MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 17, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Reds @ Cubs
Feldman is 0-2, 10.80 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Reds are 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-2

Lester is 0-1, 5.40 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Cubs are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-5

Reds lost five of last seven road games; 10 of their last 11 games went over total. Cubs are 6-8 in last 14 games; over is 6-3 in their last nine home games.

Braves @ Rockies
Sims is 0-3, 6.23 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Atlanta lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3

Hoffman is 0-3, 7.56 in his last five starts; his last three starts stayed under. Colorado is 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1 (2-7-1 last 10).

Braves lost seven of last nine games; over is 15-4-1 in their last 20 road games. Colorado won five of last seven home games; under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games.

Cardinals @ Pirates
Wainwright is 3-0, 3.21 in his last five starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten road starts. Cardinals are 6-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-4

Taillon is 1-0, 2.92 in his last two starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Pirates are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-3

Cardinals lost their last three games; their last nine games went over the total. St Louis is 7-12 in road series openers. Pittsburgh lost its last four games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Pirates are 9-10 in home series openers.

Nationals @ Padres
Jackson is 2-1, 2.89 in his last three starts (under 4-1). Washington split his two road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2-1

Chacin is 3-1, 3.07 in his last five starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six starts. San Diego is 8-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-3

Nationals won five of last seven games; their last six games stayed under. Washington is 13-6 in road series openers. San Diego is 8-2 in last ten home games; under is 6-2 in last eight home tilts. Padres are 12-8 in home series openers

Phillies @ Giants
Nola is 3-1, 1.64 in his last five starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight. Phillies are 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-3-6

Samardzija is 3-1, 3.62 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Giants are 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-13-4

Philly lost six of last seven games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Phils are 8-13 in road series openers. Giants lost four of last six games and their last seven home series openers. Last three Giant games went over the total.

American League

Rays @ Blue Jays
Archer is 1-1, 4.24 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Rays are 6-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-6-5

Rowley won his first MLB start, allowing one run in 5.1 IP (75 PT) to the Pirates. Jays’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Rays lost nine of last 12 games; under is 12-2 in their last 14 games. Toronto won seven of last ten home games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Indians @ Twins
Carrasco is 1-1, 4.55 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Indians are 9-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-6-1 Merritt allowed three runs in four IP (63 PT) in his only ’17 start, June 17 at Pittsburgh. Tribe’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Gibson is 1-3, 6.59 in his last five starts; under is 6-2 in his last nine. Minnesota is 4-7 in his last 11 starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-1 Berrios is 0-2, 7.45 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Minnesota is 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-2

Indians won their last five games; under is 6-0-2 in their last eight games. Minnesota won seven of its last nine games (over 4-1-4).

White Sox @ Rangers
Lopez allowed two runs in six IP (102 PT) in his first ’17 start, vs KC. Chicago’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Ross is 1-1, 12.08 in his last three starts (over 5-2-1). Texas is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1

White Sox lost their last five games; under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Chicago is 6-14 in road series openers. Texas won six of last seven games; over is 3-2-1 in their last six games. Rangers are 11-9 in home series openers.

Interleague

Bronx @ Mets
Severino allowed 10 runs in 4.1 IP last start, after a 4-0, 1.40 run before that; his last four starts went over. Bronx is 6-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-3

Matz is 0-5, 9.51 in his last seven starts, last three of which stayed under. Mets are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-8-1

Mets lost four of last five games; under is 7-5-1 in their last 13 games. Bronx is 7-4 in its last 11 games; under is 13-6 in their last 19 games.

