Gold Key
Iowa +1.5
Northcoast comps
Purdue -1 1/2
Dave Malinsky
PICK: Georgia State
Offered at: 6.5
REASON FOR PICK: 4* GEORGIA STATE over DREXEL
When a limited Drexel team gets pushed form -4.5 to as high as -6.5 by the marketplace, it means that we have Rod Barnes right where we want him – getting no respect at all. But we see real progress being made in his first season at the helm at Georgia State, and the key is that there are enough losses piling up for no one to pay any particular attention.
The Panthers enter this game at 1-4 in the Colonial Athletic Association, and are on a run of three straight losses. But take a closer look at those defeats. All three came by just two points, and in all three of them State had the ball with a chance to either win the game or force overtime in the final seconds. The fact that they could not knock the shots down is a sign of a young team that is still developing in confidence, but the fact that they were right there to make it happen tells us much about the level of tenacity at which Barnes has them playing. Tonight we get a matchup in which effort alone is enough to get them on the plus side of the ATS ledger, adding to a 4-0 run as conference underdogs already, and once again we would not be surprised if the game goes to the final buzzer.
Wins are not going to be easy to come by for Drexel this season, much less margins. Like Georgia State the Dragons are also just 1-4 in CAA play, but the way that they have lost has been a different matter entirely – there was an early 85-38 disaster vs. George Mason (the Panthers beat the Patriots at home); a 79-45 thrashing at Northeastern (the Panthers lost by 64-62 on that same court, when Leonard Mendez missed a triple at the buzzer); an 86-77 loss at uninspiring Towson State; and a home loss to Delaware. They are shooting an anemic 41.1 percent from the field, 30.6 from 3-point range; and most important for our purposes is a 60.9 at the free throw line that has them competing for the bottom of the Division I barrel. A favorite that can not make their free throws is a prime candidate to get back-doored, and a tenacious Georgia State team will bring the mentality to make that happen, should it be needed. In a close and low-scoring affair, this pointspread is a mountain.
Wolkosky Milan
10* CHARLOTTE +1½
10* SEATTLE +11
10* GS/IND UNDER 223
ATS LOCK
5 Iowa St +5 1/2
4 Tulsa -5 1/2
4 Miss -5 1/2
4 Fla Atlantic +19
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* Depaul
2. 50,000* Delaware
3. 50,000* Trailblazers
1. Depaul- What Depaul team have oddsmakers been watching?! Maybe during their atrocious 2-7 start you could justify making the Blue Demons double-digit dogs in this spot, but not now, not when they've won 5 of their last 6 games SU and 4 of their last 5 ATS!
Clearly, the Blue Demons have found their chemistry, and the results are there for everyone to see, especially on the defense end. Depaul was losing games in the early season thanks to a lack of consistent defensive intensity, but over their last 5 games they're surrendering 67 ppg on 42% shooting. That's a marked jump from their season averages of 75 ppg allowed on 44% shooting. Just ask Villanova's star G Scottie Reynolds how good this Depaul defense is, as he struggled in their last meeting January 3rd (4 for 12 shooting, 11 points, 4 turnovers).
Probably the biggest match up issue the Wildcats have is in the frontcourt, as despite being cleared, 6'10 C Drummond is not expected to play. Note that in their last match up, Depaul's froncourt of Koshwal, Clarke, and Green combined for 39 points (all 3 in double-figures) and 25 rebounds, dominating the paint. In other words, the Wildcats could desperately use Drummond in this match up, but since he's not expected to play, the Wildcats are again at a disadvantage down-low.
Finally, although it took him a while, coach Wainwright has his boys playing harder than at any other point this season. Their 60-54 outright upset at St. John's is a perfect example of a team firing on all cylinders, even in hostile territory, thanks to excellent chemistry. Some teams react to losses by losing more, other teams learn from their mistakes and flourish, Depaul falls in the latter group.
Bottom line, the edge in the frontcourt is key in this match up, because it opens up the court for G Draelon Burns, making this Depaul offense a lot more dynamic. Although the Wildcats will be playing for revenge, their going to have to beat a Depaul defense that's playing excellent team basketball right now. While 'Nova may win this game, it'll be a hell of a lot closer than the guys in Vegas want you to believe.
