NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Tennessee was 8-15 on arc, had only six turnovers in 87-75 win at Vanderbilt Jan 14; Vols are 8-4 in last 12 series games, but Commodores won by 8-14 points in last two visits to Knoxville. Tennessee is 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 17-2-9-20 points. Vandy won three of last four games, is 5-1 as a road underdog; they’re 4-3 on SEC road, losing by 3 at Alabama, 8 at Georgia, 20 at Missouri. SEC home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-12 against the spread.
Wake Forest lost three of last four games, is 4-3 at home in ACC, 2-1 as home favorites; they are 5-2 in ACC allowing 80 or less points. Pittsburgh won three of last four games, covered five of last six; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 11-5-5-2-8 points, with one road win at lowly Boston College. Pitt is 3-1 vs Wake Forest in ACC games; home side won all three regular season games. Pitt lost 69-66 here two years ago, beat Deacons in double OT LY. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 15-13-1 vs spread this season.
Xavier lost its last three games; they have severe injury issues. Musketeers are 1-4 as a road underdog, with road losses by 25-5-12-22 points. Seton Hall is 4-6 in its last ten games; they’re 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-31-13-2-6 points. Xavier beat Seton Hall 72-70 at home February; they were down 4 at half, by 6 with 11:21 left. Pirates are 5-3 in Big East meetings, winning all three played here, by 9-8-9 points, Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-4 against the spread.
Duke won its last seven games, with three of those on road; Blue Devils are 1-2 as favorites on road. Syracuse lost its last three games by 5-4-6 points; they’re 6-1 at home in ACC, with only loss by 4 to Louisville. Orangemen are 3-0-1 as home underdogs. Duke won three of last four games wth Syracuse, winning 80-72 in last visit here couple years ago- Orangemen won at Duke LY. Duke is shooting 40.9% on arc in ACC play; will shooting in dome drag that number down? ACC road favorites of 4 or less points are 7-4-1 vs spread.
Central Florida led Temple 38-11 at half of 77-53 drubbing of the Owls Dec 31; UCF was +20 on boards, outscored Temple 24-8 on line as they snapped 4-game skid vs Owls. Knights lost last three visits here, by 8-6-2 points. UCF won its last two games after a 1-6 skid; Knights are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 15-5-11-18-10 points. Temple lost three of last four games; they’re 2-3 as home favorites- they’re 1-5-1 vs spread in last seven games overall. AAC home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-1-1 vs spread.
Maryland scored 59 points in second half of 85-78 win at Minnesota Jan 28; they made 11-18 on arc, had only 7 turnovers (+3) for game. Terps won two of three series games; winning 70-58 in Gophers’ last visit here, in ’15. Young Terps (#317 experience) lost three of last five games, are 3-1 as home favorites- their two Big 14 home losses were by total of 3 points. Minnesota won its last five games; they’re 4-3 on Big 14 road, 3-3 as a road underdog, with road losses by 18-2-6 points. Big 14 home favorites of 4 or less points are 15-13 vs spread this season.
Texas A&M is 2-5 on SEC road, 2-3 as a road underdog; they split last six games SU overall. Arkansas won/covered its last three games; they’re 8-2 in last ten games. Hogs are 3-3 as home favorites- they’re 4-3 at home, with all four wins by 13+ points. Arkansas won 62-60 at Texas A&M Jan 14, after trailing by 12 with 12:51 left. Teams combined to shoot 41% inside arc- it was first win for visitor in seven SEC series meetings. Aggies lost last three trips to Arkansas, by 11-6-3 points. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-17 vs spread this season.
Kansas State won 96-88 at Oklahoma State Jan 18; OSU led 54-51 at the half- they lost despite going 12-22 on arc. Wildcats won four of last five series games, winning last five played here, by 19-6-3-10-16 points. K-State lost five of last seven games, last three at home; they’re 0-4-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-11-4 points. OSU won seven of last eight games, is 4-1 as a road underdog- they won last four road games, after losing first three, by 3-4-7 points. Big X home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-7 against the spread.
Houston never trailed, led 36-12 at half of 62-46 win in Hartford Dec 28; Cougars are 4-2 in AAC games with UConn, winning two of three played here- Huskies won 69-57 here LY. UConn won four in row, eight of last ten games; they’re 2-3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 2-9-20-14 points— their last three wins were by total of 5 points. Houston won five of last six games, is 2-3 as a home favorite- they’ve won AAC home games by 3-14-13-18 points. Single digit home favorites are 17-9-1 vs spread in AAC games.
Oregon is 4-2 on Pac-12 road, 4-1 as a road favorite, with road wins by 22-19-6-11 points- they won last three games overall, by 11-18-28 points. California lost its last two games, is 6-1 at home in Pac-12, with only loss by 5 to Arizona- three of their four Pac-12 losses were by five points. Oregon made 11-24 on arc, routed Cal 86-63 at home Jan 19; game was 44-30 at half. Ducks won three of last four series games, but Cal won six of last seven visits here, losing 68-65 in LY’s visit. Pac-12 road favorites of 4 or less points are 4-6 vs spread.
Louisville won its last three games, by 5-4-4 points; they’re 4-3 on ACC road- favorites are 6-0-1 vs spread in those games, with Cardinals 0-3 as a road underdog. North Carolina won four of last five games, is 5-2 as a home favorite, failing to cover vs Pitt/Notre Dame. UNC is grabbing 42.4% of their own missed shots; can they do that vs Louisville? Louisville/Carolina split four ACC meetings; home side won all three in regular season. Cardinals lost 72-71 in last visit here, in 2015. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 15-13-1 vs spread this season.
Villanova was 14-0 until they lost 66-58 at Butler Jan 4; Bulldogs shot 58% inside arc in brickfest where teams combined to go 11-46 on arc- it was Butler’s first win in seven Big East tries vs Villanova- they lost last three visits to Philly, by 19-12-10 points. Villanova won its last seven games, is 3-4 as a home favorite, 0-3 vs spread in last three home games. Bulldogs won three of last four games; they’re 4-3 on road, 1-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-11-6 points. Big East home favorites of from 10-15 points are 7-2 vs spread this season.
Boise State won five of its last six games, is 3-1 as a road underdog- they’re 5-2 on MW road, losing by 9 in Fresno, 5 at New Mexico. Nevada won five of last seven games, is 5-2 as a home favorite with home wins by 25-3-7-17-27-11 points- they lost at home to Fresno State. Nevada held Boise State to 35.1% from floor in 76-57 win at Boise Jan 25, just second win in last eight series games for Wolf Pack. Broncos won last two visits to Reno. Mountain West home favorites of 6+ points are 11-14-1 vs spread this season.
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NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Duke at Syracuse
The Duke Blue Devils journey to the Carrier Dome Wednesday for a college hoops matchup with Syracuse Orange. Oddsmakers opened Blue Devils -4.5 point road favorites.
In their last game the Blue Devils (22-5, 11-15 ATS) squeeked past Wake Forest 99-94 at Cameron Indoor Stadium but failed at the betting window as -11.5 point home chalk. Blue Devils on a roll have now won seven consecutive games but are just 3-4 against the betting line over the span. Duke no slouches in scoring are netting 81.9 points/game lead by Luke Kennard (20.0) and three other players in double digits. Defensively, Blue Devils are pretty solid at keeping the ball out of their own basket allowing 68.5 per/game on 43.2% shooting.
Orange (16-12, 11-12 ATS) upended 71-65 at Georgia Tech over the weekend as -4 point road faves have lost three straight both straight-up and against the spread. Orange, not as proficient in the scoring department tally 76.1 per/contest lead by Andrew White III (17.9) and two other players dropping double digits. Coach Jim Boeheim's troops rank up there with Duke defensively allowing opponents 70.3 per/game on 42.4% from the field.
Syracuse ridding a three game skid can ratched up tension for supporters. However, backers can take comfort in knowing Orange are a money-making 6-1 SU/ATS this year at the Carrier Dome vs a conference rival and that Blue Devils have been a money-pit this campaign facing the ACC posting a 5-9 ATS record including 2-4 ATS away from Durham.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Butler at Villanova
Villanova (26-2 straight up, 14-13 against the spread) owns a three-game lead in the Big East standings over second-place Butler with its 13-2 record in league play. The Wildcats are undefeated in 13 home games with a 6-6 spread record.
As of Tuesday night, most betting shops had Villanova installed as a 10-point home favorite.
Since losing 74-72 at Marquette on Jan. 24, Jay Wright’s squad won seven in a row. However, Villanova is mired in a 2-7 ATS record in its last nine games. The Wildcats are returning home here after three consecutive road games, including Saturday’s 92-70 win at Seton Hall as 6.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Kris Jenkins drained 8-of-10 shots from the field, including 5-of-6 launches from 3-point land, to score 22 points. Jalen Brunson also scored 22 points and dished out 10 assists. Josh Hart had 19 points, while Mikal Bridges finished with 15.
