MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, May 27th, 2017

Dave's MLB Saturday - Day Games
By Dave Essler

Oakland/Yankees

I like the Yankees here at first glance. Manaea is a fly ball pitcher that's apparently been the beneficiary of pitching in the big park in Oakland. Add to that the fact that he's pitched through the sixth inning only once this season. Sabathia got some extra rest with a rainout, but of course we just don't know what to expect from him from one game to the next.

Texas/Toronto

The knee-jerk reaction is that we'll see a pitchers' duel between Darvish and Estrada, especially after Estrada's great game at Baltimore last week. But because of that game and his 115 pitches I will proceed with caution if we back him. Given Darvish's success against Toronto it's tough not to like Texas, at least for the first five innings.

Tigers/White Sox

Fulmer hasn't allowed more than three earned runs this season, and he's typically a ground ball pitcher, which usually makes me look at the "under" in his starts. With Detroits' bullpen, that could be a better first-five inning bet. Holland has thrown a lot of pitches in his last three starts, and usually I'd look to back him (or anyone) against his former team.

Seattle/Boston

Brian Johnson just isn't someone I want to back, but he's been solid at Pawtucket since that one early-season game. He keeps the ball in the park which is half the battle in Fenway or against a team like Seattle. Lawrence doesn't have a great pedigree, but if you look close he does have the ability to keep the ball down, so while people may be looking for runs here, I might look at the under since the total will be inflated, at least early (F5) since there's no familiarity here at all, giving (usually) the pitchers the early advantage.

Padres/Nationals

Quietly, the Padres have become an "over" team this season. Clearly with Strasburg on the mound against a LHP the Nationals are going to be expensive, and I'd caution people to take the plunge. Richard is a ground ball pitcher that shut out the Dodgers and held Arizona to one run, twice. Let's not forget that unless Strasburg goes really deep, the Nationals' bullpen isn't very good.

Reds/Phillies

I was all set to unload on the Phillies the other night when Arroyo was scheduled to pitch, prior to a rain out. I am probably going to again, and the over - I really don't care what the number is because the Phillies pen is equally as bad as Cincinnati's. That may be a good play if for no other reason than the fact that the Reds saw Eickhoff for the first time earlier this season.

Royals/Indians

I suppose the instinctive reaction would be to hop aboard the Indians train with Salazar pitching. But, he's having a terrible season and was roughed up by the Royals already this season. Often times the pitcher makes the adjustments the next time around, but I'm not sure I trust him to do that. I'm not sure which Vargas we're going to see. If it's the one that pitched the last two games against the Yankees then the Royals might be in trouble. If it's the earlier version, they've got a chance. I tend to think the former and that there are runs here, but the Indians pen clearly has an advantage, so perhaps a first-five look.

Arizona/Milwaukee

Sooner or later Grienke will lose a game, and with a bunch of 100+ pitch games lately one might think he's vulnerable on the road. The problem here is that none of the Brewers have seen him, making the home underdog a very tough sell. Anderson is a fly ball pitcher and in the wrong park for that, and the only thing he's got going for him is that Arizona hasn't seen much of him, but that's probably not enough to push me off the ledge here.

Angels/Marlins

My first thought here is the Angels since Ramirez has had four straight games with double-digit ground ball outs. However, he's also given up five home runs in his last three starts, so in truth he can go either way here. Not having a DH is clearly to his advantage. Nicolino is making only his third start after beating Atlanta (soundly) at home and getting hammered by the Dodgers (in LA). He hasn't shown himself worth betting on, and if it were any other team other than the unpredictable Angels, fading him would be easy. It still might be.

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Chicago Cubs (25-21) at LA Dodgers (28-20)

Scheduled Rotation: Arrieta (5-3) vs. Wood (5-0), Lackey (4-4) vs. McCarthy (4-1), Lester (3-2) vs. Kershaw (7-2)
Series Price: Dodgers -160, Cubs +135

Both these teams may end up in the National League Championship Series again like last season, but if you've been betting them every day your profits are in the minus. The Dodgers, eight games above .500, are -1.9 units on the season. The Cubs are four games above .500, but are -5.8 units.