Diamondbacks @ Astros
Corbin is 1-2, 8.04 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Arizona is 2-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-4

Fiers is 0-3, 8.85 in his last four starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five. Houston is 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-3

Astros lost six of last nine games; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight games. Arizona lost six of last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Cin-Cubs: Feldman 8-12; Lester 14-11
Atl-Colo: Sims 0-3; Hoffman 8-7
StL-Pitt: Wainwright 14-8 ; Taillon 9-8
Wsh-SD: Jackson 3-2; Chacin 13-11
Phil-SF: Nola 10-9; Samardzija 10-14

American League
TB-Tor: Archer 13-12; Rowley 1-0
Clev-Minn: Carrasco 16-7 Merritt 1-0; Gibson 10-10 Berrios 10-7
Chi-Tex: Lopez 1-0; Ross 5-3

Interleague
NY-NY Severino 13-10; Matz 3-9
Az-Hst: Corbin 11-13; Fiers 5-1

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Cin-Cubs: Feldman 5-20; Lester 9-25
Atl-Colo: Sims 2-3; Hoffman 6-15
StL-Pitt: Wainwright 5-22; Taillon 4-17
Wsh-SD: Jackson 3-5; Chacin 10-24
Phil-SF: Nola 4-19; Samardzija 11-24

American League
TB-Tor: Archer 6-25; Rowley 0-1
Clev-Minn: Carrasco 16-7 Merritt 0-1; Gibson 10-10 Berrios 5-17
Chi-Tex: Lopez 0-1; Ross 4-8

Interleague
NY-NY Severino 5-23; Matz 5-12
Az-Hst: Corbin 12-24; Fiers 1-6

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 69-49 AL, favorites +$427
AL @ NL– 64-59 NL, favorites -$154
Total: 128-113 AL, favorites +$273

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 60-57-3
AL @ NL: Over 64-53-7
Total: Over 124-110-10

Armadillosports.com

Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Indians (5-0 last five) vs. Twins

Cleveland didn’t get an opportunity to extend its winning streak to six on Wednesday thanks to a rainout. So the Tribe will face the Twins for a pair of games on Thursday at Target Field as Cleveland tries to boost its lead over Kansas City atop the AL Central. The Indians are not only the lone team inside the division with a positive run differential, but going into Thursday’s action, that number is a whopping +115, which ranks second in the AL behind Houston.

The defending AL champs have won all eight meetings with Minnesota at Target Field as Carlos Carrasco takes the mound in the matinee contest. Carrasco dominated the Rays in his last start by striking out 10 batters in eight innings of a 5-0 shutout, while beating the Twins earlier this season in Minneapolis, 8-1. Southpaw Ryan Merritt will make his second start of the season as he goes in the nightcap, as he tossed four innings in a 9-3 rout of Minnesota in June.

Coldest team: Diamondbacks (3-8 last 11) vs. Astros

Arizona is still in prime position to capture a Wild Card berth in the National League. However, the D-backs have struggled of late against elite competition by losing six of nine games to the Dodgers, Cubs, and Astros, including Wednesday’s loss at Houston. The question is if Arizona can turn around its road woes by going 7-13 in its past 20 away contests with upcoming series against the Twins and Mets.

Patrick Corbin has been fade material away from Chase Field this season as the D-backs own a dreadful 2-9 record in his 11 road starts with the only two wins coming at Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Dating back to last season, Arizona has won just two of his past 13 outings in the role of a road underdog.

Hottest pitcher: Aaron Nola, Phillies (9-7, 3.02 ERA)

Philadelphia heads to San Francisco for a four-game series after getting swept at San Diego. Nola continues to be the bright spot on the mound in a dim season for the Phillies as he has delivered 10 consecutive quality starts. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each outing during this stretch, while the Phillies are 4-1 in his past five starts. The last time Nola faced the Giants in June of 2016, he was knocked around for 10 hits and five earned runs in 3.1 innings of an 8-7 defeat.

Coldest pitcher: Lucas Sims, Braves (0-3, 5.71 ERA)

The Georgia native is seeking his first victory as he is winless through three Major League starts. Unfortunately, the numbers are going in the wrong direction since allowing three earned runs in six innings against the red-hot Dodgers on August 1 as Sims gave up four runs to Miami and five runs at St. Louis. The Braves are closing out a seven-game road trip at Colorado as Atlanta owns a 2-5 record in its past seven away series finales.

