Brandon Lee
East Carolina +6½
The Pirates are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Golden Hurricane. ECU defeated Tulsa 69-66 back on 1/25 as a 2-point home dog and wouldn't be shocked if they added another win over the Hurricane today. Either way, I see this one coming right down to the wire. The books have been slow to adjust to the Pirates, who are 8-2 ATS in their last 10. At the same time, they keep giving Tulsa too much respect, as they are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6. ECU also has a strong history of playing well against teams who like to shoot a lot of 3-pointers, as they are 12-4 ATS over the last 2 seasons against teams that take 21 or more 3-point shots/game.
Ray Monohan
Pelicans vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -6½
The Thunder battle the Pelicans on Sunday and it's taken a lot of time for this New Orleans team to clash.
They've dropped back to back games with Cousins now and it's just one of those cases where it will take time to get the chemistry up.
With this being the 2nd leg of a back to back, the Thunder should be able to pick apart this New Orleans team here, given they're still trying to figure things out.
Some trends to note. Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.
Expect Oklahoma City to control the tempo of this game, as they take should be able to handle business at home.
Matt Fargo
East Carolina vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -6½
Tulsa snapped a six-game losing streak with a win over South Florida on Thursday and remains here for its final home game of the season. The Golden Hurricane are 9-5 at home this season which includes a 5-3 record in the AAC. Going back, they are 20-6 at home in the conference and three of the home losses have come against nationally-ranked teams, #23 SMU in 2014-15, #18 SMU in 2015-16 and #14 Cincinnati this season. Tulsa has won 7 of its games against East Carolina in Tulsa at the Reynolds Center, and all of those wins have been by double-figures. The Pirates won at Tulane on Tuesday which was their first road win on the season after starting off with nine consecutive losses. Defeating a Tulane team that is 2-14 in the conference is not saying a lot especially when it came by just three points and on the season, East Carolina is getting outscored by 12.5 ppg on the road. Going back, the Golden Hurricane are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of fewer than seven points while going 7-1 ATS this season as single-digit favorites.
Matt Josephs
Illinois-Chicago vs. Wright St
Play: Illinois-Chicago +8
UIC and Wright State are wrapping up the regular season on Sunday. The Raiders won the road game in the series this year 88-86 although it was a struggle with both teams shooting really well from the field. The Flames have covered six of the last seven in this series and have been a bit of a surprise since they lost their leading scorer. They have covered six of their eight road games in conference because their offense has the capability to score. Wright State has lost two straight and has failed to cover in six of their last nine contests. Their seed is locked in for the conference tourney, but it is senior day so who knows how the emotions of the day will go. I think the road team can keep things interesting in this one.
Jack Jones
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -3½
I like the Nebraska Cornhuskers as short home favorites today against the Illinois Fighting Illini. These are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten, but the Huskers are clearly better than their record would indicate as they have taken some of the best teams in the conference down to the wire.
Indeed, they beat Purdue 83-80 at home and lost in overtime at home to Wisconsin, which are the two best teams in the conference. They also upset Maryland on the road earlier this season, which is the third-best team in the league. The Huskers can clearly play with anyone.
Now they take on an Illinois team that is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in true road games this season. The Fighting Illini are getting outscored by 9.4 pionts per game on the road this season. The home team has won five of the last six meetings between these teams.
The Fighting Illini are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. The Cornhuskers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.
Braxton Myles
Marist +12½
I love Marist for this 12 point spread today, they have been covering a lot of their last few games and with Siena being 2-7 ATS at home this season this one is a no brainier. Marist played Siena very close in their first meeting against each this season losing by only 7 points, the game was at Marist and for some reason in this conference the away team seems to always have the advantage and usually comes up with a win.
Jimmy Boyd
Pelicans vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -6½
It's been two games with Cousins paired alongside Davis in New Orleans and both have resulted in ugly losses. It's just not something that's going to click right away, as there's a lot of learning and adjusting to playing two big men together in today's small ball league. It also doesn't help that the Pelicans have very little talent surrounding these two and no bench. I just don't see it getting any better on the road against the Thunder, who I believe added in two great pieces in Gibson and McDermott from the Bulls.
Another big factor here is the huge homecourt edge the Thunder have. Oklahoma City is 21-8 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 7.0 ppg. New Orleans on the other hand is an awful road team with a 9-20 record. The books are simply inflating the line here on the Pelicans after the big trade. Thunder are 16-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs a team with a losing straight up record.
