Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 7/30/20
951CHICAGO CUBS -952 CINCINNATI
CHICAGO CUBS are 47-64 SU (-23.4 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.
953WASHINGTON -954 TORONTO
WASHINGTON is 81-47 SU (32.8 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
959KANSAS CITY -960 DETROIT
DETROIT is 22-54 SU (-34.7 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
961TAMPA BAY -962 ATLANTA
TAMPA BAY is 13-5 SU (9.4 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
963BOSTON -964 NY METS
BOSTON is 29-53 SU (-29.5 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons.
965CLEVELAND -966 MINNESOTA
CLEVELAND is 18-7 SU (11.6 Units) in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
967LA DODGERS -968 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 27-14 SU (15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
969SEATTLE -970 LA ANGELS
SEATTLE is 6-15 SU (-10.5 Units) in road games in July games in the last 3 seasons.
971SAN DIEGO -972 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-29 SU (-24.4 Units) in home games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons.
973NY YANKEES -974 BALTIMORE
NY YANKEES are 50-31 SU (22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MLB
Dunkel
Thursday, July 30
Washington @ Toronto
Game 953-954
July 30, 2020 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Fedde) 00.000
Toronto
(Ryu) 00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
N/A
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati
Game 951-952
July 30, 2020 @ 6:10 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Darvish) 14.585
Cincinnati
(Castillo) 15.738
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
-120
9
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-120); Under
NY Yankees @ Baltimore
Game 973-974
July 30, 2020 @ 7:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Happ) 18.404
Baltimore
(Means) 15.144
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 3 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-210
10
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-210); Over
Kansas City @ Detroit
Game 959-960
July 30, 2020 @ 7:10 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Singer) 14.080
Detroit
(Nova) 15.008
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
-120
10
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+100); Under
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Game 961-962
July 30, 2020 @ 7:10 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Yarbrough) 17.568
Atlanta
(Fried) 18.597
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-135
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-135); Under
Boston @ NY Mets
Game 963-964
July 30, 2020 @ 7:07 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Perez) 13.746
NY Mets
(Matz) 15.508
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-150
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-150); Under
Cleveland @ Minnesota
Game 965-966
July 30, 2020 @ 7:07 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
(Bieber) 17.715
Minnesota
(Berrios) 16.573
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-115
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-105); Over
LA Dodgers @ Arizona
Game 967-968
July 30, 2020 @ 9:40 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Strpling) 16.772
Arizona
(Ray) 17.850
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+125); Under
Seattle @ LA Angels
Game 969-970
July 30, 2020 @ 9:40 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(Gonzales) 14.513
LA Angels
(Bundy) 15.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Angels
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-195
9
Dunkel Pick:
LA Angels
(-195); Under
San Diego @ San Francisco
Game 971-972
July 30, 2020 @ 9:45 pm
Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Lamet) 14.884
San Francisco
(Gausman) 15.771
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-175
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+155); Over
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, July 30
National League
Chicago @ Cincinnati
Cubs (4-2):
Darvish allowed three runs in four IP (73 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 3-2, 3.60 in eight starts vs Cincinnati, 1-1, 3.86 in four starts here.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0
— Cubs won four of their first six games.
— Four of their last five games went over.
Reds (2-4):
Castillo allowed one run in six IP (91 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 4-2, 3.56 in 10 starts vs Chicago, 2-1, 3.24 in four starts LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1 Totals: over 1-0
— Reds lost four of their first six games.
— Four of their last five games went over.
Los Angeles @ Arizona
Dodgers (4-2):
Stripling allowed one run in seven IP in his first ’20 start; he is 1-4, 3.86 in 23 games (8 starts) vs Arizona.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0
— Dodgers won four of their first six games; they played 13 innings in Houston last night.
Diamondbacks (2-4):
Ray allowed three runs in 3.2 IP (97 PT) incise first ’20 start; he is 8-5, 3.15 in 20 starts vs LA, 1-2, 4.60 in five starts LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Arizona lost four of its first six games; this is their home opener.
San Diego @ San Francisco
Padres (4-2):
Lamet allowed one run in five IP (80 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 1-1, 3.09 in two starts vs SF.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Padres won four of their first six games, but blew a 6-2 lead last nite.
— Four of San Diego’s last five games stayed under the total.
Giants (3-3):
Bullpen game for the Giants.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0
— Giants split their first six games.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Giant games.
American League
Bronx @ Baltimore
Bronx (3-1):
Happ is making his first ’20 start; he is 9-7, 3.60 in 24 starts vs Baltimore, 2-1, 6.85 in five starts LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: o-0
— Bronx won three of first four games.