Best OVER run: Cardinals (9-1 last ten)

St. Louis saw its nine-game OVER streak come to an end in Wednesday’s late meltdown loss at Boston, 5-4. The game barely finished UNDER the total of 9 ½ as the Red Sox scored three runs in the ninth inning to hand the Cardinals their third straight loss. In seven games during its recent eight-game winning streak, the Cards plated at least six runs, but have been limited to four runs or fewer in the last three losses.

Best UNDER run: Rockies (7-2 last nine)

Colorado’s offense finally busted out its funk by scoring 17 runs in a blowout of Atlanta. How bad were the Rockies’ bats prior to Wednesday’s explosion? The Rockies were limited to three runs or fewer in eight consecutive games, while the pitching staff allowed four runs or more five times. Right-hander Jeff Hoffman takes the mound for the Rockies against the Braves as he has finished UNDER the total in three straight starts, while the UNDER has cashed in four of his past five outings at Coors Field.

Matchup to watch: Cardinals vs. Pirates

Pittsburgh is trending in the wrong direction since a 5-1 run earlier in the month. The Pirates dropped their fourth straight game on Wednesday, blowing a 4-0 lead in a stunning 7-6 setback at Milwaukee. The Bucs allowed seven runs for the third time in the last four defeats, while falling to 4-11 in the past 15 road contests. Pittsburgh returns home to battle St. Louis to begin a tough homestand that includes Los Angeles next week coming to PNC Park.

Jameson Taillon rebounded from a pair of brutal starts against the Giants and Reds in which he was tagged for 17 earned runs by yielding only four earned runs in outings against the Padres and Blue Jays (2-0). The Pittsburgh right-hander has been up and down at home this season, while losing to the Cardinals, 4-0 as a -125 favorite in mid-July.

Adam Wainwright counters for the Cardinals as St. Louis has won six of the right-hander’s past seven starts. Wainwright was a disaster on the road to begin the season, but the Redbirds are 3-1 in his last four away assignments since getting lit up for nine earned runs in less than two innings of a 15-7 loss at Baltimore in June. St. Louis has slipped recently following an eight-game hot streak by losing three in a row, while dropping their previous two series to the Pirates.

Betcha didn’t know: The Yankees have taken care of their cross-city rivals in the first three games of the Subway Series. The Bronx Bombers are seeking their first sweep of the Mets since June 2012, while the Mets have won at least one game in the four-game interleague set with the Yankees in each of the last three tries (2013, 2014, 2016).

Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-215) vs. Reds

Biggest public underdog: Nationals (+105) at Padres

Biggest line move: Pirates (-115 to -135) vs. Cardinals

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: San Francisco Giants -115

The Giants and the Phillies are going to be playing in San Francisco with Jeff Samardzija and Aaron Nola starting. The Phillies and the Giants are two of the worst teams in the MLB, but both Nola and Samardzija have been pleasant surprises for both of their teams. I think both teams have a good chance to make the playoffs in two seasons, but they are both in the midst of rebooting.

Aaron Nola has been the best player on the Phillies roster this season. The Phillies had a lot of hope in their starting rotation carrying their team to at least some marginal success, but everyone outside of Nola has been a disappointment. Nola has an ERA of 3.02, and an xFIP of 3.51 while striking batters out at an incredibly high rate at almost 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His projections going forward are also quite optimistic, with steamer projecting a 3.6 ERA for the rest of the season. What’s interesting with Nola is that he manages to strike batters out at such a high rate, despite not having great velocity, with his fastball only averaging 92. He is very dependent on his changeup and curveball, which he throws at a very high rate. Nola will probably continue to be a very good pitcher this season.

Jeff Samardzija has been one of the harder pitchers to figure out this season. His peripheral stats have been terrific, but his ERA has consistently been pretty bad, at the moment, it is at 4.74. It’s pretty tough to figure out what is causing the stark difference between his ERA and peripheral stats, but I do think I’m comfortable saying that Samardzija is better than his ERA would indicate. Playing in AT&T Park can be tough for road teams to navigate, so I would feel pretty good taking the Giants as favorites in this game.

MLB Underdog of the day: Washington Nationals +108

The Nationals and the Padres are going to be playing in San Diego with Jhoulys Chacin and Edwin Jackson starting. The Padres have really just committed to starting their rebuild, even though they have been bad for a long time now. The Nationals meanwhile look like they are certainly going to make the playoffs, and of course have an opportunity to make a little bit of noise in the playoffs.