They're the top two rated teams in the National League but aren't living up to expectations so far as we head into the final weekend of May. However, it's easily the most intriguing series of the weekend and Station Casinos has posted the Dodgers as short -160 favorites to take at least two of three at Dodger Stadium.

The World Series hangover for the Cubs appears to be coming to end. They've won three straight and thanks to the Brewers dropping five in a row and the Cardinals losing six of eight, the Cubs have finally reached first-place in the NL Central. They've gone 11-10 on the road and they'll find themselves underdogs in all three games over the weekend which closes out Sunday with a date against Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs are 4-14 in their last games as underdogs.

The Dodgers statistically look like the best team in baseball but they can't catch the first-place Rockies (MLB-best +15.7 units) or second-place Arizona (+11.7 units, second-best). Dodger Stadium is once again helping the home team have one of the best team ERA's in baseball and so far they're No. 1 at 3.37. They've also got 3B Justin Turner leading the majors with a .379 batting average. It's a tough lineup to face and they lead baseball with a +64 run differential.

Last season the Dodgers took a 2-1 lead in the NLCS, including a brilliant 1-0 win by Kershaw in Game 2, but the Cubs charged back to win the next three. The two teams met again in April with the Cubs taking two of three at Wrigley Field, a series that didn't feature Kershaw and did feature Jon Lester who isn't in the rotation this weekend.

The last four meetings have stayed 'under' the total and the run extends to eight of the past 11 meetings and 18 of the past 23. This season the Cubs have gone 28-16-2 to the 'over', which is the second best 'over' ratio in baseball behind the Mets (29-10-2).

The Dodgers are annually one of the best 'under' teams at home, but they're 13-12-1 to the 'over' this season while winning 18 of 26. Considering the pitching match-ups and how well the Dodgers play at home and the Cubs team rating sliding since the beginning of the season, -160 with the Dodgers to win the series appears cheap by about 20 cents.

Baltimore (25-20) at Houston (32-16)

Scheduled Rotation: Gausman (2-3) vs Musgrove (3-4), Miley (1-2) vs. Keuchel (7-0), Bundy (5-3) vs. Montgomery (2-3)
Series Price: Astros -260, Orioiles +215

Baltimore is an impressive 15-7 at home, but are just 10-13 on the road and currently ride a four game losing streak. Houston's +11.4 units of profit is the most in the American League. The 'under' has occurred in 13 of the past 19 meetings. When they met in almost the same weekend last season at Houston, the Astros pulled off the sweep and when they met in August the Astros took three of four at Camden Yards.

Texas (24-24) at Toronto (21-26)

Scheduled Rotation: Griffin (4-1) vs. Bolsinger (0-2), Darvish (5-2) vs. Estrada (3-2), Cashner (1-4) vs. Biagini (1-2)
Series Price: Blue Jays -160, Rangers +135

Toronto pulled off a 3-0 sweep against Texas in the American League Division Series last season and they've won seven of the past nine meetings. The Blue Jays are on a run right now of winning eight of 11 at home and keep note that they've won eight of their last 10 as a favorite. Following a 10-game winning streak, the Rangers have now lost four of their last five, including the Red Sox just completed three game sweep at Fenway Park. The biggest hope here is that we get Rougned Odor/Jose Bautista II.

Oakland (21-25) at NY Yankees (27-17)

Scheduled Rotation: Gravemand (2-2) vs. Tanaka (5-3), Manaea (2-3) vs. Sabathia (4-2), Triggs (5-3) vs. Pineda (5-2)
Series Price: Yankees -270

The Yankees are 15-7 at home while the A's are 6-15 on the road, which is part of the reason for such a high series price. Last season both teams were swept on the road. The A's won all three at Yankees Stadium in April and the Yankees returned the favor in May winning all four in Oakland. The A's are currently on a 16-6 'over' run.

