The Bulldogs are for real and will likely earn an NCAA Tournament Birth as one of the premier teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley has fallen on hard times this season and will also be without its top scorer in Daniel Ruffin, who underwent hernia surgery. Bradley has been terrible at Carver Arena, having dropped four straight games and Drake is 4-1 in true road games this season. Drake has won 13 straight games and is not afraid to play in hostile environments, but they will certainly not witness one of those tonight against a depleted squad in Bradley.

4 Unit Play. Take Illinois State -9 ½ over Wichita State

Much like the Braves, the Shockers are just a glimmer of their self and will get blown out tonight against a much improved Red Bird team. ISU has already recorded a victory in Wichita and will complete the regular season sweep of the programs tonight @ Redbird Arena in Normal, Illinois. The Red Birds have great balance and that bodes well if Eldridge goes cold, because he has numerous teammates that can pick up the slack. The Shockers are just 1-4 in the conference and will drop below .500 with their overall record after a double-digit loss on Wednesday.

5 Unit Play. Take Mississippi -5 ½ over Florida

Game of the Week. We have been waiting for a perfect spot to go against Florida and that has arrived on Wednesday, as this number is way too low. Ole Miss has just a two point loss to Tennessee on their resume as their only setback and have been dominating at Smith Coliseum, currently 8-0. The Rebels have lost just one home game the last two years under Coach Kennedy and this young Gator team does not realize what is in store for them. Ole Miss also has revenge on their mind, as did Ohio State earlier this year when they pounded Florida. Alabama just on the Gators early, but is mentally weak and could not put them away. The Rebels will jump on them early tonight and put away Florida by halftime.

4 Unit Play. Take Troy -4 over Mid Tenn State

Another classic case where home court makes the difference in the Sun Belt Conference affair. The Raiders are 0-5 on the road and the Trojans can light up the scoreboard. This will be high scoring and thus Troy will be able to cover this number.

4 Unit Play. Take North Carolina -11 over Georgia Tech

The Tar Heels have been the best team in the land and will be able to cover this big number against a bad Yellow Jacket squad. Tech is just 3-3 when playing in Atlanta this year and Carolina has dominated this series winning 57 of the 76 lifetime meetings. Carolina has four players averaging double figures and comes close to scoring triple digits every time they take the floor. They will be able to cover this double-digit number tonight, as they win by close to 20 points.

Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take Mississippi (-5) over Florida

Note: This line has moved since I've posted it. But off the hook if you can, but I would recommend playing it for 4.5 Units at -5.5 and 4.0 Units at 6.0.

Frankly, I just don’t think Florida is any good. They still have next to zero experience on the road and Ole Miss can be a daunting place to play. The Gators got hammered at Ohio State and they were getting hammered in Alabama in their only true road tests. They eventually won in ‘Bama, but that’s because ‘Bama stinks. The Rebels have size to complicate matters for and there are two key Ole Miss players – David Huertas and Chris Warren – who have a little revenge factor against the Gators. The home team is 7-3 ATS in this series and the favorite is 5-1. Also, UF is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road.

3.5-Unit Play. Take Virginia (-5) over Virginia Tech

The Cavaliers should be primed for a bounceback performance tonight against their in-state rival. Virginia is coming off two blowouts in two of the toughest venues in the country – at Duke and at Xavier – and a little home cooking should help them regain their wayward shooting touch. VT is shooting 39.6 percent in its last four road games and they are 3-7 ATS in their L10 as a visitor. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS at home in this series, 5-1 ATS in the L6 meetings, the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the L8 meetings and the home team has covered four straight. I sense some desperation out of UVA and I’ll take their experience over the youthful Hokies.

2-Unit Play. Take DePaul (+11) over Villanova

The Blue Demons handled the Wildcats in Chicago and Nova is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. DePaul is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference games and a win at St. John’s over the weekend certainly showed some maturity for this senior-laden club. I think this number is about four points heavy and we should be able to sneak in this one through the backdoor.

2-Unit Play. Take Delaware (+12.5) over VCU

Yes, the Blue Hens are due for a letdown after two thrilling overtime wins at home against two of the best teams in the conference. However, this spread is about six points thick. The Rams haven’t been blowing out bad teams at home, beating Hofstra and Georgia State by an average of just six points and failing to cover the spread by a combined 20.5 points. VCU is 7-15-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record, and while I think they win tonight I don’t know if it’s going to be a 15- or 18- point blowout.

2-Unit Play. Take South Carolina (+10.5) over Arkansas

As I’ve been saying: I don’t trust any SEC team laying this many points. The Gamecocks have hung around with some decent teams this year, losing to USC, N.C. State, George Mason, Clemson, Baylor and Vandy by an average of 6.5 points. They have also beat Penn State and Providence. They aren’t an awful team and I think they can hang around an Arkansas team that just doesn’t put games away.

2-Unit Play. Take Fordham (-5) over George Washington

Note: This line has moved since I've posted it. But off the hook if you can, but I would recommend playing it for 1.0 Unit at -6 and 1.5 Units at 5.5. No play over -6.

I think it’s time for the Fordham seniors to step up. They were pretty game last weekend against Xavier but were overmatched in the second half. Now they return home after three brutal road games to face a young, inconsistent GW club that has been awful on the road. The Colonials are 3-12-1 ATS on the road and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in this series.