Take Depaul plus the points over Villanova as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Delaware- I freely admit I was down on this Delaware team early on, but after watching them beat their last 4 opponents OUTRIGHT, I'm a big enough man to admit I was wrong about the Blue Hens. Overtime wins against George Mason and Old Dominion can only serve to solidify this team further as they travel to face-off with a VCU team that's been far from impressive of late.
Everywhere I read this Rams team is considered an "offensive juggeraut," but where's the proof? Over their last 5 games they're averaging a very pedestrian 64 ppg on 41% shooting... Not exactly burning any barns down. Guys, over the same span the Blue Hens have actually been averaging more points (65 ppg L5), led by some real impressive games from F Herb Courtney, including a 27-point 11 rebound effort against Old Domnion in his last one.
The Rams defense is no joke, but when you're spotting the Blue Hens this many points, its hard for me to believe they can't keep this game within the lumber, especially when you consider Delaware's recent play, which has been nothing short of outstanding. There's little to stop Courtney down-low, and the Delaware guards have been shooting well enough to make VCU pay for keying on their talented forward.
Bottom line, while the Rams almost assuredly win this game at home, the Blue Hens have proven over their last 4 games that they can hang with any team in the CAA. The fact VCU is a big favorite here is based on pereception, but the reality is Delaware is playing solid basketball and they'll bring home the cash in this one.
Take Delaware plus the points over VCU in this CAA match up.
3. Trailblazers- Do I really need to tell you how well this Portland team is playing right now? Winners of 18 of their last 20 games and holding the best pointspread mark in the NBA at 24-13-1, they're a cash-machine and playing like it! Critics however are quick to say they won't be "sneaking up" on anybody anymore, but that's a BS way of not giving credit when credit is due. In fact, its the Celtics who are dealing with issues right now...
While everyone is concentrating on the fact the Celtics have lost consecutive games for the first time this season, I'm more concerned with the fact their offense is struggling mightily right now. Boston is averaging a very un-Boston-like 84 ppg on 43% shooting over their last 5 games, and is a big reason why they've lost 3 of their last 4 games SUATS.
If you're expecting the Celtics to break out of their slump tonight, you might be left disappointed, as the Blazers defense is not only more athletic, but also playing very well, allowing just 95 ppg over their last 5. If the Blazers can lock down offenses like the Warriors (91 points) and Jazz (89 points) over the last week or so, then they can limit an already struggling Celtics offense.
Another factor to consider is the injury to Ramon Rondo, who's listed as questionable with a sore back. The last thing this Boston offense needs is to lose their starting point guard, especially when their depth at the position is terrible. Even if he does play, he'll need to be 100% to effectively combat a very athletic Portland defense.
Bottom line, if you're underestimating this Portland team, shame on you! They've done nothing but win and tonight they face a suddenly struggling Boston team, that's absolutely ripe for the pickings. Boston will likely win this game with a strong defensive effort, but because of their offensive woes, expect this game to be closer than expected. Blazers grab the cash Wednesday night in Boston!
Take the Trailblazers plus the points over the Celtics in this NBA match up.
BIG AL
At 7 pm, our 5* College Basketball Game of the Month is on the Florida State Seminoles plus the points over Duke. FSU falls into several systems of mine that have records of 14-7, 41-6, 29-19, 94-42 and 107-44 ATS. Some of the systems are plays ON Florida State, while others are plays AGAINST Duke. Let's take a look at our 94-42 ATS system. This angle goes against certain .900 (or better) road favorites off a 14 point (or greater) win, if they're matched up against a winning foe. Florida State is 12-5 on the season, and has defeated the Blue Devils in each of the past two seasons. Last year, FSU won 68-67 as an 8.5-point road dog at Cameron Indoor Stadium. And two years ago, Florida State snapped Duke's 10-game win streak with a 79-74 upset at home. Overall, the Seminoles have covered six of seven vs. Duke. FSU is 9-0 SU at home this year, and 39-6 SU over the past three seasons. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my two other huge winners tonight, including a great college play out of a 14-0 ATS angle, and an NBA Winner.