Kansas City (19-27) at Cleveland (24-21)

Scheduled Rotation: Kennedy (0-4) vs. Clevinger (2-1), Vargas (5-3) vs. Salazar (3-4), Duffy (4-3) vs. Tomlin (2-6)
Series Price: Indians -275, Royals +230

The Royals get their top three starters on the mound this weekend, but the Royals have lost their last eight meetings in Cleveland. The two squads met in Kansas City earlier this month with the Indians taking two of three and all three stayed 'under' the number. The total is the theme to follow here as these are the two best 'under' teams in baseball. The Royals have lost six of their last nine, but the +270 to win the series is attractive just because of the KC starters.

Seattle (21-27) at Boston (25-21)

Scheduled Rotation: Gallardo (2-4) vs. Rodriguez (3-1), Lawrence (0-3) vs. Johnson (1-0), Bergman (1-2) vs. Porcello (3-5)
Series Price: Red Sox -270, Mariners +225

Over the total is the theme here with Boston going 'over' in 14 of its last 17 and the high side has gone 9-2-1 in the past 12 meetings with Seattle at Fenway Park. Boston comes in on a four game win streak while Seattle has lost five of its last six.

Tampa Bay (25-25) at Minnesota (25-18)

Scheduled Rotation: Archer (3-3) vs. Santiago (4-2), Odorizzi (3-2) vs. Mejia (1-1), Cobb (4-4) vs. Santana (7-2)
Series Price: Rays -115, Twins -105

The Twins (+7.7 units) have to be the least talked about first-place team in baseball. It's likely because everyone has them in their pool to fade first among the division leaders. But they're holding steady at the top while the rest of the division plays .500 or less ball. Minnesota has won six of its last seven, including its last four which ended with a home sweep over Baltimore. The Rays also aren't getting talked about much but their 25-25 record is impressive compared to preseason expectations. They come in winning six of their last nine, including the last five staying 'under.' However, the 'over' has been the play in this series with 11 of the past 12 meetings going high. The Twins are hot and they're an underdog at home in the series with their ace anchoring on Sunday? I'll bite for sure.

St. Louis (23-21) at Colorado (31-18)

Scheduled Rotation: Martinez (3-3) vs. Senatela (6-1), Wainwright (4-3) vs. Freeland (5-2), Lynn (4-2) vs. Marquez (3-2)
Series Price: Rockies -130, Cardinals +110

The Cardinals have a better record on the road (11-8 ) than they do at home (12-13) and are currently on a 10-2 road run with the two losses coming on the just completed series loss at Dodger Stadium. The Cards have lost six of their last eight overall. The Rockies big key to success this season has been jumping out their opponents in Game 1 of a series going 12-3. The Cards have gone 5-10 in those situations. The series price is cheap with the Rockies by 15 cents.

MLB Knowledge

National League

Reds @ Phillies
Arroyo is 0-2, 7.16 in his last three starts (over 7-2).

Eickhoff is 0-4, 7.27 in his last five starts; three of his last four starts went over.

Reds lost nine of last 13 games; eight of last 11 Cincy games went over the total. Philly is 2-10 in its last 12 games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.

Mets @ Pirates
Wheeler is 2-0, 2.12 in his last three starts (over 6-1-1).

Cole is 1-2, 3.41 in his last five starts (under 9-1).

New York lost three of last five games; over is 11-1-1 in their last 13 road games. Pirates won four of last six home games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

Padres @ Nationals
Richard is 1-1, 3.27 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his road starts.

Strasburg is 3-0, 3.55 in his last four starts (under 6-3).

San Diego won three of its last five games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven road games. Washington won four of its last fiver games; under is 5-1 in Nationals’ last six games.

Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Greinke is 5-0, 2.55 in his last six starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four.

Anderson is 0-1, 7.30 in his last five starts, all of which went over the total.

