DAVE PRICE
Mavs +1½
The Key: All value on the Miami Heat is now gone after they have gone 16-2 in their last 18 games overall. Now they find themselves in the role of road favorite here against a hungry Dallas Mavericks team that is trying to get back into the playoff race. The Mavericks beat the Pelicans by 13 in their last game and will be ready to stop the Heat tonight at home. Dallas will be looking to avenge a 95-99 loss at Miami on January 19th as well. The Mavs are 17-7 ATS when revenging a same season loss this season. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.
JIMMY BOYD
Miami Fla vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech +1½
The Hokies are showing some good value here catching points at home against the Hurricanes. Miami comes in off a huge 55-50 upset win at home over Duke, which came just a few days after they pulled off an upset at Virginia. The Hurricanes have won 4 straight and are simply overvalued in this spot, as I believe they are primed for a letdown playing on just 1-day of rest after that big win over the Blue Devils. Keep in mind they followed up a 77-62 home win over UNC back in late January with a 57-75 loss at home to FSU. Speaking of the Seminoles, the Hurricanes have them on deck and I think they have a tough time not looking ahead to that contest, especially given they have already beat the Hokies.
Virginia Tech has been consistently undervalued by the books of late, which is evident by the fact that they have covered 6 straight games. Miami's defense has been great of late, but it has them in a profitable fade situation. The Hurricanes are 3-11 ATS in their lat 14 road games after 2 straight games that go UNDER the total and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games games after a combined score of 125 or less. Hokies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 revenging a road loss, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when playing their 2nd game in 3 days and 6-0 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3 pointers.
JACK JONES
Wolves vs. Kings
Play: Kings +5
The Sacramento Kings are going to be getting no respect from oddsmakers after the All-Star Break due to trading away DeMarcus Cousins. I think there could be some nice value on this team in their first several games back from the break, and I believe that to be the case tonight.
The Kings showed what they were capable of in their first game back from the break, beating Denver 116-100 as 6.5-point home dogs. Then they faced a hungry Charlotte team looking to end a losing streak and fell 85-99 as 4-point dogs.
Minnesota has no business being a road favorite of 5 points here. The Timberwolves are just 8-18 SU & 10-16 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 5.1 points per game on average. The Kings have won both meetings this season with a 106-103 home victory and a 109-105 road win.
Minnesota is 14-40 ATS in its last 54 games after scoring 120 or more points in its previous game. Sacramento is 48-27 ATS in its last 75 home games after scoring 85 points or less in its previous game. The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
TEDDY DAVIS
Mavs +1½
Sure the Miami Heat have been a good story with their run here as of late, but I don't feel they deserve to be favored on the road. The Mavs clearly believe that they can make a run at the 8th spot with their recent trade of Noel. That trade will actually help them match up well with Whiteside down low. The last time Miami was laying points on the road, they lost to the Sixers out right. I see the same thing happening here tonight.
MATT JOSEPHS
Samford vs. Mercer
Play: Samford +5
This is an interesting game in the SoCon as the winner gets to not play in the first round. Mercer has lost four of their last seven with three of those coming at home. Their victory at Samford came because they were extremely hot from long range which is not usual for them. Samford has won two of their last three games and have proven that they are not an easy out on the road. The Bulldogs have covered in four of six and five of their last eight road games. They have balanced scoring with five guys who score nine points or more per game. Mercer is a little more inconsistent. I think the road team presents some value.
ART ARONSON
Senators vs. Lightning
Play: Lightning -155
Looks like a good spot to lay the chalk on the home side, as Ottawa comes to town off a highly satisfying and extremely hard-fought 2-1 win in Florida just last night. The Lightning on the other hand come in rested, having had three entire nights off after dropping a 3-2 contest to Calgary last week. Note that Ottawa is just 3-7 in its last ten in Tampa Bay overall, while the Lightning are 35-16 in their last 51 when playing on three or more days of rest. From a situational stand point, this one does indeed set up well for TAMPA BAY.