SPORTS WAGERS
LOUISVILLE -10 over Syracuse
The last time we saw the Orange, they made a statement with a home win over #11 Duke on Wednesday night. That win over the Dukies combined with the fact that the Orange took #7 Louisville to overtime two weeks ago has Syracuse's stock soaring at a season high. In that game with the Cardinals two weeks ago, the Orange were a 3-point pooch in Syracuse and came within a whisker of beating them. Now, Syracuse is coming off its biggest win of the season and the Orange are getting a whopping 10-points today. Those double-digits look mighty appealing but we’re suggesting they’re not. Syracuse is on the bubble. The Orange are a totally different team when they are away from the Carrier Dome with a horrible 2-9 record. On the boards is where the Orange really struggle, as they are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. Syracuse is just 66.6% on the defensive glass, which is good for 342nd in the nation. Their recent run may have stoked the embers of the Orange's at-large status but they could be in for a rude awakening today against a dangerous Louisville team that is at home licking its wounds. Second chance points for the Cardinals will come into play here.
The Cardinals have been on a rough road lately and the market has taken notice. Coach Rick Pitino and crew have failed to cover four of their last five games. The cherry on top of those recent struggles was a 74-63 loss at North Carolina on Wednesday. If you watched any of that game then you saw Pitino flip his lid early, where it remained for the rest of the game. It looked like Pitino was going to have a stroke. On most days we would wish salmonella poisoning on “Slick” Rick (because he’s so unlikeable) and the rest of the Cardinals but their poor recent form has Louisville getting shortchanged this afternoon. The Cardinals still have an outside shot at the Atlantic Coast Conference title but knowing Pitino, he's far more interested in embarrassing the Orange just for having the nerve to stick around in their last meeting. Pitino isn't like other coaches, he likes to run up the score and embarrass the opposition whenever the opportunity presents itself, especially in televised games where he can be his animated self and think he’s the reason they won. Frankly, it’s hard to stomach that SOB but that’s a story for another time. Louisville's spot in the NCAA Tournament is a lock, but Pitino treated that loss to North Carolina like it was the Final Four. He was fighting with fans in addition to his usual battles with his players and the officials. Pitino will be out for the blood of an orange today and now the oddsmakers have hung up a number that will entice a lot of people to bite on te wrong side. Don’t be one of them.
XAVIER +116 over Butler
A big part of our strategy is locating, isolating and fading public overreactions to astounding results. This is one of those times. The Bulldogs come in off one of the most impressive wins this season in all of college basketball when they handed the defending National Champion, the #2 team in all of America, the Villanova Wildcats their first loss at home this season. Butler didn’t just squeak by either, they won with authority, orchestrating a 74-66 victory despite entering the contest as a 10-point underdog. What is even more astounding is that Butler has had Villanova’s number as a whole recently. Two of Villanova’s three losses this season came at the hands of Butler and now you will pay to back the Bulldogs here. Again, Butler just pulled off a 10-point road upset over the defending national champion and now they are spotting just a bucket to a team they defeated by five points and covered earlier this season. When something appears too good to be true, it almost certainly is. Regardless of what Butler does here, they are at least a #2 seed in the Big East Tournament and they’re a virtual lock to be in the Main Event. They also figure to be the second most motivated squad here.
The Musketeers have been forecasted as a potential eight seed for the Main Event but they are in the zone where they can’t get too comfortable be that another loss or two and/or an early exit from the Big East Tournament could potentially capsize the Musketeers return hopes to March Madness. A win here punches their ticket to The Dance and leaves nothing to chance. Though Xavier only has DePaul and Marquette left on their docket before going to the Big East tourney, a win here against the Bulldogs bolsters their résumé, drives up their RPI and potentially enhances their seeding in the post-season tournament. All of this will only help the X-Men’s cause and position them for greener pastures come Selection Sunday.
More importantly, Xavier has been a beast on its own court this season. The Musketeers enter at 12-2 at home and have authored some rather impressive victories to bolster their reputation along the way. The trouble for Xavier has been its plights sustained on the road but that does not come into play here. When Xavier has hosted Butler, they have won the last four games in a row. In the previous three home contests, the Musketeers were favored and they covered successfully. Skipper Chris Mack has the blueprint to beat this invader and the Musketeers have a psychological edge because of it. Much of this could of course be chalked up to honing in on the animated environment that the Musketeers fanatics conjure when Xavier plays games of significance on its own court. Undoubtedly, this contest would have to be classed as that.
