Black Widow
Boston College vs. Florida St
Play: Boston College +18½
Bets against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points in their last three games are 29-7 ATS since 1997. The Seminoles have lost two straight by double-digits. They played on Saturday, while Boston College hasn't played since Tuesday. I like the spot here for the Eagles to stay within 18.5 points.
Jack Jones
Miami vs. Virginia
Play: Miami +9½
The Miami Hurricanes are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They could use a signature win here at Virginia, and it's clear that the Cavaliers are ripe for the picking right now with the way they are playing coming in.
Indeed, Virginia is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. It lost in overtime at Virginia Tech as favorites, lost by 10 at home to Duke as favorites, and was pummeled 41-65 at North Carolina over the weekend. The Cavaliers have been terrible offensively, shooting 42.4% against VA Tech, 36.8% against Duke and 27.8% against UNC.
The Hurricanes have put themselves on the good side of the bubble thanks to going 6-2 in their last eight games overall. One of the losses was a 5-point loss at Louisville as 8.5-point dogs. The Hurricanes have shot 44.2% or better from the field in each of their last six games, topping 50% three times.
Virginia is only 6-19 ATS in its last 25 off a road loss by 20 points or more. Miami is 11-3 ATS as a road underdog or PK over the last three seasons. The Hurricanes are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.
Jimmy Boyd
Texas vs. West Virginia
Play: Texas +15½
I really like the value here with the Longhorns as a massive road dog against the Mountaineers. Texas comes in with a 10-17 overall record, but this team has been a lot more competitive than that record would suggest. While they are just 4-10 in Big 12 play, their largest loss in conference play is 15 points and 4 of those losses have come by 4-points or less. That includes a 72-74 loss at home to this same West Virginia team back on 1/14.
I just feel the books have really over-adjusted this line given the situation. While both teams are playing on just 1-day rest, West Virginia comes in off a double-overtime win at home against Texas Tech. The Mountaineers basically used a 6-man rotation for that game. They had 5 players play 33 or more points with 3 eclipsing 40 minutes. Only two other players reached double-digits in minutes played and one of those was Watkins with just 13 minutes off the bench. For a team that loves to put pressure on their opponents, I just don't see the Mountaineers having the energy here to turn this into a blowout.
Power Sports
Appalachian St. vs. Troy
Pick: Troy -7
Troy took care of business on Saturday, outlasting Coastal Carolina 87-78 as six-point chalk. It was the Trojans' third consecutive victory as they continue to fight for position in the upcoming Sun Belt Tournament. Tonight, they have a chance at avenging last year's season sweep by Appalachian State. They are actually 0-4 SU all-time vs. the Mountaineers as conference rivals, but the last three meetings have all been decided by four points or less. Revenge should be theirs Monday night.
To say Appalachian State is not a good road team would be putting it mildly. They are 1-13 SU away from home w/ that one win coming in a non-lined game at Hartford back in November. Because this is the Sun Belt and it's Monday, the Mountaineers find themselves on the road for the second time in three days. They lost by 13 at South Alabama on Saturday. The 87-74 loss is pretty indicative of how the team typically performs on the road. They are being outscored by 11.4 PPG on the road this year, giving up 83.3 PPG.
Troy averages a whopping 86.6 PPG at home. Thus, I can't really believe they are only 8-4 SU here at Trojan Arena. They were at that scoring average Saturday vs. Coastal Carolina though and that came after a pair of road wins. While this team's record as a favorite is certainly "iffy," they've been a lot better of late and the situation simply is not good for ASU.
ASA
Texas vs. West Virginia
Play: Texas +15½
West Virginia is off a pair of OT games in Lawrence Kansas and the home against Texas Tech and could have a hard time finding that extra gear for a blowout win. Texas is coming off 3 straight losses but this team has been competitive all season long in conference play. The Longhorns largest conference loss this season is 15 points and despite an 0-9 SU road record they have an average loss margin of just 8PPG, nearly half as much as tonight’s spread. The Neers have a 14-2 SU home record and their average margin of victory is 14PPG which again is less than tonight’s point spread. Earlier this year when these same two teams squared off it was a 2-point game, and while we don’t think it will be that close this time around, we do feel it will be right around a 9 or 10-point home with for WVU.
Bruce Marshall
Ducks / Coyotes Under 5
Arizona's games rarely seem to go "under" five goals but note that only 5 times in the last 26 games has an Anaheim game exceeded five goals. on the "totals" side. That would include the Ducks' last visit to Glendale and a 3-0 win on Jan. 14. The Coyotes have gotten some decent work in goal from Mike Smith over the past few weeks and Anaheim has been held to exactly one goal in each of its last three games.