BEN BURNS
Samford vs. Mercer
Play: Samford +5
These teams already played a close one, at Samford. Mercer won that one by three points. That result notwithstanding, Samford has the superior overall record and this one could also prove close. Since late January, Samford is only 4-5. However, a closer look shows that only one of those losses came by more than six points. In fact, if we go back to late November, we find that only one of the Bulldogs' last 11 losses came by more than 10 points. The winner of this game earns the #6 seed which comes with a first round bye. Look for both teams to fight hard and don't be surprised if its close the entire way.
MIKE ANTHONY
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -4.5
The Celtics get to the FT line and play great team defense. Boston gutted out a tough win at Detroit on Sunday night and now travel home to host the Hawks. Atlanta has lost three straight, all by 15 or more points. I like the balanced attack of the Celtics to get the edge here on Monday night behind Brad Stevens and his team play on another level at home.
TJ MASTERLINE
Senators vs. Lightning
Play: Over 5
We had 3-0 Sweep yesterday, including 2 premium and one free play. Let's do that again today. We love this game to go over the Total of 5 tonight. I even expect the line to move to 5.5. Jump on it now. Here are some of the statistics that I like, as well as goaltender struggles. Over is 4-0 in Senators last 4 Monday games. Over is 4-1 in Senators last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Over is 7-0 in Lightning last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 5-2-3 in Lightning last 10 vs. Atlantic. Over is 5-2 in Lightning last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
SPORTS WAGERS
VIRGINIA +155 over North Carolina
Virginia is ranked #19 in the nation. The Cavaliers began conference play with some quality wins over ranked Louisville (twice), Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. After their second victory over the Cardinals, the Cavs lost four straight games. It sounds bad, but the Athletic Coast Conference is as tough as they come. Two of those four games went into overtime, including at ranked Va Tech. Two of the other losses were against Duke and North Carolina with the latter being a 20-plus point beat down, 65-41, just over a week ago. Those two programs from Tobacco Road are a pair of the most covered, televised and overvalued teams in the country, not just the ACC. The terms overvalued and overrated are two completely different things so when we discuss overvalued teams, we’re suggesting that the market will back them no matter what the price is. Duke and North Carolina cast a large shadow on the rest of the conference. It’s not unusual for one ACC team to lose to another by 20+ points and beat them in the return meeting. It happens all the time because said winner comes in feeling very complacent while said losing team is not interested in getting whacked again. Virginia can play with the Tar Heels and there is no question that they’ll be ready here.
The Tar Heels secured the top seed in the ACC tournament after an 85-67 win at Pittsburgh on Saturday night. North Carolina's stock is soaring after four straight wins, two of which came against ranked ACC opponents in Louisville and these Cavaliers. Since that aforementioned beat down over Virginia, all UNC has done is win and cover. The Tar Heels are arguably the hottest offensive team in the country. After a disappointing loss to Duke in Cameron on February 15th, UNC has been unstoppable. UNC had no problem running Virginia through the buzz saw in Chapel Hill two Saturday's ago and now they are being asked to cover just two baskets. That math just doesn't add up. It's not like North Carolina doesn't have something to play for because they do. If the Tar Heels win one of their two remaining games they'll clinch the ACC regular season title too. A closer look at their schedule shows the Tar Heels might be far more interested to seal the deal in their regular season finale, at home, against Duke. That’s would be the proverbial cherry on top to cap off the regular season. With Duke on deck, the Tar Heels might get caught overlooking a dangerous conference foe that they just ran over. Make no mistake this is a very tough road game. John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville seats almost 15,000 and it’ll be the loudest arena in the country tonight. Cavaliers outright.
