MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 29th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cubs @ Nationals
Lester is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Cubs are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8-2

Ross is 2-1, 3.76 in his last four starts (over 7-3). Washington is 5-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-3

Cubs are 6-15 in their last 21 road games; under is 10-2 in their last 12 games. Washington is 5-3 in its last eight games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.

Mets @ Marlins
Lugo is 2-1, 4.19 in three starts (over 2-1); Mets’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Urena is 3-0, 2.35 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 win his last seven. Miami is 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-2-1

Mets won four of their last five games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 games. Miami is 10-4 in last 14 home games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games.

Brewers @ Reds
Nelson is 1-1, 4.12 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Brewers are 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-9-1

Bailey allowed eight runs in 1.2 IP in his first ’17 start- Reds’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Milwaukee lost four of last five games; six of last seven Brewer games stayed under the total. Reds lost 14 of last 18 games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
Lynn is 0-2, 12.19 in his last two starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11. St Louis lost his last five road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1

Corbin is 2-3, 6.91 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Arizona is 6-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-8-2

St Louis won three of last four games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Arizona is 16-4 in its last 20 games; over is 8-5 in their last 13 home games.

Braves @ Padres
Garcia is 0-2, 6.20 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Atlanta is 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6-3

Lamet is 2-2, 7.50 in six starts this year, last four of which went over. Padres’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-4

Braves won eight of last 11 games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. San Diego won six of last eight home games; over is 3-1 in their last four games.

American League

Orioles @ Blue Jays
Jimenez is 1-2, 10.80 in his last four starts (over 8-1-1). Orioles are 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-6-1

Happ is 2-0, 1.86 in his last three starts (under 4-3-1). Toronto split her four home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-5

Orioles won three of their last four games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Toronto is 6-8 in its last 14 games; under is 4-1 in their last five games.

Twins @ Red Sox
Gibson is 1-1, 5.40 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Twins won his last five road starts- Twins’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1

Price is 1-2, 6.14 in his last four starts (under 3-2-1). Boston’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3

Twins won six of last nine games; under is 13-6-1 in their last 20 games. Red Sox are 12-5 in their last 17 home games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Royals @ Tigers
Junis is 1-1, 6.26 in five starts this year (over 3-1-1). Royals’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Fulmer is 1-5, 4.05 in his last six starts (under 4-2). Tigers are 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-1

Royals are 12-4 in last 16 games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 road games. Detroit lost nine of last 11 games; five of their last seven games went over.

Rangers @ Indians
Cashner is 1-2, 5.29 in his last three starts; Rangers are 2-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-4-3

Kluber is 3-0, 1.80 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Indians are 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6

Rangers are 9-4 in last 13 road games; under is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Cleveland lost four of last six games; seven of last eight Indian games stayed under the total.

A’s @ Astros
Cotton is 2-0, 2.38 in his last two starts; under is 3-1-2 in his last six. Oakland is 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him:

Peacock is 2-2, 3.81 in six starts this year (under 4-2). Astros’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-2

A’s are 8-5 in last 13 games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games. Houston won seven of last nine games; over is 5-1 in their last six games.

New York @ White Sox
Cessa is 0-2, 7.00 in two starts this year (under 2-0). New York’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-2

Shields is 0-1, 9.35 in his last two starts (over 3-2). Chicago’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2-1

New York lost 11 of last 15 games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 games. Chicago lost eight of last ten games; five of their last eight games stayed under the total.

Interleague

Rays @ Pirates
Archer is 1-2, 4.68 in his last four starts (over 10-6). Tampa Bay is 4-3 in their road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-2-5

Taillon is 1-2, 5.14 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Pirates are 1-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3-3

Rays lost three of last four games; seven of last nine Tampa Bay games went over the total. Pittsburgh lost four of last six home games; under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

Dodgers @ Angels
Kershaw is 4-0, 3.08 in his last four starts; under is 4-3 in his road starts. Dodgers won his last six road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 11-2-3

Ramirez is 2-2, 6.84 in his last five starts (under 9-5). Angels are 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-4

