Tommy Brunson
Tantalizingly low line tonight on the Boston Celtics - winners of 16 straight games as they hit the court tonight in Miami.
Boston has been going to the well of late, as they have had to rally from double-digits down in each of their last 3 wins. Not only have they been able to come back in those games for the win, but they have also been able to get on top of the impost to run their cover streak to 5 straight.
I have a strong feeling every sucker and their brother will line up at the ticket window for a play tonight on the C's, as Miami has been nothing spectacular with just a 1-3 mark both straight up and against the spread their last 4 games.
This game has "trap" written all over it.
You want to back Boston, go right ahead, but I am telling you tonight is where 16 in a row gets stopped cold.
I'm on Miami!
4* MIAMI
Eric Schroeder
My free play is a total on the NBA card, as I like the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns to score a lot of points.
To be very honest, I'm not ready to invest in college basketball, and I'm going to hold off on the campus hardwood. So when looking at this game, I see these two going at it in the desert.
The return of Eric Bledsoe should be an interesting angle here, as the Bucks are 4-2 since acquiring Bledsoe from the Suns after a controversial tweet showed him the door.
The Bucks - who usually respond after double-digit setsbacks - have lost their last two, but this will be a motivational game for them and Bledsoe. And since the Suns have one of the worst defenses in the league, Milwaukee will be scoring some points tonight.
On the other hand, Phoenix will have no choice but to respond here, and come in after winning two in a row. The Suns have gone over in six of seven against Eastern Conference foes and five of seven overall.
Play this one high.
5* Suns/Bucks Over
Chris Jordan
My free play for Wednesday is on the Los Angeles Lakers for a second straight night. Last night I told you they would beat the Chicago Bulls, and they did. Tonight they face a much worse Sacramento Kings team, and we're only having to lay a point.
The Lakers are playing real good basketball right now, with Kyle Kuzma leading the way. I watched this kid play during the NBA Summer League here in Las Vegas, and I can tell you he is the real deal.
While so many were enamored by Lonzo Ball, I was busy touting Kuzma, who ended being named MVP of the championship game. Now, he leads the Lakers in scoring at 16.8 points per game. Kuzma has reached double figures in scoring in all 11 games this month with five double-doubles.
Last night was the final game of a home stand for the Lakers, and after making a statement against the Bulls, I expect to see Los Angeles dominate to start this road swing, by crushing Sacramento.
Kuzma leads the way, as the Lakers win again.
2* LAKERS
Jack Brayman
Let's keep this 19-7 win streak rolling tonight, after I delivered a huge NHL underdog for free last night, hitting Vancouver on the road in Philadelphia. Tonight I want you playing the home underdog Arizona Coyotes, over the San Jose Sharks.
After losing their first 11 games of the season, the Coyotes have suddenly caught fire, and look like a team to reckon with. They've got 12 goals in their last three games, after a five-game losing streak that saw them score a total of 7 goals during that skid.
The Yotes are back in Phoenix after a 3-1 road trip that saw them win in Ottawa, Montreal and Toronto - three places that are never easy to win. Now, with the crowd finally excited for a home game, I like Arizona to play some inspired hockey against one of the Western Conference's top contenders.
The Sharks are here after three straight losses - all at home. In that skid, San Jose was outscored 8-3, and now it's trying to regroup on the road against a team on a roll.
I'll take the home underdog with value tonight.
3* COYOTES
John Martin
Raptors vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks +4
The New York Knicks have been grossly underrated when playing at home this season. They are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in their 11 home games, scoring 109.5 points per game and only giving up 102.5 on the season. Two of their three home losses came by 4 points or less. Now they are catching 4 points here against the Toronto Raptors tonight. The Knicks are rested as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They will want to avenge their 84-107 loss in Toronto just five days ago on November 17th. I'll back the more hungry, underrated team here tonight in New York.
Jack Jones
Clippers vs. Hawks
Play: Clippers -2½
The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end their dreadful nine-game losing streak. They have their best chance to get it here in quite some time as they get to face one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks.
Injuries really derailed the Clippers and that is the biggest reason they have gone on this losing streak. But they just recently got back starting point guard Patrick Beverly, and he is the spark this team needs. He is arguably the best defensive point guard in the NBA, and he will make life miserable on Atlanta's Dennis Schroeder.
The Hawks are just 3-14 on the season and lacking talent outside of Schroeder. The Clippers won both meetings with the Hawks last season by double-digits. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games off a non-conference game. The Hawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.
