Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 12/8/19
Sunday's Tip Sheet
David Schwab
Sunday’s college basketball betting board offers three matchups featuring some of the top teams in the nation.
First up in an early ACC paring, the North Carolina Tar Heels are on the road against the Virginia Cavaliers. In the first of two games on Sunday night, the Gonzaga Bulldogs face the Washington Huskies. Closing out Sunday’s betting, the Seton Hall Pirates are on the road against the Iowa State Cyclones.
No. 7 North Carolina at No. 5 Virginia (ACCN, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Virginia -4.5, Total 116
Betting Matchup
The Tar Heels are going to tumble more than a few spots in next week’s national rankings after Wednesday’s lopsided 74-49 loss to Ohio State as three-point home favorites. This was their second straight-up loss in three games as part of an overall record of 6-2. North Carolina has been a betting disaster with a 2-6 mark against the spread. Adding injury to insult, freshman forward Armando Bacot left Wednesday game with a significant ankle injury. Freshman guard Cole Anthony shot just 26.7% from the field scoring 15 points in that loss.
Virginia should also fall down the national ranks with an ugly 69-40 loss to Purdue on Wednesday as a 2 ½-point road underdog. This was the Cavaliers’ first SU loss of the year after winning their first seven games. They covered the closing spread in the first two games of the season before going 0-6 ATS in their last six contests. Virginia is averaging just 53.3 points per game with a defensive effort that is holding opponents to 43.9 points. This is the lowest points-allowed average in the nation to keep the total UNDER in six of eight games.
Betting Trends
-- The Tar Heels have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five ACC games with the total staying UNDER in four of those five games.
-- The Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games and the total has gone OVER in three of their last five games against an ACC team.
-- Virginia has gotten the best of this series over the past 10 meetings with a 7-3 record both SU and ATS. The Tar Heels have failed to cover in the last four games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six matchups.
No. 9 Gonzaga at No. 22 Washington (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Gonzaga -2.5, Total 144
Betting Matchup
Gonzaga’s lone SU loss of the season against nine victories came against Michigan in an 82-64 Wolverines’ romp in the Battle 4 Atlantis title game. The WCC’s Bulldogs closed as 4 ½-point favorites. They bounced back on Wednesday by covering a 30-point spread in a 101-62 win against Texas Southern. They are 5-4-1 ATS with the total going OVER in seven of the 10 games. Corey Kispert (17 points) and Joel Ayayi (16 points) led the way in the recent 100-point effort. Gonzaga is averaging 86.2 PPG which is ranked fifth in the country while allowing an average of 63.9 points a game.
The Pac-12’s Huskies are in the national rankings with a SU 7-1 start that includes a current five-game winning streak. They are an even 4-4 ATS after failing to cover in Wednesday’s 90-80 victory over Eastern Washington as 15 ½-point home favorites. The total went OVER 147 ½ points after staying UNDER in five of Washington’s first seven games. Quade Green (20 points) and Jaden McDaniels (17 points) had the hot hands in Wednesday’s win. Freshman Isaiah Stewart leads the team in scoring on the year with 16.5 PPG.
Betting Trends
-- The Bulldogs have failed to cover in five of their last seven road games with one contest ending as a PUSH. The total has stayed UNDER in four of those games.
-- The Huskies have gone an even 3-3 ATS this season at home after going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games last season. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 12 games played at home.
-- Gonzaga has won nine of its last 10 games against Washington SU and it has covered the spread in eight of those 10 meetings. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings.
No. 16 Seton Hall at Iowa State (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Iowa State -1, Total 154.5
Betting Matchup
Losses to Michigan State and Oregon as underdogs are the Big East’s Pirates’ two SU losses against six wins. They are also 6-2 ATS after beating Iowa State at 84-76 on Nov. 29 in the 5th-place matchup in the Battle 4 Atlantis. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in five of eight games. Senior guard Myles Powell is Seton Hall’s top scorer with 23.4 PPG. He posted 19 of his 24 points against Iowa State in the second half on that game. Overall, the Pirates have averaged 82 PPG this season.
