Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 8/18/20
NBA public betting, line movement, sharp money for August 18
Patrick Everson
Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis will see plenty of each other the next several days, in the Trail Blazers-Lakers playoff series. The Lakers are 5.5-point favorites in Game 1 on Tuesday night.
NBA betting odds are on the board and drawing dollars as four more postseason series take the floor. The marquee matchup on Tuesday’s NBA playoffs schedule is the last one, with the top-seeded Lakers facing the No. 8 Trail Blazers in the Western Conference quarterfinals.
Circa Sports provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.
NBA line movement
Portland had to win its way through the NBA regular-season bubble to nab the eighth seed, including a Saturday play-in game against the Memphis Grizzlies. Damian Lillard has been electric, and for the moment, the line is stagnant for a 9 p.m. ET tipoff. Circa Sports risk supervisor Nick Kalikas said the Lakers opened -5.5, where they were Monday night, while the total moved from 228.5 to 229.5.
The Rockets and Thunder meet in the preceding game, at 6:30 p.m. ET, in the West’s 4-5 matchup. That line is also stable at Circa, with the Thunder -1.5. And in the day’s first game, at 1:30 p.m. ET, the Bucks moved from -11 to -12 against the Magic in the East’s 1-vs.-8 series.
NBA sharp money
The Magic-Bucks series got some early professional attention, leading to that 1-point move at Circa Sports.
“Despite the high opening price, we still got hit with early sharp action on the Bucks -11,” Kalikas said.
NBA public betting
Along with the sharp Milwaukee play, there’s no shortage of Bucks believers among public bettors.
“Our parlay liability is already pretty heavy on the Bucks, as well,” Kalikas said. “It looks like we’ll be hoping for the Magic to play well.”
As for Blazers-Lakers, Kalikas said there’s limited two-way action so far, and while the total is up a point to 229.5, it’s not really a big liability yet. Likewise, action on Rockets-Thunder Game 1 is light so far.
“We’re seeing a little more action on Rockets moneyline early on, so we’ve adjusted our price accordingly a few pennies,” Kalikas said.
761ORLANDO -762 MILWAUKEE
ORLANDO is 21-5 ATS (15.5 Units) after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
767PORTLAND -768 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.
769MIAMI -770 INDIANA
INDIANA is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.
771OKLAHOMA CITY -772 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more in the current season.
NBA
Dunkel
Tuesday, August 18
Orlando @ Milwaukee
Game 761-762
August 18, 2020 @ 1:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
110.311
Milwaukee
124.777
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 14 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 11 1/2
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-11 1/2); Under
Miami @ Indiana
Game 769-770
August 18, 2020 @ 4:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Miami
117.276
Indiana
119.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 2
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(+3 1/2); Over
Oklahoma City @ Houston
Game 771-772
August 18, 2020 @ 6:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
118.500
Houston
112.421
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 6
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1 1/2
225
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-1 1/2); Under
Portland @ LA Lakers
Game 767-768
August 18, 2020 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Portland
120.952
LA Lakers
115.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 5 1/2
249
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5 1/2
228 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+5 1/2); Over
NBA
Tuesday, August 18
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Trend Report
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Orlando @ Milwaukee
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Orlando's last 11 games on the road
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
Milwaukee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Orlando
Miami @ Indiana
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games on the road
Indiana
Indiana is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Indiana is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Miami
Oklahoma City @ Houston
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Portland @ LA Lakers
Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing Portland
NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, August 18
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ORLANDO (33 - 40) vs. MILWAUKEE (56 - 17) - 8/18/2020, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 95-71 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 79-59 ATS (+14.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 84-62 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 76-57 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 74-56 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 9-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PORTLAND (36 - 39) vs. LA LAKERS (52 - 19) - 8/18/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 32-40 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 133-170 ATS (-54.0 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
PORTLAND is 26-35 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 22-33 ATS (-14.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 142-106 ATS (+25.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MIAMI (44 - 29) vs. INDIANA (45 - 28) - 8/18/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 39-30 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 8-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 6-5 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA CITY (44 - 28) vs. HOUSTON (44 - 28) - 8/18/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 111-74 ATS (+29.6 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 55-30 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
HOUSTON is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 43-28 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons