MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, May 23rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Rockies @ Phillies
Marquez is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts; his last four starts stayed under the total.
Eflin is 0-1, 6.88 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over.
Rockies won six of last eight games; over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Phillies lost seven of last eight games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 games.
Pirates @ Braves
Glasnow is 1-2, 9.88 in his last three starts (over 6-1-1).
Teheran is 1-3, 8.55 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six.
Pirates won six of last nine games; under is 15-8-1 in their road games. Atlanta is 8-3 in its last 11 games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games.
Giants @ Cubs
Cueto is 0-2, 4.71 in his last three starts (over 6-2-1).
Hendricks is 2-1, 2.12 in his last five starts, four of which stayed under.
Giants won 10 of last 12 games; four of their last five games went over. Cubs won four of last six games; over is 15-1 in last sixteen games at Wrigley Field.
Padres @ Mets
Chacin is 2-3, 9.12 in five road starts, four of which went over total.
Harvey is 0-3, 9.00 in his last four starts (over 5-2-1).
San Diego lost five of its last six games; they’re 2-5 in road series openers. Over is 8-5-1 in their last 14 road games. Mets lost eight of last ten games, are 4-4 in home series openers. Over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Cardinals @ Dodgers
Lynn is 4-1, 2.57 in his last six starts (over 6-2).
Kershaw is 6-1, 1.99 in his last seven starts; three of his last four starts went over.
St Louis lost four of last five games; they’re 2-3 in road series openers. Over is 9-1-1 in their last 11 road games. Los Angeles won six of last seven home games; they’re 5-2 in home series openers. Last five Dodger games went over the total.
American League
Kansas City @ New York
Duffy is 1-1, 1.31 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven outings.
Montgomery is 1-3, 5.34 in his last five starts (over 4-3).
Royals lost five of last seven games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. New York lost three of last five games; over is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
Twins @ Orioles
Santana is 1-2, 4.95 in his last three starts (under 4-2-3).
Bundy is 4-1, 3.05 in his last seven starts (under 5-4).
Twins are 10-2 in last 12 road games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road tilts. Baltimore won eight of last ten home games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Angels @ Rays
Shoemaker is 2-0, 2.92 in his last two starts (over 5-4).
Cobb is 3-1, 2.96 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts.
Angels won six of last eight games; four of their last six games went over total. Tampa Bay won four of last six games; over is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games.
Rangers @ Red Sox
Cashner is 1-2, 2.31 in his last six starts (under 5-1-1).
Porcello is 1-5, 5.44 in his last seven starts; over is 2-0-1 in his last three.
Texas won 11 of its last 12 games; they’re 3-4 in road series openers. Under is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Boston lost three of last four games; they’re 4-4 in home series openers. Over is 7-1 in last eight Red Sox fans.
Tigers @ Astros
Zimmerman is 3-2, 7.28 in his last seven starts, six of which went over.
McCullers is 2-0, 1.07 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under total.
Tigers lost three of last four games; under is 5-1 in their last six road games. Houston lost three of their last four games; under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Interleague
Mariners @ Nationals
Bergman 1-1, 2.19 in two starts this year (under 2-0).
Ross is back from AAA; he is 1-0, 7.47 in three starts this year (over 3-0). Nationals scored 52 runs in the three games.
Mariners lost 8 of last 11 games, are 2-5 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Washington lost four of last five games; they’re 5-2 in home series openers. Over is 8-3 in Nationals’ last 11 home games.
Indians @ Reds
Carrasco is 3-1, 2.76 in his last five starts (under 7-1).
Garrett 1-3, 7.24 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
Indians won six of last nine road games; under is 14-2 in their last 16 road games. Reds lost eight of last ten games; seven of last eight Cincy games went over the total.
Blue Jays @ Brewers
Biagini is 1-1, 4.85 in three starts this year (over 3-0).
Nelson is 1-0, 1.72 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
Toronto lost five of last seven games; they’re 5-3 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Milwaukee won 10 of last 13 games, is 5-2 in home series openers. Over is 15-3 in last 18 games at Miller Park.
White Sox @ Diamondbacks
Covey is 0-2, 9.00 in his last four starts (over 3-2-2).