At 8 pm, our SEC Game of the Month is on the Ole Miss Rebels plus the points over Florida.
At 7:35 pm, our Atlantic Division Game of the Year is on the New Jersey Nets minus the points over New York, as the Nets are a play in three of my NBA revenge systems.
Ben Burns Freebie
New Jersey Nets
Reason: I successfully played on the Knicks last night, using them as my "Eastern Conference Game of the Month." However, this looks like a much tougher spot. Last night, they were catching the Wizards off a big win at Boston the night before and playing their fourth game in five nights. Tonight, its the Knicks which are playing the second of back to back games. This will also mark their sixth game in the past nine nights. Note that the Knicks are a poor 5-13 SU and 6-12 ATS the last 18 times they played the second of back to back games. They'll be facing a well-rested New Jersey squad which is anxious to bounce back after suffering losses to Boston and Portland the last two times out. Additional motivation will be provided by the fact that the Knicks already upset the Nets twice this season. Despite the loss here in December, the Nets remain a healthy 14-4 SU and 12-6 ATS the last 18 times they were a host in this series. I expect them to resume that homecourt series dominance this evening. Consider laying the points.
Ethan Law
2* Iowa State +5.5
1* Rice +26
1/2* Florida Atlantic +18
three2won
Orlando Magic -1
Rob Veno
New York @ New Jersey UNDER 191
Recent series history here in the Nets building has tilted severely toward the under going 4-1 the last five meetings. Have to believe that this contest will fall right in line as the posted number of 191 gives these two miserable shooting teams ample room to create a low scoring affair. Jersey offense has gone south the past couple of games posting 77 & 73 points as their shooting percentage has now fallen to a dismal 43.3%. With the Knicks suddenly confident on the defensive end after a pair of stellar performances, expect New Jersey have point scoring difficulties again. For New York, offense has been a weakness as well. Over the last 20 games, the Knicks have exceeded 95 points just seven times and their 24th ranked 43.8 FG% is barely better than New Jersey’s. It took 77 free throw attempts in the last contest between these teams to have the total land on 193 and can’t figure for that much charity help here. In the second game of their eight back to back situations this year, the Knicks are averaging just 184.3 points per game and they are 0-5 under the total versus Eastern conference opponents in this spot. Look for something in the 179-184 range tonight as this one stays under the total. Recommendation: UNDER
Jeff Bonds
CBB Sides
triple-dime betVirginia -5.0 vs Va. Tech
Analysis:
The Virginia Cavaliers have a great chance of winning their third straight ACC home opener, as they host a team they've dominated nine straight times on their home floor.
Virginia is coming off a humiliating loss to Duke, but this was to be expected, as the Cavaliers have now lost 12 straight games to the Blue Devils.
Cavaliers head coach Dave Leitao is an impressive 11-1 against in-state rivals and the team has won 20 straight home games in this situation.
The pressure of this rivalry will affect a young Hokies team that has freshman playing 51 percent of the time.
Virginia cruises to an EASY VICTORY tonight!
CBB Sides
double-dime bet Marshall 0.0 vs East Caro.
Analysis
The Marshall Thundering Herd have enjoyed road success against East Carolina in Conference USA play - winning three out of four matchups - and I don't expect things to change tonight.
East Carolina demonstrated weakness at home last season - winning only one home game in conference play and that happened to be the season finale against UTEP.