Arizona won 10 of last 11 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten road games. Milwaukee lost its last five games; over is 16-6 in their last 21 games at Miller Park.

Cardinals @ Rockies
Wainwright is 4-0, 3.86 in his last six starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven.

Freeland is 4-1, 3.41 in his last six starts (under 6-2).

St Louis lost six of last eight games; over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 road games. Colorado is 8-3 in its last 11 games; under is 8-3 in last 11 games at Coors Field.

Cubs @ Dodgers
Lackey is 3-1, 4.76 in his last five starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven.

McCarthy is 1-1, 5.94 in his last three starts, all of which went over.

Cubs won three of last four games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Los Angeles won eight of last ten home games; six of last seven Dodger games went over the total.

Braves @ Giants
Foltynewicz is 3-0, 3.18 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four.

Blach is 2-0, 2.57 in his last three starts (under 4-2).

Atlanta won five of last six road games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Giants lost last four games; under is 3-1 in their last four games.

American League

Rangers @ Blue Jays
Darvish is 4-0, 2.54 in his last six starts; under is 6-1 in their last seven.

Estrada is 2-0, 3.66 in his last three starts (under 5-4-1).

Texas lost five of last six games after a 10-game win streak; over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Toronto won its last four games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games.

A’s @ New York
Cotton was 1-2, 9.39 in his last three starts (over 3-0) before getting sent to AAA; he just came back.

Sabathia is 2-0, 1.54 in his last two starts, 1-0, 7.41 in three home outings- his last three starts overall stayed under the total.

Oakland is 3-8 in its last 11 road games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 road tilts. New York won three of last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

Royals @ Indians
Vargas is 0-2, 8.10 in his last two starts (under 7-2).

Salazar is 1-2, 7.50 in his last four starts, last three of which went over.

Royals are 4-6 in their last ten games; under is 9-5 in their last 14 games. Indians lost six of last eight home games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games.

Mariners @ Red Sox
Whalen is making his first ’17 start; he was 1-2, 6.57 in five starts for Atlanta LY, is 0-2, 4.09 in four AAA starts this year.

Johnson allowed four runs in five IP (97 PT) in his first ’17 start, April 18 at Toronto.

Mariners lost 11 of last 15 games; under is 5-1 in their last six road games. Boston won its last five games; over is 9-3 in last 12 Red Sox games.

Tigers @ White Sox
Farmer is making his first ’17 start; he is 0-6, 6.84 in 32 big league games (8 starts). He is 1-3, 4.12 in nine AAA starts this season. Fulmer 4-1, 2.79 in his last six starts (over 4-1-1).

Holland is 3-1, 3.79 in his last six starts, last five of which went over. Danish is making his first MLB start; he had three short relief stints LY. He is 1-3, 3.15 in eight AAA starts this season.

Tigers lost six of last eight games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. White Sox lost three of last four games; over is 11-4-1 in their last sixteen games.

Rays @ Twins
Odorizzi is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts (under 6-2).

Mejia 1-1, 5.40 in four starts this season (under 2-1-1).

Tampa Bay won seven of last ten games; their last six games stayed under. Minnesota won three of last five games; Twins’ last five games stayed under the total.

Orioles @ Astros
Miley is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his road starts.

Keuchel is 8-0. 1.98 in nine starts this year; he skipped his last start with a neck problem. Over is 3-1 in his last four starts.

Baltimore lost its last five games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine road games. Houston won four of its last five games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

Interleague

Angels @ Marlins
Ramirez is 2-2, 4.99 in his last five starts (under 5-4).

Worley allowed three runs in four IP (82 PT) in his first ’17 start, at Dodger Stadium.

