Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 4/16/19
Orlando won 12 of its last 14 games, covered six of last eight road games; Magic made 14-29 on arc in Game 1 upset win. Raptors were only 9-14 on foul line Saturday; they were 12-36 on arc. Lowry didn’t score in 34:00 for Toronto, but they were +11 when he was on floor, -14 in 14:00 he sat out. Orlando is 3-2-1 vs spread in its last six visits to Canada. Raptors won seven of last nine games overall, are 4-4 vs spread in last eight home games. Toronto won six of its last nine games with the Magic; six of last eight series games stayed under. Seven of last eight Orlando games went over the total.
Nuggets were 6-28 on arc, Murray was 8-24 from floor in 101-96 home loss in Game 1; Denver missed lot of open shots in 4th quarter. Nuggets are 6-7 SU in their last 13 games, 2-6 vs spread in last eight home games. San Antonio won seven of its last ten games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games. Spurs’ four subs were +32 in Game 1; Denver’s subs were -27. Home side won 10 of last 11 series games; Spurs are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Nuggets are in playoffs for first time in six years; their last first round series win was in ’09. All four Game 1’s on Saturday stayed under the total.
Trailblazers held Thunder to 5-33 on arc in 104-99 Game 1 win; Portland won 16 of its last 19 games; they covered their last four home games. OKC won five of its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 4-9 vs spread in last 13 road games. Thunder are in playoffs for 9th time in last ten years; they lost in first round the last two years. Blazers are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they’re 2-9 in last 11 first round series. Thunder won/covered four of their last four games with Portland; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six visits to Oregon. Five of last seven series games stayed under.
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers
Game 2 – Magic at Raptors – 8:05 PM EST – TNT
Orlando leads series, 1-0
Although both these teams won their respective divisions, many people believed that Toronto would cruise past Orlando. There is still a long way to go in this series, but the Magic stunned the Raptors, 104-101 in Game 1 on Saturday to pick up the franchise’s first playoff victory since 2012 against Indiana. However, the Magic went on to lose the next four games and get knocked out, 4-1.
In the series opener against the Raptors, it was a tale of who would have the ball last as Toronto led by five after one quarter, but Orlando stormed back to grab a 57-49 halftime advantage. The Raptors rallied to take a one-point lead heading into the final quarter as the two went back and forth before D.J. Augustin’s three-pointer with five seconds remaining to go ahead for good.
Orlando cashed as 9 ½-point underdogs, which was the biggest ‘dog to win outright this past weekend. Augustin knocked down 4-of-5 three-point attempts, while scoring 25 points as seven Magic players finished in double-figures. The Magic overcame terrible shooting performances from Nikola Vucevic (3-of-14) and Terrence Ross (2-of-11), but Orlando converted 18-of-20 free throw attempts to beat Toronto for the third time in five tries this season.
Kawhi Leonard paced the Raptors with 25 points in his first playoff game since Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against Golden State in 2017. However, point guard Kyle Lowry was held scoreless on 0-for-7 shooting, as Toronto slipped to 1-9 in the last 10 playoff series openers since 2014.
The Magic have stepped up on the road of late by compiling a 5-2 SU/ATS record in the last seven games away from central Florida. Orlando was riding a seven-game OVER streak prior to the UNDER of 212 in Game 1, while Toronto compiled a 7-2 mark to the OVER in its previous nine home playoff games before the UNDER on Saturday.
The total on Game 2 opened at 210 ½ and the early action pushed the number up to 212. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on the second installment from Canada.
He explained, “The total on Game 1 opened at 216 but closed at 212 ½ and even though the ‘under’ cashed, bettors had to put in a full 48 minutes and they were fortunate to avoid overtime as well. At the end of the day, Saturday’s total result was decided by Toronto’s 19-point effort in the second quarter and Orlando’s 18-point third quarter. The Raptors fell in love with the 3-point shot in the loss as they hoisted up 36 attempts from downtown. That heavy lean to the outside kept them off the free-throw line as Toronto finished 9-of-14 from the stripe, which was well below their FT season average at home (21.5 attempts).”
David added, “The good news for Toronto is that it’s only lost back-to-back games at home twice during this year’s regular season and the second losses in those decisions came by a combined three points. The Raptors have been known to struggle in Game 1’s but Game 2 is a different story, especially when they’re not facing a team led by LeBron James. In their last four Game 2’s at home against opponents that didn’t include LeBron, the Raptors have gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS behind a defense that only allowed 99.5 PPG. Orlando’s win was very impressive on Saturday but the offense still remains inconsistent. In 21 of its 39 losses this season, the Magic were held to 100 or less points. I don’t see Orlando going up 2-0 here and my top lean would be to their Team Total Under (101).”