Marshall rolls to a victory tonight
Greg Shaker
CBB Sides
triple-dime bet768 N.Illinois -1.0 vs E. Mich
Analysis:
NCAAB: Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies - Northern Illinois -1 -110 | Unit Value: 3 DIME "Wednesday Destroyer)
Note: I played and won with this team Sunday and I am going to do it again, all for the same reasons. This team had a rough start to the year due to injuries several and players returning or leaving the team. Fifth-year senior point guard Ryan Paradise elected to end his career after dealing with myriad injuries. Paradise started the first six games before suffering a broken nose on Nov. 24. Guard Cody Yelder has not played due to acedemic issues, and Junior forward Sean Smith has been in and out of the lineup with the same. He returned to the court Sunday and put together a very good effort verses Toledo, at one time hitting 3 straight baskets on three possessions. Smith possesses a good mid-range jumper and can put the ball on the floor. Senior forward Ben Rand did not dress for the Toledo game. Rand, a transfer from Iowa, had started the last four games but was sidelined with a foot injury. Despite numerous lineup changes, almost daily, the Huskies are coming together, getting great bench work, and performing well verses some pretty good teams like Air Force and Arkansas Little Rock. NIU coach Ricardo Patton after the Huskies won their fourth straight home game, a 78-62 win over Toledo, "You have to take care of your home court and have a sense of pride. Certainly, our guys are developing that sense of pride." This is an amazing stat but here it comes. Northern Illinois' bench outscored Toledo 62-9 on Sunday. They do have a lot of people they can turn to, and the reason is simple. The Bench guys have had to be pushed into action and that has made the Huskies a much better team. Eastern Michigan poses no real threat on the road having lost 5 straight, their shooting numbers have been very poor over the last 5, and the Huskies are turning up the D, allowing less than 39% shooting over their last 5 played. They have another homecourt chance tonight verses a team that they have an 8-2 ATS record last 10. I don't know who is going to step onto the court first tonight for the home team. I do know that we will see a lot of players with capability doing so tonight. I am laying the small price
CBB Sides
double-dime bet760 Iowa St. 6.0 vs Missouri
Analysis: NCAAB: Missouri Tigers at Iowa State Cyclones - Iowa State +6 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Note: Some teams just give others Hell and the Cyclones do that to Mizzu. The last game these two play the Tigers came away with a win but prior to that Iowa State had beat Mizzu 4 straight times and they are also just 3-7 ATS last 10 meetings. This has not been a good series to be the favorite with a 3-13 ATS Mark for the "Better Team." Missouri is a tough team to beat at their homeplace and always has been, but they, like other schools struggle when they hit the road and Mizzu has done just that at 0-3 this year on true road contests and 1-5 away from Columbia overall. Iowa State does a lot of things right and one of those is play great D. They are allowing just 37% shooting here in Ames. Iowa State is starting one of the taller lineups among Big 12 teams, mixing three forwards (Wesley Johnson, Rahshon Clark and Craig Brackins) and a center (Jiri Hubalek) with a point guard, Bryan Petersen. The lineup enabled the Cyclones to forge a 44-37 advantage on the boards at Baylor last game. They did have some costly turnovers, (19) and that was their demise. Things will be better here at home, and their tall linup matches up very well with what Mizzu brings to the table. The Tigers have been outboarded on the road this year by a whopping 9 per game and they are more than likely going to get the same treatment this evening. The visitors also have not shown the ability to stop the opposition away from home, allowing over 53% shooting. They are coming off a huge home win over Texas. Perhaps a letdown, and perhaps not, but the Tigers will know they have played a game when this one is in the books. I am grabbing the 6 points.
Rocketman
Southern Miss @ UAB 8:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* Southern Miss +7 1/2
Southern Miss is 25-10 ATS last 3 years against conference opponents. Southern Miss is 24-9 ATS last 3 years after a conference game. Southern Miss is 11-3 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference rival. Southern Miss is 7-1 ATS last 3 years when playing against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less after 15 or more games. Southern Miss is 10-3 ATS last 3 years playing good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less. Southern Miss is allowing only 63.1 points per game overall this year. Golden Eagles are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Golden Eagles are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win. Golden Eagles are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win. Golden Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Wednesday games. Golden Eagles are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 vs. Conference USA. Golden Eagles are 24-10-2 ATS in their last 36 games overall. Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll play Southern Miss for 3 units tonight!
Matty O'Shea
NBA Total
double-dime bet TOR / SAC Over 199.5
Analysis: The Kings will be playing at full strength for the 1st time this season, with point guard Mike Bibby expected to make his 1st start of the season after sitting out with a thumb injury. They got leading scorer Kevin Martin back from a groin injury 2 games ago, and he has averaged 32 points off the bench as both went OVER. In fact, the total has gone OVER in the last 4 games for Sacramento. The OVER is also 3-1 in Toronto's last 4 games, including a 103-89 loss at Detroit on Tuesday. I simply expect the Kings to run in this one with all their players finally back, and I think the Raptors will have no problem pushing the pace and running with them. That's why I'm betting the OVER as my Double Dime NBA Total Play O' the Week.