Jhoulys Chacin is going to be starting for the Padres. Chacin has actually been pretty good for the Padres this season, after struggling to keep a spot on the roster for the last couple seasons. He has an ERA of 4.07, and an xFIP of 4.36. These aren’t the most impressive numbers in the world to be sure, but at the very least, it looks like Chacin has found a place in the league, at a time when it was unclear if Chacin would be a starter for a major league team. But what concerns me Chacin is how bad the projections are for him for the rest of the season. ZiPS projects him to have a 4.79 ERA, which is at the very least troublesome. I’m just not sure if Chacin is going to continue to be good for the rest of the season.

Edwin Jackson is going to be starting for the Nationals in this game. It’s sort of surprising to me that Edwin Jackson is still in the MLB, as it seemed like he disappeared for a few seasons. Some view Jackson as something of a disappointment after being a top prospect, but he’s had a fairly successful career. He has 17 career WAR in fangraphs version of WAR. This season, Jackson has an ERA of 3.86, but his peripherals are pretty bad, with an xFIP of 5.18. I don’t feel confident that Jackson is going to be a good pitcher, but with the Nationals playing the Padres as underdogs, I think it’s a worthwhile value play.

MLB Over/Under of the day: New York Yankees/New York Mets Over 7.5

The Mets and the Yankees are going to be playing at the Mets home park with Steven Matz and Luis Severino starting. The Yankees look like they have a very strong possibility of getting the first wild card spot, but they have been struggling in the last month, especially as Aaron Judge has been a little bit disappointing since the break. The Mets meanwhile have essentially fallen apart this season, with almost their entire rotation getting injured this season.

Luis Severino has been one of the best starters in the American League this season. He has an ERA of 3.32, and an xFIP of 3.12, while he has been striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. It’s really tough for me to figure out what has changed for Severino, whose fastball suddenly looks like a really good pitch. It’s always had good velocity, but batters were always able to make good contact with it, and it seemed like pundits had essentially theorized that it was too straight of a pitch. But looking at his fastball this season, is like looking at it last season. I’m not a scout, so I’m not an expert on diagnosing mechanics, but the trajectory hasn’t been very different. I think Severino is going to continue to be a very good pitcher, but I question if he is as dominant as he’s looked this season.

Steven Matz has been a disappointing pitcher for the Mets this season, much like every other pitcher for the Mets. He has an ERA of 5.54, and an xFIP of 4.53 in 63 innings. What’s concerning about Matz is his loss in velocity. Matz has essentially never thrown a traditional fastball, and is generally reliant on his sinker, which this season is averaging 93.5, which is more than 1 mile per hour slower than last season. While that may sound like a small decrease, but that’s pretty significant for such a young pitcher. I’m not convinced that Matz is going to be a bad pitcher forever, but I don’t think that he’s going to rebound this season. I would feel pretty good taking the over in this game.

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Arizona at Houston (-130); Total: 9.5

We’ve seen money come in against the Houston Astros when they face aces. They’re not facing one on Thursday, but the market is still looking to fade the best team in the American League. While the Astros have the best record in the Junior Circuit, they certainly aren’t playing like a team in line for home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs.

Patrick Corbin and Mike Fiers will do battle tonight. Corbin is pretty much a league average pitcher. He’s got a 4.52 ERA with a 4.22 FIP and a 3.80 xFIP. Corbin’s command profile isn’t very exciting. He’s given up a 17.1 percent HR/FB% and a .351 BABIP against, so he’s been getting barreled far too often. His 133 strikeouts in 135.1 innings of work against 40 walks, however, are two main components of FIP and xFIP, hence the lower metrics there. Corbin is a really tough guy for me to gauge. He just shut out the Cubs over 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts. In his two previous starts, he allowed 14 runs, 10 earned, in nine innings against the Giants and the Cubs. He did strike out 10 Giants, but didn’t have much in the form of BABIP luck, which has been a problem throughout the season. Before those two starts, Corbin hadn’t given up more than three earned runs in a start since June 2.

