MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, June 27th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cubs @ Nationals
Arrieta is 2-2, 3.97 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Cubs are 1-5 in his last six road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2
Scherzer is 4-2, 1.69 in his last six starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Washington is 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-4-1
Cubs won six of their last nine games; under is 9-1 in their last ten games. Washington is 3-5 in its last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Mets @ Marlins
Gsellman is 0-2, 14.46 in his last two starts (over 10-3). Mets are 3-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7
Straily is 1-0, 0.73 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Miami is 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1
Mets won their last three games, are 6-5 in road series openers. Over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Miami is 9-3 in last 12 home games, 5-8 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Brewers @ Reds
Guerra is 0-1, 4.70 in his last four starts (over 4-3). Brewers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-2-2
Adleman is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Reds are 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1
Milwaukee is 7-5 in its last 12 road games, 6-5 in road series openers. Last five Brewer games stayed under the total. Reds lost 14 of last 16 games; they’re 6-7 in home series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
Martinez is 2-1, 1.71 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Cardinals are their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2
Walker is 3-0, 2.12 in his last three starts; over is 3-2 in his home starts. Arizona is 3-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-3-1
St Louis lost five of last seven home games (won last two); they’re 5-8 in home series openers. Over is 6-1 in their last seven home games. Arizona is 15-3 in its last 18 games, 8-4 in home series openers. Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Braves @ Padres
Newcomb is 0-2, 2.45 in his three starts this year (under 3-0). Braves’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-2
Chacin is 2-1, 2.80 in his last three starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11. San Diego is 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-9-2
Braves won seven of last nine games, are 7-3 in last ten road series openers. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. San Diego won five of last six home games, are 10-3 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Rockies @ Giants
Hoffman is 3-0, 1.33 in three road starts (1-1, 8.36 at home); over is 5-1 in his starts. Colorado’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-1
Cain is 0-6, 7.75 in his last seven starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Giants are 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-10-1
Rockies lost their last six games; under is 4-2 in their last six road games. Giants lost 12 of last 14 games; over is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
American League
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Gausman is 0-3, 9.20 in his last three starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Orioles lost his last six road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-10
Biagini is 1-4, 6.41 in his last five starts (under 6-3). Toronto is 1-3 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-5
Orioles are 3-12 in last 15 road games, but won last two; they’re 3-9 in road series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten road games. Toronto is 5-7 in its last 12 games, 4-8 in home series openers. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games.
Twins @ Red Sox
Santiago is 0-4, 9.55 in his last five starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Minnesota is 1-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1
Pomeranz is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Boston is 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him:
Twins won five of last seven games; under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games. Red Sox lost three of last five games; under is 4-1 in their last five home games.
Royals @ Tigers
Strahm is 1-1, 6.75 in two starts this year (over 2-0). Royals’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Verlander is 0-1, 4.73 in his last six starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Detroit is 5-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-3
Royals are 11-3 in last 14 games, 5-6 in road series openers. Over is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games. Detroit lost eight of last nine games, is 7-4 in home series openers. Four of their last five games went over.
Rangers @ Indians
Ross is 1-1, 9.35 in two starts this year (over 2-0). Rangers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Clevinger is 1-2, 5.03 in his last four starts (under 6-2). Indians’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1
Rangers are 8-3 in last 11 road games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Cleveland lost three of last four games; five of last six Indian games stayed under the total.
A’s @ Astros
Manaea is 5-1, 3.27 in his last seven starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Oakland won hi last three road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-4-4
Fiers is 4-0, 2.01 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under. Houston is 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-2
A’s are 7-4 in last 11 games, 3-9 in road series openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Houston is off a 6-1 road trip; they’re 7-5 in home series openers. Under is 12-7-1 in their last 20 home games.
New York @ White Sox
Severino is 1-1, 4.50 in his last four starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. New York is 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-3-2
Quintana is 2-0, 0.48 in his last two starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Chicago is Chicago is 2-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-9-1
New York lost 10 of last 13 games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Chicago lost seven of last eight games; four of their last six games stayed under the total.