The Big 12’s Cyclones followed up the loss to Seton Hall with Wednesday’s 79-61 rout of UMKC but they could not cover as 18-point home favorites. They have failed to cover in three of their last four games. Overall, Iowa State is 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. The total has gone OVER in its last four games and in six of the eight games overall. Three starters accounted for 54 of the team’s 76 points in the first game against Seton Hall. The Cyclones shot a respectable 45.3 percent from the field but they were just 9-for-27 from three-point range.
Betting Trends
-- The Pirates have failed covered ATS in four of their last seven games on the road with the total staying UNDER in six of their last eight road games.
-- The Cyclones are 3-5 ATS in their last eight home games with the total going OVER in five of their last seven games played at home.
-- Seton Hall came away with that recent victory against Iowa State as a two-point favorite on the closing line . The total went OVER 151 points in the first and only meeting between the two teams.
739N CAROLINA -740 VIRGINIA
N CAROLINA is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
739N CAROLINA -740 VIRGINIA
N CAROLINA is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
741OLD DOMINION -742 VA COMMONWEALTH
OLD DOMINION is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds in the last 3 seasons.
743E TENN ST -744 N DAKOTA ST
N DAKOTA ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 in the last 3 seasons.
745MIDDLE TENN ST -746 MURRAY ST
MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-20 ATS (-16 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.
747N ILLINOIS -748 CAL DAVIS
N ILLINOIS are 73-36 ATS (33.4 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots since 1997.
749UNLV -750 BYU
BYU is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games in the last 3 seasons.
751NEW MEXICO -752 WYOMING
NEW MEXICO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in road games in the last 3 seasons.
753MARQUETTE -754 KANSAS ST
KANSAS ST is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.
757PACIFIC -758 LONG BEACH ST
PACIFIC is 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1997.
759CAL BAPTIST -760 UC-IRVINE
UC-IRVINE is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) off a home win over the last 2 seasons.
761SIENA -762 CAL POLY-SLO
CAL POLY-SLO is 4-26 ATS (-24.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons.
763SACRAMENTO ST -764 CS-FULLERTON
SACRAMENTO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.
765PORTLAND -766 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
771HOUSTON -772 S CAROLINA
S CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after 3 consecutive non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.
773WICHITA ST -774 OKLAHOMA ST
WICHITA ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
775CLEMSON -776 FLORIDA ST
CLEMSON is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games since 1997.
777C MICHIGAN -778 VALPARAISO
VALPARAISO is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) after allowing 80 points or more in the last 3 seasons.
779S ALABAMA -780 RICHMOND
S ALABAMA is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
779S ALABAMA -780 RICHMOND
Richie Riley is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after a combined score of 155 points or more (Coach of S ALABAMA)
781WM & MARY -782 FAIRFIELD
FAIRFIELD is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in non-conference games in the current season.
783MARSHALL -784 TOLEDO
MARSHALL is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds since 1997.
785TENNESSEE TECH -786 OHIO U
OHIO U is 4-20 ATS (-18 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds in the last 3 seasons.
787SAN JOSE ST -788 SAN DIEGO ST
SAN DIEGO ST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in home games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
789TEXAS -790 TEXAS A&M
TEXAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
791NORTHWESTERN -792 PURDUE
NORTHWESTERN is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a win by 15 points or more in the last 3 seasons.
793DENVER -794 UCLA
DENVER is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
795NEBRASKA-OMAHA -796 N ARIZONA
N ARIZONA is 43-22 ATS (18.8 Units) in road games after playing a game as a home favorite since 1997.
797BUFFALO -798 DEPAUL
BUFFALO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games against Big East conference since 1997.
799N DAKOTA -800 E WASHINGTON
N DAKOTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of =45% of their shots since 1997.
805RUTGERS -806 MICHIGAN ST
MICHIGAN ST is 17-3 ATS (13.7 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
807SETON HALL -808 IOWA ST
IOWA ST is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
809TULANE -810 SAINT LOUIS
TULANE is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) since 1997.