Basically, there’s a lot of variance to Corbin’s performances because of his subpar command. If the homers he allows are solo shots and he pitches out of danger, he’s fine. There are obviously no guarantees about that. We have seen the Astros struggle recently in series finales and getaway day games, which may be anecdotally affecting the line. It is something that I’ve been watching, especially if they’re facing an above average pitcher in those games. I’m not sure I’d call Corbin that.

The honeymoon period for Mike Fiers may be over. The right-hander has a 4.36 ERA with a 5.52 FIP and a 4.57 xFIP on the year, but it has been a tale of two seasons with the worst of times and the best of times. Fiers is back to the worst of times. He’s allowed 17 runs over his last 16.1 innings of work and has allowed two home runs in each of those starts. From April 7 to May 25, Fiers posted a 5.21 ERA with a 7.68 FIP and a 4.88 xFIP. He had a 31 percent HR/FB% with 18 HR allowed in just 46.2 innings of work.

From May 30 to July 26, Fiers posted a 2.63 ERA with a 3.03 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP. He only allowed four home runs in 65 innings of work. Now, he’s had those three horrendous starts in August. Against a Diamondbacks lineup that has strafed right-handed pitching this season, this doesn’t appear to be the best of matchups for Fiers.

If I had to roll one way or another in this one, I’d look at the Diamondbacks. There’s some decent value to fade Fiers in this price and the Astros are not playing well right now.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-135); Total: 8.5

The value is mostly gone from this NL Central showdown in the Steel City if you were looking to play Pittsburgh. Fans drinking the swill that is Iron City Light will be on hand to watch Adam Wainwright square off with Jameson Taillon at PNC Park. Wainwright has a 4.87 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.26 xFIP on the season. His walk rate is up and his HR/FB% is also up a bit, but this is basically what Wainwright is at this stage of his career. He’s a league average starter. Wainwright turns 36 later this month and has dealt with a variety of injuries this season. He had some discomfort after his last start, but seems okay to make this one just six days later.

To be honest, I’m a little bit surprised at the speed and size of this line move. While Wainwright obviously isn’t what he used to be, he’s still kept his team in games for the most part. He’s allowed nine runs in a start twice to account for 18 of the 64 earned runs that he has allowed. Take out those starts and Wainwright has a 3.82 ERA. Obviously we can’t just magically erase starts, but those ERA killers need to be kept in the proper context. Since May 14, Wainwright has allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of his 15 starts.

Jameson Taillon has had a couple of those ERA killers lately. He now has a 4.50 ERA with a 3.37 FIP and a 3.65 xFIP in his 17 starts covering 92 innings. It has been a weird season for Taillon, who had his year interrupted by treatment for testicular cancer. Taillon’s K/BB metrics are great and his HR/FB% is pretty good. On the other hand, his command has clearly been a concern, considering he has a .361 BABIP against. Some of that is bad luck, but some of it is also bad location. Taillon allowed 18 runs, 17 earned, across his July 25 and August 1 starts. He’s bounced back nicely in his last two outings with quality starts and 15 strikeouts over 12.1 innings of work. Taillon’s two worst starts account for 17 of the 46 earned runs he has allowed, so he has a 3.05 ERA in his other 15 outings.

From a side standpoint, I think the Cardinals have a little bit of value with this big line move, but going against line moves in mid-August is tough to do. The really smart groups still having success for this season are the ones dictating the market while most wait on the start of football. You have to respect action like this.

I do like the under here at pitcher-friendly PNC Park. These two lineups have gone through stretches of impotence throughout the season and, as I’ve outlined, Taillon and Wainwright have been solid more often than not.

Chicago at Texas (-150); Total: 11

The White Sox suffered a crushing defeat last night at Chavez Ravine when it looked like they were going to scalp a win as a +300 dog. Well, that didn’t happen. Instead, it was a very early morning arrival in Texas, with two hours lost to the time change and a long night. With a win last night, I would have been very interested in backing the White Sox tonight. Now, I’m not so sure.

