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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Saturday, March 16
Saturday’s 5 interesting games
SEC tournament (@ Nashville)
Mississippi State vs Auburn (-7.5)
Mississippi State (21-12, 10-10)
KenPom rating: 29
Tempo: 199
Experience: 56
Continuity: 29
Miss State won last two nites, giving up 60-56 points.
Miss State is 4-6 ATS as an SEC underdog.
Bulldogs led 38-19 at half Friday; they played 4 starters 30:00+
Miss State has #38 eFG% defense in country.
Bulldogs are turning ball over 18.7% of time (#290).
Last time Bulldogs won two games in same SEC tournament: 2010.
Miss State is 5-9 vs top 50 teams.
Auburn (25-7, 14-5)
KenPom rating: 4
Tempo: 57
Experience: 119
Continuity: 77
Auburn won its last four games, all by 14+ points.
Tigers are 13-4 ATS as an SEC favorite.
Auburn has #2 eFG% defense in country.
Tigers are 13-7 vs teams in the top 100.
Tigers won SEC tourney in 2019; overall, since 2006, they’re 9-15 in this event.
Auburn had stress-free game Friday; no one played more than 25:00.
Home team won both series games this season.
Auburn won six of last seven games vs Miss State.
Texas A&M vs Florida
Texas A&M (20-13, 11-9)
KenPom rating: 42
Tempo: 278
Experience: 46
Continuity: 44
Texas A&M won last five games, scoring 81.6 ppg.
Aggies played four guys 31:00+ in yesterday’s 97-87 win.
Aggies are #1 team in country on offensive boards.
A&M was 11-26 on arc Friday; for year, they’re 28.2% on arc (#356)
Last 2+ years, Texas A&M is 7-2 in SEC tourney.
Texas A&M is 7-5 vs teams ranked in the top 50.
Florida (23-10, 13-7)
KenPom rating: 27
Tempo: 22
Experience: 78
Continuity: 284
Florida won eight its last 11 games.
Last two days, Gators scored 85-102 points.
Florida played 3 guys 30:00+ in Friday’s 80-possession win.
Florida is #6 team on offensive boards.
Gators are 7-7 in games decided by 6 or less points.
Florida won SEC tourney in 2014; they’re 7-8 in tourney since then.
Florida is 5-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Texas A&M (-3.5) beat Florida 67-66 at home February 3.
Gators led that game by 13 in first half.
Aggies won last five series games, all by 3 or fewer points.
Big X tournament (@ Kansas City)
Houston vs Iowa State
Houston (30-3, 17-3)
KenPom rating: 1
Tempo: 348
Experience: 95
Continuity: 123
Houston won its last 11 games (7-2 ATS last nine)
Cougars have the best eFG% defense in country.
Houston is also forcing turnovers 24.9% of time (#3)
Cougars are #11 team on offensive boards.
Houston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 conference tourney games.
Cougars are 15-3 vs top 50 teams.
Houston isn’t deep; five guys played 30:00+ Friday.
Iowa State (26-7, 15-5)
KenPom rating: 9
Tempo: 174
Experience: 123
Continuity: 200
Iowa State won 10 of its last 12 games.
Cyclones are 5-3 ATS as Big X underdogs.
Iowa State is forcing turnovers 25.9% of time (#2)
Cyclones are 15-7 vs teams in top 100.
Last four years, Iowa State is 3-3 in Big X tournament.
From 2014-19, ISU won this event 4 times in 6 six years.
Cyclones played four guys 30:00+ last night.
Home team won both meetings this season.
Cyclones were first team to beat Houston this year.
This is their first year as conference rivals.
ACC tournament (@ Washington DC)
NC State vs North Carolina
NC State (21-14, 13-11)
KenPom rating: 66
Tempo: 140
Experience: 15
Continuity: 243
NC State has won four games in four days to get here.
Wolfpack was 2-7 in last nine regular season games.
NC State played four guys 35:00+ in yesterday’s OT win.
Wolfpack hit a 3 at the buzzer to force OT last night.
Wolfpack is 7-6 ATS as an ACC underdog.
NC State is 3-8 vs teams in the top 50.
Wolfpack is in ACC final for first time since 2007.
NC State has to win this game to make NCAA’s.
North Carolina (27-6, 19-3)
KenPom rating: 7
Tempo: 45
Experience: 6
Continuity: 179
UNC won its last eight games (5-3 ATS)
Tar Heels are 13-7 ATS as an ACC favorite.
UNC has #13 eFG% defense in the country.
Tar Heels are #13 team in country on defensive boards.
UNC is 17-5 vs teams ranked in the top 100.
UNC hasn’t won an ACC tournament since 2016.
Tar Heels are #333 in bench minutes; they played 4 guys 33:00+ Friday.
North Carolina beat NC State 67-54/79-70 in this year’s meetings.
Tar Heels won 11 of last 13 series games.
Mountain West tournament (@ UNLV)
San Diego State vs New Mexico
San Diego State (24-9, 13-7)
KenPom rating: 18
Tempo: 252
Experience: 45
Continuity: 119
San Diego State won six of its last nine games.
Aztecs trailed 34-17 early on Friday.
Aztecs played eight guys 12:00+ yesterday.
San Diego State has #36 eFG% defense in country.
San Diego State starts five seniors.
Last six years, Aztecs are 3-3 in MW tourney finals.
Aztecs are 12-10 vs teams ranked in top 100.
New Mexico (24-9, 12-8)
KenPom rating: 30
Tempo: 5
Experience: 41
Continuity: 222
New Mexico won the last three nights to get here.
Lobos are #51 team in country on offensive boards.
This game starts 16 hours after their game ended Friday nite.
New Mexico are #133 in country in bench minutes.
Lobos are 9-8 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Lobos haven’t won MW tournament since 2014 (won it 3 years in row back then).
Home team won both meetings this season.
Aztecs won seven of last ten series games.