Free Picks for Thursday, June 29th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
YANKEES AT WHITE SOX
PLAY: OVER 10.5
I’m expecting plenty of scoring in this series windup between the Yankees and Chisox.
The two starting pitchers are each probe to giving up the long ball, and Shields in particular an extreme fly ball pitcher. The weather forecast also comes into play as the wind conditions project to be hitter friendly. There is a chance of a thunderstorm rolling into the area, but as ling as they’re on the field, I like the offenses to own a nice advantage.
It’s a high number as it’s not like the oddsmakers don’t have the same info I do. But with two very hittable hurlers getting the start, I like the Over to get to the winner’s circle tonight.
Alex Smart
Cubs vs. Nationals
Play: Under 9
Washington has shown some explosive offensive power this season,but overall they have struggled mightily vs southpaw pitching like the Cubs starter today Lester averaging just 3.8 rpg via a team BA that rings in under the Mendoza line (.249). Meanwhile, the defending World Series Cubs have been a Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde offense, but overall have consistently struggled vs right handed starters like the Nats Joe Ross averaging just 4.2 rpg via a ugly .228 BA this season. Because of the above mentioned pitcher vs batter stats and because of both teams starting pitchers being in a groove of late, I'm betting on score that fails to eclipse the total this afternoon.
It must be noted that Lester the Cubs starter today vs the Nats has recorded three straight quality starts, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and is currently in top form. Meanwhile, Joe Ross the Nats man on the hill, has thrown two straight quality starts and is coming off one of his best turns of the year last time out.
Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 10-2 in Cubs last 12 overall.Under is 20-7 in Cubs last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in Lesters last 5 starts overall.Under is 11-4 in Cubs last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1-1 in Nationals last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.Under is 6-0 in home umpires Fairchilds last 6 games behind home plate.The Nats are 30-14 under when they are +100 dog or more.
Ben Burns
Twins vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10
Kyle Gibson (4-5, 6.23 ERA) gave up one run off four hits and four walks while striking out one over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Saturday. Gibson was a bit “lucky,” as he’d walk four batters and give up a solo shot to Jose Ramirez. Gibson is 3-1 on the road despite a poor 5.28 ERA. David Price (2-2, 4.76) is dealing with a finger issue for the Red Sox, but he’s been cleared to play tonight. Price is still trying to find his footing after major surgery and has posted a pedestrian 4.66 ERA over five starts in June (note that in his lone start against the Twins last year the southpaw was shelled for five earned runs off 11 hits over 5.2 innings.) Both pitchers have seen better days, consider the over in this matchup.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -118
Edges - Diamondbacks: Corbin 702 with 3.19 ERA home team starts as opposed to 1-5 with 8.13 ERA away team starts this season, and 4-1 day team starts this season… Cardinals: Lynn 1-5 last six overall team starts during June, and 0-4 day team starts this season… With Corbin in strong KW form with 18 Ks and 4 BBs his last three starts, look for the Cards to fall to 1-8 in Lynn’s last nine starts here this afternoon. We recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Sean Murphy
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Orioles +1½
The Orioles have no business being in this price range against the inconsistent Blue Jays, plain and simple. With that being said, I am anticipating a tightly-contested affair, so I’ll lay the minimal juice to back them on the run-line.
Toronto blanked Baltimore thanks to a couple of long balls, and more importantly a stellar effort from Marcus Stroman. I’m not sure we’ll see the same type of performance from J.A. Happ on Thursday. Happ has gone 2-4 with a 3.83 ERA this season and like the rest of his team, has been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks.
The reason the O’s find themselves in this price range is the presence of Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound. He’s posted an ERA north of seven and a WHIP well over 1.5 so far this season. With that said, he’s still only suffered three losses. The O’s bats generally come to play when he’s on the mound.