Villanova is No. 2 in the Associated Press’s poll and the RPI Rankings. The Wildcats are 6-1 against the RPI Top 25, 9-1 versus the Top 50 and 15-2 against the Top 100. They have wins at Purdue, at Creighton, at Xavier and at Seton Hall, in addition to neutral-court victories over Wake Forest, Notre Dame and La Salle. Wright’s team also has home scalps of Xavier, Seton Hall, Virginia, Marquette and Providence.
Villanova is ranked No. 2 in the nation in free-throw percentage (80.6%) and No. 6 in field-goal percentage (49.8%). The Wildcats are 17th in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 63.0 points per game.
Hart paces Villanova in scoring (18.8 PPG) and rebounding (6.5 RPG). He has a 91/52 assists-to-turnovers ratio, 44 steals and is burying 50.8 percent of his shots, including 40.0 percent from long distance. Brunson (14.6 PPG) has handed out a team-best 125 assists while making 54.1 percent of his shots from the field and 39.8 percent from 3-point land. Jenkins is averaging 13.3 points and 4.2 RPG, while Mikal Bridges (10.8 PPG) leads the team in field-goal percentage (56.6%) and steals (1.8 SPG).
Butler (21-6 SU, 15-10 ATS) has won back-to-back games over the Big East’s doormats since dropping a 71-65 decision at Providence on Feb. 11. The Bulldogs first beat St. John’s by a 110-86 count at home before besting DePaul 82-66 Sunday as 17-point home ‘chalk.’ Nate Fowler scored a team-high 15 points for the winners, while Kelan Martin contributed 14 points and eight rebounds. Avery Woodson made 4-of-6 attempts from 3-point land to score 12 points, while Tyler Lewis produced 10 points and eight assists without committing a turnover.
Butler has won five of its nine road assignments while posting a 4-5 spread record.
Butler is No. 22 in the AP Top 25 and No. 13 in the RPI. The Bulldogs are 4-2 against the RPI Top 25, 7-2 versus the Top 50 and 15-4 against the Top 100. They have home wins over the likes of Northwestern, Cincinnati, Villanova, Xavvier, Vermont, Providence and Marquette. Chris Holtmann’s team also neutral-court triumphs over Vanderbilt, Arizona and Indiana, in addition to road wins at Seton Hall, at Utah, at Georgetown and at Marquette.
When these schools met at Hinkle Fieldhouse on Jan. 4, Butler captured a 66-58 win as a 1.5-point home underdog. The 124 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 143-point total. Kethan Savage and Andrew Chrabascz scored 13 points apiece, while Martin added 12 points and six boards. Brunson scored a game-high 23 points in the losing effort.
Martin leads Butler in scoring (15.5 PPG) and rebounding (5.7 RPG). Chrabascz (11.6 PPG) is the only double-figure scorer for this balanced offense. Meanwhile, Lewis (6.9 PPG) has a remarkable 111/29 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
Butler owns a 3-1 record both SU and ATS in four games as an underdog this season.
The ‘under’ is 18-9 overall for the Wildcats, 8-4 in their home games. They’ve seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in their last eight contests.
The ‘over’ is 12-11-2 overall for the Bulldogs, but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 5-4 clip in their road outings.
Louisville at North Carolina
North Carolina is alone atop the ACC standings with a one-game lead over both Louisville and Duke, who have 10-4 conference records. FSU and Notre Dame are only 1.5 games off the pace being set by UNC, which is 11-3 in ACC action. -- As of Tuesday night, most spots had North Carolina (23-5 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) listed as a six-point home favorite. Roy Williams’s squad is unbeaten in 14 home games with a 9-4 spread record. The Tar Heels have been single-digit home ‘chalk’ three times, compiling a 2-1 spread record.
North Carolina is off of Saturday’s 65-41 win over Virginia as a six-point home favorite. The Tar Heels dominated the glass with a 40-23 rebounding edge. Justin Jackson led the way with 20 points, six assists and four rebounds. Kennedy Meeks added 13 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots.
UNC remains in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels are No. 8 in the AP Top 25 and No. 5 in the RPI. They are 4-2 against the Top 25, 9-3 versus the Top 50 and 13-5 against the Top 100. Williams’s club has a slew of quality home wins, including victories over FSU, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, Monmouth, Tennessee, Chattanooga, Syracuse and Pittsburgh. UNC also has neutral-floor wins over Oklahoma State and Wisconsin, in addition to road wins at Wake Forest and at Clemson.