Angels are 4-9 in last 13 road games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Miami is 5-15 in its last 20 games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Cin-Phil: Arroyo 5-4; Eickhoff 1-8
NY-Pitt: Wheeler 4-4; Cole 4-6
SD-Wsh: Richard 4-6; Strasburg 7-2
Az-Mil: Greinke 7-3; Anderson 4-5
StL-Col: Wainwright 5-4; Freeland 7-2
Chi-LA: Lackey 5-4; McCarthy 5-2
Atl-SF: Foltynewicz 3-5; Blach 2-4

American League
Tex-Tor: Darvish 7-3; Estrada 5-5
A’s-NY: Cotton 3-4; Sabathia 7-2
KC-Clev: Vargas 5-4; Salazar 4-5
Sea-Bos: Whalen 0-0; Johnson 1-0
Det-Chi: Farmer 0-0 Fulmer 6-3; Holland 5-4; Danish 0-0
TB-Minn: Odorizzi 4-4; Mejia 1-3
Balt-Hst: Miley 5-4; Keuchel 8-1

Interleague
LAA-Mia: Ramirez 5-3; Worley 0-1

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Cin-Phil: Arroyo 4-9; Eickhoff 2-9
NY-Pitt: Wheeler 3-8; Cole 1-10
SD-Wsh: Richard 2-10; Strasburg 1-9
Az-Mil: Greinke 0-10; Anderson 2-9
StL-Col: Wainwright 1-9; Freeland 2-9
Chi-LA: Lackey 6-9; McCarthy 1-7
Atl-SF: Foltynewicz 1-8; Blach 1-6

American League
Tex-Tor: Darvish 2-10; Estrada 3-10
A’s-NY: Cotton 4-7; Sabathia 3-9
KC-Clev: Vargas 1-9; Salazar 4-9
Sea-Bos: Whalen 0-0; Johnson 1-1
Det-Chi: Farmer 0-0 Fulmer 4-9; Holland 2-9; Danish 0-0
TB-Minn: Odorizzi 4-8; Mejia 2-4
Balt-Hst: Miley 3-8; Keuchel 2-9

Interleague
LAA-Mia: Ramirez 6-8; Worley 1-1

Umpires

National League
Cin-Phil: Under is 5-3 in last eight Danley games.
NY-Pitt: Underdogs are 4-4 (+$180) in Blaser games.
SD-Wsh: Underdogs won three of last five Estabrook games.
Az-Mil: Last three Gibson games stayed under the total.
StL-Col: Under is 3-1-1 in last five Tumpane games.
Chi-LA: Home team won four of last five HGibson games.
Atl-SF: Home team won four of last five Hoberg games.

American League
Tex-Tor: Underdogs won six of last eight West games.
A’s-NY: Four of last six Little games stayed under.
KC-Clev: Last eight BWelke games went over the total.
Sea-Bos: Over is 5-3 in last eight Dreckman games.
Det-Chi: Three of last four Lentz games went over.
TB-Minn: Favorites won last four Torres games.
Balt-Hst: Over is 7-2 in Muchlinski games this season.

Interleague

LAA-Mia: Four of last six Conroy games stayed under.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 24-11 AL, favorites -$57
AL @ NL– 25-24 AL, favorites +$499
Total: 49-35 AL, favorites +$442

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 18-20-1
AL @ NL: Over 29-18
Total: Over 47-38-1

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Rockies (5-1 past six games, 7-3 past 10 at home)

The Rockies stayed hot in a showdown with the Cardinals on Friday night, knocking around the St. Louis bullpen to run away to a 10-0 victory. Antonio Senzatela ran his record to 7-1 while lowering his ERA to 3.19, besting Carlos Martinez in a matchup between two potential All-Stars. Now it's Kyle Freeland's turn on Saturday. The Rockies are 6-1 in Freeland's past seven starts and they're 5-1 in their past six games against right-handed starting pitching. In addition, they're 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning record and 7-2 in their past nine at Coors Field against teams with a winning overall mark.