Dave Price
Nuggets vs. Rockets
Play: Nuggets +10
The Houston Rockets are laying a hefty price here against the Denver Nuggets as 10-point home favorites. I think the value side is with the Nuggets, especially with how tough they have played the Rockets in recent meetings. Their final 3 meetings last season were all decided by 6 points or less. The Nuggets have only lost 1 of their last 8 meetings with the Rockets by more than 10 points. That trend continues here Wednesday. Houston is 2-13 ATS in home games versus good passing teams who average 23 or more assists per game over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games off a blowout win by 20 points or more.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -½ +105 over BUFFALO
Regulation only. Beat reporters travel, spend time with and get a real sense of what’s happening with the team they're covering and they can also get a feel for the opposition, as they usually attend the morning practice for both teams. We use social media as a way of gathering important information that may tip the scale in our favor. It is for that reason we follow every single beat reporter in the NHL and it comes in handy from time to time. This is a good example of that.
The Sabres and Wild are both struggling miserably. Minnesota has dropped two straight and are dead last in the Central. It’s a long swim back in this league when you fall behind and that’s the spot the Wild are in now. Buffalo, meanwhile, is in worse shape with six straight losses while scoring just one goal in four of those games. The best thing a team can do to break out of a slump is to work harder and if that doesn’t snap them out of it, work even harder. Well, one of the beat reporters on the scene tweeted this out this morning after the morning skate:
“Very odd day that I'll blame on Thanksgiving. Sabres had an optional skate, as did the Wild, but the Wild's optional was well attended. The Sabres was not”.
We’re not going to ignore that. Phil Housley is doing a horrible job in Buffalo. Housley put Jack Eichel down to the 3rd line last game although he’s likely to be back on the first line tonight. Oilers coach, Todd McLellan tried that with Connor McDavid. How’s that working out? Few Sabres attending the optional skate tells us that the players are not willing to go the extra mile for their coach. Furthermore, the Sabres goaltending is a mess while Minnesota’s goaltending is consistently very good.
Bruce Boudreau must have secretly been smiling when he saw how many of his players showed up today for his optional. That’s a sign that his players will go the extra mile to snap out of a slump. Aside from that, Minnesota is a determined team whose will has not been broken by a slow start. The Wild played their hearts out last game but two fluke goals by the Devils cost them a victory. The return of Charlie Coyle has virtually gone unnoticed but anytime you can get a quality center back playing 15 to 17 minutes a game, it makes a huge difference. The Wild are healthier right now than they’ve been all season. They are very likely going to go on a big time run too because that’s how committed Boudreau’s players have been to him forever. The Wild could not have handpicked a better opponent to start that run against. Invest.
Calgary +136 over COLUMBUS
OT included. Our ride on the Flames’ train continues tonight after Calgary rolled to a 4-1 win over the Capitals on Monday. The Flames out-chanced and outshot the Capitals for their second straight win and fourth victory in their last five games. The Flames have had no problem playing up to their competition this season with wins over Washington (x2), St. Louis, Nashville, Anaheim and Pittsburgh all of which finished ahead of them in the standings last season. Calgary is also 5-1 against teams with a winning record this season. The Flames are feeling it right now. They are playing with swag and coming to the rink knowing they have a great chance to win. Perhaps most importantly, the Flames have a goaltender that is holding his ground. That makes a massive difference in their mindset. This is a well-coached, very warm team that is loose and playing too well to overlook at prices like this.
The Blue Jackets, on the other hand, have not fared well when facing a squad with a record over .500, as they are just 2-5 in those games. Columbus has won four straight but it was outshot by the Sabres, Canadiens and the Red Wings, despite getting the W's. Before that stretch, the Jackets dropped four straight. The Blue Jackets have had trouble scoring lately as well, putting up two goals or less in five of their last six games. Columbus does not have any prolific scorers, as Artemi Panerin leads the way with 15 points in 21 games but is just a +2 this season. The Jackets are tied for first in the Metropolitan division after a hot start to the season but the entire picture is prettier on paper than it is on the ice. This is a team that has only drawn 10 penalties over its last 10 games, meaning they haven’t been sustaining enough pressure in the offensive end for the opposition to commit an infraction. While we take nothing away from the Jackets, the sum is better than the parts. Against this warm visitor, the Jackets are overpriced.