Corbin is 1-1, 9.00 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four starts.
White Sox won three of last four games; five of their last seven games went over the total. Arizona won six of its last seven games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine home games.
Marlins @ A’s
Urena is 1-2, 2.55 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
Hahn is 0-2, 5.40 in his last four starts (under 4-3).
Miami is 3-15 in its last 18 games, 2-6 in road series openers. Over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Oakland won three of last four games, is 4-3 in home series openers. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
SF-Chi: Cueto 6-3; Hendricks 4-4
Col-Phil: Marquez 2-3; Eflin 2-4
Pitt-Atl: Glasnow 5-3; Teheran 3-6
SD-NY: Chacin 4-5; Harvey 2-6
StL-LA: Lynn 5-3; Kershaw 7-2
American League
Min-Balt: Santana 6-3; Bundy 6-3
KC-NY: Duffy 4-5; Montgomery 3-4
LA-TB: Shoemaker 6-3; Cobb 4-5
Tex-Bos: Cashner 3-4; Porcello 4-5
Det-Hst: Zimmerman 4-4; McCullers 7-2
Interleague
Sea-Wsh: Bergman 1-1; Ross 3-0
Clev-Cin: Carrasco 6-2; Garrett 4-3
Tor-Mil: Biagini 2-1; Nelson 3-5
CWS-Az: Covey 3-4; Corbin 5-4
Mia-A’s: Urena 1-2; Hahn 2-5
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
SF-Chi: Cueto 3-9; Hendricks 4-8
Col-Phil: Marquez 2-5; Eflin 5-6
Pitt-Atl: Glasnow 3-8; Teheran 4-9
SD-NY: Chacin 3-9; Harvey 4-8
StL-LA: Lynn 3-8; Kershaw 4-9
American League
Min-Balt: Santana 2-9; Bundy 1-9
KC-NY: Duffy 1-9; Montgomery 2-7
LA-TB: Shoemaker 6-9; Cobb 1-9
Tex-Bos: Cashner 2-7; Porcello 2-9
Det-Hst: Zimmerman 4-8; McCullers 1-9
Interleague
Sea-Wsh: Bergman 0-2; Ross 2-3
Clev-Cin: Carrasco 1-8; Garrett 3-7
Tor-Mil: Biagini 1-3; Nelson 2-8
CWS-Az: Covey 4-7; Corbin 5-9
Mia-A’s: Urena 1-3; Hahn 3-7
Umpires
National League
SF-Chi: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Blaser games.
Col-Phil: Four of last five Conroy games stayed under.
Pitt-Atl: Underdogs are 7-4 in last eleven Lentz games.
American League
Min-Balt: Road team won four of last five Gibson games.
KC-NY: Under is 4-2 in Hudson games this season.
LA-TB: Three of last four West games went over total.
Det-Hst: Over is 6-4 in last ten Torres games.
Interleague
Clev-Cin: Home side won four of last five Fagan games.
CWS-Az: Six of last seven TBarrett games went over.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 22-10 AL, favorites -$81
AL @ NL– 21-19 AL, favorites +$62
Total: 43-29 AL, favorites -$19
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 15-17-1
AL @ NL: Over 26-15
Total: Over 41-32-1
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Brewers (10-3 last 13) vs. Blue Jays
Not many people would have predicted Milwaukee to be leading the NL Central towards the end of May. Milwaukee finished off a 4-2 road swing by splitting a two-game set with the Cubs, but the Brewers have gone 5-2-1 in the last eight series since April 26. Since losing the season opener to the Rockies, the Brewers are 5-1 in the past six Game 1’s of a series at Miller Park.
Milwaukee has already beaten Toronto twice this season at Rogers Center, as the Brewers host the Blue Jays for a two-game set at Miller Park. Jimmy Nelson takes the mound for Milwaukee in the series opener, as the Brewers have dropped three straight starts by the right-hander at home since beating the Cubs in early April.
Coldest team: Marlins (2-8 last 10) vs. Athletics
Miami limps into Oakland after dropping three of four to Los Angeles, while failing to win a series in its past eight attempts. Marlins’ pitching is getting knocked around during this cold spell by allowing at least six runs in six of the past seven games, while losing in each of the previous five series openers.