Jack Jones
Braves vs. Padres
Play: Padres -111
The San Diego Padres have been a profitable bet at home this season, where they are a solid 20-20 overall and more times than not an underdog. We're getting them at basically even money here Thursday against the Atlanta Braves.
Dinelson Lamet is one of the better prospects in the Padres' organization. He has had four great starts this year and two poor ones. But he clearly has great stuff with 42 strikeouts in 30 innings pitched over his six starts.
Jaime Garcia is 2-5 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.310 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The veteran left-hander has really struggled of late, giving up 12 earned runs and 19 base runners over 10 innings in his last two starts for a 10.80 ERA.
San Diego is 10-2 in home games after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season. The Braves are 30-61 in their last 91 during game 3 of a series. The Padres are 6-2 in their last eight home games. San Diego is 16-5 in its last 21 home meetings with Atlanta.
Mike Anthony
Los Angeles vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -213
The massive run differential should be an even bigger red flag for the Angels because that really shows off the top ranked Dodgers as the best team as per ERA in MLB. Along with their great bats at the plate. The Angels are in just enough sort of trouble here in the battle for LA. The Angels are likely to come back to earth even if their starting pitching doesn't fall apart. A lot of their offense is based on LF Cameron Maybin - and Maybin hasn't been swinging like he was back in earlier part of the month. Maybin has been hitting just .208 over the last 7 games, as of 6.26.2017. The Angels have also really had their share of issues with closing games out, as well.
Will Rogers
Yankees at White Sox
Pick: Yankees
The set-up: The Yankees opened the week in a funk, having lost 10 of their previous 12 games. However, in taking two of the first three of this four-games series in Chicago against the White Sox, New York has a chance on Thursday night to end a string of four straight series losses with a win. Aaron Judge hit his major league-leading 27th HR to cap a five-run sixth inning in Wednesday's 12-3 romp. The White Sox have managed to produce only four runs against New York's starting pitching in the series and fell to an American League-worst 10-28 when the opposition scores first. Overall, Chicago is 33-44, eight games out in the AL Central (note: Chicago currently owns the AL's worst record!).
The pitching matchup: Luis Cessa (0-2 & 6.57 ERA) will get the nod for New York, while James Shields (1-1 & 4.26 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago. Cessa made nine starts in his 19 appearances last year but made his first start of the 2017 season on June 18. He allowed four runs over four innings in a 4-3 loss at Oakland in that one and took the loss against Texas his last time out (8-1 on June 24), giving up three runs on three hits over five innings. Cessa has never started against Chicago, although he faced the White Sox in relief last year and was touched for three runs - two earned - and five hits in two innings. Shields was hammered in his second start since returning from a two-month stint on the disabled list, surrendering six runs over three-plus innings in a 10-2 home loss versus Oakland on June 24. He had worked 5 2/3 innings at Toronto on June 18, giving up three runs in his first start since coming off the DL. Shields, who had a 'nightarer' season in 2016 for first San Diego and then Chicago, had permitted just one run in each of his first three starts of 2017, before landing on the DL. Shields has suffered more losses against the Yankees (11-16) than any other team in the majors, posting a 4.12 ERA in 32 career starts (teams are 13-19).
The pick: I've always felt that "Big Game James" is nothing like his moniker and these Yankee bats are impressive. New York averages 5.64 PG (2nd), bats .269 as a team (3rd), owns an .806 OPS (3rd) and the team's 122 HRs rank 2nd. Yanks get a much-needed series win with a victory in this one.
Jim Feist
Baltimore at Toronto
Pick: Over
This is a good home run park and a pair of poor starters take the hill. Baltimore's pitching has been a big disappointment and Ubaldo Jimenez (2-3, 7.26 ERA) has been terrible, off a 15-5 loss at Tampa Bay allowing 9 runs in 2+ innings. For the season he's walked 34 batters in 65+ innings, a bad ratio. Baltimore is 20-8-1 over the total when Jimenez starts. Toronto starter J.A. Happ is 1-2 at home with a 4.58 ERA where batters hit .282 off him. And the Over is 3-1-1 in Happ's last 5 starts on astroturf.