811DAYTON -812 ST MARYS-CA
DAYTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
813LIBERTY -814 GRAND CANYON
LIBERTY is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.
1231COLGATE -1232 NIAGARA
NIAGARA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a road win in the last 3 seasons.
1233SACRED HEART -1234 HARTFORD
SACRED HEART is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1997.
1235USC UPSTATE -1236 FURMAN
USC UPSTATE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games in the last 3 seasons.
1237SOUTHERN U -1238 AKRON
SOUTHERN U is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in road games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
1239NORTHWESTERN ST -1240 LSU
LSU is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games vs. losing teams in the last 3 seasons.
Sunday’s college basketball
UNC/Virginia both have injury issues (check status on Bacot; Key is out). North Carolina lost two of last three games after a 5-0 start- they haven’t scored 80+ points yet, first time since 1950 they’ve gone this far into a season without doing that. Carolina lost its last four games wth Virginia; they lost their last five visits here, four of which were by 9+ points. Tar Heels have #293 eFG% this year. Virginia scored 46-40 points in splitting two games since Key got hurt; Cavaliers have #1 eFG% defense in country, while also playing slowest tempo in country.
Houston is 4-2 vs schedule #211, losing by 1 at BYU, 12 at Oregon, two best teams they’ve played. Cougars split two road games, but win was at crosstown rival Rice. Houston is #284 experience team that grabs 39.7% of its missed shots (#3); they start two sophs, two juniors. South Carolina is 6-3 vs schedule #27, losing its top 100 games, by 23 to Wichita State, 6 to Northern Iowa in tourney in Mexico. Gamecocks are experience team #328 that is shooting only 27.7% on arc (#316); their eFG% defense is #30 in country.
Oklahoma State is 7-1 vs schedule #129, losing last game at home to Georgetown; Cowboys are continuity team #23 that is forcing turnovers 22.4% of time— they’re 3-1 in top 100 games, beating Syracuse/Ole Miss on neutral floor- their eFG% is #13 in country. Wichita State is 7-1 vs schedule #316, with only loss by 12 to West Virginia; best team they’ve beaten is #102 South Carolina. Shockers are experience team #338 that is forcing turnovers 23.7% of time, has eFG% defense #37- this is their first true road game of season- they split two neutral court games.
Florida State won six of last seven games wth Clemson, winning five of last six visits to the Palmetto State. Favorites covered five of last six series games. FSU is 7-2 vs schedule #33, with road losses by 2 at Pitt, 16 at Indiana. Seminoles also have three top 40 wins; they’re forcing turnovers 26% of time (#10). Clemson is 5-3 vs schedule #202, losing last two games, including an 18-point loss at Minnesota in they only road game. Tigers are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, beating TCU by a hoop for only win. Clemson is forcing turnovers 23% of time (#44).
Valparaiso allowed 81+ points in losing its last three D-I games; they’re 4-4 vs schedule #127; Crusaders are experience team #253 that is 1-4 vs top 200 teams, with lone win by 2 vs Toledo in their season opener. Valpo has #338 eFG% defense, and they’re forcing turnovers 23.4% of time, so if you get a shot against them, its a good one. Central Michigan is 4-2 vs schedule #317, with only top 200 win over #159 Sam Houston State. Chippewas are experience team #4 that turns ball over only 14.3% of time (#5)- they’re playing a fast (#18) pace.
Texas-Texas A&M are meeting for first time in four years; Longhorns won five of last six series games. Longhorns are 7-1 vs schedule #249; their best win was at Purdue, their only loss was to Georgetown on a neutral floor. Texas is forcing turnovers 22.2% of time (#57) while playing slow pace (#300). Aggies lost last three games, scoring 51.7 ppg; they’re 3-4 vs schedule #238, with all three wins vs teams outside the top 200. A&M have #340 eFG%; they’re making only 23.9% of their 3’s (#347), are 0-4 when allowing more than 57 points.