Interleague play hasn’t been kind to the Marlins by compiling a dreadful 2-8 record, but both victories came on the road at Seattle and Tampa Bay. Jose Urena makes his fourth start of the season for Miami, as the right-hander’s only win came on the highway against the Mets by tossing six scoreless innings of one-hit ball in a 7-0 victory earlier this month.
Hottest pitcher: Lance McCullers, Jr., Astros (4-1, 2.65 ERA)
The one-two punch of Dallas Keuchel and McCullers atop the Houston rotation is one of the best in baseball as the right-hander is unbeaten in four starts at Minute Maid Park. McCullers hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last three trips to the mound, while coming off road victories over the Marlins and Yankees his past two times out. The Astros continue their series with the Tigers after shutting out Detroit, 1-0 on Monday as McCullers is facing the Tigers for the first time since his rookie season of 2015.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Harvey, Mets (2-3, 5.56 ERA)
New York rebounded from a seven-game skid by picking up a series victory over the Angels this past weekend at home. However, Harvey is winless in his last six starts, while allowing 20 earned runs in his past four outings. Harvey owns a 1-2 record at Citi Field this season as the Mets open up a series with the struggling Padres. Harvey’s lone double-digit strikeout performance of 2016 came at San Diego last May as he struck out 10 Padres in a 4-3 victory.
Biggest OVER run: Rockies (6-2 last eight)
Colorado cashed its fourth straight OVER in Monday’s 8-1 blowout of Philadelphia, as the Rockies have plated at least six runs in each of these contests. The Rockies enter Tuesday’s action with a 5-2 mark to the OVER in Game 2’s on the road this season, while Phillies’ right-hander Zach Eflin has hit the OVER in five of six starts this season.
Biggest UNDER run: Tigers (7-3 last 10)
Detroit has been the model of inconsistency lately by scoring at least five runs in four of the last seven games. However, the Tigers have also been limited to a total of three runs in the past two games, while getting blanked at Houston on Monday. The UNDER run may change with Jordan Zimmermann taking the mound for the Tigers on Tuesday as Detroit has eclipsed the OVER in six of his last seven starts.
Matchup to watch: Rangers vs. Red Sox
Texas continues to play well following a series victory at Detroit over the weekend to extend its hot winning stretch to 11-1 the last 12 games. The Rangers will be tested again on their road swing at Fenway Park to face a Red Sox squad returning home from a 3-3 trip at St. Louis and Oakland.
The Sox avoided a four-game sweep to the Athletics by blowing out Oakland on Sunday, 12-3. Last season’s Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has slumped to a 2-5 record through nine starts after dropping only four decisions in 33 starts last season. Porcello is winless in his previous four home outings, while laying his biggest number of 2017 on Tuesday by opening up as a -200 favorite at several sports books.
Andrew Cashner counters for Texas as the journeyman right-hander has turned in four consecutive quality starts. Cashner has given up eight earned runs in his previous six starts, but the Rangers have posted an 0-3 record in his three outings away from Arlington. Texas and Boston split six meetings last season as the home team went 2-1 in each series.
Betcha didn’t know: The Giants knocked off the Cubs in the series opener at Wrigley Field on Monday. Johnny Cueto heads to the mound on Tuesday as the right-hander was winless in two starts against Chicago last season. However, the blame can’t be placed on Cueto as he tossed a combined 15 innings and allowed eight hits and two earned runs. But, the Giants lost the two games, 3-2 and 1-0 with the shutout coming in the National League Divisional Series to Jon Lester, who starts for the Cubs opposite Cueto.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-260) vs. Cardinals
Biggest public underdog: Marlins (+105) at Athletics
Biggest line move: Yankees (-135 to -150) vs. Royals
Dodgers host Cardinals
By: StatFox.com
The Dodgers will be going for their fifth win in six games when they host the Cardinals on Tuesday.