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary +119 over CAROLINA
OT included. Just before the start of last season, the Hurricanes signed Eddie Lack to a two-year, 5.5 million dollar contract (that’ll buy a lot of tacos). For their 5.5M, the Hurricanes have gotten 42 games out of Lack and a save % of .889. This season, the ‘Canes have gotten eight games out of Lack and frankly, they were afraid to use him because he’s been so bad. As it turns out, management figured that Cam Ward was overworked and very average anyway so why not put Lack back between the pipes against a team that is missing its three best forwards in Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan and Mark Stone since we’re paying him a fortune to do nothing. Good idea, right? It was a great idea, as Carolina and Lack shutout the Sens, 3-0. Now there’s fool’s gold dangling like the proverbial carrot.
Lack is pure garbage. He was never pestered by the Sens and Ottawa didn’t show up anyway. Things are going to be much different here against a hungry, talented and very confident Flames’ squad. Prior to defeating the Sens, Lack’s last victory was way back on October 20, in Calgary no less, when Carolina won 4-2. The very next game, two days later (just like here) on October 22, Lack allowed six goals on 27 shots and did not win again until Friday’s win over Ottawa. The Hurricanes and Lack have to deal with a red-hot team and some red-hot shooters too. Furthermore, Carolina is beatable on its best day because of a lack of scoring and a different Lack in goal.
Calgary is only six points ahead of Los Angeles for that coveted last playoff spot but it is theirs for the taking and they have responded big time. Not to be outdone by a near flawless performance against Tampa on Thursday, the Flames followed it up with another solid performance on Friday against Florida, thus completing the two-game sweep of two of the then hottest teams in the league. Calgary is now 8-2-1 in its last 11 games. It seems like everybody is contributing for the Flames during this current run including trade acquisition Michael Stone, who has two assists so far. Calgary’s defense may just be the league’s best and now this bunch is really starting to believe, and you can tell that by watching them. The Flames have a chance now to sweep their four-game road trip and when a team is playing as good as they are, they can’t wait to get back to the rink. Taking back a tag, Calgary is so undervalued here and must be played.
Edmonton +110 over NASHVILLE
OT included. 5:00 PM EST. What’s so interesting about this game is that both teams are coming off games against the Capitals. Edmonton lost 2-1 in Washington on Friday night and Nashville defeated Washington yesterday, 5-2. We’re not going to go into a lot of detail here because it’s not necessary. We’re going to point out the exact reason for this play only and it’s because the line says so.
Very simply, the Preds are a smaller price today over Edmonton then they were yesterday against Washington yesterday and if all things were equal, that could not be. Obviously Washington is more popular in the betting markets because outside of Canada, most of the rest of the world could not even tell you what province Edmonton was in. In any case, Nashville’s victory over Washington yesterday is very fresh in the minds of bettors. One could not help but be impressed with the Predators and now this appears to be a small price.
We’ll continue to insist that goaltending has the biggest impact on the outcome of games. Juuse Saros was in goal for the Preds yesterday and he’s likely going to be their goalie should the Preds make the playoffs because he’s so superior to Pekka Rinne. However, Rinne will be in goal today and the only thing he does is cost Nashville victories. Thus, this wager is twofold. We get the superior goaltending with Cam Talbot and we get a curious line that strongly suggests that the Oil are the right play.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Orleans +241 over OK CITY
The Pelicans have without question made the biggest splash during the All-Star break with the acquisition of All-Star Center DeMarcus Cousins, who came to The Big Easy along with Omri Casspi by virtue of a trade that sent Tyreke Evans, Buddy Hield and Langston Galloway to Sacramento. Cousins will join one of the game’s premiere big men in Anthony Davis to lead what has to be considered the best front court in the NBA. Cousins and Davis are essentially the second coming of David Robinson and Tim Duncan. From a betting perspective, Cousins and Davis could not have come together at a better time given the fact that New Orleans is sitting just 3½-games out of eighth place in the Western Conference playoff race. The ‘Cans have enough time to piece together a run and snag that final playoff seed from Denver. We would have to imagine that if such an event were to occur, New Orleans would be a very dangerous team for anyone to face in the NBA playoffs.
New Orleans, however, sits off the radar even with the trade that created waves across the league. You see, the Pelicans’ do not exactly own a captivating record at 23-36 while Oklahoma City is 33-25 (21-8 at home) and have been relevant for years. The Thunder are proven and true while there is speculation as to how Cousins will fit into the Pelicans’ scheme with Davis already anchoring the front court. We’re not going to worry about the speculation because when two greats come together, sky is the limit (see Kobe and Shaq, Duncan & Robinson, Durant & Westbrook and Jordan and Pippen to name a few).