Bryan Leonard
Matchup: Northeastern at William Mary
Play: William Mary (-3.5-110)
The Huskies of Northeastern will be playing their 12th of 16 games on the road tonight as they visit William & Mary. They have yet to secure a victory in conference road games posting a 0-2 mark. The Huskies are a poor shooting team that doesn’t have an outside scoring threat. They rank 317th in the country in 3 point shooting percentage. That of course limits their ability in a comeback situation. Northeastern is also a very young squad with no seniors on the roster with their top four minute producers being either freshman or sophomores.
William & Mary have won three straight conference games including back to back road wins at Georgia State and Old Dominion. The Tribe is an improving ballclub and we catch them here laying a small number to a young struggling club. While the Huskies are very young this is a veteran Tribe squad. Four of their top five players in minutes are either juniors or seniors.
Northeastern shoots just 39.8% from the field on the road while the host allows just 38.7% shooting in this building. We simply can’t see a scenario where the less experienced Huskies can control the game here. They haven’t played exceptionally well away from home and William & Mary is on the upswing. The number is simply too short to not back the veteran host.
PLAY WILLIAM & MARY
Matchup: George Washington at Fordham
Play: George Washington (+5-110)
The record setting defensive performance against St Louis could be a springboard for this club which really struggled in non-conference play. But Atlantic 10 action is an entirely different ballgame and a new lease on life for the Colonials who are now 1-0 in conference play. They have owned this series winning 8 straight and 14 of the last 15 meetings, yet they are installed as an underdog here. George Washington allows just 39.7% shooting from the floor and they should own the rebounding edge in this game. Therefore we have the better defensive team who will control the boards yet we are getting points in this match-up.
Fordham has yet to defeat a team of any type of quality this season. They enter with a 6-8 record with victories over Columbia, Central Missouri State, Manhattan, Hofstra, New Jersey Tech and Binghamton. None of those victories were against teams ranked in the top 200 in the nation, yet they are a sizable favorite tonight. Against teams in the top 200 ranking the Rams closest defeat was by 4 points here to NC Greensboro. So we have a club that has been very consistent with their outputs, they play to a certain level, and that level not only isn’t good enough to cover this number, it’s doubtful they will win the game. Both teams are slow paced which means less possessions and fewer points scored which makes each point more valuable for betting purposes. Look for the Colonials to build on their last defensive performance and win in a very low scoring game.
PLAY GEORGE WASHINGTON
Bullseye
Matchup: Michigan at Illinois
Play: Illinois (-11.0-110)
Michigan lost 54-42 the last time it played Illinois last Feb. 21. The Wolverines, who rely heavily on three-point shooting, will find points (from behind the arc) tough to come by again against the Illini, which plays strong perimeter defense. Michigan is 1-5 on the road and that loan win cam against a young and inexperienced Northwestern squad.
Matchup: Virginia Tech at Virginia
Play: Virginia (-5.0-110)
Virginia needs to get things turned around after getting routed twice in two games, and Virginia Tech looks to offer that opportunity. The Hokies have won four of their last five games after rallying to get past Maryland, but they have struggled on the road, where they are only 1-4 with losses to Wake Forest and Richmond, among others. Also, Virginia leads this series by a whopping margin of 78-47.
Matchup: Michigan at Illinois
Play: Illinois (-11.0-110)
Posted on: January 16, 2008 @ 10:59:20 AM EST
Michigan lost 54-42 the last time it played Illinois last Feb. 21. The Wolverines, who rely heavily on three-point shooting, will find points (from behind the arc) tough to come by again against the Illini, which plays strong perimeter defense. Michigan is 1-5 on the road and that loan win cam against a young and inexperienced Northwestern squad.
Paul Leiner
10* Houston -9.5
5* Rutgers +17