UNC is sixth in the nation in scoring, averaging 86.9 PPG. Four players are averaging double figures led by Jackson, who is averaging 18.6 PPG. Joel Berry II (14.6 PPG) is hitting 41.2 percent of his 3’s while also sporting a 104/56 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Berry has a team-high 39 steals. Meeks is averaging 12.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, while Isaiah Hicks is averaging 12.5 points and 5.5 RPG.
Louisville (22-5 SU, 16-8-1 ATS) has won outright in five of eight road contests, posting a 4-2-1 spread record. The Cardinals have been underdogs five times, going 2-2-1 ATS with a pair of outright victories.
Rick Pitino’s team has won three straight games and six of its last seven, including Saturday’s 94-90 non-covering win over Virginia Tech as a 12.5-point home favorite. Donovan Mitchell led U of L with 26 points, burying 5-of-7 from 3-point range. Quentin Snider added 19 points and four assists, while Jaylen Johnson finished with 16 points and eight rebounds.
Louisville is No. 7 in the AP poll and No. 3 in the RPI. Pitino’s bunch has a 3-5 record against the Top 25, a 6-5 mark versus the Top 50 and a 12-5 ledgers against the Top 100. The Cardinals have a Top-50 win over Wichita State on a neutral court, but the rest of their Top 50 wins have come at home. Those include victories over Purdue, Kentucky, Duke, Miami and Virginia Tech. They’ve won at Georgia Tech, at Syracuse and at Pitt, in addition to claiming a neutral-court scalp over Indiana.
Mitchell, a sophomore guard, leads Louisville in scoring (15.6 PPG), assists (2.7 APG) and steals (2.1 SPG). Snider (12.5 PPG) has an 86/32 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
The ‘under’ is 15-10-1 overall for UNC, 10-3 in its home games.
The ‘under’ is 13-11-1 overall for U of L, but the ‘over’ is 5-2 in its seven lined road assignments.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
The nation’s best ATS teams are Gonzaga (19-5-1), SMU (17-5-1), South Dakota (18-7-1), Middle Tennessee (19-8 ), St. Peter’s (16-6), Wofford (18-8 ) and Colorado State (15-6).
The nation's worst ATS squads include Idaho State (6-17), Cleveland State (8-17-1), Washington (8-17-1), Colorado (9-17-1), Ohio State (9-17), Arkansas-Little Rock (7-15) and Kansas (8-16-1).
Tennessee will host Vandy on Wednesday in a crucial SEC contest for Rick Barnes’s team, which is currently in Joe Lunardi’s (of ESPN.com) First Four Out (of the NCAA field). The Volunteers were favored by three on Tuesday night. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
Xavier’s Trevon Bluiett has missed back-to-back games with an ankle injury and is ‘questionable’ Wednesday at Seton Hall. Bluiett averages 17.9 points and 5.8 rebounds per game for the Musketeers.
Oklahoma State is on fire as it heads to Kansas State for a Big 12 showdown Wednesday night. The Cowboys, who were 2.5-point underdogs Tuesday night, have won eight of their last nine games while compiling a 7-2 spread record. They’ve covered the number in five consecutive games as underdogs, winning four of those outright.
Florida won its ninth straight game Tuesday by besting South Carolina, 81-66, as a 7.5-point home favorite. Canyon Barry played sparingly and didn’t score while dealing with an ankle injury that had him as a game-time decision. It wouldn’t matter, though, as UF got 26 points from KeVaughn Allen. Even without John Egbunu, the Gators look like a legit Final Four contender.
Auburn snapped a three-game losing streak and handed LSU its 14th consecutive defeat Tuesday night in Baton Rouge. Bruce Pearl’s team captured a 98-75 win as a 3.5-point road favorite. The ‘over’ improved to 16-3 in LSU’s last 19 games when the 173 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 171.5-point total. LSU’s Brandon Eddlestone hit a 3-pointer with 13 seconds remaining to give ‘over’ supporters the winner.
Monmouth improved to 24-5 with its 14th straight win Tuesday at Fairfield, 82-62. The Hawks took the cash as 5.5-point favorites.
