Free Picks for Tuesday, June 27th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Cappers Club
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Under 7½
The Washington Nationals and the Chicago Cubs face off on Tuesday night, and with the pitching match up on the mound, the under has a ton of value.
On the mound for the Nationals is Max Scherzer who has been downright filthy all year again. In his last two starts he has gone a total of 16 innings and given up a total of six hits and three runs.
He is facing a cubs team that has a lot of big bats but they have gone cold a lot at big times this year. I expect this game will be another game where the bats are icy.
On the mound for the Cubs is Jake Arrieta who has been up and down this year, but comes into this game off a really good start. He went seven innings against the Marlins and gave up one run. He looked really good again and I think he will use that start to have confidence in this game.
Some trends to note. Under is 6-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts on grass. Under is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 on grass.
Marc Lawrence
Colorado at San Francisco
Play: Colorado -122
Edges - Rockies: Hoffman 3-0 with 1.33 ERA and 0.51 WHIP away as opposed to 8.36 ERA with 2.00 WHIP home this season, and 3-1 vs NL West this season… Giants: Cain 1-6 with 7.07 ERA and 2.01 WHIP last seven overall starts… With the Rockies 9-1 the last 10 games in this series, we recommend a 1* play in Colorado.
Jesse Schule
Phillies vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -175
Philadelphia has the worst road record in the majors, and only San Diego has scored fewer runs than the Phillies this season. Seattle has a solid 25-15 home record, and I like the M's in Game 1 of this series at Safeco.
James Paxton will toe the slab for Seattle, and he's been lights out at home. The southpaw is 4-1 with a 2.48 ERA in seven starts at Safeco in 2017. He's also 4-1 with a 3.29 ERA in nine starts under the lights.
The Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola, who is coming off one of his best starts of the season. He allowed one run on four hits, striking out eight over 7 1/3 innings in a home win over St. Louis his last time out. He hasn't had as much success on the road, and he was torched for eight runs on 13 hits and four walks over 11 innings in losses to Arizona and St. Louis in his previous two starts.
Philly has lost eight of it's last nine versus American League teams, and 10 of it's last 14 versus Seattle.
Tony Karpinski
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -148
The Toronto starting pitching is just strong enough - and their overall defense and power are actually pretty decent. Ranked 14th in the majors with 98 HRs and a middling 4.37 ERA as a team. Toronto needs to keep up their solid field play - with their best, Justin Smoak and Russell Martin.
The O's will continue to struggle all year long - they haven't been able to get their pitching on track with just a 5.10 ERA on the year. And Baltimore has been far less than stellar with a bad road record and their play has been even worse. Baltimore will be in some trouble vs a home team like the Jays.The BLUE JAYS Get the win here at home.Prediction:
Ben Burns
Angels vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 9½
JC Chavez (5-7, 5.15 ERA) continues his slide down the proverbial crapper, most recently getting rocked for five earned runs over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Yanks on Thursday, allowing seven hits and two walks (note that Chavez has been particularly inept on the road this year as well, just 2-4 with an unsightly 6.53 ERA). Kenta Maeda (5-3, 4.70) who has been transitioned back into the starting rotation out of necessity, has been decent at home this year, but note that he sports a poor 4.66 ERA in all “night” contests thus far. The Angels have already seen the total go over the number in all four games they’ve played this year as a road dog in the +175 to +200 range, while LA has seen the total fly above the posted number in 11 of 20 home games as a fav in the -175 to -200 range.
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Cardinals -115
We know all about Paul Goldschmidt & the the high scoring Arizona Diamondbacks. But Carlos Martinez has gotten the best of the D-backs in his career thus far and we expect more of the same tonight. Martinez owns a 2.86 ERA in seven appearances, including four starts against Arizona. And Martinez has been Goldschmidt's "cooler," holding him to a .200 batting average in 10 plate appearances. The Cardinal righthander owns a 2.32 ERA in his last 11 starts, going six-plus innings in each of them. Taijuan Walker has found success, but he's fallen a little too much in love with his cutter of late and we expect the Redbirds to take advantage. Combined with Martinez on the bump, we feel we have a solid spot to back the Cardinals on Tuesday.
Stephen Nover
Rays vs. Pirates
Play: Rays -101
Better team, better starting pitcher. That's what Tampa Bay has going here and the Rays opened as a 'dog.
The Rays are two games above .500 and in contention for the AL East title. The Pirates are a depressing six games under .500 and likely to be sellers at the trade deadline.
Rays starter Alex Cobb finally is healthy - and the results are looking good. Cobb is pitching his best ball going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts. He is 9-3 with a 2.79 ERA in 14 career interleague starts.
I like Cobb much better than Pirates starter Trevor Williams, who has a 5.09 ERA on the season. The converted reliever is not in good form posting a 6.60 ERA and 1.33 WHIP during his last three starts. Williams has surrendered 13 runs in his last 15 innings.
The Rays strengthened their middle infield trading for slick fielding shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, who is scheduled to join the team today. The move frees the Rays to shift Tim Beckham to second base. So the Rays upgrade their shortstop defense and gain pop at second base as Beckham is batting .278 with 10 homers and 31 RBIs.