Angels won four of last five games; their last five games stayed under. Dodgers won 11 of their last 13 games; five of last six LA games stayed under.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Chi-Wsh: Lester 9-7; Ross 7-3
NY-Mia: Lugo 2-1; Urena 7-3
Mil-Cin: Nelson 7-8; Bailey 0-1
StL-Az: Lynn 6-9; Corbin 8-7
Atl-SD: Garcia 7-7; Lamet 4-2

American League
Balt-Tor: Jimenez 6-4; Happ 3-5
Minn-Bos: Gibson 7-6; Price 3-3
KC-Det: Junis 4-1; Fulmer 7-7
Tex-Clev: Cashner 5-7; Kluber 7-4
A’s-Hst: Cotton 5-8; Peacock 4-2
NY-Chi: Cessa 0-2; Shields 2-3

Interleague
TB-Pitt: Archer 9-7; Taillon 4-5
LA-LAA: Kershaw 14-2; Ramirez 9-5

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Chi-Wsh: Lester 7-16; Ross 4-10
NY-Mia: Lugo 2-3; Urena 1-10
Mil-Cin: Nelson 3-15; Bailey 1-1
StL-Az: Lynn 6-15; Corbin 9-15
Atl-SD: Garcia 3-14; Lamet 2-6

American League
Balt-Tor: Jimenez 4-10; Happ 2-8
Minn-Bos: Gibson 3-13; Price 2-6
KC-Det: Junis 1-5; Fulmer 4-14
Tex-Clev: Cashner 4-12; Kluber 2-11
A’s-Hst: Cotton 5-13; Peacock 1-6
NY-Chi: Cessa 1-2; Shields 2-5

Interleague
TB-Pitt: Archer 4-16; Taillon 2-9
LA-LAA: Kershaw 4-16; Ramirez 9-14

Umpires

National League
Chi-Wsh: Under is 5-0-1 in last six Fairchild games.
NY-Mia: Under is 7-1-1 in Blakney games this season.
Mil-Cin: Three of last four Culbreth games stayed under.
StL-Az: Over is 5-3-1 in last nine Holbrook games.
Atl-SD: Five of last six Reynolds games went over.

American League
Balt-Tor: Home team is 12-0 in Whitson games this year.
Minn-Bos: This is only 2nd MLB game behind plate for Additon
KC-Det: Six of last eight Iassogna games went over.
Tex-Clev: Under is 5-3-1 in last nine Drake games.
A’s-Hst: Over is 8-2 in last ten Cederstrom games.
NY-Chi: This is only 2nd MLB game behind plate for Lidka

Interleague

TB-Pitt: Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Emmel games.
LA-LAA: Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Woodring games.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 41-24 AL, favorites -$247
AL @ NL– 40-39 AL, favorites -$892
Total: 79-58 AL, favorites -$1,139

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 41-27-2
AL @ NL: Over 43-31-2
Total: Over 84-58-4

Armadillosports.com

Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Diamondbacks (7-3 last 10) vs. Cardinals

No one playing on Thursday owns a winning streak longer than two games as we’ll roll out the red carpet for Arizona in this category. In spite of a 4-3 setback to St. Louis on Wednesday, the D-backs have won 16 of their last 20 games, while not dropping consecutive contests at Chase Field since mid-May against the Pirates. Arizona tries to improve on a 12-3 mark in its past 15 home games, as the D-backs prepare for a crucial series with the struggling Rockies this weekend in Phoenix.

Back to today’s action, where left-hander Patrick Corbin attempts to grab the series victory for the Snakes. Corbin is fresh off a quality outing against the Phillies, but fell as a -175 favorite in a 6-1 defeat as Philadelphia plated four runs in the final inning. This season, Arizona has won seven of Corbin’s nine starts at Chase Field, but he did allow seven earned runs in an 11-4 home loss to the Cardinals last season.

Coldest team: White Sox (2-8 last 10) vs. Yankees

Things are quickly turning sour on the South Side as the Sox fell to 1-5 on their current homestand following a 12-3 defeat to the Yankees on Wednesday. Chicago is listed in the home underdog role for the 17th straight time as the Sox own a 7-9 record in this span.

James Shields heads to the mound in the series finale for Chicago, coming off his worst start of the season after being touched up for three home runs and six earned runs in three innings of a 10-2 rout at the hands of Oakland last Saturday. Shields beat the Yankees last July 4 as a home underdog, 8-2, while yielding two earned runs and five hits in six innings of work.