Trends to Watch - Wednesday
VegasInsider.com
Top 10 Tangle
North Carolina hosts Louisville in Chapel Hill in a battle of Top 10 clubs. It's the first meeting between the Atlantic Coast Conference heavyweights this season. UNC was tripped up 71-65 at KFC Yum! Center last season, and the Tar Heels have knocked off the Cardinals just once in three tries since Louisville joined the ACC. UNC is also 0-3 ATS in their past three regular season meetings against Louisville.
The Cardinals have won six of their past seven games overall, but they're 1-3 ATS over their past four outings and 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine as a road underdog. They have been money on the road, however, going 4-1-1 ATS in their past six trips away from the banks of the Ohio River. Total bettors have also made plenty of money off of Louisville, as the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in their past five outings, and 9-2 over their past 11 games overall. The 'over' is also 5-2 in Louisville's past seven road outings.
The Tar Heels have rebounded nicely after their loss Feb. 9 in the 'Battle of the Blues', routing both North Carolina State and Virginia each by 24 points. While UNC is just 2-4 ATS in their past six outings, they're 7-2 ATS in their past nine games at the Dean Dome, and 19-7 ATS in their 26 overall at home. They're also 19-7 ATS in their past 26 as a home favorite. While the over is what Louisville has been all about lately, the 'under' is 5-1-1 in UNC's past seven overall and 4-0 in their past four as a home favorite.
Champagne Super 'Nova
Defending national champ Villanova will welcome Butler in their penultimate home game of the regular season. These two sides met in Indianapolis back on Jan. 4, and it was the Bulldogs handing the Wildcats their first loss of the year, 66-58. You know revenge will be on the mind of 'Nova in this one.
The Wildcats have won all 13 of their games on the home floor this season, but they're 0-4 ATS over their past four outings in Philadelphia. They are also just 2-6 ATS in their past eight league games and 2-8 ATS in their past nine as a favorite. Villanova has also covered just twice in their past seven against teams with an overall winning mark. On the flip side, Butler is 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven as an underdog, and 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 against teams with a winning overall record.
The 'under' has been the prevailing theme for both sides lately, going 4-1-1 in Butler's past six against teams with a winning overall record. The under is also 4-1 in their past five road outings. For 'Nova, the under is 14-4 in their past 18 overall, 12-4 in their past 16 league games and 3-1-1 in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark. The under is also 4-1-1 in the past six meetings between these sides.
Big Ten Two-fer
A pair of 20-plus win teams hook up in College Park when Minnesota battles Maryland at the Xfinity Center. The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall, and 4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. However, they're just 11-27 ATS in their past 38 as a road underdog and 17-35-1 ATS in their past 53 overall on the road The Terrapins are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four at home, and 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 overall. They're also 12-3-3 ATS in their past 18 against teams with a winning straight up mark.
Rutgers hosts Michigan, looking to play spoiler to the Wolverines and their flickering postseason chances. Michigan is favored by eight points and can ill-afford a misstep against an inferior opponent. While Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their past five as a favorite, they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five on the road when favored. They're also a dismal 2-6 ATS in their past eight overall on the road. Rutgers is just 18-41 ATS in their past 59 conference games, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600.
To Summit Up
North Dakota State travels to Oral Roberts looking for their 19th victory of the season, while ORU looks to avoid it's 22nd loss in 30 tries. Based on the records, it might be a bit of a surprise that NDSU is favored by just a bucket. However, the Bison are just 17-36 ATS in their past 53 road games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five as a road favorite. They're also a dismal 4-9 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning percentage under .400. ORU has really struggled, though, going 1-7 ATS in their past eight overall, and 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight as an underdog. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 in this series, although the Bison are just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Oral Roberts
Southern Charms
Wofford has struggled with a 14-15 SU record this season, but they have been decent against the number. They'll take on a terrible Virginia Military Institute side which has already lost 20 games overall. Wofford is 10-2 ATS in their past 12 road games, and 17-5 ATS in their past 22 overall. They're also 10-4 ATS in their past 14 SoCon games. The Keydets are a dismal 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 as an underog and 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven against teams with a straight up losing mark.
A pair of 20-plus win clubs hook up when Furman meets East Tennessee State. The Bucs have won 22 games and are playing like the days when they had Keith 'Mister' Jennings running the show. The Paladins of Furman have covered nine of their past 11, and four of their past five on the road. They're also 7-2 ATS in their past nine as underdogs. ETSU is 11-5 ATS in their past 16 as home favorites, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five at home against teams with a winning road mark and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall as a favorite.