Interleague
Rays @ Pirates
Cobb is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Tampa Bay is 5-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-4-2
Williams is 0-0, 6.60 in his last three starts ; over is 3-1 in his last four. Pirates split his four home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-1
Rays lost six of last nine road games, are 7-5 in road series openers. Last seven Tampa Bay games went over the total. Pittsburgh lost three of last four home games, is 5-7 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Angels @ Dodgers
Chavez is 0-1, 7.98 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five road starts. Angels are 4-1 in his last five road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8-1
Maeda is 4-1, 3.52 in his last seven starts; over is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Dodgers are 4-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4
Angels are 9-4 in last 13 road games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Dodgers won 10 of their last 11 games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
Phillies @ Mariners
Nola is 2-2, 3.42 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Phillies are 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3-3
Paxton is 0-2, 10.38 in his last three starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Seattle is 4-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-7
Phillies are 3-16 in their last 19 games, 6-7 in road series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Mariners won six of last eight games (lost last two), are 11-2 in home series openers. Four of their last five games went over.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Chi-Wsh: Arrieta 8-7; Scherzer 9-6
NY-Mia: Gsellman 7-6; Straily 8-7
Mil-Cin: Guerra 3-4; Adleman 5-7
StL-Az: Martinez 8-7; Walker 8-3
Atl-SD: Newcomb 1-2; Chacin 7-8
Col-SF: Hoffman 5-1; Cain 6-9
American League
Balt-Tor: Gausman 7-9; Biagini 4-5
Minn-Bos: Santiago 5-7; Pomeranz 8-6
KC-Det: Strahm 1-1; Verlander 7-8
Tex-Clev: Ross 1-1; Clevinger 4-4
A’s-Hst: Manaea 7-6; Fiers 9-5
NY-Chi: Severino 7-7; Quintana 7-8
Interleague
TB-Pitt: Cobb 7-8; Williams 5-4
LAA-LA: Chavez 8-7; Maeda 8-3
Phil-Sea: Nola 4-6; Paxton 6-5
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Chi-Wsh: Arrieta 5-15; Scherzer 3-15
NY-Mia: Gsellman 7-13; Straily 2-15
Mil-Cin: Guerra 1-7; Adleman 4-12
StL-Az: Martinez 3-15; Walker 3-11
Atl-SD: Newcomb 1-3; Chacin 7-15
Col-SF: Hoffman 0-6; Cain 6-15
American League
Balt-Tor: Gausman 4-16; Biagini 2-9
Minn-Bos: Santiago 3-12; Pomeranz 5-14
KC-Det: Strahm 1-2; Verlander 5-15
Tex-Clev: Ross 2-2; Clevinger 1-8
A’s-Hst: Manaea 3-13; Fiers 6-14
NY-Chi: Severino 3-14; Quintana 3-15
Interleague
TB-Pitt: Cobb 3-15; Williams 4-9
LAA-LA: Chavez 2-15; Maeda 5-11
Phil-Sea: Nola 3-10; Paxton 1-11
Umpires
National League
Chi-Wash: Under is 3-1-1 in last five Vanover games.
Col-SF: Underdogs are 8-5 in last 13 BWelke games.
American League
Tex-Clev: Over is 6-2 in last eight Segal games.
Min-Bos: Underdogs are 7-3 in last ten Kellogg games.
NY-Chi: Four of last five Wolf games stayed under.
Interleague
LAA-LA: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Estabrook games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 40-22 AL, favorites +$18
AL @ NL– 39-37 AL, favorites -$984
Total: 79-58 AL, favorites -$966
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 40-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 43-28-2
Total: Over 83-54-3
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Diamondbacks (5-1 past six games, 15-3 past 18 overall)
The Diamondbacks won the final three games of a wraparound series against the Phillies, outscoring the visitors 17-4 during the span. Unfortunately for Arizona, the first-place Dodgers have been on fire and are 10-1 over their past 11 outings. As far as bettors are concerned, Arizona has been a friend at the betting window, especially when facing lesser teams. The Diamondbacks are an impressive 26-6 over their past 32 home games against teams with a losing record, and 40-17 in their past 57 overall against teams with a losing overall mark. Arizona turns to Taijuan Walker, and the Snakes are 7-2 over his past nine outings.