Purdue won its last six games with Northwestern, winning last three visits to Evanston by 8-4-13 points. Boilers won four of last five games, whipping shorthanded Virginia last game- they’re 5-3 vs schedule #50, forcing turnovers 22.3% of time (#67) while playing pace #344. Purdue lost its only true road game, by 10 at Marquette. Northwestern is 4-3 vs schedule #202 after winning by 18 at BC during week, their first true road game; Wildcats are experience team #296 that split two top 100 games, losing by 13 to Pitt, beating Providence by 14.
DePaul is 8-0 vs schedule #181 after beating Texas Tech in OT during week; Blue Demons are experience team #198 that is forcing turnovers 23% of time (#45)- they’ve got three top 100 wins- their eFG% defense is #17 in country. DePaul beat MAC’s Central Michigan by 13 last week. Buffalo is 4-3 vs schedule #116; Bulls split their two top 100 games, losing to UConn by 11, beating Harvard by 12, both on a neutral floor. Buffalo is forcing turnovers 21.4% of time while playing pace #7; they lost their only true road game, 90-74 at Vanderbilt.
Gonzaga beat Washington last four years, three times by 16+ points; they nipped Huskies 81-79 at home LY, even though Washington shot 59.4% inside arc. Gonzaga is 9-1 vs schedule #313, losing by 18 to Michigan on neutral floor- they won only true road game TY by 30 at Texas A&M. Washington won its last five games, is 7-1 vs schedule #253, with only loss by 13 to Tennessee on a neutral floor. Huskies are only team to beat Baylor this year; they’re forcing turnovers 21.8% of time (#79)- they’re experience team #329 that is getting 22.8% of its points on foul line (#38).
Michigan State is 9-0 vs Rutgers in Big 14 play, winning three of five series games played here by 28+ points, but Spartans are struggling this year, 5-3 vs schedule #12- they’re 2-3 in top 100 tilts, beating Seton Hall by 3, Georgia by 8. State is experience team #274 that is shooting only 32.9% on arc (#173). Rutgers 6-2 vs schedule #337, losing their only top 100 game by 11 at Pitt; Scarlet Knights are experience team #239 whose only top 200 win was by hoop ver SF Austin, the team that won at Duke. Rutgers is forcing turnovers 22.1% of time (#72).
Seton Hall beat Iowa State 84-76 in final of Battle for Atlantis nine days ago, making 8-20 on arc; Pirates haven’t played since then- they’re 6-2 vs schedule #136, losing two of three top 100 games (lost to Michigan St/Oregon). Hall is shooting 39.5% on arc (#27); they’re getting 35.2% of their points on arc (#86). Iowa State is 5-3 vs schedule #120, losing three of four top 100 tilts- their best win was over #84 Alabama. Cyclones are experience team #237 that forces turnovers 23.9% of time (#25)- they’re shooting 57.2% inside arc (#7).
@ Talking Stick Arena, Phoenix
Tulane is 7-1 under new coach Hunter, vs schedule #350 after going 24-69 the last three years; Green Wave is continuity team #349 that forces turnovers 26.2% of time (#9)- they split their two top 200 games, losing by 14 to Miss State, beating Utah by 4, both on neutral floor. Saint Louis is 7-1 vs schedule #296, with lone loss by 17 at home to Seton Hall. Billikens are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, winning by 22-12-9 points; they’re experience team #310 that is shooting only 53.9% on foul line, 2nd-worst %age in country.
Dayton is 6-1 vs schedule #160, with only loss to Kansas in OT of finals at Maui Classic; Flyers are #91 experience team that has top 100 wins over Georgia/Va Tech- they’re shooting 67.4% inside arc (#1 in country), have best eFG% in country. Dayton has scored 80+ points in every game this season. Saint Mary’s won its last seven games since a home loss to Winthrop; Gaels are 8-1 vs schedule #304, with top 50 wins over Wisconsin/Utah State. Saint Mary’s is shooting 42% on arc (#4); their eFG% is #31 in country.