Game 2 – Spurs at Nuggets – 9:05 PM EST – NBA TV
San Antonio leads series, 1-0
The third underdog to win on Saturday was the Spurs, who knocked off the Nuggets, 101-96 as 5 ½-point underdogs in the 2/7 matchup in the Western Conference. San Antonio became the first team in this series in 11 tries to win on the other team’s court, while avenging a pair of defeats at Pepsi Center from earlier this season, including a 113-85 setback less than two weeks ago.
Not one Spur scored more than 18 points, but San Antonio used a balanced attack, led by DeMar DeRozan’s 18 points and 12 rebounds. Derrick White came back to his home state of Colorado to post 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting, while backcourt mate Bryn Forbes put up a playoff career-high 15 points for the Spurs. San Antonio picked up its first Game 1 playoff victory since 2017 against Memphis in the opening round.
The Nuggets sure didn’t look like a division winner following a 54-win campaign as Denver shot 42% from the floor, including a dreadful 6-of-28 from three-point range. Jamal Murray struggled from the field with an 8-of-24 performance, while failing to hit a shot from long distance in six tries. Nikola Jokic registered a triple-double with 10 points, 14 rebounds, and 14 assists, as Denver lost at home to San Antonio for the first time since January 2017.
The Spurs and Nuggets finished UNDER the total for the fifth time in five matchups this season, while the losing team was limited to below 100 points for the third time. San Antonio improved to 5-10 in its last 15 road playoff games dating back to 2016, as Gregg Popovich’s team last won a postseason series without home-court advantage in 2010 against Dallas in the opening round.
Along with Toronto evening up its series on Tuesday, David believes Denver will get a much-needed split at the Pepsi Center but he feels the sound investment is on the ‘under’ in Game 2. David said, “The perception of the Nuggets as a run ‘n shoot team is gone and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this total drop lower as the series continues. Denver has watched the ‘under’ go 10-2 at home since the All-Star break and it’s held six teams under 100 points during this span, which rarely happens in the NBA these days.”
“The Nuggets are ranked second in scoring defense (103.5 PPG) at home and San Antonio wasn’t exactly sharp in Game 1. Fortunately, Pop’s team was helped with a 31-point night from the bench and I don’t see the craft veterans repeating that effort. I expect another grinder and I would lean to the Team Total Under (101) for the visitor.”
Game 2 – Thunder at Blazers – 10:35 PM EST – TNT
Portland leads series, 1-0
All eyes were on Oklahoma City potentially beating Portland for a fifth time this season in Sunday’s Game 1 at the Moda Center. However, the Thunder couldn’t throw one in the water from downtown (5-of-29), as OKC fell to its division rival for the first time this season in a 104-99 setback as three-point underdogs.
The Blazers snapped several dubious playoff streaks on Sunday, including a 10-game skid dating back to 2016, while capturing their first postseason series opening victory since 2014 against Houston in overtime of round one. Damian Lillard led Portland with 30 points, including drilling a key three-pointer in the final minutes after the Thunder cut the deficit to one point. Mid-season acquisition Enes Kanter burned his former team by posting a 20-point, 18-rebound performance for Portland, who improved to 10-1 the last 11 games when limiting their opponent to less than 100 points.
Thunder All-Stars Paul George and Russell Westbrook combined to score 50 points, but shot a horrific 4-of-19 from three-point range. With that loss, Oklahoma City slipped to 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs since Kevin Durant packed his bags for Golden State following the 2016 season.
In fact, the last road playoff win for Oklahoma City came at Golden State in Game 1 of the 2016 Western Conference Finals. The Blazers last picked up consecutive home playoff victories in the opening round back in 2016 against the Clippers, while the previous occasion in which Portland took a 2-0 series lead at home came way back in the 2000 conference semifinals against Utah, as it eventually won, 4-1.
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Hot & Not Report
Who's Hot and Who's Not
Week of April 15th
After a few weeks hiatus for this piece due to just too many different sports going on, with the NHL and NBA playoffs now underway, I thought it was best to bring it back this week as playoff betting – especially on the hardwood – takes center stage.
And with one playoff game in the books already for every single first round NBA matchup, it will be that league that gets the spotlight shone on them here, with Game 2's spread out over the next few days. So let's get right to it, and hopefully these streaks can continue over the coming days and the rest of the NBA playoffs.
Who's Hot
Backing NBA road teams that won Game 1 outright in the Opening Round: 8-3-1 ATS last five seasons
This situation typically goes against the general consensus in the NBA playoffs, but when you really break it down it does make a lot of sense. I say that because in these Game 2 spots where the home team (the one with the better record) slipped up and lost the series opener, almost everyone expects that team to bounce back in a big way in Game 2 to avoid going out on the road down 0-2 in the series. That line of thought has betting markets backing these home teams hand over fist, inflating numbers and betting these lines like they've already got the box scores from tomorrow's newspaper in their hands.