Coldest team Mariners (1-6 past seven games overall)

The Mariners have been hit by the injury bug this season and it is finally starting to catch up to them. They have dropped six of their past seven outings, although pitching hasn't been the problem. A lack of offense has done them in, as the M's are averaging just 1.3 runs scored game over the past seven outings. They hit rock bottom in a 3-0 shutout at the hands of Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox on Friday night. The M's are 1-7 over their past eight road games, 0-5 in their past five against the American League East and 2-8 in their past 10 games on Saturdays.

Hottest pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, Astros (7-0, 1.84 ERA)

The southpaw is making his way back from the 10-day disabled list after recovering from a neck injury. He looks to stay unbeaten against an Orioles team which has flatlined, losing five in a row while averaging just 2.2 runs per game during the unimpressive span. Keuchel is looking like the pitcher who won the American League Cy Young award in 2015 rather than the left-hander who fumbled his way to a 9-12 record and 4.55 ERA in 2016. The Astros are 16-5 in Keuchel's past 21 starts overall, 29-9 across his past 38 home outings and 4-1 in his past five assignments against teams with a winning overall record.

Coldest pitcher: Bronson Arroyo, Reds (3-4, 6.75 ERA)

Arroyo has coughed up 11 earned runs and 17 hits over his past two outings, both losses, and his ERA has shot up to 6.75 as a result. The Reds won Friday's series opener in Philadelphia, but they're still just 2-6 in their past eight road games. They're also 1-4 in Arroyo's past five outings against a team with a winning overall record and 2-6 in his past eight against teams with a losing overall mark. The good news for Arroyo is that the Reds have won four of the past five meetings, but they are also 8-21 in their past 29 trips to the City of Brotherly Love.

Biggest UNDER run: Yankees (5-0 past five games overall)

The Yankees fell to the Athletics 4-1 in Friday's series opener as injury replacement Sean Manaea had it going on. The Yankees are averaging just 2.8 runs per game over the past eight outings while yielding 2.8 runs per game over the past five contests. The under is 14-6-2 in the past 22 starts at home by CC Sabathia, 11-5-1 in the past 17 starts overall while going 9-3 in their past 12 games against American League West Division clubs. The under is also 4-0 in New York's past four against a team with a losing overall record.

Biggest OVER run: White Sox (7-3 past 10 games overall)

The Pale Hose have cracked out the big sticks over the past couple of weeks, averaging 5.93 runs per game over the past 15 outings. The 'over' is 10-4-1 during the impressive span. They have a doubleheader on tap for Saturday, including a meeting with Michael Fulmer at 2:10 p.m. ET. The over is 6-1 in Chicago's past seven against right-handed starters and 4-0-2 in their past six showings at U.S. Cellular Field. The over is 10-4-2 over the past 16 overall while rolling up an impressive 6-0-1 mark in Derek Holland's past seven showings.

Matchup to watch: Rockies vs. Cardinals

Many expected the Cardinals to be in the postseason picture, but not many predicted big things for the Rockies. Colorado has looked like a legitimate contender with outstanding pitching across the board. Are the Rockies turning the corner and showing staying power? Well, their 10-0 victory against the Cardinals certainly served notice to the rest of the league. St. Louis is 30-14 in the past 44 meetings between the two side. If they can beat Adam Wainwright it would really mean they're turning a corner. The Cards are 7-0 in Waino's past seven outings against the Rockies.

Betcha didn’t know: Atlanta has struggled this season, but Michael Foltynewicz has been a bright spot lately. Although he has a 3-4 record overall, he's posted an impressive 3.86 ERA Foltynewicz has won three straight starts to turn things around. He'll look to keep it up against the Giants, a team he is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in two career starts. His counterpart Ty Blach, a replacement for the injured Madison Bumgarner, has rattled off wins in two straight himself. The Braves have dropped nine of their past 14 games at AT&T Park, so it might be advantage Blach in his seventh start of the season.

Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-240) vs. Padres

Biggest public underdog: Reds (+135) at Phillies

Biggest line move: Tigers - Game 1 (-110 to -130) at White Sox