Orioles (2-2):
Means missed his start last week with a sore arm; he is 1-2, 7.62 in five games (2 starts) vs Bronx.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0
— Orioles split their first four games.
Cleveland @ Minnesota
Indians (4-2):
Bieber threw six shutout innings in his first’20 start; he is 3-0, 4.14 in 8 games (7 starts) vs Minnesota, 1-0, 4.71 in four games (3 starts) here.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Cleveland won four of its first six games (under 5-1)
Twins (4-1):
Berrios allowed five runs in four IP (78 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 5-2, 3.92 in 11 starts vs Cleveland, 2-0, 2.55 in four starts LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1Totals: under 1-0
— Minnesota won four of its first five games, scoring 36 runs.
Kansas City @ Detroit
Royals (2-4):
Singer allowed two runs in five IP (80 PT) in his MLB debut.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Royals lost four of their first six games (under 4-2).
Tigers (4-2):
Nova allowed three runs in five IP (73 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 3-2, 5.83 in eight starts vs KC.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1 Totals: over 1-0
— Detroit won four of its first six games.
— Under is 3-1 in Detroit’s last four games.
Seattle @ Angels
Mariners (2-4):
Gonzales allowed four runs in 4.1 IP (73 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 5-1, 4.17 in 12 starts vs Anaheim, 2-1, 5.61 in four starts LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0
— Mariners lost four of first six games; they haven’t had a starter finish five innings yet.
— Five of six Seattle games went over the total.
Angels (2-4):
Bundy allowed one run in 6.2 IP (90 PT) in his ’20 debut; he is 1-1, 2.70 in four games (2 starts) vs Seattle.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Angels lost four of their first six games.
— Over is 3-1 in last four Angel games.
Interleague
Toronto @ Washington
Game is in Washington, Blue Jays will bat last- this is their “home” game
Blue Jays (3-3):
Ryu allowed three runs in 4.2 IP (97 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 2-1, 1.35 in five starts vs Washington.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0
— Toronto split its first six games, all on the road- their first game in Buffalo, their temporary home, is August 11.
Nationals (2-4):
Fedde allowed allowed two runs in four IP (68 PT) in his ’20 debut.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0
— Nationals lost four of first six games, scoring five runs in the four losses.
— Washington’s last four games stayed under.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Rays (4-2):
Yarbrough blanked Toronto for 5.1 innings (69 PT) in his ’20 debut.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Rays won four of their last five games, scoring 33 runs.
Braves (3-3):
Fried allowed two runs in five IP (67 PT) in his first ’20 start.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Braves split their first six games.
— Three of last four Atlanta games went over.
Boston @ Mets
Red Sox (2-4):
Perez allowed five runs in five IP (84 PT) in his first ’20 start. He is 1-0, 2.81 in three games (2 starts) against the Mets.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Boston lost four of its last five games, allowing 34 runs.
Mets (3-3):
Matz allowed one run in six IP (93 PT) in his first ’20 start. He’s never pitched against Boston.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0
— Mets split their first six games; they’re 1-3 at home.
MLB
Thursday, July 30
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Trend Report
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Washington @ Toronto
Washington
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Chi Cubs @ Cincinnati
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
NY Yankees @ Baltimore
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Cleveland @ Minnesota
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston @ NY Mets
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Mets's last 10 games
NY Mets is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Kansas City @ Detroit
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games
LA Dodgers @ Arizona
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle @ LA Angels
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
San Diego @ San Francisco
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
MLB public betting, line movement, sharp money for July 30
Patrick Everson
Yu Darvish and the Cubs opened as +105 underdogs against the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday at PointsBet USA, although the favored Reds saw their line shift from -135 to -125.
MLB betting odds for Thursday’s games are posted and drawing early action. Among the noteworthy matchups is an NL Central clash between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds, and a game involving an NL West squad off to a good start in this shortened season.
PointsBet USA provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s contests. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.
MLB line movement
The Reds, behind Luis Castillo, opened -135 at PointsBet USA, but the first move was toward the underdog Cubs and Yu Darvish. Cincinnati ticked to -125 early, with Chicago at +105 for a 6:10 p.m. ET start.
In an AL Central meeting, the Cleveland Indians opened -115 road chalk against the Minnesota Twins (-105), and the matchup moved to a -110 pick 'em late Wednesday night. And on the West Coast, the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants wrap up a four-game series in San Francisco, though that line wasn’t posted by late Wednesday night. San Diego got out to a 4-1 start this season and was on its way to 5-1 Wednesday night before blowing a 6-3 eighth-inning lead to the Giants. First pitch tonight is at 9:45 p.m. ET.