Vancouver +176 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. Situational betting has to be a part of any handicapper’s criteria, as it is one of the main reasons that upsets happen all the time. Before we get into the situation, it is worth noting that the Canucks come to play almost every night. It’s a rare day when they don’t bring high intensity. Vancouver’s win in Philadelphia last night is even more impressive when you consider that they had this game in Pittsburgh on deck, as every team in the NHL wants a crack at Pittsburgh and look forward to playing against them. The Canucks may not win but they almost always give us our money’s worth and they’re playing a flawed defensive team that may not care much about this one.
Pittsburgh has pulled more than a few no-shows this year already. We faded them when the Sabres were in town two games ago and Buffalo had them on the ropes before losing it in OT. Give the Canucks a two goal third period lead like the Sabres had and the Canucks will close the deal. Vancouver’s under the hood defensive numbers are outstanding. Now the back-to-back champs will play a team they rarely see and that is no threat to them whatsoever. You don’t ask the Golden State Warriors to worry about the Phoenix Suns. The Cavaliers don’t worry about the Brooklyn Nets and the Pittsburgh Penguins do not worry about the Buffalo Sabres. Well the Canucks are in that same boat. For the Penguins, this game has little meaning and we’ve seen them already treat games like this more like a glorified practice. The Penguins have their biggest threat in here next, as the Bolts come in for a Saturday night showdown after the Penguins play in Boston on Friday night. The Pens have been very vulnerable against weaker teams this year and this early in the season with the Bolts on the horizon, they’re likely going to be vulnerable again here. Did we mention that Evgeni Malkin is out?
Winnipeg +119 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. Through 20 games this season, the Jets have tied a modest franchise record with 12 wins, matching the total posted in 2007-08 by the club when it was still in Atlanta. You don’t have to look far to see why the Jets have turned things around this season, as young goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has finally made the leap to the “next” level, where he can now be relied upon to play well on a regular basis. Hellebuyck has been a model of consistency with his 11-2-2 record and .925 save % in 15 starts after beginning the season as the backup to overpriced free agent Steve Mason. The Jets finally seem to be filling their offensive potential as well, ranking seventh league wide with 3.3 goals per game. Great goaltending and goals by the bushel have led the Jets turnaround after a 0-2 start to the season. Winnipeg has not dropped two straight in regulation since stumbling out of the gate with Mason between the pipes. With all the attention paid to the top stars, secondary players like Mathieu Perrault, who is rock solid by the way, float under the radar. Perrault has four goals and five points in three games since returning from injury and is one of those players that make everyone else around him better. A healthy Adam Lowry and a bruising defenseman in Ben Chiarot back in the lineup doesn’t hurt either.
Perhaps years of asking goaltender Johnathan Quick to carry this team has finally reached its boiling point. After a hot start to the season, the Kings have been cold in November, scoring two goals or less in five of their last six games including last Sunday’s 4-2 setback in Vegas. Quick was pulled in that contest after allowing three goals on six shots, and while he’s still in the top-10 in both save % and goals against average, this is not the first time we’ve seen cracks in his game. Quick was out for much of last season after his heavy workload finally caught up with him. L.A.’s brass has not learned its lesson, as Quick has started all but four of the King’s 21 games this season. The tread is wearing thin on those tires. A big reason for the Kings’ early season success was their ability to kill penalties and they still lead the league at 90.1%, but shutting down opposing PP’s at that rate isn't sustainable. For comparison’s sake, the Bruins led the league last season at 85.7%. The Kings were red-hot to start the year and it was legit but it could also be a case of the opposition taking them lightly, as every publication called them a non-threat before the season began. Lately, however, the opposition is taking them seriously and they haven’t been nearly as good. Furthermore, the Kings have their biggest rival on deck in the Ducks. The Jets are still very warm while the Kings are creating very little these days. L.A.’s low goal totals over its last six games coincides with a low Corsi For and shots on net over that same span. Of course Winnipeg can win here.
COLORADO +102 over Dallas
OT included. The Stars are coming off a 3-1 home victory last night over the reeling Canadiens to run their home record to 8-2 on the year. Dallas indeed deserved to win, as they held a significant Corsi For edge while holding the Habs to just 21 shots on net. Dallas has now won two straight for the first time since the end of October but those two wins came against two reeling clubs in Montreal and Edmonton. Over its last four road games, Dallas is 0-4 while being outscored 20-7 over that span. Playing the 24th ranked schedule in the NHL this season, Dallas is 1-6 against top-10 teams and 3-7 against top-16 teams.
Most of the talk surrounding “surprise” teams has been centered around Vancouver, New Jersey, Los Angeles and Detroit but it is Colorado that is quietly playing some pretty good hockey. The Avs dominated the Red Wings in their last game and rallied from an unlucky 3-1 deficit to win it in OT. They’ve now won two of three after a recent stretch in which they won three in a row against Chicago, Carolina and Philadelphia and outscoring that trio 16-10. Playing the fifth toughest schedule in the league, Colorado is 3-3 against top-10 teams and 4-6 against top-16 teams. The Avs have drawn six, seven and six penalties respectively over its last three games, which reveals the havoc they’re creating in the offensive zone. However, the Avs have scored just one time over their past 13 PP opportunities but allowed three goals on seven short-handed opportunities in the same span. Those numbers are actually ridiculous and in line for a correction to the good. It’s a great sign when a team is drawing penalties while not taking many. Make no mistake that these Avs are coming on. They can skate with any team and better than most. Colorado’s metrics aren’t great but those numbers are negatively skewed because of the difficult schedule they’ve played. Their possession numbers are getting better and they also look better since the weight of the Matt Duchene situation has been lifted. Colorado is 6-1-1 at home and they catch the Stars playing the tail end of back-to-backs.
Gary Bart
Milwaukee at Phoenix
Play: Milwaukee -5½
The Bucks are 8-8 on the season after a home loss against then Wizards. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against the Suns. Phoenix are below 500. They have won two straight games against weak teams. Look for the Bucks to be ready for this game coming that home loss in their last game.
Buster Sports
Ottawa vs. Washington
Play: Washington -136
Washington Capitals and the Ottawa Senators have not been playing their best hockey this past 7 days with Washington losing three out of four games and the Senators losing their last three. The Senators have really struggled offensively scoring only three goals in their last three games. We like the Capitals to give the Senators their fourth straight loss tonight. The Capitals beat the Senators on opening-night 5-4 and they have had Ottawa’s number when playing in Washington. At the time of this writing the Capitals are laying only 136 at home and we believe that is a steal. Backing our selection is the fact that the Capitals are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the clubs and the fact that the Senators are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.
Rob Vinciletti
Milwaukee at Phoenix
Play: Milwaukee -5½
The Bucks have covered 11 of 15 off 3+ games that went under and they travel into Phoenix where they won by 20+ points last year. The Suns have failed to cover 6 of 7 at home with a 220+ total and 16 of 21 with 2 days rest. Non division home dogs with rest off a home favored win and cover scoring 110 or more are 1-11 ats vs a team off a -4 or less home favored loss and 0-9 if they ad 15 or less turnovers. Look for a big Bucks bounce back.
TJ Pemberton
Rangers vs. Hurricanes
Play: Rangers +125
The Rangers average 3.14 goals per game which ranks 11th in the NHL. New York have played well in Carolina and has won their last six games against a team from the East. Look for the Rangers to pick up a quality road win.
The New York Rangers hit the road after beating the Senators at home on Sunday. The Rangers are 10-9-2 on the season and will visit Carolina to take on the Hurricanes on Wednesday. New York is 7th in the Metro and are 7-3 over their last ten games. The Rangers are 2-5 on the road this season. Henrik Lundqvist will make his 19th start of the season for the Rangers. Lundqvist is 9-6-2 on the season with two shutouts. Lundqvist carries a 2.81 goals against average and .911 save percentage.
The Carolina Hurricanes have won two straight games heading into Wednesday. The Hurricanes are 9-6-4 on the season and 6th in the Metro. Carolina beat the Islanders on Sunday and are 5-2-3 over their last ten games. The Hurricanes are 4-2-3 on their home ice. Scott Darling will make his 15th start of the season for the Hurricanes. Darling is 6-4-4 on the season with 35 goals allowed. Darling carries a 2.46 goals against average and a .909 save percentage.
Vic Duke
Boston vs. Miami
Play:Boston -1½
Celtics/Heat 7:35: We'll look for the streak to stay alive for the Celtics are establishing a nice rhythm on both ends of the floor. Defensively, they're #1 in scoring defense and should clamp down on sputtering heat which is 1-9 ATS against the Eastern Conference and lost eight straight in this series. Kyrie Irving has caught fire and his supporting cast is blending in well. Jayson Tatum has been a fine addition along with California draft pick Jaylen Brown. And Marcus Smart is giving quality minutes off bench. Celtics are on a 20-5 ATS run, 5-0 ATS in Miami and we'll stay on Boston but light here. Miami has been strong off losses, especially double-digit ones.