Yet, that hasn't particularly been the case in recent history, as these road teams that won the series opener don't particularly cool off, at least from an ATS perspective. That 8-3-1 ATS record referenced at the top over the past five seasons is based on closing numbers too, and even in terms of outright results, these road teams are 5-7 SU in those Game 2's. So nearly half the time the past five years we've seen these road teams head home up 2-0 in the series, but if you listen to plenty of talking heads in both the mainstream and sports betting markets, you would never think that was the case. The past two years alone it's been a perfect 5-0 ATS.
With Philadelphia 76ers fans booing their team off the court after Game 1, Toronto Raptors fans saying “it's the same old Raptors” despite the major trade they made last summer, and Denver Nuggets fans chalking up their Game 1 loss to a lack of playoff experience, I hate to say it to fans of those teams, but things may not get any better for you over the next 24-48 hours. We've already seen each point spread on Philly, Toronto, and Denver get bumped up by at least a half-point from open, as the market assumes there is no way these teams don't bounce back.
Yet, don't be afraid to be contrarian in these spots, especially if the spreads keep climbing, and even going out on a limb and taking a piece of the juicy ML odds with Brooklyn, Orlando and/or San Antonio should be considered. Since the start of the 2015 playoffs, these road warriors are 3-4 SU in Game 2's after winning Game 1 outright, and with all the ML prices for those games being upwards of +200 and much higher, that 43% win rate has produced quite a bit of profit.
Who's Not
'Over' bettors are 0-8 in 2019 NBA playoffs
A two-day sample size isn't anything to be concerned about if you got burned on an 'over' or two this weekend in the NBA, but basketball playoffs are funny in that regard in the sense that referees in playoff games (of any sport) tend to eat their whistles, and that has such a big impact on basketball scoring as it is.
The flurry of 'unders' cashing over the weekend weren't just because of a lack of fouls called, as playoff jitters, talent disparity in the matchups, and teams throwing in the towel for that game when they know it's decided all played a part as well, but looking to go 'under' the total in NBA playoff games in general isn't a bad place to start your handicapping.
Last year's NBA playoffs finished with a 37-45 O/U record for their entirety, and that's just blindly taking the 'under' vs the closing line. If you were tracking numbers prior to the games this weekend you would have noticed plenty of early 'under' money pushing openers down quite a bit and that's probably not going to change as the games roll on. Obviously there comes a point where a move is too big of one and combined with certain situational aspects that a specific game may provide, looking 'over' may be the way to go, but even just looking at some of the box scores from this weekend, you'll see a lot of things that were more of a rarity in regular season play.
For instance, of the 32 quarters played across the eight games on Saturday and Sunday, four of them finished with 39 or fewer points combined, and 14 of them were sub-50 point efforts, including all four quarters in the Indiana/Boston game. Say what you will about how that Celtics/Pacers game looked aesthetically from an offensive perspective, but in a league where totals of at least 210 are the new norm, to have 44% of the quarters played in Game 1's not even combine for 50 points, speaks to the increased effort by everyone on the defensive end in the playoffs.
Guys have little to no interest in playing defense during the regular season in this league because of how grinding the schedule is and that sheer offensive talent alone usually wins on most nights, but dangle a potential championship run in front of them during the playoffs and that all changes. Combine with fewer fouls called and subsequently fewer points from the charity stripe, and looking low throughout the playoffs should be a good starting point.
531Orlando -532 Toronto
TORONTO is 230-291 ATS (-90.1 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
533San Antonio -534 Denver
SAN ANTONIO is 32-15 ATS (15.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in the last 3 seasons.
535Oklahoma City -536 Portland
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.
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NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, April 16
ORLANDO (43 - 40) at TORONTO (58 - 25) - 4/16/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 126-162 ATS (-52.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
ORLANDO is 45-35 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
ORLANDO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
ORLANDO is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
ORLANDO is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 37-26 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights since 1996.
TORONTO is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 206-262 ATS (-82.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 7-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-5 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN ANTONIO (49 - 34) at DENVER (54 - 29) - 4/16/2019, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 1091-956 ATS (+39.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 160-118 ATS (+30.2 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 34-24 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA CITY (49 - 34) at PORTLAND (54 - 29) - 4/16/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after a division game this season.
PORTLAND is 46-37 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 8-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 8-5 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Tuesday, April 16
Trend Report
Orlando Magic
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Orlando's last 8 games
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Toronto is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Orlando
Toronto is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Antonio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 10 games on the road
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Denver's last 25 games
Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Denver is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games at home
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
Oklahoma City is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Portland's last 17 games at home
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Portland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
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