New Orleans now has an opportunity to send the NBA a message right now in its first game with Cousins taking the court alongside Anthony Davis. The duo have been nicknamed “Fire and Ice” and to anyone that wonders how Cousins and Davis will gel together, we must remind you that Davis views Cousins as an older brother figure as both have ties with the University of Kentucky. Cousins’ played there in 2010 and was drafted as a freshman after a one and done season while Davis followed suit two years later. The two are enthused and excited to be playing together and given the fact that New Orleans has been carried by Davis on his back for a long time, AD is assuredly relieved to share that burden with his Wildcat brethren. There may not be a team in basketball that can challenge New Orleans in the paint and the only way to schematically defeat the Pelicans is through the perimeter game. This will likely fall on Russell Westbrook exclusively, but his running mate, shooter Victor Oladpio, remains questionable at this time with back spasms and did not play on Friday against the Lakers. Regardless, the market has not adjusted to the potential here and so we’re going to hope that we’re ahead of the curve before the ‘Cans reel off a bunch of victories in a row. The risk is worth the reward.
David Banks
Washington @ Washington St
Pick: Washington St. Pk
It’s a battle for state supremacy as Washington heads to Pullman to face Washington State on Sunday night. For Huskies head coach Lorenzo Romar, the 2016-17 season has not gone as planned. Washington has lost nine straight and has not won since Jan. 19 when the Huskies squeaked by Colorado, 85-83. Romar’s team is just 9-18 overall and has but two wins in the Pac-12. Still, Washington is fun to watch because of guard Markelle Fultz, who many believe will be the No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA draft.
Fultz is a 6-4 freshman who can do it all. He is a point guard, a shooter, a defender…you name it and he can do it. Fultz averages 23.2 points per game, tops in the conference. He also pulls down 5.7 rebounds, dishes out 5.9 assists, and averages 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. He is as complete a player as there is in the country. David Crisp adds 14.3 points per game and 6-8 Noah Dickerson (11.3 ppg) is the team’s leading rebounder (7.9 rpg). Malik Dime, a 6-9 senior, has been suspended but should be available.
The Cougars have suffered like Washington though not quite as badly. Washington State defeated Arizona State, 86-71, to end a five-game losing streak and pick up its fifth conference win. The Cougars are 12-15 overall and 5-10 in the Pac-12. Josh Hawkinson leads the Cougars with 15.3 points a game. Washington State does not play a very big lineup and has suffered on the glass. The Cougars are 328th in the nation in rebounding. The Cougars beat the Huskies, 79-74, earlier in the season.
Bruce Marshall
Wizards -2.5
Solid technical case easy to make for Washington in this matchup. The Wizards are 16-7 vs. the points at home this season, while Utah is just 1-10 as a road dog. Washington has been playing well for 2 1/2 months, recording 27-8 SU and 25-10 spread marks since Dec. 8 (prior to visiting Philly on Friday). Utah has struggled to cover numbers since the third week in December, logging a 9-20 record vs. the points prior to visiting Milwaukee. Wizards have won and covered last three hosting the Jazz, holding them to just 88 ppg in those meetings.
John Fisher
Hornets at Clippers
Play: Clippers -9.5
Clippers will look to get back in rhythm now that PG Paul is back. Hornets playing back to back here and will not be able to keep this game under DDs after the 8 minute mark second half. Clippers 23-12 ATS as favorites and Hornets 9-14 ATS as dogs. Clippers will look to,avoid three straight losses all be it other two losses against perennial Warriors and Spurs.
Wunderdog
Memphis @ Denver
Pick: Memphis +2
Memphis has a winning record, both home and away because of strong defense. Memphis is third in the NBA in points given up and second in field goal shooting allowed. Memphis is sixth in the Western Conference standings, one of only three NBA teams to allow less than 100 points per game. The Grizzlies are 21-10 ATS against the Western Conference and 11-5 ATS playing on one day of rest. Denver has lost seven of 12 playing no defense, #28 in points allowed and last in the NBA allowing 48.1 percent shooting by opponents. Memphis has won seven of the last eight meetings, including three straight in the Mile High City. They've taken the first two this season, 108-107 at home and 119-99 at Denver four weeks ago.
Brad Powers
Memphis +2
We're catching value because Memphis is off 3 straight losses and Houston is being overpriced because they're on the NCAA Tourney Bubble. Still Memphis has the better defense (No. 74 vs No. 82), are at home and beat Houston 70-67 (+6) in the first meeting.