Port Port Sports
Texas St +7.5
Okay so we don't venture into these parts very often, but this one seems like a good opportunity for a close game and another underdog casher here tonight. Georgia State comes into tonight having lost 3 straight games, with their L2 coming by an even 1 point each. They are 2-4 ATS over their L6 overall and they are no stranger to close battles when playing on their home turf this season. Four of the L8 games played on the Georgia State campus have been decided by 3 points or less and Georgia State holds a 2-3 ATS mark in their L5 as the favorite on their home court. Texas State comes in off of a 3-point loss at Georgia Southern last time out, but they have now won and covered in 2-of-their-L3 overall and hold a 4-2 ATS record through their L6 games. They are now 3-2 ML and ATS in their L5 on the road with each of those games coming with them as the underdog. Texas State has also been playing everyone tough on the road lately, with 5-of-their-L7 away from home being decided by 5 points or less. Texas State won the last meeting between these two schools last season, 63-61 at Georgia State, and the Bobcats have covered 2 straight meetings and are 3-2 ATS in the L5 between the two schools. The last 3 meetings played at Georgia State have been decided by 3 points or less and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings.
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play is the Under in Miami-Florida at Virginia.
Forget the Hurricanes 3 straight Overs played, as Jim Larranaga's team is 14-9-1 for the season Under the total.
Virginia comes into this home game with Unders played in their last pair of games, and the Cavs are 15-8-1 Under the total for the season.
In ACC action, the Under is 6-2-1 for the Wahoos over their last 9 contested, so no reason to think we shall see an offensive explosion between the teams tonight in Charlottesville.
Series numbers show 5 of the last 7 played between the schools having held Under the posted price, and this one does as well.
'Canes-Cavs Under on Monday night.
3* MIAMI-FLORIDA-VIRGINIA UNDER
Jack Brayman
My free play is on the Under in the ACC clash between the Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Cavaliers. Both have shown signs of defensive life all season, with Miami staying under in 15 of 24 games, and the Cavs staying low in 16 of 24.
Miami is going to have to adapt to a slower pace, as Virginia is likely to control this tempo. The Cavaliers rarely get past 71 points, as nine of their last 10 games have seen them score 71 or loss. The 10th was an 80-78 overtime loss at Virginia Tech.
Virginia is in after back-to-back losses to Duke and at North Carolina, so the Cavs will be stingy tonight. Miami is going to have to respond defensively if it wants to win.
Finally, the under is on an 8-2 run with Virginia, which is also on a 7-2 under run in ACC games.
Play this one low.
2* UNDER Miami-Virginia
Frank Sawyer
West Virginia -15
Lay the points with the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns. At first glance, it might look easy to take Texas (10-17) as big double-digit dog on the road when considering that they narrowly losses to the Mountaineers in their first encounter this season by a 74-72 score. But the Longhorns stayed competitive in that game by shooting 47.9% from the field. Don’t expect a similar performance tonight considering that Shaka Smart’s team shoots only 43.4% when on the road. And this Texas team wilted against “Press” Virginia by turning the ball over 19 times in 26.4% of their possessions in that contest. That is something that could very well repeat itself with the Longhorns playing in the hostile Morgantown environment tonight. Texas is 8th in the Big 12 by turning the ball over in 21.8% of their possessions. West Virginia leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 29.4% of their opponent’s possessions. The Longhorns have not played the underdog role well either having failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting the points. West Virginia (21-6) has covered the point spread in three of their last four games with their 83-74 win over Texas Tech on Saturday as a 10-point favorite. The Mountaineers have covered point spread expectations after failing to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss.
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA +122 over Anaheim
OT included. The Ducks are in a difficult spot here. First, Anaheim is coming off a physically tough, 1-0 victory over its most hated rival last night, the Los Angeles Kings. Anaheim will now play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. In the second game of back-to-backs this season after a victory on the front end, the Ducks are 0-4. Aside from that, Anaheim just returned home from a grueling 14-day trip and now they're heading back out almost immediately. The NHL schedule is taking no prisoners this season but it is taking a toll on some teams’ from the West Coast, which includes the Ducks. We have seen Anaheim flat on many occasions this year and after defeating the Coyotes twice in two tries already this season, the Ducks are in great danger of showing up in body only.
The Coyotes are playing out the string only but winning makes coming to the rink a lot more enjoyable and right now, Arizona is enjoying playing again after a frustrating four months of struggles. The Coyotes have won seven of their past 12 games. They scored three goals or more in nine of those 12 games and they’re also getting outstanding goaltending from Mike Smith on most nights. Upsets happen all the time in sports and it’s because of a combination of things that make the superior team vulnerable. So, not only are the Coyotes playing their best hockey of the season but they catch the Ducks in a hugely flat-footed spot. Lastly, Arizona has dropped five straight in this series, which will only motivate them more and we absolutely trust therm to respond.