The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over the Giants on Sunday, and they’ll now look to start another winning streak on Tuesday. St. Louis had just started playing extremely well before losing series against both Boston and San Francisco. The hope is that they’ll recapture their groove with RHP Lance Lynn (4-2, 2.78 ERA, 40 K) on the mound on Tuesday. Lynn will, however, be tasked with trying to outduel LHP Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 2.15 ERA, 62 K) in this one. To nobody’s surprise, Kershaw has been lights-out this season. He’ll be hoping to keep it up for a Dodgers team that has won four of five coming into this contest. One trend also happens to be favoring Los Angeles in this game, as St. Louis is a miserable 2-9 against the money line when playing after a day off on the season. The Cardinals are, however, 14-4 against the money line in road games in May over the past two seasons. This is the time of year that St. Louis really turns it on, and this group will be confident on Tuesday.
If the Cardinals are going to have a chance to beat the Dodgers on Tuesday then somebody must step their game up and find a way to hit Clayton Kershaw. One guy that just might be able to provide a spark for St. Louis is OF Dexter Fowler (.220 BA, 6 HR, 18 RBI). Fowler is far from the best hitter on this Cardinals team, but he has actually had success against the Dodgers’ ace in the past. In his career against Kershaw, Fowler is hitting .409 with two doubles, a triple, and an RBI in 44 at-bats. It’d be big if he can keep it up on Tuesday. Another guy that could come through for St. Louis is 3B Jedd Gyorko (.331 BA, 7 HR, 18 RBI). Gyorko is having a great season for the Cardinals and also happens to be the only guy on this team that has homered off of Kershaw in his career. It’d be huge if he can find a way to go yard again here. The Cardinals are also going to need a great performance from Lynn in this game. He is coming off of an outing against Boston that saw him allow just two earned runs in six innings of work on May 16. That type of performance is possibly not good enough here, as Kershaw is unhittable on most nights.
The Dodgers are hoping to stay hot on Tuesday, and they’ll definitely be confident with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. The superstar is coming off of one of his best starts of the season on May 17, as he threw seven innings of shutout ball against the Giants in that one. Kershaw has now allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his nine starts, and he has pitched at least seven innings in seven of those starts as well. He is as consistent as they come for an ace, and he should have no trouble shutting down St. Louis on Tuesday. The Dodgers will, however, need to come through offensively for their ace. Two guys that should be able to do that are SS Corey Seager (.292 BA, 7 HR, 23 RBI) and OF Cody Bellinger (.295 BA, 9 HR, 24 RBI). Both of these young guys have been great for the Dodgers, and they’ll need to provide a spark with Los Angeles dealing with a bunch of injuries.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds (+150, 8.5)
Baseball, in general, has been punishing the books with Over play thus far during the 2017 season. Surprise - the betting public likes to bet Overs. Prior to a brief hiccup of 2-6 on Monday, Over was 72-34-2 (68 percent) over the previous eight days. Before the "things will eventually even out" crowd even gets started, don't forget that scoring is way up across Major League Baseball as a result of a tightening of the strike zone. All of these young pitchers coming into the game are too good so the league had to step in and address the issue - there was talk about lowering the mound by an inch or two, but tightening the zone works just as well.
The game in Cincinnati tonight between the Reds and the visiting Cleveland Indians could continue the offensive trend around the league. Tonight's "Battle of Ohio" matchup features Indians' starter Carlos Carrasco taking on Amir Garrett of the Reds at Great American Ball Park.
Over has cashed in six of the last seven "Battle Of Ohio" matchups and Reds' starter Garrett has been absolutely awful in his last four outings with 18 earned runs allowed over 20.1 innings (7.97 ERA) and a very Over-friendly 6.64 walks per nine innings. Over bettors love walks and Amir Garrett loves to make us happy little gamblers.
The x-factor in this game is Carrasco. He's having a tremendous season with Under cashing in seven of his eight starts, however, the Indians' ace is coming off a performance where he allowed five runs over 3.2 innings and left the game (and missed a start) with pectoral tightness. The Over has cashed in 13 of Carrasco's last 14 starts with seven or more days of rest.
Pick: Over 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers (-108, 8.5)
2017 has been a surprising season for both Toronto and Milwaukee, but in two very different ways, as the Blue Jays are in the basement of the AL East, while the Brewers have slugged their way to the top of the NL Central. The two teams going in opposite directions meet for a mini two-game series in Milwaukee starting Tuesday.