NJIT +10½ -103 over LIPSCOMB
The Lipscomb Bisons are the #2 seed, and a “sexy” pick to win the Atlantic Sun Conference. The Atlantic Sun is one of just a few conferences where the teams travel throughout the tournament with the higher seed gaining home court advantage. That could work in our favor, as these top-seeded teams are priced higher than they should be. The Bisons won eight of their last nine games but they finished the season 19-12 in a conference where they were just one of two teams with a winning record. That's not very impressive. One of their victories down the stretch did come over top seed, and regular season winner Florida Gulf Coast, but that win only further inflates Lipscomb's value here. First up for the Bisons in the ASUN Tournament is #7 seed New Jersey Tech, a team Lipscomb crushed 87-63 at home in Nashville less than a month ago but it’s worth noting that there was NO LINE in that game because there rarely are lines involving teams from the ASUN. In fact, these two teams have played one another four times since the start of last year and there has not been a line in any of those four games. The oddsmakers are not comfortable posting lines in this conference, thus we can almost assure you that the chalk is overavalued.
The NJIT Highlanders are one of six other teams in the ASUN to finish the season with a sub .500 record, but none of that matters now with all slates wiped clean and the conference tournament upon them. The Highlanders finished the season on a positive note with a 88-87 win over USC Upstate on Thursday night. Five players finished in double digits for NJIT, and they were led by freshman forward Anthony Tarke. Today, Tarke was named ASUN Newcomer of the Week for the second time this season. It was the Highlanders second win in a row and a big reason for their recent success has been their +29 rebounding margin, including 30 on the offensive glass. Those second chance opportunities are huge when taking back lumber like this. The Crusaders did not fair very well in their last trip to Allen Arena. That 24-point loss makes them rather unappealing here but we stress to never put a lot of emphasis on one result. In the first meeting between these two this season in January, Lipscomb won by just four. These favorites in weak conferences bring a ton of risk with them to win outright, let alone cover a number like this while the underdog is playing with house money.
Let us also point out that NJIT has a penchant for the post-season overall, as they have gone to two consecutive CIT semifinals in 2015 and 2016. Lipscomb has not qualified for a post-season tourney in over a decade and when they did in 2006, they made an abrupt exit. While the Highlanders may have undergone coaching changes this year, the upper classmen on this team have savored the flavor of previous post-season successes and you have to imagine they are hankering for one more run before they hang it up. Don’t be fooled by the respective records of these two, as NJIT have won their last two contests and can cultivate those wins to spawn some momentum. Overall, the Highlanders offer tremendous upside here when you consider they have nothing to lose and that Lipscomb has much less experience in higher-stake games. Upset possibility.
Jim Feist
Miami Florida at Virginia Tech
Pick: Under
A pair of defensive teams clash as Miami is #13 in the AAC in scoring, but second in points allowed. Miami-Florida is 9-2 under the total against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Virginia Tech plays its best defense at home and is 4-1 under against a team with a winning straight up record. And when these rivals clash the Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Will Rogers
Los Angeles vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The set-up: The 30-27-4 LA Kings are in Minnesota Monday night to take on the 39-14-6 Wild, who lead not only the Central Division with 84 points but also the entire Western Conference.
LA Kings: Los Angeles is battling for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference and climbed within three points of St. Louis with Saturday's 4-1 triumph over Anaheim. The win was extra-sweet due to the fact that the Kings welcomed back Jonathan Quick to the lineup from a groin injury the goaltender suffered in the season opener (Quick made 32 saves). Speaking of the position of goaltender, the Kings have sent goalie Peter Budaj, who started 51 games for Los Angeles this season, to Tampa Bay for Ben Bishop. Bishop
is less than two seasons removed from a starring role in leading the Lightning to the Stanley Cup Final.
Minnesota: The Wild are returning from their bye week and and will conclude an eight-game homestand in which they've gone 4-2-1 through seven games. Once again speaking of goaltenders, the Wild's Devan Dubnyk is 32-11-3 on the season, posting a 2.01 GAA and .933 save percentage. The Wild are an impressive 21-8-1 on home ice, outscoring opponents 3.37-to-2.10 GPG.
Power Sports
Georgia St vs. Arkansas St.
Pick: Arkansas St.
Not sure why Arkansas State isn't being asked to lay at least a few points in their home finale. Perhaps it's because they are off a very disappointing result Saturday when they lost here in Jonesboro, 72-60, to Georgia Southern as seven-point chalk. I can't see the Red Wolves dropping B2B games at home. Because this is the Sun Belt and it's Monday, all the visiting teams are playing on the road for the second time in three days. Georgia State won Saturday (at Ark-Little Rock), but I feel they're being overvalued as a result.