SPORTS WAGERS
Iowa State +3½ over TEXAS TECH
We’re going to split this up and play a unit on the Cyclones on the money line and we’ll risk 1.1 units on the point spread taking back 3½ points. Therefore the bets are as follows:
Iowa State +148 for 1 unit
Iowa State +3½ -110 for 1.1 units to win 1
Iowa State is battling hard for a high seed in the upcoming conference tournament and there is a great chance they’ll get it. Loaded with quality players, the Cyclones are peaking at the right time, they’re still building their tournament (main event) résumé and they figure to be focused and jacked up here.
This is the time of year where you can throw many things out the window, especially X’s and O’s because motivation or lack thereof becomes a much bigger issue. When one is betting on sports, if you wager on an unmotivated team with a lack of focus, no matter how good said team is, chances are you are going to rip up your ticket long before the final buzzer sounds. Enter Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were a bubble team two weeks ago with games against #3 Kansas, #4 Baylor and #9 West Virginia on deck. A three-game sweep there and the Committee would have no choice but to include Texas Tech among the field of 68. However, Tech would leave the Committee with no such dilemma, as the Red Raiders dropped two of three but man, were they ever close. Tech lost to Kansas by a single point to open that trio of games before they took care of Baylor. Now 1-1 with WVU up, Tech lost in double OT on Saturday to the Mountaineers to ruin their dreams of an at-large bid. Imagine losing by one point, beating Baylor and then losing in double OT to three ranked teams in succession. So close but yet so far and now the Red Raiders will be asked to play a game that cannot help them out. Texas Tech figures to be on a serious letdown here. Mentally, the Red Raiders have to be spent. Mentally, the Red Raiders are very likely preparing for the upcoming conference tournament instead of this meaningless game that will do nothing to boost up their portfolio and that’s what this wager is based upon. Texas Tech has very likely checked out until the conference tourney begins while the Cyclones are just checking in.
Harry Bondi
TEXAS TECH -3 over Iowa State
Tough scheduling spot here for the Cyclones, who come in off a big win over TCU and have Baylor on deck. We expect the Red Raiders to take advantage as they are playing with same-season revenge and have been at their best on their home court, where they have covered three in a row, including a win over Baylor and a one-point loss to Kansas. Tech is also 10-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record and they have covered six of their last eight games when coming off a loss. Red Raiders bounce back big in front of home crowd.
Tony Finn
Texas at West Virginia
Play: Texas +15.5
The Big 12 has two games on the schedule this Monday night with a late start on the eastern seaboard with a tilt between West Virginia and Texas. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET on WVU Coliseum court in Morgantown, West Virginia.
West Virginia has shown some signs of wearing down physically despite their deep roster to execute their "Press Virginia" scheme. Part of their conference fade comes via mentally as well. Not only did the meltdown in Allen Fieldhouse last Monday night offer evidence of such the travel that the Mountaineers undergo being an east coast team playing in a Midwestern conference has taken a toll.
After failing to hold off the Jayhawks in last week's ESPN Big Monday event West Virginia needed a rally of their own to overcome a six-point deficit in the final 10 minutes of their first meeting against the Texas Longhorns earning a 74-72 in Austin. They have played a large number of overtime, even double overtime contests this season, and the energy it takes to perform their 40-minutes of Hell defensive scheme is exhausting, especially in late February.
Head coach Bob Huggins told the media that his team is still suffering a hangover from that Monday meltdown at the Phog. It doesn't get any easier tonight for the 'Neers as they face a young, but improving, Shaka Smart Texas squad desperate to get their first league win in 10 road games this season.
The Longhorns have scuffled to earn wins this season but have been competitive in most events this year. Texas is a porous 5-9 this season in games decided by five points or less, their latest against a quality Kansas State Wildcats squad that ended in a 64-61 loss in Austin on Saturday.
The Mountaineers are in a position tonight to force the young Texas backcourt to double their season average of turnovers per game (13.5) to cover the big handicap the oddsmakers have placed on this game. While WVU leads the nation in turnovers forced per game (21.81) this McDonalds All American backcourt of coach Smart's is playing smarter and more efficiently as the season progresses.
Stephen Nover
Miami / Virginia Over 118.5
Yes, these are two very strong defenses. But this total is just too low, an overcompensation for that.
Miami has scored at least 70 points in six of its last eight games. Virginia's defense has slipped recently surrendering an average of 66.2 points during its last five games.
There were 141 points scored when these two teams last met 11 months ago.