MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, October 13th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NY YANKEES (95 - 73) at HOUSTON (104 - 62) - 7:05 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 11-23 (-14.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 3-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday this season.
NY YANKEES are 50-44 (-6.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
NY YANKEES are 8-17 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 104-62 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 81-38 (+25.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 50-33 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 60-55 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 50-43 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 34-39 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-23 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-2 (+2.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)
MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
TANAKA is 0-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 8.86 and a WHIP of 1.701.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)
DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
KEUCHEL is 5-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.789.
His team's record is 5-2 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.3 units)
NY YANKEES vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
NY YANKEES @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
StatFox Super Situations
NY YANKEES at HOUSTON
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (HOUSTON) good team, outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season against opponent top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season 144-70 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% | 51.7 units ) 28-23 this year. ( 54.9% | -4.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | NY YANKEES at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 81-38 (+25.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. The average score was: HOUSTON (5.5) , OPPONENT (4.2)
MLB Playoffs
New York @ Houston
Astros are 5-2 against New York this season, winning 2 of 3 at home.
Tanaka is 2-0, 0.00 (14 IP) in his last two starts; Over is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts. New York is 6-9 in his road starts this season. Tanaka is 1-1, 1.50 in two career postseason starts. Astros scored 8 runs in 1.2 IP off Tanaka May 14 in NY, a 10-7 Houston win.
Keuchel is 3-1, 2.28 in his last four starts; four of his last five starts went over. He is 3-0, 2.29 in four postseason games (3 starts); Houston is 7-5 in his home starts. Keuchel allowed one (unearned run) in six IP at New York May 11, a 3-2 Astros win.
Armadillosports.com
Astros host Yankees in ALCS Game 1
By: StatFox.com
The American League Championship Series begins with the Yankees taking on the Astros in Houston on Friday.
New York trailed Cleveland 2-0 in the ALDS, but the team battled all the way back and ended up winning at Progressive Field in a dramatic Game 5. The Yankees have surprised pretty much everybody by making it to this point, but they feel like they aren’t done yet. They have some explosive bats in the lineup, a number of reliable starters and also the best bullpen in baseball. That’s a good recipe for success in the postseason. Houston, however, is a whole other animal. The Astros just might have the most dangerous lineup in Major League Baseball and they also have two legitimate studs in their rotation. This series should be a good one, but it was rather lopsided during the regular season. The Astros were the team that dominated this one, as they were 5-2 against the Yankees during the year. New York has, however, made significant improvements over the past few months, so the team won’t be too concerned with that. The starters in this Friday night matchup are going to be RHP Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA, 194 K) for the Yankees and LHP Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA, 125 K) for the Astros. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that New York is 32-15 against the money line after two straight games without an error this season.
The Yankees have a chance to make it to the World Series, which didn’t seem possible when they were down two games against the Indians last series. They are, however, hot at the right time and should be feeling incredible coming into this series. They also have the right guy on the mound on Friday, as Tanaka has looked like his former self as of late. Over his past two starts, Tanaka has allowed no earned runs in 14.0 innings of work. He struck out 22 batters over those two starts, and one of those dominant outings came against the Indians last series. The biggest difference for the righty is that his splitter is now insanely effective once again. It was absolutely unhittable against the Indians last game and it will need to be working against Houston on Friday. On offense, the two guys that stepped it up last series were OF Brett Gardner and SS Didi Gregorius. It’d be big if they can come up with some big hits here, but New York will also need OF Aaron Judge and C Gary Sanchez to show up in this series. Both superstars were miserable against Cleveland, but the Yankees can’t afford for them to not show up here.
Dallas Keuchel will be starting for the Astros on Friday and the lefty pitched well in his only appearance against the Red Sox last series. He allowed just one earned run in 5.2 innings of work and struck out seven batters in that one. If he brings the same stuff against the Yankees then the Astros will have a very good chance of winning on Friday. It’s worth noting that in Keuchel’s only start against the Yankees this season, the lefty struckout nine batters in six shutout innings. He has had New York’s number over the past few seasons and will be looking forward to facing this team here. As for the Houston offense, the team will be excited to see Tanaka on the mound on Friday. The Astros have hit the righty extremely hard in his career, but nobody has tormented Tanaka like SS Carlos Correa has. Correa is 5-for-10 with two homers and five RBI against Tanaka and it would not be surprising if he were to go yard here. The rest of the team has combined for five homers against Tanaka, too. So it really can be anybody that steps up here.
Friday's ALCS Betting Preview: Yankees at Astros
Covers.com
New York Yankees at Houston Astros ( -160, 8 )
The New York Yankees already stared down four elimination games in the postseason and knocked off the American League's top seed with a Game 5 victory over the Cleveland Indians in the AL Division Series on Wednesday, and things are not getting any easier. The Yankees will try to avoid falling into another quick hole when they visit the Houston Astros for Game 1 of the AL Championship Series on Friday night.
New York's hero in Game 5 of the ALDS turned out to be shortstop Didi Gregorius, who homered twice off probable AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber and went 3-for-4 in the clinching game after going 1-for-13 in the first four games of the series. "Now that I'm here, being in this unbelievable, unbelievable organization, everything, all the history and everything that's been here with the team, and guys are helping each other, backing each other up, everybody is protecting each other, it's the best thing because everybody is together and the team is really united," Gregorius told reporters. The Yankees (241) were the only team in the AL to hit more home runs in the regular season than the Astros (238), who have been sitting around since polishing off a four-game victory over the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS on Monday and are happy to hold homefield advantage over New York. "The Indians won over 100 games and had the best record in the American League, but I don't think that means anything," Houston shortstop Carlos Correa told MLB.com. "It doesn't mean they're the toughest opponent. The Yanks are tough, as well, as they just proved, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to beat the team with the best record in the AL. That's huge for them. They bring momentum into the series. It's just good to start at home."
INJURY REPORT:
Yankees - SP L. Cessa (Out For Season, Ribs), SP M. Pineda (Out For Season, Elbow).
Astros - CF J. Marisnick (Out For Season, Thumb), SP D. Paulino (Out For Season, Suspension), RP J. Gustave (Out For Season, Elbow).
PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 1.59)
Tanaka gets the Game 1 nod after putting together the best start for New York in the ALDS - a seven-inning effort in Game 3 in which he scattered three hits and struck out seven without allowing a run. The Japan native is enjoying a string of 14 consecutive scoreless frames going back to the regular season and owns 22 strikeouts in that span. Tanaka suffered through his worst start of the season against Houston on May 14, when he was roughed up for eight runs and seven hits - four homers - in 1 2/3 innings.
Keuchel gets the Game 1 nod after Justin Verlander was used for four innings of relief in the clinching game of the ALDS in Boston. The 29-year-old Keuchel started Game 2 of the ALDS and breezed through 5 2/3 frames, striking out seven while allowing one run, to make it four starts in a row surrendering two or fewer runs going back to the regular season. Keuchel is 5-2 with a 1.24 ERA in seven career starts against New York, including six scoreless innings in the 2015 wild card game at Yankee Stadium.
TRENDS:
* Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games.
* Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
* Astros are 5-1 in Keuchel's last 6 starts vs. American League East.
* Over is 5-0 in Tanaka's last 5 road starts.
* Under is 6-0 in Astros' last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorite Astros at a rate of 70 percent and the Over is picking up 70 percent of the totals action.
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
New York at Houston (-165); Total: 8
I am extremely curious to see what happens in tonight’s game between Masahiro Tanaka and Dallas Keuchel. As I mentioned in my full series preview, the Yankees catch a much better matchup for their offense in this series. Even though Houston’s rotation posted really good strikeout rates over the course of the year, Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton didn’t miss many bats in the Red Sox series and Dallas Keuchel is the first pitch-to-contact starter that the Yankees have seen in these playoffs.
That’s a big reason why this line is moving down. It opened -185, which is about where the series price opened, but has been bet down into the -165 range. The move down makes a lot of sense. The Yankees have the better bullpen and if Masahiro Tanaka looks as good as he did in the second half or as good as he did in Game 3 against the Indians, they may have the starting pitcher advantage as well.
Tanaka is going to be the most scrutinized player in this game and probably in this series. On the surface, he looks like an awful matchup against Houston with his 4.74 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and extremely high 21.2 percent HR/FB%. A lot of people will also point to his ghastly home/road splits, as he allowed a .289/.346/.529 slash on the road with a .368 wOBA against. His ERA was more than double on the road at 6.48 when compared to a 3.22 home mark. He also got absolutely rocked in his lone start against Houston with eight runs allowed in 1.2 innings of work, including four home runs.
Even with this season’s terrible, awful, no-good road performance, this difference between Tanaka’s numbers at home and on the road in his career are 29 points of batting average, 29 points of OBP, and just 13 points of SLG. His home wOBA against is .287 compared to .305 at home. His ERA is now 3.85 on the road compared to 3.29 at home. His home FIP is 3.71 compared to a road FIP of 3.78. Basically, he’s mostly the same pitcher on the road, with a little bit worse numbers. It isn’t anything significant and wasn’t until this season. I wouldn’t read too much into this one-year sample size.
Dallas Keuchel was limited to 145.2 innings of work, but it was good to see him bounce back from a tough 2016 campaign. After Keuchel threw a career-high 232 innings in 2015 plus some playoff appearances, he scuffled in 2016 with a 4.55 ERA. That was largely based on LOB% variance, since his 3.87 FIP and 3.53 xFIP were just fine. This season, Keuchel posted a 2.90 ERA with a 3.79 FIP and a 3.32 xFIP. In an era when hitters are going crazy about launch angles, Keuchel has a 66.8 percent GB%, so he’s keeping the ball on the ground and that forces teams to string hits together to score runs. That isn’t the preferred method of scoring in MLB anymore. Lefties only hit .144/.190/.245 off of Keuchel, while righties hit .236/.307/.359, so we’ll have to see how Joe Girardi sets up his lineup, particularly the bottom of the order. Keuchel only had a 10.1 percent K%-BB% against righties, while he had a 26.5 percent K%-BB% against lefties, so this will probably come down to the sequencing of who is up and in what situation, so, basically, like any MLB playoff game.
When you’ve got a situation like this, you always look at the dog. That’s just how the MLB playoffs are. You can’t even lay it with aces in this postseason because many of them have struggled. The Yankees also have the superior bullpen. It has only gotten one day off between Game 5 and this Game 1, so we’ll have to watch for some signs of wear and fatigue as the series gets deeper. I’d start with a Yankees position and see if I can freeroll the game with live in-game wagering. Honestly, that’s how I’d approach every game in this series. Start with an underdog position and see if you get a chance to buy out or let it ride if it starts out nicely. More often than not, that will mean a starting bet on the Yankees. Given that they have the better bullpen on paper, that isn’t a bad approach at all.