Saturday's loss was also Arkansas State's first of the season here at home. They'd previously been 11-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. They shot just 32.8% from the floor in the 72-60 loss to Ga Southern. I would expect significant improvement on the offensive end tonight. For the season, the Red Wolves average 77.3 points per game at home on 49.3% shooting. It also didn't help that they were just 16 of 28 from the FT line against Ga Southern.
These two are tied in the loss column w/ only five Sun Belt setbacks each. Georgia State has a half game lead over ASU due to playing one more game. So tonight's contest has a grave importance as both teams (along w/ Ga Southern) are all chasing conference leader UT Arlington. Still finishing second would be big for the upcoming Conference Tournament though. Prior to winning B2B games, Georgia State had lost three in a row. I like the home team in this one.
Larry Ness
Minnesota vs. Sacramento
Pick: Minnesota
The Minnesota T-wolves were a 'sexy' pick to make the playoffs this season while no one expected much from the Sacramento Kings. The teams enter this contest with similar records (T-wolves are 23-36 and the Kings are 25-34) but only the T-wolves seem capable of climbing into the playoff picture, after Sacramento's trade of DeMarcus Cousins during the All Star break.
The Kings are just one game back of the Nuggets, who currently hold down the No. 8 spot, but there is no way that they can replace Cousins' production (27.8 & 10.6) with Gay (18.7) having already been lost for the season. Collison (13.6) is the team's leading scorer now, although Hield has averaged 15.5 in his two games since the trade and former King Tyreke Evans has added 13.0-4.5-4.0 in his two games back on the West Coast. PF Skal Labissiere had a career-high 12 points in the win over Denver and a career-high 13 rebounds in the loss to Charlotte but he's far from being ready for prime time!
Minnesota: Anthony-Towns (24.0 & 12.1) and Wiggins (23.4 & 4.2) have not yet lifted the T-wolves into the West's top-eight (Minny sits three games back) but this is one talented dynamic duo. Wiggins scored in Saturday's 142-130 loss in Houston and now has scored at least 20 points for the 17th consecutive game. Towns scored a career-high 37 against the Rockets and added 22 rebounds (he has 59 rebounds in his past three games). Joining that duo are guard LaVine, the 6-11 Dieng (10.2 & 7.9) and PG Rubio (9.1 & 8.6 APG), who was not dealt at the trade deadline despite consistent rumors he would be.
Like many, I'm perplexed as to why Minnesota doesn't have a better record with its talent. Monday's game is the second of 16 road games Minnesota will play over its final 24 contests and if the Timberwolves can't win games like this, there will be no postseason for this team. I'll take a shot with the underachieving road team.
Scott Rickenbach
North Carolina at Virginia
Play: Virginia +4
The Cavaliers have been knocked out of the ACC Tourney by the Tar Heels each of the past two seasons and there was more fuel added to the fire when UNC destroyed the Cavs at North Carolina a little over a week ago by a 65-41 final. Virginia did defeat the Heels the last time they hosted them (exactly a year ago to the day) and I expect them to get another home win here. The fact the line has moved strongly toward the Tar Heels adds to the line value available here as of early Monday morning. Note that Virginia finally got their offense back on track with knocking down 69% of their threes at NC State Saturday! However, what was arguably most impressive about that game for the Cavs was the fact that they held down a quality Wolfpack offense (averaging nearly 80 points per game this season) to just 55 points and the game was at NC State. Look for the Cavs D to be the difference maker here today as well as I know that UNC has been playing better on defense but the revenge-minded Cavaliers still have the top defense. The Cavaliers are an incredible 17-6 (SU and ATS!) in home games with a posted total in the 130 to 134.5 range. Also, the Cavs are 40-5 SU in home games the past 3 seasons combined. The Tar Heels have won and covered their past two road games but, prior to that, North Carolina was 2-7 ATS in road games on the season. That said, I'll gladly grab the big value being offered here with the hungry home dog Cavs in this one.