Reynaldo Lopez makes his second start for the White Sox of the season. Lopez was one of the key assets in the Adam Eaton deal with the Nationals. Lopez was strong at Triple-A with a 3.79 ERA, a 4.18 FIP, and a 3.85 xFIP. He struck out 131 in 121 innings of work. His walk rate was up a little bit, but that’s not a huge surprise with his profile. In his first start with the White Sox, he struck out six and walked three over six innings with two runs allowed on solo home runs. He threw over 100 pitches in that start and the White Sox are going to monitor his pitch counts going forward. He does have an extra day of rest between starts here, but it’s a good reminder to look mostly at first five innings lines with Lopez because the decimated White Sox bullpen is very, very bad.

It’s good to see Tyson Ross back after undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, but it’s not good to see his stats. Ross has a 7.11 ERA with a 5.77 FIP and a 6.03 xFIP. In his eight starts across 38 innings, Ross has allowed 32 runs, 30 earned, on 34 hits with a 29/25 K/BB ratio. His season didn’t start until June 16 and then he had another DL stint from July 23 to August 12. He came back from injury against Houston and got lucky to only allow three runs on four hits because he walked five over 5.2 innings of work.

If the White Sox are invested, they’re a good bet for the first five tonight. The problem is that we have absolutely no idea what their mindset will be. They likely got into Texas around 4 or 5 a.m. They suffered another brutal loss in a series full of L’s. Lopez more than likely traveled to Texas early in order to get a good night’s rest in preparation for his start, so, at the very least, he should be ready to go. I think this is a decent gamble, but I understand if the situational angle keeps you off of it.

Washington at San Diego (-115); Total: 8.5

When the market steams the Padres against the Nationals, you notice. That’s the case here tonight, as Edwin Jackson takes the mound for the Nationals and Jhoulys Chacin takes the hill for the Padres. EJax has some serious signs of regression in his profile with a 3.86 ERA, a 5.88 FIP, and a 5.19 xFIP, so that has something to do with the line move. He’s only worked 35 innings, so there’s some small sample size noise in there. Jackson has a below average strikeout rate and an average walk rate. What stands out is the 17.3 percent HR/FB%. He’s allowed nine dingers thus far.

While I’m not going to tell you that backing Edwin Jackson is a good long-term bet, I will say that he struggled in relief and has been kind of useful as a starter. He has one really bad start, three solid ones, and one average one, where the sequencing gods were asleep. I certainly understand the desire to fade him, but he hasn’t been as bad as it looks.

I’m a little bit surprised that no contenders wanted Jhoulys Chacin as rotation insurance. He has a 4.06 ERA with a 4.38 FIP and a 4.37 xFIP on the season. He’s got pretty average numbers across the board and is more or less an average pitcher. He’s done a good job of stranding runners and has induced a fair amount of weak ground ball contact. He’s another one of those guys with three really awful starts that account for 23 of his 62 earned runs. Another contributing factor to this move is that the Nationals made a cross-country trip after yesterday’s game against the Angels. The Nationals have a big cushion in the NL East and have no chance to catch the Dodgers for home field. They’re up 8.5 games on the Cubs for home field in that Division Series matchup. I think the expectation is that we look for spot plays against teams that don’t have a whole lot of incentive. This feels like one for Washington, especially with Jackson on the bump.

I won’t be invested in this game, but it is one of the more fascinating ones of the night from a handicapping standpoint.

Philadelphia at San Francisco (-115); Total: 7

Totals of seven are as rare as a solar eclipse sweeping all the way across the United States this season. We’ve actually got one on Thursday night with Aaron Nola up against Jeff Samardzija. Nola is on some kind of run right now. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last 10 starts. That run dates back to June 22. In that span, Nola has a 1.71 ERA with a 2.64 FIP and a 3.26 xFIP. He’s struck out 78 and walked just 19. He’s also got a .263 BABIP and a 90.2 percent LOB% because he’s been inducing so much weak contact. It has been some kind of run and he deserves a ton of credit for it. We’ve seen the market steam Nola into a favorite several times during this streak.

Unfortunately for the Phillies and the Nola backers, he faces another steam candidate in Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija has a 4.74 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 3.36 xFIP, so money comes in on him with the expectation of positive regression nearly every time he takes the mound. Samardzija has a spectacular strikeout-to-walk ratio, but command has been a problem for him. He’s got a 14.5 percent HR/FB%, which is a career worst, and he has a .324 BABIP against, which, also, is a career worst. This is what I like to call Michael Pineda Syndrome.

The market would back Pineda start after start last season and he never regressed towards his advanced metrics. The reason is because he had no command. Samardzija has the sterling K/BB numbers, but he still has to locate. He hasn’t done that this season.

One thing working in Samardzija’s favor in this start is that the Phillies look terrible lately. The Phillies are 4-11 over their last 15 games and just got trucked by the Padres by an 18-8 aggregate score over a three-game sweep. Philadelphia is already -36 in run differential this month. They look like a team that has punted on the season. They are 19-44 on the road. As great as Nola is, he can’t win the game 0-0. Fortunately, the Giants offense isn’t very good either. That’s why I’d still look to take the low under 7 total. As far as a side, I’ve got slightly more trust in the Giants, despite Samardzija’s command woes.

One more note, from the random stat department, the Phillies are 11-2 against the Braves this season, which means they are 32-73 against every other team that they have played. The Phillies are only +13 in run differential against the Braves in the head-to-head season series as well.

Yanks, Mets battle for NY
By: StatFox.com

The Yankees will be hoping to earn a huge victory over the Mets on Thursday.

The Yankees and Mets could not be in more different positions right now, as the Yankees are currently doing everything they can to make it to the postseason and the Mets are simply hoping to play the role of spoiler right now. The Yankees are currently trailing the Red Sox in the AL East, but they also have the best record amongst the teams competing for the wild card spots. But they also are not ready to stop fighting for the division, as this is a very winnable game for the Bronx Bombers and then they have a number of games coming up against the Sox. The Mets, meanwhile, are strictly hoping to do what they can to help the Yankees fall in the AL East standings. The matchup on the hill on Thursday features a nice pair of young starters, as RHP Luis Severino (9-5, 3.32 ERA, 166 K) is on the mound for the Yankees and LHP Steven Matz (2-6, 5.54 ERA, 44 K) will be giving it a go for the Mets. Both are capable of pitching absolute gems for their teams, so don’t be shocked if this one doesn’t have many runs.

Luis Severino was absolutely atrocious in his last trip to the mound, as he allowed eight earned runs on eight hits in 4.1 innings of work against the Red Sox on Aug. 12. Severino allowed two homers in that game, and he’ll need to make sure he keeps the ball down against the Mets in this one. Fortunately for both he and the Yankees, the righty had been on fire heading into that meeting with Boston. He had allowed one or fewer earned runs in each of his previous five outings, so he can probably chalk his last performance up to an unlucky day. Look for him to get back on track against a weaker Mets lineup in this one. As for the Yankees’ offense, 3B Todd Frazier is somebody to keep an eye on in this one. Frazier is 2-for-9 with two homers and three RBI against Steven Matz in his career, so he should be looking forward to facing the lefty in this one. He has not been performing well since getting traded to the Bronx, but perhaps he can get himself going on Thursday.

The Mets will be hoping for a solid performance from Steven Matz on Thursday, and it’s not hard to imagine him giving them just that. He was good in his last trip to the mound, as he allowed just two earned runs in 5.2 innings of work against the Phillies on Aug. 12. Matz did, however, strike only one batter out in that one, which is not like him. That has been a part of his game that has seemingly disappeared this season. He’ll need to start missing more bats moving forward. On offense, guys like OF Yoenis Cespedes and SS Amed Rosario are the names to watch out for here. Cespedes has remarkable power, and that is a good match against a power-throwing youngster like Severino. It wouldn’t be shocking if he were to take him yard in this one. Rosario, meanwhile, has shown exactly why he is one of the top prospects in baseball lately. He has a good presence at the plate and could have a big day on Thursday.