Hottest pitcher: Jose Urena, Marlins (6-2, 3.33 ERA)

The Mets blanked the Marlins last night, 8-0, but Miami sends out the right-hander Urena in the rubber match. Miami has won six of Urena’s last seven starts, including a 2-0 home underdog victory over the defending champion Cubs last Friday. Urena is unbeaten in his past four starts at Marlins Park, while allowing a total of three earned runs in his past three outings combined. When Urena faced the Mets back in May at Citi Field, the native of the Dominican Republic yielded one hit in six scoreless innings of a 7-0 shutout.

Coldest pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez, Orioles (2-3, 7.26 ERA)

Remember 2010? Jimenez, then a member of the Rockies, compiled a 15-1 record in the first half of the season. Since that magical season, Jimenez has reached the 10-win mark only three times, while posting a 28-34 record the last four seasons with the Orioles. Jimenez’s most recent start was one to forget by allowing nine earned runs in less than three innings of work in a 15-5 drubbing at Tampa Bay, his third straight road loss. Jimenez takes the mound in the finale against Toronto as he shut down the Blue Jays last September by tossing 6.2 scoreless innings of one-hit ball in a 4-0 victory.

Biggest OVER run: Cardinals (11-4 last 15)

St. Louis finishes off its brief three-game road trip in Arizona this afternoon before heading back to Busch Stadium for the next 10 games. The Cardinals had their four-game OVER streak snapped in Wednesday’s 4-3 victory over the D-backs, one night after blowing a late 5-2 lead in a 6-5 defeat in extra innings. The Redbirds have seen the OVER hit in seven of the past 11 games away from home, but the UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five road contests against left-handed starting pitchers.

Biggest UNDER run: Braves (5-2-1 last eight)

Following a 3-0 shutout of San Diego on Tuesday, Atlanta’s pitching took a step back on Wednesday in a 7-4 defeat to the Padres. Bartolo Colon was torched once again as the burly veteran allowed six earned runs in four innings of work, while his ERA ballooned to 8.14. Left-hander Jaime Garcia takes the mound in today’s finale at Petco Park, coming off two rough efforts at home in one-run wins over the Marlins and Giants. Garcia yielded six earned runs in each of those two starts, but has been much better on the road recently by not giving up an earned run in his past two outings away from SunTrust Park.

Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Angels

The Halos have put together a pretty solid turnaround in spite of playing without two-time MVP Mike Trout. Since the center fielder broke his thumb at Miami in late May, the Angels have not lost more than two games in a row, while improving to 10-1 off a defeat after edging the Dodgers on Wednesday, 3-2. The Angels go for the series victory against the rival Dodgers this evening, but the task won’t be easy.

Clayton Kershaw heads to the hill in Anaheim as a -200 road favorite as the Dodgers’ ace is unbeaten in his previous 10 starts. Since losing at Colorado in early April, Los Angeles owns a perfect 6-0 record in Kershaw’s last six outings away from Chavez Ravine, while the Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw’s four starts against the Angels since 2014.

J.C. Ramirez is looking to beat a Cy Young winner for the second straight time after the Angels’ right-hander defeated David Price and the Red Sox last Saturday. The Angels have soared in Ramirez’s last six starts as an underdog by posting a 5-1 record, including home ‘dog wins over the Astros and Yankees. In the each of the last six home games against left-handed starting pitchers, the Angels have failed to score more than three runs.

Betcha didn’t know: The Brewers step up late as Milwaukee has put together a solid 7-2 record in its previous nine series finales. Milwaukee looks to avoid the sweep tonight against Cincinnati as the Brew Crew has not been swept away from Miller Park this season.

Biggest public favorite: Indians (-270) vs. Rangers

Biggest public underdog: Mets (+120) at Marlins

Biggest line move: Cardinals (+125 to +110) at Diamondbacks

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

St. Louis at Arizona (-120); Total: 10

Today is already a weird day. We’re seeing money come in against Corey Kluber, which has to do with Cleveland’s bullpen usage more than anything else, but that is a surprising development given how outstanding he has been since returning from the DL. We also have money on Lance Lynn in this game. Lynn has been a victim of a lack of confidence in the betting market for a while, but that isn’t strong enough to get the market to back Patrick Corbin as a -135 favorite.

As a result, we’ve seen this number drop as much as 20 cents at the CRIS books. We’ve actually seen a few pitchers with low ERAs and high xFIPs take on money lately, which is a rarity. It leads me to believe that the markets picked up on some of these trends and made some adjustments. Of course, Lynn also took a huge step towards his regression by allowing seven runs his last time out. He now has a 3.86 ERA with a 5.54 FIP and a 4.63 xFIP. That marks the second straight start in which Lynn has allowed seven runs. Entering his June 18 start against Baltimore, Lynn had a 2.69 ERA with a 4.75 FIP and a 4.41 xFIP. This illustrates why we make bets and why lines move based on the ERA/xFIP discrepancy. Sometimes it isn’t as obvious or glorious as allowing 14 runs over two starts, but those guys are very likely to regress. Betting on potential regression removes some of the variance. That happened here.

Lynn’s profile is an interesting one, with a .219 BABIP against because 18 of the batted balls he has allowed have left the ballpark. He has only allowed 47 hits on balls in play over 84 innings. If he wasn’t a guy that has outpitched his xFIP throughout his career, I’d easily be against him here. That’s a very low number. His K and BB rates are in line with his career marks for the most part, but that 20.5 percent HR/FB% isn’t. You could argue that Lynn should see some positive regression in that metric, though it’s pretty clear that his command profile isn’t the same post-Tommy John. Command is always last to come back. Velocity comes back. Control generally comes back. But, after a year off, getting a feel for the entire arsenal takes time. A high HR/FB% isn’t a great sign going into Chase Field.

There isn’t a lot of faith in Patrick Corbin in the business community. Corbin has no command. Like Lynn, he has a high HR/FB% of 17.2 percent. Unlike Lynn, his ground ball-centric profile has led to a .336 BABIP against. Corbin has given up 106 hits in his 84.2 innings of work, including 15 HR. Interestingly, we’re seeing a 20-cent move against Corbin, despite a 4.89 ERA and a 4.16 xFIP. I can’t fault the market for not being interested in laying -135, an implied probability of 57.45 percent, on Corbin given how he’s pitched this season.

I’m not going to be invested in this one, but seeing reverse line movement per ERA/xFIP is always noteworthy.

Chicago (NL) at Washington (-115); Total: 9

Like the Indians, a World Series hangover has hit the Chicago Cubs. Unlike the Indians, they have a title to fall back on. But, the similarities between these two teams are pretty interesting, particularly the fact that both teams have an ocean-sized margin for error in their respective divisions. Milwaukee can’t run away with the NL Central and the Indians have been awful in a lot of respects and still lead the AL Central.

The Cubs were in the news for the wrong reasons again this week when Miguel Montero was DFA’d for throwing teammate Jake Arrieta under the bus about Washington running wild on the Cubs. The bigger issue for the Cubs is that Kris Bryant stepped awkwardly on third base while fielding a pop up and that eliminates a top-five player from the Chicago lineup. As a result, we’ve seen a line move in this one. The Cubs have good depth, but there’s no way to replace Bryant.

I do think there may be value on the Cubs at this point. The one stable starter in the Cubs rotation has been Jon Lester. Lester has a 3.83 ERA with a 3.71 FIP and a 3.69 xFIP across his 96.1 innings of work. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and has average or better numbers mostly across the board. The Nationals offense has slowed down a little bit from its torrid start and Lester is a quality veteran that should have a plan of attack against this lineup.

Even without Bryant, I like the Cubs against Joe Ross. Ross has a great K/BB ratio, but his command has been non-existent. Ross has allowed a .347 BABIP and 12 home runs. Coming up through the minors, Ross had a ground ball rate that resembled his brother Tyson’s, as they basically have the same arsenal. Well, Ross got to the bigs last season and posted a 42.6 percent GB%. Now, it’s just 37.1 percent. We’ve seen a cerebral pitcher like Brandon McCarthy actively go back to being a ground ball pitcher to mitigate the impact of the league-wide launch angle craze. Ross seems to be playing right into it. That’s why he has a 5.40 ERA with a 4.75 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP.

I can’t quantify this at all, but I get the feeling that the Cubs really want this game. A split against a division leader and a top World Series contender would feel like a win given some of the adversity and how this season has gone thus far. My gut tells me that the Cubs will rally without Bryant. They lived a privileged life last season, with arguably the best team defense we have ever seen, one of the healthiest rotations in modern history, and the fact that the Indians were missing two of their three best starters in the World Series. That’s not to diminish how good the Cubs were or the talent that they have, but things are going differently this season.

I may have a Cubs ticket, but I may wait until Kris Bryant is officially announced out, just to see another reactionary movement hit the board.

Tampa Bay (-120) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8

The Rays are a team that I can’t seem to get a feel for this season. I know that they’re a pretty good team and I know that they appear to be an underachiever per some of the alternative standings metrics, but they can’t seem to string together any sort of streak to normalize those numbers. Ace Chris Archer takes the hill tonight, so the Rays are a road favorite against the Pirates, as Jameson Taillon goes for the host team.

Archer has been very Archer-like this season. A mild bit of positive regression in his ERA would be really nice and also seems pretty likely as we go forward. Archer has a 3.88 ERA with a 2.88 FIP and a 3.42 xFIP. He’s cut way back on the home runs this season and is posting his best HR/FB% since 2014. The thing hurting Archer the most right now is a 70.2 percent LOB%, which is about 2.4 percent below his career mark. What’s also weird is that Archer has a .318 BABIP against, despite a five percent drop in GB%. Fewer fly balls go for hits than ground balls.

Basically, what I’m saying is that Archer should get even better. He hasn’t posted a BABIP against above .296 in his MLB career and has actually been remarkably consistent in that area with a .292 career mark and just about all of his seasons between .290 and .296. I’m definitely looking for some good things for Archer in his next few starts before the Break and would look to back him after as well if that regression doesn’t come sooner.

It looks like Taillon is back. After missing a few weeks while getting treated for testicular cancer, Taillon worked six excellent innings against the Cardinals last time out. He’s got a 3.33 ERA with a 3.78 FIP and a 3.77 xFIP. His walk rate is a little bit higher than we would expect, but his command continues to be average or better. His raw arsenal is quite good and he’s been able to parlay that into quick MLB success. He missed all of 2014 and 2015 due to injuries, so I probably would have had workload concerns heading into the All-Star Break if he was around 95 or 100 innings like other pitchers, but he’s not due to the unfortunate cancer diagnosis.

I like both of these guys. Taillon doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, so he should be a good matchup against the Rays. At risk of burning through money by taking an under 8, that’s my play in this spot today. I’d also look at the Rays because of that positive regression coming for Archer against a lineup that hasn’t seen much of him.

Milwaukee (-115) at Cincinnati; Total: 10

The Brewers will send Jimmy Nelson to the hill in search of some innings. Chase Anderson left with an oblique injury last night for the Brewers and the bullpen, which has gotten heavy usage throughout the season, was forced into action early once again. The Reds will counter with Homer Bailey, who was decimated in his first start back from a myriad of injuries.

I understand that the market has been wary of Milwaukee for a while, and I can’t blame them for that, but you’re not going to find very many takers for Bailey today. I’m a little surprised to see this number where it is, since I do think that this price is a little bit low. Nelson has a 3.50 ERA with a 3.19 FIP and a 3.49 xFIP over 90 innings. He’s averaged exactly six innings per start and has made some enormous strides across the board. He has struck out over a batter per inning, has cut his walk rate down by 4.4 percent and has traded home runs for balls in play. A .341 BABIP against is a bit concerning, but the fact that Nelson has a 3.50 ERA with that BABIP is a testament to how well he has pitched in those key situations. That balloon may burst at some point, but Nelson has shown decent fastball command and good curveball command. That’s what it takes nowadays. Average or above fastball command and a plus secondary. Not enough pitchers have that. Nelson seems to have spent a lot of time fixing his fastball command, which makes sense for an analytics-based front office able to dig deeper into data.

Homer Bailey’s return to the big leagues lasted five outs. When it was all said and done, Bailey had allowed eight runs on six hits with three walks and a couple of strikeouts against the Nationals. The Brewers lineup hasn’t been able to keep pace lately, so that could give Bailey a break, but three rehab starts in the minors didn’t seem to tell us a whole lot. Bailey basically hasn’t pitched since 2014 when he worked 145.2 innings. He had 11.1 innings at the MLB level in 2015 and 23 in 2016. It’s going to take a lot of time for him to get into a rhythm. At least Bailey’s velocity looked good if the command didn’t.

I have to look at the Brewers here. I’m concerned about the state of the bullpen, but far less concerned about that than I am about Homer Bailey.

New York at Miami (-130); Total: 9.5

The market seems a little bit unsure what to do about the Seth Lugo vs. Jose Urena matchup on Thursday night. We’ve seen the desire to back the Marlins so strong that Urena has even gotten support in the betting market. That doesn’t appear to be the case today and some money has sprinkled in against the Fish.

Lugo only has 19.1 innings across three starts under his belt at the MLB level this season. The Mets seem to have at least two or three starters hurt every season and Lugo got lumped in with that group early. He’s got a 3.72 ERA with a 4.38 FIP and a 4.98 xFIP on the year, but it’s a small sample size. He made eight starts and nine relief appearances last season with a 2.67 ERA, a 4.33 FIP, and a 4.71 xFIP last season. The advanced metrics aren’t keen on his low strikeout rate or average or higher walk rate, but he gets a lot of weak contact and doesn’t allow a ton of home runs, so that skill set can play and can overachieve a little. We’ll have to see how he fares in this start, but my guess is that he’ll be useful.

Jose Urena looks like a regression candidate with his 3.33 ERA, 5.04 FIP, and 5.57 xFIP. Like Lugo, Urena allows a lot of balls in play. This season, his BABIP is down 52 points from last season. Last year, he had a 6.13 ERA. This season, with that BABIP gain and a LOB% of 81.5 percent, up from last year’s 60.6 percent, he’s been able to enjoy a reversal of fortunes in the luck metrics. I’m not sure how long that is sustainable.

This game is going to feature a lot of balls in play. Games like that are often dictated by variance. The Marlins have a better bullpen and a better defense, so this line feels fair. I won’t be invested.

New York (-145) at Chicago; Total: 10.5

The Yankees got exactly what they needed on Wednesday. A patchwork lineup hung a 12-spot to help Masahiro Tanaka and give the bullpen a much needed day off. With a fresher bullpen, the market seems content to fade James Shields and the White Sox again today. We’ve actually seen White Sox money in this series thus far, but that trend appears to be stopping today.

Fading James Shields makes a lot of sense. Doing it with Luis Cessa on the mound and some of the problems with the Yankees lineup makes it a bit of a tough sell. I won’t be involved here, but reader mg86 pointed out that I wasn’t appreciating the gravity of yesterday’s situation for the Yankees as much as I should have been. They also haven’t played well of late for other reasons, so perhaps I do need to reevaluate my stance on the Yankees.

Atlanta at San Diego (-115); Total: 8.5

Another day with movement on the San Diego Padres. That has been happening a lot lately. As I’ve discussed, the Braves are playing away from home for just the second time since June 4. They’re also way out on the west coast. Tonight’s game features veteran southpaw Jaime Garcia against rookie right-hander Dinelson Lamet. When Garcia was drafted by the Cardinals, Lamet was approaching his 13th birthday. Had Lamet pitched last night, he would have faced Bartolo Colon, who made his MLB debut when Lamet was four years old.

Anyway, Garcia has a 4.03 ERA with a 4.39 FIP and a 4.34 xFIP. Garcia’s walk rate is up this season and his K rate is down. Fortunately for him, his BABIP is down as well, so he’s still been able to be somewhere around league average. That hasn’t been the case over his last two starts with 12 runs allowed on 14 hits across 10 innings of work. We’ll see if he can right the ship against a pretty pedestrian Padres lineup.

Lamet is a very hard guy to handicap. He clearly has the stuff to pitch well against any lineup, but he also has no semblance of command. Lamet has 42 K in 30 innings of work, but he’s also allowed 25 runs on 26 hits, including eight home runs. Small sample alerts here, but lefties are batting .322/.385/.763 off of him and righties are hitting just .119/.200/.271. Fourteen of the 19 hits for lefties have been extra-base hits. Braves left-handed hitters against right-handed pitchers rank 15th in wOBA and a lot of that has to do with Freddie Freeman.

I’ll tentatively back the Padres here. I also like their bullpen and think that it is an underrated commodity. That has a lot to do with why the Padres have been taking on money of late.

Orioles, Blue Jays meet
By: StatFox.com

The Orioles will be going for their fourth win in five games when they face the Blue Jays on Thursday.

Baltimore has been extremely inconsistent lately, but the team has won three of its past four games and can certainly still find a way to make it to the postseason. The Orioles have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, but they need their bats to be going at the same time. Toronto has also played some solid baseball lately, winning two of its past three coming into this one. The Jays beat this Orioles team 4-0 on Wednesday night, and they’ll be hoping for yet another good performance on the mound here. The two guys that will be hoping to outduel one another on the mound are RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (2-3, 7.26 ERA, 54 K) for the Orioles and LHP J.A. Happ (2-4, 3.83 ERA, 49 K) for the Jays. One trend that favors the Orioles in this game is the fact that Toronto is 7-13 against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw three or less walks per game on the season. Baltimore is, however, a miserable 1-14 against the money line against AL starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.200 or better this season.

The Orioles are playing very well at the moment, and they are hoping to keep it up on Thursday. A win would get them back to the .500 mark and it’d also put them a few more games up on the Jays. Baltimore will, however, have Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound here. The reason that didn’t sound too promising is that Jimenez allowed nine earned runs in 2.1 innings of work against the Rays in his most recent start. He is one of the most inconsistent starters in baseball, and the Orioles are not going to win if he doesn’t pitch a solid game here. Being that Jimenez is on the mound, Baltimore’s offense better come ready to score a bunch of runs on Thursday. That means that guys like OF Mark Trumbo (.255 BA, 10 HR, 37 RBI) and 3B Manny Machado (.223 BA, 15 HR, 38 RBI) will need to come through here. Both have had very disappointing seasons, but it wouldn’t be shocking if they got hot in the second half of the year.

As for the Blue Jays, J.A. Happ is going to be on the mound in this game. Happ is coming off of a brilliant start against the Royals on Jun. 23, as the lefty allowed just one earned run in 6.2 innings of work. He struck out five batters in that game and did not issue a single walk. Happ has, however, struggled against the Orioles this season, allowing four earned runs in only 11.1 innings of work. The Jays can really use a longer outing out of him in this one. On offense, the Blue Jays can use some production from both 3B Josh Donaldson (.265 BA, 8 HR, 20 RBI) and OF Jose Bautista (.238 BA, 14 HR, 37 RBI). Both guys are capable of going yard on any given night, and it’d definitely be big if they did it here.

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Double-Play Picks

New York Mets at Miami Marlins (-130, 9.5)

The Mets and the Marlins tangle Thursday in the rubber match of their three-game series in Miami. The Marlins took the opener on a solid performance by Dan Straily (and an abbreviated outing for Robert Gsellman) but the Mets rode a Steven Matz gem last night to even the series with an 8-0 victory.

The Mets will send young right-hander Seth Lugo to the mound today. Lugo is still easing his way back after suffering a partially torn UCL in his pitching elbow during spring training. He's been decent in his three starts since returning to the Mets' rotation with a 3.72 ERA and a WHIP of 1.40. He hasn't been missing many bats with only 13 strikeouts to go along with seven walks over 19.1 innings pitched.

Lugo will have to be better than decent today against the streaking Jose Urena. The Marlins' righty is 6-2 on the season and over his last three starts he has been simply electric. In 18 innings of work he owns a 1.50 ERA, a .094 WHIP, and a very tidy opponent's on base percentage of .288.

The Marlins have won six of Urena's last seven starts and in his previous start against the Mets this season he tossed six innings of one-hit shutout baseball in an eventual 7-0 Marlins victory.

The Marlins are 13-3 in their last 16 home games versus a right-handed starting pitcher and they have also won four of the last five meetings between the two teams in Miami.

Pick: Marlins -130

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-105, 10)

We are almost three months into the Major League season and, surprisingly enough, the Brewers are still atop the National League Central standings. That may have something to do with the Cubs complacency this season, but that’s where we stand.

However, the Brewers have dropped the first two games of a three-game set in Cincinnati against the basement dwelling Reds and will look to salvage the final game and maintain their one-game lead over the Cubbies with a win Thursday.

The Brewers offense has tailed off after a red-hot start. They now rank 13th in the MLB in runs per game and are just 18th in batting average, but still rank ninth in OPS and seventh in home runs.

The Brew Crew faces off against Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey, who makes just his second start of the season after undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his right elbow. Bailey got slammed for eight runs on six hits in just 1.2 innings pitched in his season debut.

Milwaukee counters with Jimmy Nelson, who has been solid for the Brewers this season. The right-hander is 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.300 WHIP, while racking up 93 strikeouts.

Nelson has also performed well against the Reds over the last two seasons. In his last five starts against Cincinnati, Milwaukee is 4-1, while Nelson is 3-1 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.245 WHIP. That includes a meeting back on April 13th when he scattered five hits over seven innings allowing just one earned run.

Pick: Brewers -118

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 75-67-7

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (6-2, 3.24 ERA, $-2)

Corey Kluber got off to a rough start to the 2017 season and spent the majority of May on the DL with a lower back strain. Since returning June 1, the 2014 AL Cy Young winner has been dealing.

In 35 total innings he’s allowed five earned runs (1.29 ERA, .7143 WHIP), struck out 52, and walked just six.

Kluber and the Indians are a chalky -255 at home today against Andrew Cashner and the Texas Rangers.

Slumping: Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds (0-1, 43.20 ERA, $-100)

While Kluber returned from the DL like a boss and went scorched earth on the league, Homer Bailey, may have come back too quickly.

In his 2017 debut last week against the Nationals, Bailey lasted 1.2 innings and gave up eight runs (all earned) for a horrifying 43.20, 5.40 WHIP, and opponents batting average of .600.

Bailey and the Reds are -108 on the moneyline against Jimmy Nelson and the Milwaukee Brewers.

Thursday's Top Trends

* The Houston Astros are 0-6 in Brad Peacock’s last six home starts vs. a team with a losing record. -200 vs. A's.
* Home team is 13-3 in Chad Whitson’s last 16 games behind home plate. Blue Jays -200 vs. Orioles.
* Under is 7-0 in the Minnesota Twins last seven games following a win. Twins/Red Sox Total: 10.
* The New York Mets are 9-1 in Seth Lugo’s last 10 starts. +120 @ Marlins.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is a chance of thunderstorms and about a 50-60 percent chance of showers in both Detroit and Chicago today. The Tigers are hosting the Royals while the White Sox welcome the Yankees. In Detroit first pitch might get pushed until later as the forecast is more promising later in the evening. As for Chicago, rain and thunderstorms look like they will be around all night so this game might not happen tonight.

Plenty of wind across Major League Baseball today:

Rangers at Indians (Total: 9.5) - 18-20 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right-center field.
Royals at Tigers (Total: 9.5) - 16-18 mile per hour wind blowing IN from right field.
Cubs at Nationals (Total: 9.5) - 14-15 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to center field.
Twins at Red Sox (Total: 10) - 15-16 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to left-center field.
Yankees at White Sox (Total 10.5) - 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to left field.

Ump Of The Day

Gary Cederstrom will be calling balls and strikes in Houston today and he is one of MLB’s top Over umpires this season at 11-4 (73.3 percent) and nine of his last 10 games have gone Over the closing total. Oakland hitters will be particularly chipper getting to Minute Maid Park today as the Over has hit in nine of the last 11 A's games with Cederstrom behind the dish.

The total for todays A’s and Astros game is currently sitting at 9.5. In games with Cederstrom behind the plate this season with a total at nine or higher, the Over has cashed every time (6-0).

It’s also worth noting that Cederstrom also favors the home team 11-4 (73.3 percent) this season. The Astros are big -200 home chalk tonight with Brad Peacock on the mound.