The Brewers offense has been flat out mashing the ball through the first two months of the season. Milwaukee ranks third in runs scored, third in OPS and first in home runs. The face of the Brew Crew’s new slugging way is Eric Thames. The 30-year-old is hitting .309, with a whopping 1.094 OPS and 13 home runs.
The Brewers pitching remain inconsistent, with their staff ranking 15th in ERA, 28th in WHIP and 29th in quality starts. Milwaukee sends Jimmy Nelson to the mound to face the Jays lineup that is starting to wake up, as well as get healthy, scoring 5.3 runs per game over the last 12 games.
Toronto counters with converted reliever Joe Biagini. The former Rule 5 draft pick is coming off his worst outing as a starter, allowing five runs on six hits in four innings against Atlanta. Biagini had pitched nine shutout innings in his first two starts.
A big problem for the Jays has been the bullpen. If they can get to the eighth inning Joe Smith and Roberto Osuna have been more than reliable, but getting to the eighth is a problem. Especially with Biagini not stretched out like a regular starter yet. Jason Grilli and J.P. Howell have been a disaster.
Even with Thames questionable to play Tuesday, the combination of hot Brewers bats, heating up Jays bats and the dumpster fire of a Jays bullpen could mean plenty of runs.
Pick: Over 8.5
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 41-32-3
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Lance McCullers, Houston Astros (4-1, 2.65 ERA, $484)
The Houston Astros have the best record in baseball and the one-two punch at the top of their rotation is a big reason why.
The No. 2 in that one-two punch is Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros young right-hander has been all but untouchable recently. In his last three starts he has given up zero earned runs, scattering nine hits over 19 innings, while racking up 14 strikeouts.
McCullers Jr. and the Astros are heavy -225 home favorites tonight against the visiting Tigers.
Slumping: Matt Harvey, New York Mets (2-3, 5.56, $-514)
It has been a season to forget in the Big Apple for Matt Harvey and the Mets, as New York has dropped the former ace's last six starts.
Harvey's last four starts have been particularly brutal. The right-hander has pitched to a massive 9.00 ERA in those four outings and a WHIP of 2.15, thanks to walking 17 batters in just 20 innings of work.
Luckily for Harvey and the Mets, they welcome the Padres to town. New York is currently a -130.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* The Seattle Mariners are 1-11 in their last 12 meetings with the Washington Nationals. Nats -160 today.
* Over is 14-1-1 in Cubs last 16 home games. O/U: 7.5 vs. Giants.
* Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall. Rangers +165 @ Red Sox.
* The St. Louis Cardinals are 9-0 in their last 9 road games. +215 today @ Dodgers.
* Over is 11-1 in Alex Cobb's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Angels vs. Rays O/U: 8.5.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Rain will be a factor in a few baseball cities this evening.
The wet stuff is expected all day in D.C. where the Nationals are scheduled to host the Seattle Mariners and there is rain in the forecast for last evening on the North Side of Chicago where the Cubbies welcome the San Francisco Giants. Expect a wash-out in D.C. and if the rain gets started at Wrigley Field in time the M's/Cubs' game may not be able to be completed.
There is a 50 percent chance of rain at Camden Yards in Baltimore where the Orioles will host the Minnesota Twins.
Wind should not be a factor in any Major League Baseball games today.
Ump Of The Day
Chris Conroy: Balls and strikes will be handled today in Philadelphia by Chris Conroy and he brings with him a couple of massive trends. He has definitely proven to be an Under umpire with the Under holding a 16-4-1 advantage over his last 21 assignments behind the dish. Even more eye-opening is his Under tendency in games with a total of 8.5 over the last four seasons at 15-4. The total today between the Rockies and Phillies is currently on that 8.5 number.
If you thought his Under numbers were one-sided, his recent moneyline results in games involving the Rockies are astounding. The Rockies are 0-11 in their last 11 games with Conroy calling the game from behind the plate. 0-11!!! If you are thinking about fading the Rox tonight the Phillies are paying +115 at home.