The Pirates have lost seven of their past nine interleague games. This is Pittsburgh's first home game in eight days so its focus could be off as the players get settled back.
Dave Essler
Rangers / Indians Over 10
This may seem a bit obvious but I won't look the gift horse in the mouth. The Rangers bullpen is capable of giving up 10 runs even if Ross and Clevinger are spot-on. But, I don't think they will be. I did like Ross a couple of years ago when he was great at keeping the ball down and in the park. TBH I thought he might be headed in that direction after his first start against Seattle, but all that changed against Toronto. Clevinger can go either way, but he had a 100 pitch game in his last start - for some starters, that's the norm, but not for him. The other times this season he's had a heavy workload he hasn't been in good form the next game, and I'm betting that history repeats itself, especially against a team that is hitting right now. There are too many ways this gets there and not too many scenarios I see where it doesn't.
Big Al
Oakland vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
It seems to be all or nothing right now for the Oakland A's. They lost both games of a mini-series against the Marlins on June 13-14, then swept the Yankees over four straight at home, then were swept in four by tonight's opponent (Houston), immediately followed by a three game sweep over the White Sox in Chicago. Now they're back to playing the 'Stros again - this time in Houston - and despite last weekend's success, Oakland still has the worst road record in the American League at 12-25. After posting a 4.48 ERA last season, veteran RHP Mike Fiers has bounced back a bit in 2017, going 5-2 with a 3.81 ERA in 14 starts. He comes into tonight on a quite a roll, going 4-0 in his last five starts, while allowing just six earned runs in 31 1/3 innings (a 1.72 ERA) while striking out 21 and walking eight. That streak includes a victory against tonight's opponent last Wednesday as Fiers threw six innings, allowing one run on three hits in an easy 5-1 victory. Perhaps most importantly, after allowing 18 home runs in his first nine starts covering 46 2/3 innings, Fiers hasn't given up a single long ball in his last 31 1/3 innings. The A's are 5-21 in the last 26 games against the Astros.
Jim Feist
Mets at Marlins
Pick: Under
No DH for this NL games and Miami is a big park, great for pitchers. The Mets are 4-1 under the total on the road against a right-handed starter. Miami is #20 in baseball in runs scored, #18 in slugging, 4-1 under the total at home. Starter Dan Straily (5-4, 3.43 ERA) has quietly had a strong season with batters hitting .212 off him. He's 3-1 at home with a 2.17 ERA.
Bruce Marshall
Athletics at Astros
Play: Athletics
Oakland might seem like it would not like to face Houston after getting swept four byt he Astros last week at the Coliseum. But in their last seven games vs. teams not named the Astros, the A's have won all seven, and recovered over the weekend by sweeping the Chisox. Oakland starter Sean Manaea will have to be sharp to outpitch Houston's recently surging Mike Fiers, but Manaea usually gives the A's a chance and has a representative 3.27 ERA in a pair of starts vs. the Astros this season.
Doc's Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Tampa Bay -101
The Tampa Bay Rays will look to break their small two game losing streak when they hit the road to take on the Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA on Tuesday night. Tampa has posted a perfect 4-0 record in their last four interleague road games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have gone an excellent 9-2 in their last eleven interleague games overall. The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone just 1-4 in their last five interleague home games where they faced a right- handed starter and they have lost six of their last ten games where they faced a team from the AL East Division. Throw in the fact that the Rays have won nine of twelve versus a team from the NL Central and that the Pirates are just 4-10 in their last fourteen interleague home games versus a team with a winning % of .500 or better and we'll take the Rays at the pickem or so price to get the road win in Pittsburgh on Tuesday evening.
Teddy Davis
Rangers vs. Indians
Play: Under 10½
After last night's game with a crazy come back by the Indians in which I did have on the RL. That is most definitely playing into the line here. Ross will be making his third start of the season and I expect him to settle in now. Clevinger is 6-2 on the season favoring the under. Ross has also had great success against the Indians in three starts with a 1.89 ERA.
ASA
Athletics at Astros
Play: Athletics
Sean Manaea and Michael Fiers just matched up in Oakland and the Astros got the better of the A’s in that one on Wednesday. However, Manaea certainly didn’t pitch poorly. In fact it was a quality start for the Athletics southpaw who also recorded 8 strikeouts in his 6 innings. Manaea has been a hard luck loser at times this season because he definitely deserves better than a 3-3 record on the road when you consider that he has a 0.99 WHIP in his 6 starts away from home this year! Fiers has hit a surprising hot streak for the Astros but Manaea has a 2.23 ERA in the 6 starts he has made versus the Astros in his career. Though Fiers had a strong start at Oakland last week, his two prior starts versus the A’s resulted in 13 hits given up in 8 and 2 / 3 innings. The A’s are seeking revenge for a home sweep at the hands of the Astros last week. Oakland has won 4 straight prior to that sweep and they’ve won 3 straight since the sweep. Road dog value available in this one.