Coldest team: Philies (2-8 past 10 games, 3-16 past 19 overall)
The Phillies turn to Aaron Nola to try and stop the bleeding in the interleague road series in Seattle against the Mariners. Philadelphia hasn't found much success since the opening month of the season, going just 12-39 over their past 51 games overall. They're a dismal 1-8 over their past nine interleague games, 11-40 across the past 51 on the road and 2-5 over their past seven outings against a left-handed starting pitcher. The Phils are just 1-5 over Nola's past six interleague assignments, 3-8 in his past 11 outings on the road and 5-13 over his past 18 starts overall.
Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (8-5, 2.09 ERA)
Scherzer puts his major league-leading 2.09 ERA on the line against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. While his overall record isn't terribly impressive, his NL-high 145 strikeouts over 107 2/3 innings is eye popping. He also has walked just 24 batters while holding the opposition to a .167 average with a 0.81 WHIP. The Nationals have been ripe for the picking at home, going just 3-7 over their past 10 in D.C.. However, they're 22-9 over Scherzer's past 31 starts overall while going 5-1 in his past six when he is working on five days of rest. And for what it's worth, Washington is a perfect 6-0 in their past six games on Tuesday.
Coldest pitcher: Kevin Gausman, Orioles (3-7, 6.47 ERA)
Gausman has issued 39 free passes over 80 2/3 innings across just 16 starts, and his 6.47 ERA isn't doing him many favors, either. The opposition is hitting a robust .332 against Gausman and he has been tagged for an awful 1.88 WHIP while showing no signs of turning things around. He has gone from ace-like to Ubaldo Jimenez-like in the course of the past year or so. Baltimore is 4-9 over Gausman's past 13 outings, 8-25 over his past 33 road starts and the O's are 3-12 in their past 15 road games vs. RHP. It looks like another bumpy night for the Orioles.
Biggest UNDER run: Padres (5-1 past six games)
The 'under' has connected in five of the past six for the Padres, and the under is 8-2-1 in their past 11 in the third game of a series. They're also 5-1 in Clayton Richard's past six starts on a Sunday, while going 3-0-1 over his past four against a team with a losing record. The over has been hitting for Detroit lately, going 3-1-1 in their past five road games. However, the under is 5-2-1 in Detroit's past eight interleague road outings and 3-1-1 in Jordan Zimmermann's past five road starts. The over hit in Saturday's game, but the under easily cashed in Friday's interleague series opener.
Biggest OVER run: Orioles (18-7-1 past 26 overall, 8-2 past 10 road games)
The 'over' has been hitting frequently for Baltimore lately, going 8-2 over the past 10 road games while posting an 18-7-1 mark over the past 26 games overall. The over is 7-0 in Baltimore's past seven road games vs. RHP while also going 7-0 in theirp ast seven against divisional foes. The over is also 4-1 in Toronto's past five games, and 6-2 in their past eight following a scheduled day off. However, the under is 14-3 in the past 17 meetings between these divisional rivals and 7-2 in the past nine at Rogers Centre in Toronto.
Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Cubs
The Cubs turn to Jake Arrieta to keep the ball rolling in D.C. The defending champs held off the Nationals in the ninth inning in the series opener, although things certainly got hairy. Chicago led 5-0, but the bullpen was beaten up for four runs in the bottom of the frame. 'Under' bettors (10), who hadn't a care in the world after just two total runs through eight innings, needed a stiff drink after a total of seven runs in the final stanza and two runners on base with two outs. Closer Wade Davis saved the day with a strikeout of Ryan Zimmerman, but it was a close shave for total bettors and Cubs side bettors alike.
Betcha didn’t know: Two Cubs hitters bring career-high hitting streaks into Tuesday's game in Washington. Javier Baez has collected 13 hits over his past 31 at-bats over his eight-game hitting streak while Ian Happ is an impressive 12-for-28 while hitting safely across the past seven outings. They'll certainly have to earn their hits on Tuesday, as Scherzer is 2-1 with a 3.19 ERA in five career outings against the Cubbies, and he carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning last time out in Miami.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-220) vs. Angels
Biggest public underdog: Twins (+200) at Red Sox
Biggest line move: Dodgers (-190 to -225) vs. Angels
MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Tampa Bay (-105) at Pittsburgh; Total: 9
We start with a virtual money line pick ‘em game in the Steel City, where the Pirates host the Rays in interleague action. With Anaheim’s win over the Dodgers last night, the AL is now 83-59 in interleague play and is +84 in run differential. I don’t know if that necessarily means anything in this spot, but we know that interleague creates an inherent imbalance because pitchers basically cancel out, regardless of league, but NL teams generally don’t have a capable DH.
Here, the Rays won’t have the services of a DH, but Alex Cobb will be on the mound. Cobb seems to be putting it together of late. Cobb has a 4.05 ERA with a 4.15 FIP and a 4.59 xFIP on the season. Cobb allowed nine runs on June 3 against Seattle, but he has given up just six earned runs over the other four starts since May 28. He’s cut back on his walks and he’s getting closer to a strikeout per inning. After allowing five home runs in his first four starts, Cobb has allowed just five more over his last 11 starts. Guys that don’t give up home runs are like gold nowadays.
Trevor Williams has a 5.09 ERA with a 4.38 FIP and a 4.85 xFIP. The one silver lining for Williams in this start is that he doesn’t allow a lot of home runs. He’s allowed seven in 58.1 innings of work and the Rays do a lot of their damage with the long ball. Outside of that, Williams isn’t a great matchup against anybody. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats and struggles to get out of jams. In his MLB career covering 71 innings, Williams has a 62.5 percent LOB%.
I’m looking at the under in this game. PNC Park is not a good park for power, which neutralizes a lot of Tampa Bay’s offensive strength. I think there’s also a little bit of a unique element to playing in a park that you rarely play in. There’s an unfamiliarity with the city, facilities, etc., which takes a day or two to get accustomed to. The Rays also lose a hitter. I’ve been impressed with Cobb lately, so I’d still lean Rays on the side, but I think the under is my preferred play.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati (-125); Total: 10
There are a lot of really chalky games on the early portion of the slate. Even the Cubs are +155 or +160 against the Nationals. This line actually surprises me a bit. I know that the marker has been looking to go against the Brewers and that Tim Adleman has taken on some money in recent starts, but it is interesting to see a Reds team that got off to a good start and has sputtered around since getting such a position from the oddsmakers.
Junior Guerra is a big part of the reason why. Guerra has a 3.11 ERA, but he also has a 6.04 FIP and a 5.82 xFIP. He’s gotten very fortunate to strand 88 percent of his baserunners with a .212 BABIP against. Guerra has 27 strikeouts against 22 walks in 37.2 innings of work and he has allowed seven home runs, so he’s really fighting with his control and command. That isn’t a big surprise. One of the worst things that can happen to a pitcher is an injury in his first or second start of the season. You spend all that time in Spring Training building up arm strength and command and then you get hurt. In Guerra’s case, he missed about six weeks before making some rehab starts. That makes it really difficult to get into a rhythm for the season.
Guerra has managed to throw three straight quality starts, so he has kept his potent offense in the game. There are obviously red flags with the advanced metrics and the obscene walk rate, but Guerra hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact, so he’s been able to minimize the damage.
Tim Adleman has a 4.30 ERA with a 5.17 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP. Adleman has given up 13 dingers in 69 innings of work. His batted ball profile is similar to Guerra’s, so these two pitchers are pretty similar as far as I’m concerned. I guess Cincinnati gets a HFA bump, but it’s not an overly significant one. The Reds bullpen has faltered lately, while the Brewers has gotten stronger. This line just seems off a little bit. I’m not riding the coattails of either one of these pitchers and the Brewers strike me as the better team, so I’d roll with the road dog in this one.
New York (AL) (-140) at Chicago (AL); Total: 8.5
A recent run of good starts by Jose Quintana has briefly interrupted the “Fade Chicago against every right-hander” trend. It’s interesting to me that it stops with a guy like Luis Severino, given that it happened with Jharel Cotton and Daniel Gossett over the weekend, but Quintana has been pitching well and people are respecting that.
Severino has been terrific this season with a 3.30 ERA, a 3.35 FIP, and a 3.18 xFIP. Severino has struck out 95 in 87.1 innings of work and has only walked 24. After allowing six home runs over his first five starts, Severino has only allowed four home runs over his last nine starts, so he’s been really strong this year for the Yankees. He seems like exactly the type of pitcher you would want to back against the White Sox right now. That being said, Severino has given up 10 runs on 12 hits over his last 12 innings in starts at Oakland and against the Angels. Maybe bettors are a little bit gun-shy to back him off those two bad outings, but I’m not. I’m just chalking that up to a little bit of variance and LOB% regression, which was coming for Severino.
In a very un-Quintana-like season, the left-hander has a 4.69 ERA with a 4.07 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP. Who knows if it was the endless trade speculation or something else that affected Quintana, but he’s been dealing lately. He has allowed just six runs over his last four starts with a 24/8 K/BB ratio across 24 innings of work. That run comes after Quintana allowed 15 runs over seven innings against Boston and Arizona to wrap up the month of May. Quintana is building up his trade value for the White Sox, which may be the best thing about their season so far.
Quintana has been very good recently, but Severino has been good pretty much all season. I think this is a case of recency bias in terms of the line move because the market has been fading the White Sox every day against a righty. I realize the desire to back a guy like Quintana, who undoubtedly has a track record of being effective. These two bullpens are both strong at the back end if it is a close game, so you could probably justify Chicago +135 or +130 in a battle of bullpens.
My lean here remains the Yankees, but seeing the market on the White Sox does worry me given the constant fade of Chicago otherwise.
St. Louis (-125) at Arizona; Total: 8.5
Carlos Martinez battles it out with Taijuan Walker tonight at Chase Field as the Cardinals and Diamondbacks fire up their three-game series. We’ve seen a swift line move in this one, as Walker and Arizona opened around -110 and now the Cardinals are a clear favorite. It’s a bit surprising because Arizona has been probably the hottest team in baseball over the last few weeks. They’ve been mostly able to keep pace with the Dodgers, while the Rockies have fallen back a few steps.
I certainly understand the desire to back Martinez. He has a 2.87 ERA with a 3.33 FIP and a 3.49 xFIP on the year in 100.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 111 in that span and has done a brilliant job of inducing weak contact and keeping the ball in the park. He’s everything that you’d want in a pitcher. The Cardinals aren’t exactly everything that you’d want in a team, though. Their offense is extremely inconsistent and their bullpen hasn’t performed up to its capabilities. Martinez, despite the sterling numbers, is just 6-6. Pitcher win-loss record doesn’t mean anything, but it illustrates how poorly other parts of the team have performed.
Taijuan Walker has a 3.43 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP on the year across 63 innings. He’s had a few injury problems that have popped up, but credit to him for not letting those derail his season. Walker has not given up more than four runs in a start this season, which is extremely impressive for a guy that had the consistency problems that he had back in Seattle. Walker has only allowed five home runs as well. He has made seven of his 11 starts away from Chase Field and hasn’t started at home since May 13 due to injuries and the schedule, so we’ll see if any adjustment needs to be made. In fact, Walker’s three worst starts, the three starts when he allowed four runs, have all come at home.
I was going to be on Walker and the Diamondbacks until I read that. It’s an extremely small sample size to be sure, but I think there’s something to it, since Chase Field is not a good pitcher’s park at all. If I had to play this game, I’d look Arizona. Since I don’t, I won’t be invested.
Atlanta at San Diego (-110); Total: 8
We’ve been seeing some San Diego money in the marketplace lately and we see it again here today with Jhoulys Chacin up against Sean Newcomb. The Braves have quietly been a pretty good offensive team without Freddie Freeman and have played some decent baseball of late.
I’ve talked about the Padres recently in that they are a team that should be an outlier in Pythagorean Win-Loss because they’ll win some games, mostly close games, but get blown out a lot. We saw it with the Phillies last year, who were 62-100 per Pyth W-L, but won 71 games. Bad teams don’t have the ability to blow opponents out, but they are often bad because of their starting pitching, so they suffer a fair amount of lopsided defeats. I think we’re seeing some Padres movement because they appear to be worse than they actually are and that’s having an impact on the betting market.
This game has a tinge of ERA/xFIP to it as well. Chacin has a 4.95 ERA with a 4.20 xFIP on the season. Newcomb has only made three starts, but he has a 1.96 ERA with a 4.34 xFIP. The Braves are also making a long cross-country trip to play outside of the Eastern Time Zone for the first time since May 31. In fact, the Braves have only played three road games since June 4, in what is a remarkably odd scheduling quirk. This was pretty stunning actually when I looked.
I think that makes San Diego a play. This is a very unique scheduling spot with the Braves playing so far away from home after barely leaving for basically three weeks. Newcomb has been effectively wild in his starts, which is basically how he posted good numbers in the minors. I think I’d lean under as well because of the unfamiliar lefty angle with Newcomb, but the Padres appear to be a decent side play.
Colorado (-135) at San Francisco; Total: 8.5
Hmmm. The Rockies are 0-6 over their last six games and are a very clear road favorite at San Francisco against a Giants team that has been pretty bad in their own right. Jeff Hoffman saw a big reversal of fortunes in his last start as he allowed nine runs on eight hits to move up to a 4.29 ERA. He has a 2.86 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP. Bad starts happen and it is what it is. Outside of that, Hoffman had allowed eight runs across five starts with 36 K in 31 innings of work.
Matt Cain has a 5.54 ERA with a 5.17 FIP and a 5.31 xFIP. It’s really sad to see what has happened to Cain and how quickly he has fallen off because of injuries. Cain has virtually no command at this point. He has a .340 BABIP against and has allowed 12 HR in 78 innings after allowing 16 in 89.1 innings last year. He hasn’t worked more than five innings since May 26, so the Giants have had to use their bullpen a lot in his outings. It’s just not a pretty profile at all.
This is a game that the Rockies should win. This is a game that newcomers on the contending scene need to win. You have to win on the road when you’re supposed to and the Rockies are supposed to win this game. They should, but I won’t pay -135 to look for it. Colorado has already been an overachiever on the road and hasn’t played good baseball lately. I’m concerned because I’ve been expecting regression and it appears to be hitting.
There’s nothing wrong with a pass here.
Twins, Red Sox meet in Boston
By: StatFox.com
The Twins will be looking to get right back into the win column with a win over the Red Sox on Tuesday.
Minnesota had won three straight games and five of its past six before losing 4-1 against Boston on Monday night. The Twins could not find a way to figure out Chris Sale in that one, but they should have a bit better luck this time around. The Sox, meanwhile, badly needed that victory. The win prevented a three-game losing streak for Boston, and the team will now look to win a second straight here. The starters in this Tuesday night contest are set to be LHP Hector Santiago (4-6, 5.26 ERA, 47 K) for Minnesota and LHP Drew Pomeranz (6-4, 4.07 ERA, 82 K) for Boston. With a pair of lefties on the mound, it’ll be interesting to see what lineups each team trots out. One trend that favors the Twins in this one is the fact that they are 20-9 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. They are also 23-10 against the money line when playing on the road in general. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are an impressive 24-8 against the money line after having lost two of their past three games this season. Both teams are pretty close to full strength also, so injuries should not factor much into the outcome.
The Twins have surprisingly kept up their strong play from early in the year, and it’s starting to look like they might just be a real threat to make the postseason. This team does, however, need some more out of Tuesday’s starter, Hector Santiago. Santiago is insanely inconsistent for Minnesota, and he just allowed five earned runs in 2.2 innings of work against Seattle on Jun. 6. He allowed six earned runs in the start before, and the Twins will be begging for a quality start out of him on Tuesday. That is not going to be easy, though. Offensively, two guys that must come through for Minnesota in this one are 2B Brian Dozier (.250, 13 HR, 35 RBI) and 3B Miguel Sano (.278 BA, 18 HR, 52 RBI). Dozier has been struggling this year, as he is on pace for only 28 homers on the season. He hit 42 a year ago, so perhaps a hot streak is coming. Sano, meanwhile, has been one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. The Twins will be counting on him to provide a spark on Tuesday.
The Red Sox are hoping to earn a second straight victory and will need Drew Pomeranz to shut down a dangerous Twins lineup in this one. The lefty has been very good for Boston this season, and he has turned in 12.2 innings of three-run ball over his past two starts. Pomeranz struck out nine batters over those two games, and he has now allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his past 10 appearances for the Sox. He’ll look to build on that and pitch yet another gem on Tuesday. On offense, the Red Sox will be hoping that both OF Mookie Betts (.269 BA, 12 HR, 40 RBI) and SS Xander Bogaerts (.316 BA, 5 HR, 34 RBI) can get it going. Betts has not been himself this season, but it would not be surprising if he had a very strong second half of the year. Bogaerts, meanwhile, will just need to keep up his excellent play. He has been incredible for the Sox this season, and he is a big reason this team is tied for the lead in the AL East.
Tuesday MLB Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Sportsbook.ag Odds: New York (-134), Chicago (+124); Total set at 8
The Yankees were able to hang on for a 6-5 win in the series opener last night as things got real dicey for them in the 9th inning after entering the frame with a 6-1 lead. Three of those runs came on a HR by Tim Anderson, and given the recent struggles New York has had (2-7 SU last nine prior to last night), Yankees fans had to be expecting the worst the longer that inning wore on.
All's well that ends well though for the Yankees and their fans and tonight they'll be looking to get another victory and guarantee themselves at least a split of this four-game series.
What may have been lost on some bettors holding Yankees ML tickets last night and sweating out the 9th was the fact that all those runs the White Sox put up in that final frame were enough to push the total 'over' the number of 10. I know that fact wasn't lost on 'under' bettors who were likely cursing the Yankees bullpen the rest of the night, as it truly was a bad beat in that regard.
Considering 80% or more of the action on that total was on the high side of the number, there were plenty of bettors who ended the night on a high note with that lucky win as bookmakers were left scratching their heads and moving on to today's action.
Today's game opened up with a total of 9 and thanks to about a 70/30 split in favor of the 'under' according to Vegas Insider's betting percentage numbers, this total has dropped a full run down to 8. The pitching matchup betweeen Severino and Quintana has a lot to do with that as even the Yankees ML odds have seen a significant drop from the opening numbers, with Quintana still being one of those quality, undervalued starters that many bettors like to back when there is some value.
Quintana's 2.41 ERA over his last three starts and his 5-10 O/U record overall this year lends credence to those looking at Chicago ML and/or 'under', but if you expect tonight's total to play out similar to last night's game without the 'lucky' over finish as it appears most are, I wouldn't be so quick to think that will be the case.
For one, the line move of a full run is simply too much for these two teams who can mash the ball when they are rolling. Severino and Quintana have been great for the majority of 2017, but Severino has fallen on some rough outings of late, and Quintana's last start at home was a 13-7 loss to the Red Sox where he only lasted 2.2 innings.
Furthermore, both of these starters have enjoyed tremendous run support of late, as the Yankees have put up 9 runs/game of support for Severino in his last three outings, and Quintana isn't far behind that number as he's gotten 7.3 runs/game from his teammates over his last three starts.
Those numbers may be skewed a bit from a blowout win or two, but getting plenty of run support has been the norm for these guys all year. New York averages 5.2 runs/game with Severino on hill and the White Sox are at 4.3/game with Quintana toeing the rubber.
Finally, we can't forget about the man who's calling balls and strikes tonight as HP umpire Jim Wolf will be donning the gear. Wolf has a 43-27-7 O/U record overall the past two years and comes in with a 9-5-1 O/U clip this year. American League games that he has been behind the plate this year have averaged 12.2 runs and that's more than enough to eclipse tonight's total that has been bet down.
Oddsmakers aren't in the business of putting out too many bad opening numbers and while there are times they like to put out a generic number and wait for the movement, tonight's one of those spots where they are likely happy to be taking a position on the high side of this total.
Best Bet: New York/Chicago Over 8
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (-160, 9.5)
Both the Orioles and Blue Jays have experienced their fair share of highs and lows this season and these American League East rivals hope to get out of their current funks when they begin a three-game set in Toronto Tuesday night.
Oh the Orioles, what can be said that hasn’t been said already? For those of you living under a rock for the month of June here it is: Baltimore had allowed five or more runs in 20 consecutive games but the...umm..."streak" came to an end Saturday in an 8-3 win over Tampa Bay. However, the trend returned just one game later in an 8-5 win on Sunday.
So once again, Baltimore has allowed five or more runs in 21 of their last 22 games. Not surprisingly the Over is 15-6-1 in those contests.
The Orioles send Kevin Gausman to the mound in Tuesday’s opener and his June has been a pretty accurate reflection of his team’s month. The right-hander is 0-3 in four starts with an 8.02 ERA and a 2.016 WHIP.
Baltimore’s once renowned bullpen has also struggled in 2017, ranking 15th in ERA having blown 12 saves this season.
The Blue Jays counter with right-hander Joe Biagini. The reliever-turned-starter has stumbled in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs on 15 hits in just 6.2 innings pitched.
Both the Orioles and Jays offenses have been inconsistent at times, but both should show up Tuesday night in a series both teams need to turn things around.
Pick: Over 9.5
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (+115, 8.5)
We were on the Rockies to take down the dodgy Giants last night as road underdogs and got burned by a rare solid performance by Jeff Samardzija. Tonight, things are back to normal with the Rox listed as slight faves and the Giants running another struggling starting pitcher out to the mound.
We're not going to shy away from the fact that the Rockies have lost six games in a row. They've had some tough matchups against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, and they ran into a feasting "Shark" last night in San Francisco. This losing streak started with a Jeff Hoffman loss against the D-Backs, and it will end tonight with Hoffman back on the bump.
The Rockies have won five of Hoffman's last six starts and the young right-hander has been tremendous on the road this season. The Rox are 3-0 with "Hoff" starting on the road and he owns a 1.33 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, and a .164 opponent's on base percentage in 20.1 innings away from Coors Field.
The Giants will counter with veteran righty Matt Cain. He got off to a great start to the 2017 season and there was some talk in this column about the "return of 2012 Matt Cain" - that talk has quieted. The Giants are 1-6 in his last seven starts and over his last four outings he owns an ERA of 8.84 and a WHIP of 2.35.
Despite their tidy win over the Rockies on Monday night, let's not forget that the Giants have lost 12 of their last 14 baseball games, 10 of their last 12 games at AT&T Park, and nine of their last 10 meetings with the Rockies.
Pick: Rockies (-135)
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 74-64-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (8-5, 2.09, $-211)
Ever single time that Max Scherzer takes the ball he is likely to be regarded as the "Streaking Starter" for the day. Although the Nationals don't always win all of his starts, he just continues to lay down quality start after quality start on his way to another potential Cy Young season.
In his last outing he took an no-hitter into the eighth inning in Miami against the Marlins but lost 2-1, finishing with two hits allowed and 11 strikeouts. Over his last three starts "Mad Max" owns an ERA of 1.16 and a WHIP of 0.56...not bad.
Scherzer and the Nats are big chalk today at home against the Cubs at -175.
Slumping: Robert Gsellman, New York Mets (5-5, 6.04, $-8 )
There was a time earlier this season when Robert Gsellman was the only bright spot in a horrible Mets' starting rotation - times have changed.
In his last two starts, both losses, Gsellman has an ERA of 13.50, a WHIP of 2.68, only five strikeouts to go along with five walks, and he has allowed 6 home runs. If he doesn't turn this around quickly he'll likely see himself out of the Mets' rotation once they get another body back off the disabled list.
Gsellman and the Mets are +140 underdogs tonight in Miami against the Marlins.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* The Baltimore Orioles have allowed five or more runs in 21 of their last 22 games overall. +140 today @ Blue Jays, O's/Jays Total: 10.
* The Kansas City Royals are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter. +150 today vs. Tigers (Verlander).
* The Cincinnati Reds are 2-14 in their last 16 games overall. -125 today vs. Brewers.
* The Houston Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 meetings with the Oakland Athletics. -160 today vs. A's.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a chance of thunderstorms and about a 40-50 percent chance of rain showers in both Boston and Detroit this evening. The Tigers are entertaining the Royals while the Red Sox will welcome the Twins. Both games will get played, but they may have to deal with some wet conditions early on.
The most notable wind tonight will be a hitter's wind of 10-15 miles per hour at Fenway Park in Boston. The total for the game between the Sox and Twins is currently set at 10.5.
Ump Of The Day
Chris Segal is working the plate tonight for the game between the Texas Rangers and the Cleveland Indians and that generally means plenty of runs scored and the game going Over the closing total.
The Over has cashed in six of Segal's last eight games calling balls and strikes and teams are averaging 10.2 runs per game and 2.67 home runs per game in his nine games in pads this season.
Useless stat of the day - Over is 7-0 in the last seven Tuesday games called by Chris Segal.
The total tonight in Cleveland is currently set at 10.