CAJUN SPORTS
Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati -102
We will back the Reds on Thursday night in the Queen City as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the third and final game of their mid-week matchup. Make sure you join them on the diamond today for their MLB Trading Bases Best Bet Report. Cajun Sports is ranked #2 at Sports Watch Monitor for the season in MLB with a record of 86-54-1 (61.4%) for a profit of +18830 units on the season. The Reds will send Homer Bailey to the bump and the Brewers hang their hopes on Jimmy Nelson. We want to play ON MLB home teams coming off a win in which they came back from a deficit, 713-533 SU (57.2%) (+6029). Play ON MLB teams as a dog when they are off a night game win in which they came back from a deficit, 214-261 SU (+1577). We also note the Reds are 17-10 SU (63%) (+684) at home and 11-5 SU (68.8%) (+720) as a home underdog since late April. Our BbTPR Index projects a 1.19 run advantage for the Cincinnati Reds in this contest.
ROCKETMAN
Chicago vs. Washington
Play: Chicago +105
The Chicago Cubs travel to Washington to take on the Nationals on Thursday afternoon. Chicago Cubs are 39-39 SU overall this year while Washington comes in with a 47-31 SU overall record on the season. Jon Lester is 5-4 with a 3.83 ERA overall this year and 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA his last 3 starts. Joe Ross is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA overall this year. Lester is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA in his 4 career starts vs Washington. Chicago Cubs are allowing only 4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Washington is scoring only 3.8 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Washington is 13-19 this year in day games. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago Cubs today!
Jimmy Boyd
Chicago vs. Washington
Play: Chicago +104
I really like the value here with Chicago at basically a pick'em here in the series finale against the Nationals. While the Cubs have lost the last two in the series, Washington had two of their best starters going in Scherzer and Strasburg. They send out Joe Ross for the finale and he's simply getting way to much respect here going up against the Cubs ace in Jon Lester.
Washington has won 7 of Ross' 10 starts, but no thanks to him, as he's posted an awful 5.40 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in those 10 starts. It's only a matter of time before the losses start to pile up with him on the mound. Lester is a 2nd half pitcher and he comes into this one with a 2.70 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Lester also owns a 2.77 ERA in 4 career starts against the Nationals, which isn't all that suprising given Washington's struggles agaisnt left-handed starters. They average just 3.8 runs/game and are hitting .249 as a team against lefty starters this season. Compare that to the 5.7 runs/game and .278 team average they own for the entire season.
TONY KARPINSKI
Minnesota at Boston
Play: Boston -190
If Boston could hit the curveball - they would be blowing more teams out of the water. Boston is still doing good enough and they are getting their bats heavy enough to get 5-6 runs most games. The Sox had lit up Minnesota for 17 runs last time they played. The Sox face an intriguing test this game against the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins should consider moving Max Kepler toward the bottom of the order. As their young lefty hitter has not shown a lot of power with just 2 HRs when batting 4th. The Twins are hitting terrible right now with .329 OBP. Minnesota has to improve their patience and placement, 600+ Ks obviously aren't cutting it. Too many issues in this lineup.
Boston had just 1 run on 7 hits last night and I'll back the REDSOX at home on Thursday night as your comp play.
JOHN MARTIN
Twins vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10
The Boston Red Sox could easily score 10 runs on their own tonight. Kyle Gibson has been one of the worst starters in the league for the Twins. He is 4-5 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 13 starts. The Twins have actually been pretty good on the road this year, where they are scoring 4.5 runs per game. They should tack on a few against David Price, who is 2-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in six starts this season. The weather will also aid this over as the wind is expected to be blowing out to left center at 16 MPH come first pitch. The OVER is 17-6-2 in Gibson's last 25 starts. The OVER is 11-0 in Price's last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The OVER is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings.